基于感官评价的蓝莓消费者满意度预测模型

2021-04-14 03:58徐曈晖李洋霍若冰王磊明
森林工程 2021年2期
关键词:感官评价预测模型回归分析

徐曈晖 李洋 霍若冰 王磊明

摘 要:测定在4、15 、25 ℃储藏温度下蓝莓的硬度、失重率、腐烂率和可滴定酸含量4 种指标品质随时间的变化情况,结合试验人员对蓝莓感官指标的评分,建立蓝莓消费者整体满意度快速预测模型,提升蓝莓消费者的购买满意度。结果表明,蓝莓质量随储藏时间呈下降趋势,较低的储藏温度能减缓品质下降幅度;对参数进行逐步回归分析,腐烂率、色泽和气味3项指标对拟合模型不具有显著性(P>0.05),去除后得消费者满意度的快速预测模型。本研究结合品质客观变化规律和消费者主观评分,建立的整体满意度预测模型与品质变化情况拟合度较高,为消费者快速判断蓝莓品质、提升消费满意度提供理论依据和经验参考。

关键词:蓝莓;感官评价;回归分析;预测模型

中图分类号:S663.9    文献标识码:A   文章编号:1006-8023(2021)02-0110-07

Prediction Model of Consumers Overall Satisfaction

of Blueberries Based on Sensory Evaluation

XU Tonghui, LI Yang*, HUO Ruobing, WANG Leiming

(College of Engineering and Technology, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)

Abstract:Through the determination of blueberry hardness, weight loss rate, decay rate and titratable acid content changed with time at storage temperature of 4, 15, 25 ℃, respectively; combined with the score of sensory indexes of blueberry, the rapid prediction model of overall satisfaction of blueberry consumers was established to improve the purchase satisfaction of blueberry consumers. The results showed that: the quality of blueberry decreased with storage time, and lower storage temperature could slow down the decline of quality; stepwise regression analysis of the model parameters showed that decay rate, color and flavor had no significant effect on the fitting model (P>0.05), and a rapid prediction model of consumer satisfaction was obtained after deletion. Based on the objective change of blueberry quality and the subjective score of consumers, the overall satisfaction prediction model had a high fitting degree with the change trend of blueberry quality, which provided theoretical basis and empirical reference for consumers to quickly judge blueberry quality and improve consumption satisfaction.

Keywords:Blueberries; sensory evaluation; regression analysis; prediction model

收稿日期:2020-09-25

基金項目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572017CB05);黑龙江省科学基金项目(QC2017080)

第一作者简介:徐曈晖,硕士研究生。研究方向为冷链物流保鲜。E-mail: 839927843@qq.com

通信作者:李洋,博士,副教授。研究方向为冷链物流。E-mail: 378918917@qq.com

引文格式:徐曈晖, 李洋, 霍若冰, 等.基于感官评价的蓝莓消费者满意度预测模型[J].森林工程,2021,37(2):110-116.

XU T H, LI Y, HUO R B, et al. Prediction model of consumers overall satisfaction of blueberries based on sensory evaluation [J]. Forest Engineering,2021,37(2):110-116.

0 引言

蓝莓,又称越橘,杜鹃花科越橘属,其果实中含有丰富的花青素、黄酮类化合物等多种生理活性成分[1],具有抗氧化活性和一定的医学价值[2],被联合国粮农组织(FAO)列为人类5大健康食品之一。随着社会经济的迅速发展和人民生活水平的提高,人们越来越倾向于营养价值高的食品,同时对品质也提出了更高的要求。近年来,针对蓝莓保鲜方法的研究,例如覆膜[3]、浸渍[4]和气调包装[5]等方面都有不错的进展。这些保鲜方法的应用对蓝莓品质的延长有显著效果,但是对于感官评价及消费者满意度预测方面的研究较少。因此,建立通过感官指标来判断果品质量,预测消费者满意度的模型,成为蓝莓产业发展的重要助推力。

3.2 藍莓感官的品质指标分析

3.2.1 指标相关性分析

通过统计试验人员的评分数据,分析硬度、失重率、腐烂率、色泽、口感和气味的相关性,结果显示这6 种指标的相关性显著(P<0.05),相关性系数都大于0.614。硬度、失重情况、腐烂情况、口感和气味间均极其显著(P<0.01),见表3。其中腐烂程度与硬度的相关系数最高为0.996,其次为蓝莓的气味与腐烂情况、失重情况,其相关系数分别为0.991和0.989。

3.2.2 指标的权重确定

在数据收集时,由试验人员标出在购买消费时最关心的品质指标。通过统计100名试验人员的数据结果,结合德尔菲权重赋值方法[20],对6 种指标进行权重赋值,具体数值见表4。在蓝莓的感官评价指标中蓝莓的腐烂情况权重最大,系数为0.25;权重最小的为色泽,系数为0.07。

3.3 蓝莓感官评价结果及预测模型

3.3.1 蓝莓感官评价结果

蓝莓的感官指标评价统计结果见表5,蓝莓的硬度、失重率、腐烂率、色泽和气味5 种指标在测试周期内均呈现逐渐降低的趋势。第2天口感得分有所上升,分析可能是蓝莓果实的可滴定酸含量和硬度的下降,口感和酸甜度有所改变,更符合普通消费者口感。且蓝莓果皮色泽较深,表面有蜡质层附着,色泽变化在测试周期内的得分并没有明显降低,表明蓝莓果实的色泽对消费者选购倾向的影响较少,与权重比例相符合。

将统计数据绘制成雷达图,反映各项指标随时间变化趋势。如图5所示,随着时间的变化,蓝莓感官各指标的得分所构成的六边形面积逐渐变小,各项数据向雷达中心收缩。客观地表达了蓝莓品质随着时间逐渐下降的趋势。

3.3.2 蓝莓感官评价结果回归分析

结合品质指标结合评分和指标权重,进行加权值计算,得出消费者满意度的最终得分。计算公式如下:

S=RW=r11r12…r17r21r22…r27r71r72…r77w1w2w7 。(1)

式中:S为综合得分;R为得分值矩阵(表5),W为权重矩阵(表4)。计算结果见表6。

根据以上计算结果进行回归分析。蓝莓的感官指标综合得分的高斯拟合曲线为:

y=8.69exp-x-1.1065.4672,(2)

相关系数r=0.980。

二项式拟合曲线为:

y=-0.190x2+0.336x+8.443, (3)

相关系数为r=0.996。

式中:y为综合得分分值;x为蓝莓储藏时间。

从图6不难看出,蓝莓品质在前3天下降趋势较为缓慢,这与实际测量结果一致。

3.3 消费者整体满意度预测模型

将蓝莓品质综合得分与各项感官指标进行逐步回归分析,建立蓝莓消费者整体满意度的预测模型,结果见表7。在分析的结果中,硬度、失重率和口感3 项指标与综合得分显著相关(P<0.05);而腐烂率、色泽和气味3项指标不具有显著性(P>0.05),这与之前评定的权重结果基本符合。R2约等于1,说明由硬度(H)、失重率(w)和口感(T)组成的预测模型接近实际情况,建立消费者满意度预测模型为:

y=1.154+0.273×H +0.309×w +0.294×T。

该模型可以帮助消费者选购蓝莓时,通过硬度、失重率和口感,快速地评判蓝莓品质,提升消费满意度。

4 结论

本研究结合蓝莓品质变化数据与感官评价得分,利用逐步回归分析方法建立了消费者满意度预测模型。通过试验研究了蓝莓品质在储藏期的变化情况,并对收集的调查数据进行加权处理,主要结论如下。

(1)蓝莓在4、15、25 ℃的储藏期间各项指标均呈现逐渐下降的趋势,且4 ℃环境下品质下降幅度较小,说明较低的温度有利于蓝莓储藏。通过感官评价得分所绘制的雷达图,反映出蓝莓的感官品质影响消费者的满意度。

(2)对感官评价得分进行高斯曲线拟合和多项式拟合,拟合曲线均呈下降趋势。值得注意的是,蓝莓在储藏初期感官评价得分有所上升,而在中后期下降迅速,且品质指标劣变明显。依据逐步回归分析法对6 种指标进行分析,筛除腐烂率、色泽和气味3 种不显著的指标,得出消费者满意度预测模型为:

y=1.154+0.273×H+0.309×w+0.294×T(R2>0.995)。

模型拟合精度较高,适合作为消费者通过感官指标对蓝莓品质的评价方法。

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