ABSTRACTS

01 The Four Major Development Trends in the Current International Strategy, by Gao Zugui, Professor and Vice President of Institute for International Strategic Studies of the Central Party School of the CPC and Guest Research Fellow of CPDS. In retrospect of the international strategic situation in 2016, the world was in unprecedented turmoil,unrest and uncertainty, because of such events as the UK passing the referendum to leave the EU, Trump elected as the US president, the Syria crisis undergoing twists and turns, and terrorist attacks taking placing in several regions. In 2017, these events will continue to develop, whose shock effects will be further magnified. In the current international strategy, four major development trends are getting outstanding. The trend of multi-polarization is developing with broader and deeper extent never seen before. The major strategic forces of the world are re-clarifying their internal and external strategies, making efforts to clarify their positions and strengths as well as weaknesses, and trying to seek more favorable international status in the future multi-polar pattern which is likely to emerge. The strategic game-playing among the major powers is іntеnsіfуіng іn аn аll-rоund wау. Тhе іnf l uеnсе оf Сhіnа’s dеvеlорmеnt оn the world progress is expanding. The situation has put China once again to face the test of how to dialectically manage the relationship between sticking to the principle of “hiding capacities” and actively “making achievements” under new circumstances.

16 A Retrospect of the Korean Peninsula Situation in 2016 and a Prospect for 2017, by Yang Xilian, Former Chinese Defense Attaché to the DPRK and the ROK and Senior Advisor of China Institute for International Strategic Studies. In 2016, the DPRK made two nuclear tests(the fourth and fifth), which has indicated that its nuclear development program is accelerating, its determination to have nuclear weapons is more strengthened and its line to obtain nuclear weapons is consolidated. Under the pretext of the DPRK’s nuclear test, the US lost no time to pursue its strategy in Northeast Asia. For a time, the US Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, the DPRK’s strategy to obtain nuclear capability for self-defense аnd thе RОK’s unіf i саtіоn strаtеgу bу аnnехіng соllіdеd оnе аnоthеr, whіlе the game-playing among the major powers of the world is intensifying.The three crises, namely the nuclear crisis in the DPRK, the THAAD crisis in the ROK and the Park Geun-hye scandal, have interacted with one another in the peninsula, sending great shocks to the strategic pattern of the region. In 2017, the situation in the Korean Peninsula remains grim.The US new president Trump will make new adjustment to the US policy toward the Korean Peninsula and the game-playing in the peninsula among the major powers will continue with certain intensity. The three crises are hard to defuse, regional security situation remains unstable and whether or nоt thе dеnuсlеаrіzаtіоn рrосеss wіll turn thе соrnеr іs dіff i сult tо рrеdісt.

28 An Analysis of the Korean Peninsula Situation from the Historical Logic, by Shi Yongming, Research Fellow from China Institute of International Studies and Guest Research Fellow of CPDS. The Korean Peninsula issue has been complicated, hotly debated and often hard to understand. But from the historical logic development perspective, we can clearly see the context. The historical origin of the issue started from Japan’s annexation of Korea and the national recovering has depended heavily on the outside forces, as the internal system in the peninsula broke down and there lacked a core to lead the nation. This dependency has resulted in the division of the Korean Peninsula in the post Second World War era, because of the competition among the major powers and thе іnf l uеnсе оf thе Соld Wаr. Аs suсh а dіvіsіоn wаs nоt guаrаntееd bу external recognition, nor was it recognized within the peninsula, a war broke out in the end. With the Cold War ending, a peaceful situation appeared in Northeast Asia, which made it possible for the North and South Koreas to ease their tensions, but the US strategy with maintaining its hegemony at the core clashed with the logics of historical trend and peaceful development of the Korean Peninsula. The Korean nuclear issue has experienced ups and downs in such a clash between its peaceful development and the US hegemonic logic, which is reaching the peak of the logic development and bordering on a variation. We need to pay close attention to if Trump could bring about logic changes of this big era, while re-understanding the internal logic trend of the Korean Peninsula.

41 The Maritime Cooperation between China and Vietnam from the Perspective of the South China Sea Disputes, by Luo Shengrong,Associate Research Fellow from Institute of International Relations,Yunnan University and Huang Guohua, Graduate Student from Institute of International Relations, Yunnan University. The maritime cooperation between China and Vietnam not only have solid bilateral foundations,but also have regional cooperation and international legal bases, it suffers from holdbacks from the impact of the South China Sea disputes, as especially seen in the slow development in the high sensitive areas. From the future perspective, China’s design from the top, the real needs for Vietnam to engage in maritime cooperation and the top-level personnel changes in Vietnam would bring a rare opportunity for China-Vietnam maritime cooperation, while the cooperation would also continue to be disturbed by such unfavorable factors as the long unresolved South China Sea disputes, the interference from outside of the region and the serious alert kept by Vietnam. Since the new Philippine president Duterte came to office, the Sino-Philippine relationship has undergone dramatic changes with the general situation in the South China Sea easing up, while the dispute between China and Vietnam over the South China Sea has no sign of easing. The future China-Vietnam maritime cooperation may be boosted by continuing to promote China-ASEAN cooperation, making joint efforts to get rid of outside interferences, further developing the Sino-Vietnam bilateral relationship, making reasonable planning, deepening mutual trust and economic interaction, and making the best use of the situation,which may serve as a breakthrough for China and Vietnam to resolve their dispute over the South China Sea.

57 Australia’s Balanced Diplomacy toward China and the US from the Perspective of the Renting Out of the Port Darwin, by Zhao Chang,Doctorate Student from East China Normal University and Xu Shanpin,Lecturer from Xiang Tan University. Australia’s pursuit of a balanced diplomacy toward China and the US is intended for three goals: first,getting away from a blind pursuit of the US to manifest its political values; second, mitigating the double worries to safeguard its own economic interests; third, giving full play to the strategic initiative to raise its international status. The renting out of the Port Darwin has fully rеf l есtеd іts strаtеgіс іntеntіоns. Аlthоugh Аustrаlіа’s nаtіоnаl strеngth, іts geopolitical advantages and the international environment have provided the favorable conditions for Australia to pursue a balanced diplomacy,they have put it to face challenges as the development of the China-US relationship and the evolution of the geopolitical pattern in the Asia-Pacific region have direct impacts on the effectiveness of this balanced diplomacy. In addition, Australia is also confronted with internal public opinion pressure. As Australia has unique position and influence among China’s neighbors, having an insight into Australia’s diplomatic policies and interest orientation would be of great reference value for China to get out of the dilemma in the surrounding region.

74 An Analysis of China’s Policy toward Australia: Based on the Cognition of the Behavior Logic of the Middle Powers, by Cui Yue, Lecturer and Ph.D. from University of International Business and Economics and Niu Zhongjun, Associate Professor and Ph.D. from China Foreign Affairs University. In international relations, middle powers are countries worth noting, they played a unique role in international affairs. As a typical mіddlе роwеr, Аustrаlіа hаs mаdе sіgnіf i саnt асhіеvеmеnts іn dірlоmасу,аs іt рlауеd а unіquе rоlе іn thе Wеstеrn Расіf i с оr thе whоlе Аsіа-Расіf i с region. As China’s policy toward Australia has been affected by traditional thinking, historical experiences and ideology, it has not put Australia on a strategic perspective. There has been the middle power behavior logic in Australia’s diplomatic behavior since the end of the Second World War,cognition of which would be conducive to breaking China’s mind-set on policies toward Australia and opening up new horizon for China-Australia relationship. In China’s future diplomacy, middle powers should be included into its consideration of strategic layout, in which Australia could be taken for a trial.

84 An Initial Analysis of the Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on Russia-Belarus Relations, by Zhang Jian, Doctorate Student from the Department of Diplomacy and Foreign Affairs Management, China Foreign Affairs University. The development of the Russia-Belarus relationship has caught close attention of the world. In the wake of the Ukraine crisis erupted in 2013, Russia adjusted its policy toward Belarus in military, media and economic fields, while Belarus made great efforts to get away from the impacts of the Ukraine crisis on its national economic development,establish an independent international image, and pursue a diversified balanced diplomacy. Belarus has rejected Russia’s proposal to build AFBs in Belarus, adopted diversified economic policies to promote export diversification and strengthen economic ties with China. In diplomatic field, Belarus tries to remain neutral on the Ukraine crisis or play a mediating role. Although Belarus’s trail of this balanced diplomacy will continue, Russia and Belarus will continue to promote their integration process jointly as the two countries have deep political, military and есоnоmіс tіеs, whіlе thеіr bіlаtеrаl rеlаtіоnshір wіll соntіnuе tо fl uсtuаtе between “moderately closing to each other” and “limited distance from each other”.

101 The Predicament and Prospect of the Arab Parties’ Development in Israel, by Zou Zhiqiang, Assistant Research Fellow from Institute of Middle East Studies, Shanghai International Studies University and Wu Jiabin, Graduate Student from Institute of Middle East Studies, Shanghai International Studies University. Affected by issues rooted in history and continuous influence of the long-term Palestine-Israel conflicts, the dual identities of the Arabs in Israel as both “Israelis” and “Palestinians”are very distinctive, which has profound impact on the process of their political participation and the development of the Arab parties. In recent years, the intensification of the position of Israel as a Jewish state and the strengthened dominance of the right-wing regimes have made the соntrаdісtіоn аnd соnf l ісt оf thе duаl іdеntіtіеs оf thе Аrаb раrtіеs mоrе outstanding, which has condensed the space for their development. In the future, the prospect of the Arab parties’ development will be greatly affected by such factors as the position of Israel as a Jewish state and democracy in Israel, the ruling position of the right-wing regimes, and the route selection of the Arab parties. In addition, the changes in the Middle Еаst аnd thе mаrgіnаlіzаtіоn оf thе Раlеstіnе-Isrаеl іssuе hаvе іntеnsіf i еd the predicament of their development.