基于多情景分析的中国建设用地总量控制目标选择

2014-07-31 01:03王博姜等
中国人口·资源与环境 2014年3期
关键词:生态安全粮食安全经济发展

王博姜等

摘要建设用地总量控制目标的选择关系到土地利用规划与土地宏观调控的科学性,单一目标导向的建设用地规模预测具有明显的局限性。基于国家土地宏观调控需要,本文统筹考虑经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全3类基本用地需求,构建建设用地总量控制的多情景分析框架,运用多元回归分析、碳平衡分析等方法构建土地基本需求模型,结合国家发展战略与目标设定模型参数,分析预测不同情景下2020年中国建设用地总量的变化数量及影响。经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的土地需求可以协调并基本得到满足。情景分析表明,中国远期建设用地供给形势主要取决于经济发展方式转变的深度。如果经济发展方式转变滞后,2020年以后中国经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的用地冲突将难以调和;如果经济发展方式发生显著进步,土地资源可以满足3类基本需求,为经济社会持续发展提供资源支撑。在现有发展阶段,中国应基于粮食安全和生态安全,实行更加有力的建设用地总量倒逼机制,推进经济发展方式转变。同时,建设用地多情景分析框架能够反向检验不同发展战略目标设定的合理性,综合分析建设用地扩张的影响及潜力,可以应用于国家层面土地调控与规划管理实践。

关键词经济发展;粮食安全;生态安全;建设用地扩张;多情景分析

中图分类号F301.2文献标识码A文章编号1002-2104(2014)03-0069-08doi:103969/jissn1002-2104201403011

人多地少的基本国情和快速工业化、城市化不断加大中国土地资源管理压力,通过国家和地方规划引导土地的部门间再配置(建设用地扩张)具有重要意义[1]。但已有方法主要是以单一目标为导向的模拟预测,主要适用于省以下地区。根据公共物品、搭便车等经济理论,粮食安全、生态安全这类“产品”只可能在国家层面土地利用管理中得到最充分的体现,同时也增加了国家级规划目标制定的复杂性与难度。鉴于此,本研究基于国家土地宏观调控的需要,从经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全3类基本的用地需求出发,构建建设用地总量控制多情景分析框架,整合土地需求预测方法,分析2020年可能出现的土地利用格局、冲突及影响,解析中国建设用地总量控制目标与相应的管理政策需求。

1建设用地总量控制的多情景分析框架

科学制定国家建设用地总量目标,首先需要理清经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全3类基本需求对应的土地利用类型以及彼此之间的关系

理论上,经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全之间既有矛盾冲突,也存在相互促进的作用。但现实中,不同土地基本需求之间的矛盾冲突更加显著,并集中体现在土地利用的变化过程中。建设用地对经济快速增长具有显著贡献[21],经济发展也是建设用地扩张的主要驱动力[22],建设用地扩张成为快速工业化、城市化时期最显著的土地利用

王博等:基于多情景分析的中国建设用地总量控制目标选择中国人口·资源与环境2014年第3期现象。粮食安全的核心是保持适度的粮食自给率,而政策上可控的变量——粮食总产量长期内主要取决于本国的耕地面积、粮食播种面积和单位面积粮食产量。由于建设用地增量来源于农用地占用和未利用地开发,其中农用地占用约70%,建设用地扩张对耕地面积和粮食安全产生显著影响。生态安全是指生态系统的健康和完整情况,根据Costanza和冉圣宏等研究成果[23-24],建设用地的生态服务价值小,生态安全主要涉及林地、草地等具有基础性生态服务功能土地的保护。建设用地扩张和粮食安全压力下耕地面积的变化(新垦耕地的增加与农业内部结构调整)都会影响到生态安全的水平。可见,3类基本土地需求之间有着紧密的内在联系,建设用地总量控制目标的选择应该考虑到可能的各种情形。

根据3类基本土地需求之间的主导关系,构建快速工业化、城市化阶段建设用地总量控制多情景分析框架及思路(见表1):①依据经济发展(A)、粮食安全(B)、生态安全(C)土地需求的优先顺序,确定6个基本分析情景(表1);②结合经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的不同目标参数,扩展分析情景(假如3类基本需求分别对应j、m、r个不同的具体目标,扩展分析情景的个数为6·j·m·r);③应用经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的土地需求预测模型,依次分析不同情景下高优先级、中优先级需求的用地面积;④假设土地总面积不变,采用“剩余法”计算低优先级需求的“可用”土地面积,并与采用需求预测模型估算的“理想”用地面积进行比较;⑤如果低优先级需求的“可用”土地面积超过“理想”用地面积,表明该情景中3类基本需求得到有效协调,情景具有可行性,否则表明有基本需求无法得到满足,需重新调整需求优先顺序或具体的单项目标。在进行实际分析时,可对分析的内容进行简化调整。例如,由于未利用地中湿地、水体具有重要基础性生态功能,且建设开发难度大、成本高[25],借鉴已有研究[26],假设未利用地面积相对稳定,计算时剔除其生态效用,将分析的重点集中于包括居民点及独立工矿用地、交通运输用地在内的“建设用地”和耕地、林地、园地、草地等构成的“生态用地”。2008年,中国耕地、园地、林地、牧草地、居民点及独立工矿用地首要保证j目标下的建设用地面积;其次考虑粮食安全,主要满足m目标下的耕地面积;最后考虑生态安全r目标下的生态用地面积IIAj→Cr→Bm优先考虑经济发展,首要保证j目标下的建设用地面积;其次考虑生态安全,主要满足r目标下的生态用地面积;最后考虑粮食安全m目标下的耕地面积IIIBm→Aj→Cr优先考虑粮食安全,首要保证m目标下的耕地面积;其次考虑经济发展,主要满足j目标下的建设用地面积;最后考虑生态安全r目标下的生态用地面积IVBm→Cr→Aj优先考虑粮食安全,首要保证m目标下的耕地面积;其次考虑生态安全,主要满足r目标下的生态用地面积;最后考虑经济发展j目标下的建设用地面积VCr→Aj→Bm优先考虑生态安全,首要保证r目标下的生态用地面积;其次考虑经济发展,主要满足j目标下的建设用地面积;最后考虑粮食安全m目标下的耕地面积VICr→Bm→Aj优先考虑生态安全,首要保证r目标下的生态用地面积;其次考虑粮食安全,主要满足m目标下的耕地面积;最后考虑经济发展j目标下的建设用地面积2土地基本需求预测模型与参数设置

在国内外已有研究基础上,构建经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全土地需求预测分析模型,并结合中国发展经验与2020年经济社会发展目标设定相关参数。

2.1数据来源与说明

本文研究范围为中国大陆31个省(直辖市、自治区)。1990-2008年分省(直辖市、自治区)GDP、三次产业比例、总人口数根据历年《中国统计年鉴》整理得到,经济数据按2008年可比价进行修正。2008年分省(直辖市、自治区)粮食单产、复种指数、粮食播种面积、耕地面积来自当年《中国统计年鉴2008》。建设用地面积根据历年《中国国土资源统计年鉴》、《国土资源综合统计年报》整理得到。2005年中国二氧化碳排放总量数据来自《国际统计年鉴2009》。

2.2经济发展的建设用地需求预测

国内外学者对建设用地扩张进行了大量实证研究,发现经济因素和人口因素是驱动建设用地扩张最主要的动力[27-30],而与经济质量相关的产业结构也是重要因素[31]。2.4生态安全的用地需求预测

随着经济发展水平上升,生态安全的重要性愈发受到重视。大多数生态功能难以准确计量[37],参考相关研究[38],依据“木桶法则”和“最小因子定律”,以无法替代、不能交易、数量稀缺作为测算基础和依据,选择以生态用地的气体调节功能为切入点,通过碳平衡方法来推算生态用地需求。土地生态系统碳收支过程分为两类:人类活动引起的释碳过程和生态用地的固碳过程。

3中国建设用地扩张多情景分析结果

选择对经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的土地需求影响较大的参数,设置不同目标方案(见表4),扩展得到本文重点分析的48个情景。

按照不同情景中土地基本需求的优先顺序,选择相应的模型进行模拟分析。其中,基于经济发展用地需求通过建设用地驱动力模型进行模拟,并结合历年预测值与原始值的误差进行修正。基于粮食安全与生态安全的用地规模预测都涉及耕地面积,当两个目标处于不同优先级时,根据不同情况对方法进行改进:当粮食安全相对生态安全处于较高优先级时,首先计算保障粮食安全的耕地数量,将其代入生态安全模型中,减去其对应的固碳量,再计算满足生态安全需要的其他生态用地规模;当生态安全相对粮食安全处于较高优先级时,由于不同生态用地的固碳能力只与其单位面积净生产量有关,不同生态用地类型单位面积净生产量值一定,根据不同类型生态用地的单位面积净生产量比例将不同类型的生态用地折算成同一种生态用地。为便于测算,在计算生态用地规模时以林地为标准生态用地,将各类用地通过折算系数进行统一。其中,耕地、园地、林地、草地与湿地的折算系数

综合上述分析可以看出,中国土地供需形势非常严峻。如果经济发展方式转变滞后,到2020年经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的用地冲突将难以调和。通过减小经济发展对生态环境的影响,提高耕地利用水平和产出效益,中国才有可能实现可持续的发展。

4结论与讨论

本文统筹考虑经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全3类基本土地需求,构建了建设用地扩张的多情景分析框架,根据国家公布的发展战略与目标,设置相应的模型参数,预测2020年不同情景下建设用地扩张的空间与可行性。该分析框架一方面可以反向检验不同发展战略设定的合理性,另一方面可以基于国家需求更加科学地选择建设用地控制目标。通过多元回归模型、粮食需求倒算、碳平衡、情景分析等多种方法的综合应用,预测得到可行的24个情景及对应建设用地面积。总体上,国家确定的2020年建设用地控制目标既能够满足工业化、城市化发展需求,同时也基本保障了粮食安全、生态安全的用地需求。但是,如果经济发展方式转变滞后,经济发展对生态环境的负面影响不能显著降低,单位耕地粮食产量无法进一步大幅提升,2020年以后中国将面临更加严峻的土地资源供给问题。即使在较为现实的情景中,2020年以后建设用地进一步扩张的空间也十分有限。中国必须坚持“最严格”的土地保护制度,制定更加有效的基于粮食安全和生态保护的建设用地总量倒逼机制,才能保证长期的持续发展能力与发展活力。

需要说明的是,本文仅是国家土地利用多情景分析框架的一个初步尝试,还需进一步加强分析框架的应用与检验。一是结合国内外发展经验,更加科学地选择、设定各类基本土地需求的预测分析模型。建设用地需求量的预测不仅需要重点考虑GDP、人口数量、产业结构,可能还需要更加充分地反映发展阶段与增长方式的影响;粮食安全用地需求的预测可能还需要考虑更加多样化的粮食单产增长率、耕地复种指数、粮食播种面积比例等情景。二是结合主体功能分区,将国家层面的情景分析与区域(地区)层面的分析相结合,增强情景方案的现实性,发现不同区域土地基本需求冲突水平的差异以及地区分工对缓解土地供需矛盾的贡献。

(编辑:王爱萍)

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[34]姚鑫,杨桂山,万荣荣.昆山市耕地变化和粮食安全研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,(4): 148-152.[Yao Xin,Yang Guishan,Wan Rongrong.Analysis on Farmland Change and Grain Security of Kunshan[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2010,(4): 148-152.]

[35]陈江龙,曲福田.农地非农化与粮食安全:理论与实证分析[J].南京农业大学学报,2006,(2): 103-107.[Chen Jianglong,Qu Futian.Land Conversion and Food Security: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Analysis [J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University,2006,(2): 103-107.]

[36]国家发展和改革委员会.国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020)[R].2008.[National Development and Reform Commission. The Longterm Planning Framework for the National Food Security (2008-2020)[R].2008.]

[37]王伟,陆健健. 生态系统服务功能分类与价值评估探讨[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(11):1314-1316.[Wang Wei,Lu Jianjian.An Approach on Ecosystem Services Classification and Valuation[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2005,24(11):1314-1316.]

[38]张颖,王群,李边疆,等.应用碳氧平衡法测算生态用地需求量实证研究[J].中国土地科学, 2007,21(6):23-28.[Zhang Ying,Wang Qun,Li Bianjiang,et al.Study on Forecasting Ecological Land Demand with CarbonOxygen Balance Method[J].China Land Science,2007,21(6):23-28.]

[39]黄敏,廖为明,王立国,等.基于KAYA公式的低碳经济模型构建与运用:以江西省为例[J].生态经济,2010,(12):51-55.[Huang Min,Liao Weiming,Wang Liguo,et al.Construction and Use of the LowCarbon Economy Model Based on KAYA Model:a Case of Jiangxi Province[J].Ecological Economic, 2010,(12):51-55.]

[40]Fang J Y,Guo Z D,Piao S L,et al. Terrestrial Vegetation Carbon Sinks in China,1981-2000[J].Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences,2007,50(9): 1341-1350.

[41]曲艺,舒帮荣,欧名豪,等.基于生态用地约束的土地利用数量结构优化[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(1):155-161.[Qu Yi,Shu Bangrong,Ou Minghao,et al.Optimization of Land Use Quantity Structure Based on Ecological Land Constraints[J].China Population Resources and Environment.2013,23(1): 155-161.]

[42]李边疆.土地利用与生态环境关系研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2007. [Li Bianjiang. Study on the Relationship Between Land Use and Ecoenvironment[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Agricultural University, 2007.]

[43]方精云,刘国华,徐嵩龄.我国森林植被的生物量和净生产量[J].生态学报,1996,(5):497-508.[Fang Jingyun,Liu Guohua,Xu Songlin.Biomass and Net Production of Forest Vegetation in China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,1996,(5):497-508.]

[44]朴世龙,方精云,贺金生,等.中国草地植被生物量及其空间分布格局[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):491-498.[Bu Shilong,Fang Jingyun,He Jinsheng,et al.Spatial Distribution of Grassland Biomass in China[J].Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2004,28(4):491-498.]

[45]刘子刚,张坤民.湿地生态系统碳储存功能及其价值研究[J].环境保护,2002,(9):31-33.[Liu Zigang, Zhang Kunmin.Study on Carbon Stock Function and Its Value in Wetland Ecosystem[J].Environmental Protection,2002,(9):31-33.]

[46]IPCC.Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change(Report of Working Group I)[R].New York: Cambridge University Press,1996.

[47]牛振国,张海英,王显威,等.1978-2008年中国湿地类型变化[J].科学通报, 2012,57(16):1400-1411. [Niu Zhenguo,Zhang Haiying,Wang Xianwei,et al.The changes of China Wetland type from 1978 to 2008[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(16):1400-1411.]

AbstractScientifically forecasting the quantity of construction land expansion decides the feasibility and effectiveness of land use planning and land macrocontrol. Single objective oriented forecast of construction land expansion has significant limitations. This study systematically considers three main land use objectives, including construction land used for achieving economic development, cultivated land for food security, and ecological land for ecological security. Scenario analysis is used to predict the quantity of construction land expansion under different scenarios (defined based on parameters collected from national development strategies) in 2020, in which, multiple regression analysis and carbon balance analysis methods are applied to predict demands for construction land, cultivated land and ecological land. Results show that land resources cannot meet with the three main land use objectives at the same time when per unit GDP carbon emissions in 2020 decreases by 40% compared to that in 2005. Land demands for economic development, food security and ecological security can be coordinated and satisfied when the quantity of construction land is between 3 305.75×104 hm2 and 3 325.10×104 hm2 in 2020. Scenario analysis illustrates that the longterm supply of construction land mainly depends on the degree of transformation of economic development mode. Land use conflicts among economic development, food security and ecological security would be difficult to reconcile if the transformation of economic development mode is lag behind. Land resources can satisfy all three types of land use objectives and support sustainable development if the transformation of economic development mode makes significant progress. In the current stage of economic development, to achieve food security and ecological security, China should apply more powerful mechanisms to control construction land expansion and therefore promote the transformation of economic development mode. Scenario analysis method can also be used to examine the feasibility of different strategic targets, analyze the potential and effects of construction land expansion, and therefore can be applied to national level land management practices, such as land control and land use planning.

Key wordseconomic development; food security; ecological security; construction land expansion; scenario analysis

[36]国家发展和改革委员会.国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020)[R].2008.[National Development and Reform Commission. The Longterm Planning Framework for the National Food Security (2008-2020)[R].2008.]

[37]王伟,陆健健. 生态系统服务功能分类与价值评估探讨[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(11):1314-1316.[Wang Wei,Lu Jianjian.An Approach on Ecosystem Services Classification and Valuation[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2005,24(11):1314-1316.]

[38]张颖,王群,李边疆,等.应用碳氧平衡法测算生态用地需求量实证研究[J].中国土地科学, 2007,21(6):23-28.[Zhang Ying,Wang Qun,Li Bianjiang,et al.Study on Forecasting Ecological Land Demand with CarbonOxygen Balance Method[J].China Land Science,2007,21(6):23-28.]

[39]黄敏,廖为明,王立国,等.基于KAYA公式的低碳经济模型构建与运用:以江西省为例[J].生态经济,2010,(12):51-55.[Huang Min,Liao Weiming,Wang Liguo,et al.Construction and Use of the LowCarbon Economy Model Based on KAYA Model:a Case of Jiangxi Province[J].Ecological Economic, 2010,(12):51-55.]

[40]Fang J Y,Guo Z D,Piao S L,et al. Terrestrial Vegetation Carbon Sinks in China,1981-2000[J].Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences,2007,50(9): 1341-1350.

[41]曲艺,舒帮荣,欧名豪,等.基于生态用地约束的土地利用数量结构优化[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(1):155-161.[Qu Yi,Shu Bangrong,Ou Minghao,et al.Optimization of Land Use Quantity Structure Based on Ecological Land Constraints[J].China Population Resources and Environment.2013,23(1): 155-161.]

[42]李边疆.土地利用与生态环境关系研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2007. [Li Bianjiang. Study on the Relationship Between Land Use and Ecoenvironment[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Agricultural University, 2007.]

[43]方精云,刘国华,徐嵩龄.我国森林植被的生物量和净生产量[J].生态学报,1996,(5):497-508.[Fang Jingyun,Liu Guohua,Xu Songlin.Biomass and Net Production of Forest Vegetation in China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,1996,(5):497-508.]

[44]朴世龙,方精云,贺金生,等.中国草地植被生物量及其空间分布格局[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):491-498.[Bu Shilong,Fang Jingyun,He Jinsheng,et al.Spatial Distribution of Grassland Biomass in China[J].Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2004,28(4):491-498.]

[45]刘子刚,张坤民.湿地生态系统碳储存功能及其价值研究[J].环境保护,2002,(9):31-33.[Liu Zigang, Zhang Kunmin.Study on Carbon Stock Function and Its Value in Wetland Ecosystem[J].Environmental Protection,2002,(9):31-33.]

[46]IPCC.Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change(Report of Working Group I)[R].New York: Cambridge University Press,1996.

[47]牛振国,张海英,王显威,等.1978-2008年中国湿地类型变化[J].科学通报, 2012,57(16):1400-1411. [Niu Zhenguo,Zhang Haiying,Wang Xianwei,et al.The changes of China Wetland type from 1978 to 2008[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(16):1400-1411.]

AbstractScientifically forecasting the quantity of construction land expansion decides the feasibility and effectiveness of land use planning and land macrocontrol. Single objective oriented forecast of construction land expansion has significant limitations. This study systematically considers three main land use objectives, including construction land used for achieving economic development, cultivated land for food security, and ecological land for ecological security. Scenario analysis is used to predict the quantity of construction land expansion under different scenarios (defined based on parameters collected from national development strategies) in 2020, in which, multiple regression analysis and carbon balance analysis methods are applied to predict demands for construction land, cultivated land and ecological land. Results show that land resources cannot meet with the three main land use objectives at the same time when per unit GDP carbon emissions in 2020 decreases by 40% compared to that in 2005. Land demands for economic development, food security and ecological security can be coordinated and satisfied when the quantity of construction land is between 3 305.75×104 hm2 and 3 325.10×104 hm2 in 2020. Scenario analysis illustrates that the longterm supply of construction land mainly depends on the degree of transformation of economic development mode. Land use conflicts among economic development, food security and ecological security would be difficult to reconcile if the transformation of economic development mode is lag behind. Land resources can satisfy all three types of land use objectives and support sustainable development if the transformation of economic development mode makes significant progress. In the current stage of economic development, to achieve food security and ecological security, China should apply more powerful mechanisms to control construction land expansion and therefore promote the transformation of economic development mode. Scenario analysis method can also be used to examine the feasibility of different strategic targets, analyze the potential and effects of construction land expansion, and therefore can be applied to national level land management practices, such as land control and land use planning.

Key wordseconomic development; food security; ecological security; construction land expansion; scenario analysis

[36]国家发展和改革委员会.国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020)[R].2008.[National Development and Reform Commission. The Longterm Planning Framework for the National Food Security (2008-2020)[R].2008.]

[37]王伟,陆健健. 生态系统服务功能分类与价值评估探讨[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(11):1314-1316.[Wang Wei,Lu Jianjian.An Approach on Ecosystem Services Classification and Valuation[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2005,24(11):1314-1316.]

[38]张颖,王群,李边疆,等.应用碳氧平衡法测算生态用地需求量实证研究[J].中国土地科学, 2007,21(6):23-28.[Zhang Ying,Wang Qun,Li Bianjiang,et al.Study on Forecasting Ecological Land Demand with CarbonOxygen Balance Method[J].China Land Science,2007,21(6):23-28.]

[39]黄敏,廖为明,王立国,等.基于KAYA公式的低碳经济模型构建与运用:以江西省为例[J].生态经济,2010,(12):51-55.[Huang Min,Liao Weiming,Wang Liguo,et al.Construction and Use of the LowCarbon Economy Model Based on KAYA Model:a Case of Jiangxi Province[J].Ecological Economic, 2010,(12):51-55.]

[40]Fang J Y,Guo Z D,Piao S L,et al. Terrestrial Vegetation Carbon Sinks in China,1981-2000[J].Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences,2007,50(9): 1341-1350.

[41]曲艺,舒帮荣,欧名豪,等.基于生态用地约束的土地利用数量结构优化[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(1):155-161.[Qu Yi,Shu Bangrong,Ou Minghao,et al.Optimization of Land Use Quantity Structure Based on Ecological Land Constraints[J].China Population Resources and Environment.2013,23(1): 155-161.]

[42]李边疆.土地利用与生态环境关系研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2007. [Li Bianjiang. Study on the Relationship Between Land Use and Ecoenvironment[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Agricultural University, 2007.]

[43]方精云,刘国华,徐嵩龄.我国森林植被的生物量和净生产量[J].生态学报,1996,(5):497-508.[Fang Jingyun,Liu Guohua,Xu Songlin.Biomass and Net Production of Forest Vegetation in China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,1996,(5):497-508.]

[44]朴世龙,方精云,贺金生,等.中国草地植被生物量及其空间分布格局[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):491-498.[Bu Shilong,Fang Jingyun,He Jinsheng,et al.Spatial Distribution of Grassland Biomass in China[J].Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2004,28(4):491-498.]

[45]刘子刚,张坤民.湿地生态系统碳储存功能及其价值研究[J].环境保护,2002,(9):31-33.[Liu Zigang, Zhang Kunmin.Study on Carbon Stock Function and Its Value in Wetland Ecosystem[J].Environmental Protection,2002,(9):31-33.]

[46]IPCC.Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change(Report of Working Group I)[R].New York: Cambridge University Press,1996.

[47]牛振国,张海英,王显威,等.1978-2008年中国湿地类型变化[J].科学通报, 2012,57(16):1400-1411. [Niu Zhenguo,Zhang Haiying,Wang Xianwei,et al.The changes of China Wetland type from 1978 to 2008[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(16):1400-1411.]

AbstractScientifically forecasting the quantity of construction land expansion decides the feasibility and effectiveness of land use planning and land macrocontrol. Single objective oriented forecast of construction land expansion has significant limitations. This study systematically considers three main land use objectives, including construction land used for achieving economic development, cultivated land for food security, and ecological land for ecological security. Scenario analysis is used to predict the quantity of construction land expansion under different scenarios (defined based on parameters collected from national development strategies) in 2020, in which, multiple regression analysis and carbon balance analysis methods are applied to predict demands for construction land, cultivated land and ecological land. Results show that land resources cannot meet with the three main land use objectives at the same time when per unit GDP carbon emissions in 2020 decreases by 40% compared to that in 2005. Land demands for economic development, food security and ecological security can be coordinated and satisfied when the quantity of construction land is between 3 305.75×104 hm2 and 3 325.10×104 hm2 in 2020. Scenario analysis illustrates that the longterm supply of construction land mainly depends on the degree of transformation of economic development mode. Land use conflicts among economic development, food security and ecological security would be difficult to reconcile if the transformation of economic development mode is lag behind. Land resources can satisfy all three types of land use objectives and support sustainable development if the transformation of economic development mode makes significant progress. In the current stage of economic development, to achieve food security and ecological security, China should apply more powerful mechanisms to control construction land expansion and therefore promote the transformation of economic development mode. Scenario analysis method can also be used to examine the feasibility of different strategic targets, analyze the potential and effects of construction land expansion, and therefore can be applied to national level land management practices, such as land control and land use planning.

Key wordseconomic development; food security; ecological security; construction land expansion; scenario analysis

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