从今年东亚合作系列外长会看南海问题新动向

徐步

从今年东亚合作系列外长会看南海问题新动向

徐步

针对菲律宾南海仲裁案，美国、日本等域外国家拼命鼓噪，肆意曲解《联合国海洋法公约》，故意怂恿仲裁庭滥用权力，甚至对仲裁庭成员的组成进行政治操弄。今年东亚合作系列外长会的召开正值东亚形势阴云笼罩、南海问题波诡云谲、菲律宾南海仲裁案裁决结果刚刚出台之时，一些域内外势力企图将矛头指向中国。越来越多的域内国家对本地区形势被南海问题绑架感到不安，对域外国家一味炒作菲律宾南海仲裁案裁决表示不满。

东亚合作系列外长会；南海仲裁案；中国—东盟关系；老挝万象

2016年7月24日至26日，东亚合作系列外长会年度会议在老挝首都万象举行。①所谓东亚系列合作外长会议，包括东盟国家外长会议、东盟与中国（10+1）外长会议、东盟与中日韩（10+3）外长会议、东亚峰会（EAS）外长会议和东盟地区论坛（ARF）外长会议。笔者作为中国外交部长王毅所率代表团成员，出席了在老挝首都万象举行的本届年度会议。这次会议的召开正值东亚形势阴云笼罩、南海问题波诡云谲、菲律宾南海仲裁案裁决结果刚刚出台之时，一些域内外势力企图将矛头指向中国。在这一背景下，这次会议的走势如何、会议是否会完全被南海问题绑架、会议相关文件将如何措辞，有关国家高度重视，国际舆论十分关注。结果显示，越来越多的域内国家对本地区务实合作被南海问题绑架感到不安，对域外国家一味炒作菲律宾南海仲裁案裁决表示不满，要稳定、求合作的愿望成为域内国家的普遍诉求。

一、仲裁结果使人们普遍感到担忧

2016年7月12日，应菲律宾前总统阿基诺三世政府单方面请求成立的所谓南海仲裁案临时仲裁庭公布了裁决结果。不出意料，这一结果完全倒向菲方一边。

中国政府第一时间发表关于在南海的领土主权和海洋权益的声明，中国外交部发表针对南海仲裁案仲裁庭所做裁决的声明，王毅外长就所谓南海仲裁庭裁决发表谈话。7月13日，中方发表《中国坚持通过谈判解决中国与菲律宾在南海的有关争议》白皮书。中方立场明确，仲裁庭所谓裁决是非法的、无效的，没有拘束力，中国不接受、不承认。

针对南海仲裁案，美国、日本等域外国家拼命鼓噪，肆意曲解《联合国海洋法公约》（以下简称《公约》），故意怂恿仲裁庭滥用权力，甚至对仲裁庭成员的组成进行政治操弄。事实上，南海仲裁案的实质是南海部分岛礁领土主权问题，有关事项构成中菲海洋划界不可分割的组成部分。领土主权问题不属于《公约》的调整范围。2006年中国根据《公约》第298条作出排除性声明，将涉及海洋划界等问题排除在《公约》争端解决程序之外。菲方声称其不寻求判定任何领土归属或划定任何海洋边界，然而在仲裁进程特别是庭审中，却要求否定中国在南海的领土主权和海洋权益。南海仲裁案开了恶劣先例，改变了以往有关当事方通过直接对话协商和平解决争端的有效方式，否定了中国和菲律宾双边协议解决分歧的共识以及在《南海各方行为宣言》（以下简称《宣言》）中的庄严承诺。

当今世界的新闻媒体主要掌控在美国等西方国家手中，它们在议题设计、舆论引导、技术设备以及传播能力等诸方面占据明显优势。发展中国家面临两难境地：要么与西方国家为伍，听从它们的指使，充当它们的帮手；要么被它们视为异类，遭到它们妖魔化，面临它们的打压。在国际话语权方面，新兴大国与西方发达国家存在极大差距。仲裁裁决一出来，西方媒体就紧紧围绕所谓“法制”、“规则”、“秩序”等话题大做文章，大肆抹黑中国，企图把违反法制秩序的脏水泼向中国。尽管如此，菲律宾仲裁案的漏洞太多，污点太明显，因此包括一些西方学者在内的舆论仍然对裁决结果提出了种种质疑。综合而言，这些观点主要有：

一是临时仲裁庭的裁决明显带有政治目的。澳大利亚学者说，裁决将中国逼入角落，但大国不会接受对自己有害的裁决。①KaiHe and Huiyun Feng,Griffith University,"South China Sea Ruling Won't Improve Regional Security",National Intereston line,August6,2016.在新加坡举行的有关研讨会上，一些资深法学家从纯法学角度点评这次裁决相当“大胆”，仲裁员们抱着“发展法律”的“使命”当裁判。有法学者提醒指出，“在法律上，‘大胆’、‘创造力’可不是什么褒义词，因为法官的责任是根据现有规则做裁判，不是发展新的规则。《公约》是由主权国家缔结的条约，标准岂是仲裁庭就能决定的？”②韩永红：《仲裁案的大胆裁决与影响》，《联合早报》2016年7月15日。澳大利亚格里菲斯大学国际关系学院的专家指出，南海仲裁裁决打破了南海争议的模糊平衡，不仅无法提升区域安全，相反对区域安全具有负面影响。对菲律宾来说，仲裁无法执行，裁决无法自动转化为实质性领土和海洋权益收益。裁决开启了南海争议新阶段，但不会改变基于实力的国际政治这一基本原则。③KaiHe and Huiyun Feng,Griffith University,"South China Sea Ruling Won't Improve Regional Security",National Intereston line,August6,2016.

二是仲裁庭裁决不专业。美国及欧洲一些国际法专家指出，受菲律宾仲裁案结果冲击的将远不止中国与菲律宾。仲裁庭对“岛”采取了很严格的标准，这开启了新的麻烦。仲裁庭将南沙最大岛屿即有着50万平方米的太平岛判定为“礁”，称其不具有海洋权利，这违背了国际法原则。彼德·柯伊（指出，菲律宾南海仲裁案裁决将对全球的专属经济区产生连锁反应，“美国和其他沿岸国家可能因此失去数百万平方海里的海洋，而这些海洋直到现在还是它们的专属经济区”。①PeterCoy,"Is Itan Island ora Rock?Ruling Could CostU.S.aHuge Swath of Ocean"July 29,2016.美国麻省理工大学学者翻出例子称，如果按照这次仲裁庭做出的司法先例与“高严标准”，世界上许多国家所拥有的“岛”，都该降格为“礁”，包括日本的冲之鸟礁、美国声称在北太平洋拥有200海里专属经济区的金曼礁（Kingman Reef），它们的定位都与这次裁决产生矛盾。②韩永红：《仲裁案的大胆裁决与影响》，《联合早报》2016年7月15日。

三是裁决严重干扰通过谈判处理相关分歧的努力。东南亚国家一些学者认为，菲律宾新政府在裁决前屡次释放信息，表示愿与中国通过双边协商解决南海问题。如今在国内亢奋的情绪下，菲律宾要牺牲本国已获得的利益变得更加困难。至于诉求被否决的中国，在强大的国内民族主义压力下，要示弱也更为不可能。这次裁决让妥协更加困难。③韩永红：《仲裁案的大胆裁决与影响》，《联合早报》2016年7月15日。新加坡尤索夫伊沙克研究所（Yusof Ishak Institute）研究员邓秀岷表示，东盟没有理由深陷仲裁案之中，“仲裁案并不是由东盟发起的，也不需要它来解决”。④"Beijing'sVoice Louder than the ASEAN on SCS",the Straits Times,July 29,2016.澳大利亚学者认为，各声索国原本对《公约》均作出有利于自己的解读，相互挑战对方声索，法理模糊为各方保持克制、谈判妥协提供了空间和灵活性。裁决结束了这种模糊性，但又无法解决争议。中国政府在国内面临压力，特别是国内民族主义情绪上升情况下，不得不采取军事演习等措施。裁决可能使菲律宾和其他受益国过度自信并导致其采取不明智举动。⑤KaiHe and Huiyun Feng,Griffith University,"South China Sea Ruling Won't Improve Regional Security",National Intereston line,August6,2016.

四是裁决结果将加大中美两个大国的竞争。澳大利亚学者在一篇题为“中国输在法庭，赢在海洋”的文章中指出，南海问题并不仅仅是中国和菲律宾以及其他南海主权声索国之间对于重叠海域的领土主权和海洋资源的争议，它也是中美两个超级大国如何处理双方权力格局变化的试金石。中美作为竞争双方，在该海域存在发生对抗和战略误判的可能性。一旦出现这种事态，将导致南海这条世界上最繁忙的贸易路线出现无法预知和控制的冲突。澳大利亚至今并不愿意过度靠近美国，不愿意参加由美国主导的在南海中国控制岛礁附近的巡航行动。⑥Jennifer Hewett,"China Loses in Court,Winsat Sea澳大利亚格里菲斯大学国际关系学院的专家认为，各方特别是中美应当冷静下来，降低预期，避免冲突，搁置争议，寻求合作。⑦KaiHe and Huiyun Feng,Griffith University,"South China Sea Ruling Won't Improve Regional Security",National Intereston line,August6,2016.

五是裁决可能损害南海地区的贸易安全与自由。美国媒体报道，裁决引起了对贸易安全的担忧，仲裁法庭否认中国对南海大部分地区拥有主权的判决，给地区航运和贸易带来巨大不确定性。航运公司一直以来都担心南海地区争议升级将影响全球商业。7月12日的判决“将鼓励南海周边小国更加强硬地捍卫其在该海域的权利，这将增加他们与中国对抗的风险，从而使该地区的自由航行受到干扰”。①Sara Schonhardt,"Sea Ruling RaisesWorriesover Trade",美国前驻东盟贸易代表艾里克·辛帕称，如果这些国家的政府以仲裁结果为法律基础，扩大在中国宣称拥有主权的海域进行捕鱼和油气勘探行动，将导致潜在冲突风险的上升。他强调，“如果政府支持的商业活动没有与中国进行很好的沟通，势必将导致冲突的潜在风险升温”。②Sara Schonhardt,"Sea Ruling RaisesWorriesover Trade",

六是菲律宾实质之“失”大于其表面之“获”。澳大利亚学者潘成鑫）在“南海仲裁案：谁真正获胜”文章中指出，南海仲裁案结果出乎很多预测菲律宾会获胜的专家的预料，“但仲裁案会使南海争端进入一个新的时期吗？会有利于菲律宾等小的声索国吗？我认为并非如此。”潘成鑫指出，应该认识到，争端从来都不仅仅是法律问题或者技术问题，仲裁一边倒的性质使其付诸实施的可能性大大降低。不管是不是岛屿，南海中的那些地貌在功能上早已经是国家主权的象征，这不是一个一边倒的裁决能够解决的。哈佛大学格雷厄姆·艾利森教授也指出，“联合国安理会五常没有一个国家曾经接受过任何对其主权和安全利益不利的国际法庭的裁决”。如果美国、菲律宾、越南和其他国家一道对中国发难，中国可能会通过在南海建设军事设施来作出实际回应。如果法律上的胜利使一些政客认为现在是时候来限制中国了，那么中国则可能变为更大的赢家。③http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/the−south−china−sea−ruling−who−really−won,visited on August20,2016.

七是裁决结果不会对中国的政策产生实际影响。俄罗斯科学院远东研究所副所长安德烈·奥斯特洛夫斯基在俄《真理报》刊文表示，海牙法院的判决对中国来说就像被蚊子叮了一下。原则上来说，海牙法院的判决对中国造成不了什么影响，它仅仅只是记录了当下欧美各国在政治领域对正在崛起的中国的担忧与不满，也就是所谓的“插楔子”。这项决议没有实际执行的意义。④http://m.dw new s.com/global/new s/2016−07−12/59753187.htm l,visited on August20,2016.印尼外长蕾特诺）指出，“每一个人都知道7月12日的裁决结果解决不了声索国之间有关领土划界问题的突出争议。关于划界问题，还得由声索国自己去谈。在东盟与中国外长会议上，菲律宾和中国都表示它们准备开始谈判。我们对此高度赞赏，我们应当让它们以它们认为合适的方式去谈判”。⑤Retno LPMarsudi,"We allhavemadean effort tomove things forward in Vientiane",The Jakarta Post,August1,2016.蕾特诺表示，印尼最关心的问题是稳定（Stability），“历史和经验一再表明，一旦一个地区常常出现大国展示力量的现象，这个地区的形势就会变得非常复杂。我们要做的事就是确保地区的和平稳定”。⑥Retno LPMarsudi,"We allhavemadean effort tomove things forward in Vientiane",The Jakarta Post,August1,2016.亚洲新闻台7月14日刊文称，东盟曾就南海问题表达过担忧，但都避免提及中国。菲律宾前驻联合国大使劳罗·巴加指出，东盟在仲裁裁决出来后没能集体发声，这就表明“由于南海问题可能导致东盟分裂，我们再也不要指望东盟会在将来通过针对中国的声明”。①"ASEAN to Keep Mum on South China SeaRuling:Diplomats",channelnew sasia,July 14,2016.

二、东盟国家重视与中国的务实合作

2016年是中国与东盟建立对话关系25周年。双方于1991年开启对话进程，2003年建立战略伙伴关系。2016年7月24日下午，王毅外长抵达万象后，立即展开了多场密集的双边会谈。7月25日上午，中国—东盟外长会在万象举行了一个半小时，气氛融洽友好，外长们约80%的时间都在聚焦发展与合作。对东盟的每一个对话伙伴国来说，它们独自与东盟的会议（10+1）是最具实质内容的。比如东盟与中国的会议，对中国最为重要。在这个会议上，东盟与中方会深入讨论双方各个领域的务实合作，并发表有关声明或合作文件。有关国家外长纷纷表示，中国是东盟所有十个对话伙伴中关系最密切、合作最务实、成果最丰硕的伙伴。

25年来，中国与东盟各层级对话机制日臻成熟，中国与东盟各国领导人互访频繁。在东盟对话伙伴中，中国第一个加入《东南亚友好合作条约》，第一个与东盟建立战略伙伴关系，第一个明确支持《东南亚无核武器区条约》，第一个确定同东盟建立自贸区。双方已建立起一套完整的对话合作体系，包括领导人、部长、高官等各个层次，形成了外交、经济、交通、海关署长、总检察长、青年事务、卫生、电信、新闻、质检、打击跨国犯罪和执法安全合作等部长级会议机制。在高官及工作层面，双方在20多个领域建立了合作对话机制。2015年11月，双方达成第三份《落实中国—东盟面向和平与繁荣的战略伙伴关系联合宣言的行动计划（2016—2020）》，为中国—东盟关系未来五年发展规划了蓝图。多层级交往及务实合作为双方增进互信提供了重要平台，为双方关系健康稳定发展奠定了坚实的政治基础。

经贸合作是双方关系的重要支柱。2015年，中国与东盟贸易额达4721亿美元，比1991年的79.6亿美元增加近60倍。中国连续7年是东盟的第一大贸易伙伴，东盟连续5年是中国第三大贸易伙伴。双方累计投资额达1564亿美元，较1991的5亿美元增加300多倍。中国与东盟在农业、信息通信技术、人力资源开发、投资、湄公河流域开发、交通、能源、文化、旅游、公共卫生和环境等11个重点领域展开了务实合作。双方贸易、投资和产业合作日益密切，已形成“你中有我、我中有你”的相互依存的发展格局。双方于2010年建成世界上最大的发展中国家自贸区，2015年就升级自贸区达成协议，并于2016年7月1日生效。双方在人文领域的合作不断深入，双向人员往来从2003年的387万人次增加到2015年的2300万人次，中国已成为东盟第一大境外游客来源地。

中国积极参与东盟主导的区域合作机制。双方在中国和东盟（10+1）、东盟地区论坛、东盟防长扩大会、东盟和中日韩（10+3）等框架下开展了形式多样的合作交流活动。在10+1框架下，中国过去10年里提出了100多项合作倡议。在10+3框架下，中国积极参与和推进金融安全、贸易投资、农业减贫等重点领域合作，推进建设东亚经济共同体。中方积极维护东亚峰会作为“领导人引领的战略论坛”性质，推动峰会六大领域务实合作，为峰会发展作出了应有贡献。中国还积极参与东盟地区论坛框架下的对话工作，迄今已举办了40多个合作项目，每年主办的合作项目都占项目总数的三分之一，在论坛27个成员中居首位。

应对非传统安全威胁已经成为中国与东盟安全合作的重要内容。双方军事防务交流合作不断拓展。2011年，中国同东盟举行了首次防长交流。2015年，双方首次在华举行中国—东盟防长非正式会晤和中国—东盟执法安全合作部长级对话。自1997年起，中国同东盟每两年举行一次打击跨国犯罪部长级会议，双方还签署了《关于非传统安全领域合作谅解备忘录》。在此机制下，双方在打击贩毒、非法移民、海盗、恐怖主义、武器走私、洗钱、国际经济、网络犯罪等跨国犯罪方面密切合作。2015年11月，在出席第18届中国—东盟领导人会议期间，李克强总理建议共同提升安全合作水平，争取早日实现防长非正式会晤机制化和执法安全合作部长级对话机制化，建立中国—东盟防务直通电话，设立中国—东盟执法学院，并建议在未来5年内为东盟国家执法部门提供2000人次培训。

中国—东盟关系正处在承前启后的关键节点。在7月25日举行的中国与东盟国家外长会议上，东盟各国外长均强调中国与东盟关系的重要性，希望这一关系能得到进一步加强。新加坡外长维文说，东盟和中国对维护地区和平与稳定的目标一致，大家应当向前看。文莱第二外长林玉成说，中国为维护地区和平与稳定作出了重大贡献，中国的“一带一路”倡议和带头成立的亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB）将为本地区发展带来更大的机遇。泰国外长敦说，中国是东盟亲密的邻居，双方在贸易、投资、旅游以及互联互通等方面仍有很大合作潜力。缅甸国务资政昂山素季说，中国是缅甸的好朋友，也是东盟的好朋友，尽管相互间会有分歧，但对解决好分歧充满信心。老挝外长沙伦赛说，中国的发展给东盟国家带来了机遇，双方有共同利益，老方感谢中国对老挝经济发展提供的帮助。菲律宾外长亚赛说，25年来的东盟与中国关系成果丰硕，中国已成为东盟最大贸易伙伴，亚洲基础设施投资银行将助推东盟国家的经济发展。越南外长范平明说，中国是东盟所有对话伙伴中关系最丰富、发展最快的伙伴，越南重视与中国的特殊关系。印尼外长蕾特诺说，中国和东盟是朋友，双方经贸关系日益密切，和平、稳定和安全对双方都十分重要。马来西亚外交部常秘奥斯曼说，中国与东盟在各领域往来频繁，明年（2017）将是中国与东盟的旅游合作年，希望以此带动双方更多的人员交流。柬埔寨外交国务部长宋拉查薇说，中国是东盟最密切的合作伙伴，各个领域的合作成果均十分显著。

对于下一阶段的中国—东盟关系，王毅外长在万象提出了六项工作重点，得到东盟各国的积极响应。这六项分别是：一是办好中国—东盟建立对话关系25周年纪念峰会，推动会议取得成功；二是继续推进务实合作，使去年领导人会议期间签署的中国—东盟自贸区升级议定书尽快落地，进一步扩大经贸往来，促进产业转型升级；三是打造社会人文合作新支柱。双方已在政治安全和经贸合作两个领域取得巨大进展。下一步将以教育和旅游为优先方向，打造双方人文合作的新支柱。今年（2016）是中国—东盟教育交流年，明年（2017）将举办“中国—东盟旅游合作年”；四是深化政治安全合作，中方重申愿与东盟尽早商签“中国—东盟国家睦邻友好合作条约”，支持东盟建立东南亚无核武器区的努力，愿与东盟尽早签署有关议定书；五是培育次区域合作新平台，中方愿通过澜沧江—湄公河合作机制，帮助东盟缩小内部发展差距，为东盟共同体建设和一体化进程作出新贡献；六是共同维护地区和平稳定。双方都同意着眼大局，聚焦合作，妥处分歧，把地区和平稳定的钥匙掌握在自己手中，共同探索符合地区实际的发展之道。①http://asean.chinamission.org.cn/chn/ztbd/2016zhb/t1385414.htm,visited on August20,2016.

尽管有一些国家提出南海形势和相关问题，但外长们本着相互尊重和信任的精神，从积极的角度就此交换了意见。大家一致认为，围绕南沙部分岛礁存在的争端不是中国和东盟之间的问题，不能以此定义中国—东盟关系，同时更不能让这些具体问题影响中国—东盟整体关系的发展。东盟作为一个整体，对菲律宾前政府单方面提出的仲裁案不持立场，对裁决结果不予评论，也不选边站队，认为这是中菲双边之间的问题，支持中菲通过双边对话协商寻求解决方案。王毅外长在老挝万象强调，临时仲裁庭作出的裁决漏洞百出，严重缺乏合法性。现在这一页已经翻过去了，由此引发的无谓炒作应该退烧降温，南海问题需要拨乱反正。菲外长亚赛也表示，菲律宾在与中国的南海仲裁案中没有寻求东盟或国际社会的支持，也不想因此使东盟陷入分裂或激怒中国。仲裁案裁决不是东盟要处理的事情，而是菲律宾和中国之间的事情。亚赛还指出，无论你认为这是中国胜利还是菲律宾胜利，重要的是我们正在寻求和平方式解决争议。中菲之间的争端最实际的解决办法还是在中菲之间。

为了推动南海问题重回正确轨道，中方提议由中国和东盟外长共同发表《全面有效落实南海各方行为宣言的联合声明》，这一提议得到东盟十国一致支持。11位外长于7月25日对外共同发表声明。中方一直认为，《宣言》是中国和东盟国家共同达成并一致遵守的地区规则，是维护南海地区和平与稳定的行为指南。以一纸裁决企图否定《宣言》的约束力，是对所有《宣言》签署国的国家意志和信誉的诋毁，是不能被接受的。外长们在万象发表的《联合声明》的核心内容是，争议由直接当事方通过对话协商和平解决，南海稳定由中国和东盟国家共同维护。这恰恰是东盟提出和中国倡导的“双轨思路”。中方认为，“双轨思路”是维护南海和平稳定、解决南海争议的切实有效的正确途径。《联合声明》明确发出了中国和东盟共同维护南海和平稳定的信号，也表明中国和东盟各方通过声明承诺回到由直接当事方协商解决具体争议的正确轨道。

三、美日澳成为地区和平稳定的搅局者

东亚合作系列会议由高官会（通常由各国副部级官员出席）、部长会和领导人会三个层级组成。通常情况下，高官会一年举行2次，外长会一年1次，领导人会一年1次。这三个层级既各自独立，又相互关联。理论上讲，高官会、部长会和领导人会均有自身的议题，同时高官会的任务又是为部长会作准备，而部长会则又是为领导人会作准备。领导人会是每年东亚合作系列会议的最高潮。东亚合作系列会议不仅有上述三个层级，且每一层级都由几个机制的会议组成，分别是东盟官员内部会议、东盟与对话伙伴会议（10+1，即东盟与每一个对话伙伴的会议）、东盟与中日韩三国会议（10+3）、东亚峰会（EAS）和东盟地区论坛（ARF）。①东盟的对话伙伴是中国、美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯、欧盟、印度、加拿大、新西兰和澳大利亚。EAS的成员是东盟十国、中国、美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯、印度、新西兰和澳大利亚。ARF的成员是东盟十国、中国、美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯、欧盟、印度、加拿大、新西兰、澳大利亚、朝鲜、蒙古、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、巴布亚新几内亚和东帝汶。今年东亚合作系列外长会议的全称叫：第49届东盟外长会议暨东盟与对话伙伴外长会议（49thAMM/PMCs）、第17届东盟与中日韩三国外长会议（17thAPTFMM）、第6届东亚峰会外长会议（6thEASFMM）、第23届东盟地区论坛（23rdARF）及相关会议。ARF只有高官和外长两个层级的会议，没有领导人会议。

东盟国家官员内部会议是每一次东亚合作系列会议的开场戏。紧随其后的是10+1和东盟与中日韩10+3会议，接着才举行东亚峰会（EAS）和东盟地区论坛（ARF）。EAS和ARF只是论坛性质的会议，区别是EAS被定位为“领导人引领的战略论坛”，按设计应聚焦能源、环境和灾害管理、教育、公共卫生、金融和互联互通六个优先领域。ARF只有高官和外长层次的会议，着重讨论安全问题，聚焦建立信任措施、开展预防性外交和探讨解决冲突的方式等事项。这些年来在ARF框架下有关国家举办了各类涉及安全问题的研讨班、培训班以及应对非传统安全问题的演习。其中，中国承办的项目最多，贡献最大。

在上述不同层级、不同机制的会议中，东盟国家外长会具有特殊的重要性。一是因为东盟外长会讨论的议题内容最广泛、最务实；二是因为东盟外长会后，通常要在所有成员国反复磋商后发表一份联合公报，以表明东盟国家对方方面面问题的立场；三是相对于包括领导人会议在内的其他层级或机制仅仅发表主席声明作为会议文件，外长联合公报是林林总总会议中内容最全面、形式最正式的成果文件；四是东盟外长联合公报的内容不仅是东亚峰会及东盟地区论坛外长级会议主席声明内容的重要依据，也是之后召开的领导人会议相关文件的重要依据。由于东盟强调它在区域合作中的中心地位，而且域内外其他国家也都一再表示支持东盟在地区事务中的中心地位，因此东盟外长联合公报被认为是整个东亚合作系列会议中最重要的文件。也正因此，东盟外长联合公报受到域内外国家超乎寻常的密切关注。

今年的东盟外长会于7月24日在老挝首都万象举行。东盟十国外长们讨论的议题十分广泛，集中围绕今年会议的主题“将愿景变成现实：致力于充满活力的东盟共同体”展开。今年是东盟宣布成立共同体后的第一年，会议认为东盟在建立经济共同体、政治安全共同体和社会文化共同体方面取得了很大成就，但也面临不少挑战。今年东盟外长联合公报题为“将愿景变成现实：致力于充满活力的东盟共同体”，内容由9个部分构成，分别是：建设东盟共同体、东盟政治安全共同体、东盟经济共同体、东盟社会文化共同体、东盟互联互通、东盟对外关系、东盟地区论坛、区域与全球问题、关于第50届东盟外长会。由于此次系列外长会是菲律宾南海仲裁案之后在本地区举行的最重要外交活动，南海问题以及仲裁裁决受到西方国家格外关注。联合公报原本应在会后不久公布，但由于域外势力大肆对东盟一些国家施压，菲、越等国试图将仲裁、大规模岛礁建设等影射中国的内容塞入公报，遭到东盟内一些国家的反对，东盟成员国迟迟不能达成共识。为尽快就公报涉南海内容达成一致，老挝外长沙伦赛根据印尼外长蕾特诺的建议临时召集东盟外长特别会议进行讨论。25日上午，第49届东盟外长会联合公报终于出台，其中只字未提菲律宾南海仲裁案及裁决结果。

南海问题本来只是有关声索国的事。在东盟内涉南海争议的4个声索国中，菲律宾和越南与中国的分歧比较突出，而马来西亚和文莱则在处理同中国的南海问题纠纷时相对理智平和。近年来，南海问题急剧升温，原因相当复杂。总体上看，一是域内一些国家误判形势，谋求侵蚀中国主权利益，以为中国会吞下苦果；二是域内一些国家的政治人物企图借操弄民族主义话题，转嫁内部矛盾，捞取政治私利；三是域外一些国家对中国经济快速发展、国力不断增强、周边影响持续上升日益焦虑，谋求通过挑拨离间破坏中国同周边国家特别是东盟国家的良好合作关系，干扰中国的发展进程。在这些背景下，自美国推出所谓“亚太再平衡”战略后，南海形势被炒得越来越热闹，原本与南海问题并不相关的国家也纷纷卷入其中。

仔细看过今年东盟外长联合公报的人都清楚，东盟国家外长讨论的事务很多，重点是如何进一步建设东盟共同体，如何加强东盟国家在政治、经济、社会、人文及互联互通等领域的务实合作。在东盟国家外长公报共9个部分、192个段落的内容中，南海问题出现在倒数第二部分的区域和全球问题当中，内容有8段，约占公报段落总数的4%。很显然，南海问题虽然被一些国家炒得很热，但实际上并不是东盟多数国家关注的重点。对它们来说，国内稳定和经济发展等问题要比南海问题重要得多。这一点在7月25日举行的东盟国家与中国（10+1）外长会议以及东盟国家与中日韩（10+3）外长会议上都表现得很突出。东盟多数国家外长强调，在世界经济增长放缓、本地区国家普遍面临民生压力的情况下，充分利用中国经济的引领作用是当务之急。当个别国家外长在会上拿南海问题说事时，泰国外长敦明确指出，大家应把精力更多放在如何实现可持续发展的问题上，而非浪费与中国这样一个重要国家外长在一起的时间。

出乎人们意料的是，就在东盟外长公报避免提及仲裁裁决等敏感问题时，美国、日本和澳大利亚等与南海问题不相干的国家变得焦躁不安。这些国家对东盟外长公报没能支持裁决结果深为不满，对公报甚至没有提及仲裁这个词极为失望。在这一背景下，美日澳三国外长决定披挂上阵，冲到前台。7月25日深夜，美国伙同日本、澳大利亚匆匆抛出三方联合声明，声援仲裁庭的裁决，强调裁决具有约束力。7月26日，在第六届东亚峰会外长会上，美日澳等国外长在发言中继续拿南海仲裁案说事。很显然，人们看到，一方面本地区国家决心深化合作，期待南海局势降温，另一方面这个三方声明却还在煽动升温；一方面本地区国家都不愿在仲裁案上选边站队，认为这是中菲的双边问题，另一方面这个三方声明仍一口咬定充满争议的所谓裁决具有法律约束力；一方面世界上70多个国家以不同方式表达理解和支持中国的正当立场，另一方面这个三方声明仍在明里暗里指责中国。①http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/w jbzhd/t1384333.shtm l,visited on August20,2016.这个声明的发表很不合时宜，与形势的发展极不和谐。这个声明与本地区国家正在维护南海稳定的努力不相符合，与本地区人民希望南海局势降温的愿望不相符合，与域外国家应发挥建设性作用不相符合。

仲裁裁决公布后不久，媒体一度披露，美国政府通过“静悄悄”的外交劝说菲律宾、印尼、越南和其他东亚国家不要利用裁决采取过激行动。报道说，消息来源显示，“这些信息有些是通过美国驻各国大使馆或各国驻华盛顿使馆传递的，有些则是国防部长卡特和国务卿克里等高级官员直接传递的。美国呼吁各国保持冷静，而非纠结各国共同针对中国，为的是避免让这样一种猜测成为事实，即美国正在领导一个遏制中国的同盟。”②Lesley W roughton,"QuietDiplomacy to Ease SCSTensions",the Jakarta Post,July 15,2016.然而，上述消息与美国官员后来实际的所作所为有很大出入。从奥巴马总统到克里国务卿都多次声称，仲裁裁决是“最终的、有法律约束力的”。③Ben Otto,"Kerry Backs Bilateral Talks in Maritime Spat"美军太平洋司令部司令哈里斯在东京智库“日本重建倡议”（RJIF）主办的“日美军人政治家论坛”上发表演讲时，要求包括中国在内的相关国家“尊重基于《公约》的仲裁机制”。由于中国拒绝接受仲裁结果，哈里斯表示，亚太地区数十年来的和平与繁荣是“基于规则的秩序”带来的，“不能被特定国家随意左右”。④共同社：《美军太平洋司令部司令哈里斯在东京发表演讲》，2016年7月27日。哈里斯显然是暗示中国不守规则，谋求左右规则制定。

然而，包括哈里斯在内的美国官员心里明白，南海问题被炒得这么热，正是他们几年来努力的结果。至于规则，在他们看来，什么叫规则，以及谁可以左右规则，也只能由美国说了算。2009年以来，美国高官反复发表讲话，对中国的南海政策说三道四，对与中国有争议的国家则明确予以支持。美国在南海问题上奉行“双重标准”，一方面对中国的岛礁建设横加指责，另一方面却选择性无视越南、菲律宾等国在南海非法占领中国42个岛礁，并从上世纪80年代至今持续推进岛礁建设的事实。美国的“亚太再平衡”战略让一些声索国产生了幻觉，它们一厢情愿地认为，只要有美国撑腰，就能通过对抗解决南海问题。美国习惯于在全球事务中既当警察又当法官，喜欢制定评判是非的标准，并由自己来把握执行的尺度。中国坚定支持建立以公正合理的规则为基础的国际秩序，但国际法制应为整个国际社会所遵守，而不应沦为一些国家借以实现政治企图的工具。⑤Xu Bu,"US'Rebalancing'is Fishing in S.China Sea's TroubledWaters",The Straits Times,May 19,2016.

四、一些国家不会放弃在南海浑水摸鱼的政策

从今年东亚合作系列外长会可以看出，两股势力、两种观点的交锋是明显的。一些国家不愿意看到形势缓和下来，对搬弄是非、挑拨离间有特别浓厚的兴趣。日本政府官员对炒作南海问题尤其热情高涨。安倍晋三首相、岸田文雄外相不失一切时机渲染南海问题，为仲裁裁决站台。8月12日，岸田文雄结束他在仲裁裁决后对菲律宾的首次访问，此访一项重要成果是日方将向菲方赠送两艘巡逻舰。据披露，岸田文雄劝说菲新政府坚持仲裁裁决，不要与中国进行双边磋商。日本共同社评论说，日菲两国表面看上去合拍，事实上态度并不一致，“日本希望继续在南海问题上摆出强硬立场，而菲律宾新政府却因重视对华关系不愿激化矛盾”。①《外媒热议中菲关系重新点燃》，《亚太日报》2016年8月14日。《日经新闻》称，“如果菲律宾倾向同中国进行双边谈判，东盟步调有可能发生混乱”。不难看出，对菲律宾可能与中国开启双边谈判，日本似乎比谁都着急。这种奇怪的心态，是常人难以理解的。

美国官方和舆论对东盟内南海声索国与中国进行双边谈判的阻挠也不会放松。在日本外相岸田文雄到访菲律宾之前，美国国务卿克里在今年东亚合作系列外长会结束后就匆匆前往访菲，一面说支持中菲谈判，另一面又强调所谓仲裁裁决的约束力。②Ben Otto,"Kerry Backs Bilateral Talks in Maritime Spat",美国记者维加·约瑟挑拨说，东盟各国的不同立场在万象外长会上彻底展示出来，“过去一直被吹嘘的东盟团结一团糟，中国将变得更加强硬”。③Vijay Joshi,"Chinaw illbe Tougherafter the ASEAN Foreign M inistersMeeting",The New York Times,July17.哈佛大学教授沃尔特·克莱门斯赤裸裸地呼吁东盟国家一致对抗中国。他说，“中国不希望面对一个团结的东盟，它总是在试图分化和压服各个国家。单独面对中国，东盟国家没有任何优势可言，中国反倒可以软硬兼施，逼迫各国就范。十个东盟国家只有团结起来才可以抵制和平衡一个扩张主义的中国”。④http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/asean−and−the−logic−of−collective−action/,July 28,2016,visited on August20,2016.一些西方学者把矛头指向柬埔寨，称其反对东盟支持仲裁裁决导致了东盟的分裂。美国伍德罗·威尔逊国际学者中心的贝恩德·谢佛认为，让柬埔寨这样一个不是南海声索方而且是东盟成员国中唯一一个尚未批准《公约》的国家在这一争议中承担如此重要的角色是“有违常理”的。⑤VOA,"Cambodia hasa Price to Pay"July 30,2016.

美国上述学者的观点充满了傲慢，其逻辑是强盗式的：似乎一个国家只有支持仲裁裁决，才是作出了正确选择；似乎东盟只有站在与中国对抗的一面，美国才能认可东盟是团结一致的；似乎中国只有甘愿让东盟批判自己，才不算是在分裂东盟；似乎别的国家不批准《公约》就没资格对有关问题发表看法，而同样是没批准《公约》的美国则可以为所欲为；似乎中国奉行睦邻友好的周边政策倒成了扩张主义者，而美国在世界上到处找敌人、到处采取军事行动倒是个和平主义者。这是西方文明优越论的典型表现，也是美国人根深蒂固的超级大国霸权观念的集中反映。这甚至引起西方自身一些舆论的疑问。美联社记者7月26日从万象发出的一篇报道指出，“一个很有趣的现象是，在美日澳就仲裁裁决发表强硬声明的同时，和解的情绪充斥在万象中国与东盟国家的外长会上，那些与中国存在领土争议的国家对指责中国反而没有太多热情。”这位记者写道，“菲律宾对东盟发表措辞强硬的联合声明也没有太过强求，菲一直强调仲裁案是菲单方面提起的诉讼，暗示东盟不应该介入其中。马来西亚外长则自始至终都没有出现在会议上。文莱在会议上称赞中国的领导能力。越南副外长黎怀忠告诉记者，越南倾向于同中国进行双边谈判解决领土争议”。①"The ASEAN CountriesVoice forReconciliation",The Jakarta Post,July 30,2016.

东亚战略态势呈现出来的复杂局面是前所未有的。美国仍然是超级大国，在东亚地区的政治、军事及经济格局中具有重要影响力。中国成为世界第二大经济体，是东盟所有国家的最大贸易伙伴和重要投资来源。日本、澳大利亚等国对中国正在上升成为东亚最重要的政治和经济大国深感不安，尤其是日本对自身影响力的下降越来越焦虑。东盟内也有一些国家对中国的崛起感到担忧，希望借助美国制衡中国，但它们又看到中国在政治和经济等方面对本地区的引领作用，谋求加强与中国的务实合作。东盟国家明白，仲裁裁决之后现实没有任何改变，有关分歧最终仍必须通过外交手段和平协商解决。美国官员也清楚，仲裁裁决不会产生实际效果，走得太远可能给中美关系造成更大的损害，但同时又幻想可以利用裁决继续挑起东盟国家对中国的不满，借此给中国的周边稳定制造麻烦。由此，我们看到美国官员的言行不时出现自相矛盾的情形。

裁决结果出来后，中方并未做出激烈反应，没有像西方媒体大量猜测并炒作的那样“在南海上空划设防空识别区，夺取其他南沙岛礁的控制权，退出《公约》”等。③Kor Kian Beng,"Beijing'sResponse restrained so far",the Straits Times,July 15,2016.新加坡《海峡时报》说，这是因为中方认为仲裁裁决不过是“一张废纸”，从另一个角度看，中方所展示的克制“体现了中国的自信”。④Kor Kian Beng,"Beijing'sResponse restrained so far",the Straits Times,July 15,2016.这个评论不禁让笔者想起了7月26日东亚峰会外长会后目睹的有趣一幕。针对美日澳三方于25日深夜发表的涉南海仲裁案三方声明，王毅外长在东亚峰会上进行了严辞批判。会议结束后，美国国务卿克里立即走到王毅外长跟前说，美日澳昨晚发表的三方声明最后一刻才到他手里，他没有仔细看内容就签发了，他对由此给中方带来的困惑感到抱歉。由于澳大利亚外长与王毅外长座位相邻，当克里对王毅外长说上述一番话时，澳大利亚官员也在现场。据说，美日澳三方声明是日本出的主意。

南海仲裁案是试金石，检验的是域外国家是真心维护地区和平还是要搅乱南海局势。对于本地区大多数国家而言，它们关注的是如何维护本地区的和平、稳定和发展。一些域外国家对临时仲裁庭作出的所谓裁决兴奋不已，干扰了本地区的正常秩序，损害了本地区国家的整体利益。这种状况正在引起越来越多国家的担忧、反感和抵制。环顾世界，很多地区形势动荡不定。东亚地区是本地区国家的共同家园，多年的稳定与发展来之不易。地区乱了，域外势力可以抽身而退，但本地区国家无路可退，而且还要面对和解决各种后遗症。正如王毅外长所说，无谓的政治操弄与炒作，必须尽快退烧降温，还南海以安宁，还地区以稳定。①http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/w jbzhd/t1384214.shtm l,visited on August20,2016.

The49thAMM and relatedmeetingswere convened in Vientiane,LaosPDR from 24 to26 July 2016. The Meetingswereheld againsta backdrop featuring East Asia haunted by a tense and fluid situation inthe South China Sea,fresh issuance of the award of arbitration case and certain forces both w ithin and outside the region trying to point fingersatChina.Therefore,theMeetingsattracted keenattention from the countries related and the international community.Therewere concernson how theMeetingswould proceed,whether theMeetingswould behijacked by the South China Sea issueandwhat theoutcome documentswould look like.TheMeetings later turned outthatmoreandmore regionalcountries feltupset about the regional practical cooperation being hijacked by the South China Sea issue,and showed resentmenttowardstheexternal forcesrecklessly hyping thearbitration case,which indicated thatseeking stability and cooperationwere still common aspirationsof the countries in our region.

I.The Arbitration Award GeneratingW idespread Worries

On12 July 2016,anarbitral tribunalon theSouth ChinaSea issue,puttogetherona temporary basis upon theunilateral requestby the former government of the Republic of the Philippines,issued the so−called award.Itwaswellexpected thatthisbiased award completely supported the Philippines'position. As immediate responses from China,the ChineseM inistry of Foreign A ffairs(MFA)issued astatement to affirm China's staunch positionofnon−acceptanceand non−recognition on theaward.At the same time, theMFAwasalso authorized to issue the Statementof theGovernmentof the People'sRepublic of Chinaon China's TerritorialSovereignty and MaritimeRightsand Interests in the South ChinaSea,and theChinese Foreign M inisterWang Yialsomade remarkson this issue.On 13 July,the Chinesegovernment issued a White Paper titled China Adheres to the Position of Settling through Negotiation the RelevantDisputes between Chinaand the Philippinesin the SouthChina Sea.Chinamaintainsaclear−cutposition thattheso−called award is null,void and of no binding force,and China neither acceptsnor recognizes it.

Such countriesoutside the regionas the U.S.and Japan did theirutmostto hype thearbitration case and reck lessly m isinterpreted the UNCLOS,incited on purpose the arbitration court to abuse its authority and evenmanipulated the composition of arbitration tribunalmembersoutof politicalmotives. In fact,theessenceof the subject−matterof thearbitration is the territorialsovereignty oversome islands and reefs in the South China Seaandmustnotbeseparated from maritimedelim itation between Chinaand the Philippines.The issues concerning territorialsovereignty are notsubject to the UNCLOS.In 2006, inaccordancewith Article298of theUNCLOS,China filed thedeclaration toexclude,interalia,disputes concerning maritime delim itation from compulsory arbitration and other compulsory dispute settlement procedures.A lthough the Philippines claimed that they did not seek the rulings on issues concerning territorial sovereignty andmaritime delim itation,the Philippines,during thewhole arbitration process and especially in the courthearings,did insist to deny China's territorialsovereignty andmaritime rights in the South China Sea.In thissense,thearbitration casevirtually setavery bad precedentby discarding thepasteffectiveapproach to peacefully solve thedisputes through dialogueand consultationby theparties directly concerned,denying bilateralagreements between China and the Philippines to resolve disputes through consultationsand violating the Philippines'solemn comm itmentin theDeclarationon theConduct of Parties in the South China Sea(DOC)in 2002.

Atpresent,theUSand otherwestern countriesaredom inantinmanipulating themedia in theworld, thusenjoying enormousadvantages in agenda setting,opinion shaping,technologicaledge,top−notchequipmentsand communication capacities.Meanwhile,thedeveloping countries faceadilemmainstead, either follow ingwestern countriesatthe latter'sdisposal,orbeing regarded asdissidents,demonized and pressured by western countries.There exists a yawning gap of international rights of speech between emerging powersand developed western countries.When the award cameout,thewesternmedia tried itsutmost to blacken China'sname,slingingmud againstChina,churning outsuch issuesas so−called" international laws","rules"and"order",and labeling China as"law−breaker"and"rule−destroyer". However,therearestillsomeobvious loopholesand fallacies in thearbitration case found,evenby some western expertswho castquestionsand doubtson theaward,mainly as follows:

First,the so−called aw ard is politically motivated in obvious terms.The Australian experts said that the award virtually pushed the Chinese leaders into a tight corner,butnot a single great pow erwas likely to accept an international legal verdict thatm ight harm its national interests. A t a sem inar held in Singapore,some senior law experts commented that,from the perspective of international law,the aw ard w as quite"bold"and the arbitrators seem ingly comm itted them selvesw ith a"m ission"to further develop international law s.On law issues,"bold"and" innovative"are definitely not com p liments because the top priorities of arbitrators should be adhering to theexisting rules instead of introducing so−called new rules.TheUNCLOSwasa treaty signed by sovereign states and the ad hoc arbitral tribunal has no rightmaking decisions on any rules related.The experts from Griffith University of Australia pointed out that the tribunal's award broke the'ambiguous balance'in the South China Sea disputes.A lthough the arbitration should have beenmeant to resolve themaritime disputes in the South China Sea,the aw ard,on the contrary,resulted in unintended negative im plicationson regionalsecurity.For the Philippines, since the tribunal does not have enforcementmechanism,this nom inal victory canno t be automatically or easily transferred into substantial territorial and maritime gains.The arbitration may have ushered in a new eraof disputes,but itcannotchange thenatureof theworld politicswhich isbasedmoreon power than rules.

Second,theaward isquiteunprofessional.Someinternational law experts from theUSand European countriesmade it clear that the arbitral tribunal produced a strictdefinition of"island"and createdmore troubles rendering negative implications not only on China's dispute with the Philippines in the South ChinaSea.Thearbitral tribunalviolated theprinciplesof international law by downgrading the legalstatus of Taiping Island to a"rock"deprived ofmaritime rights,despite the fact that Taiping Island covers an area of about0.5 square kilometersas the largestnaturally formed island among Nansha Zhudao.Peter Coyw rote that,aChinesedisputehad a rippleeffectonexclusiveeconom iczonesaround theworld.The USand other littoralnations could losem illions of square nauticalm iles of ocean thatarenow in their exclusive econom ic zones.An expert from Massachusetts Institute of Technology also illustrated that, according to thehighand strictcriteriasetby theaward,the current legalstatusofsome"islands"claimed by related countrieswould be running against the award and should be downgraded to"rocks",such as Okinotoriclaimed by Japan and Kingman Reef claimed by the USw ith a 200−nautical−m ile exclusive econom ic zone in the North Pacific.

Third,theaward seriously interferesw ith theeffortsto resolvedisputes throughnegotiations.ManySoutheastAsian scholarsheld theview thatthenew Philippinegovernment,on theeveof theaward being given,sentoutsignalson severaloccasions that the Philippineswould like to solve the South China Sea issuew ith China through bilateral consultation.However,with domestic hysterical sentiments towards theaward,itisevenharder for the Philippines togiveup theassumedly obtained rights.While forChina whose claimswere rejected,itisequally impossible to flyawhite flagundertremendousdomestic pressure ofnationalism.Itisnoteasy for the claimantstomakecomprom ises.Tang Siew Mun,a researcher from Yusof Ishak Instituteof Singapore viewed that,ASEAN had no reason to be deeply involved into the arbitration case because the arbitration itselfwasnot initiated by ASEAN and requiresno solutions from ASEAN.As the Australian scholars justsaid,differentclaimantshad interpreted the UNCLOS tomake claimsin theirown favor.No country had unchallenged claimsin the SouthChinaSea.The legalambiguity provided certain flexibility for all claimants tomanage their behavior and left room for comprom ise if deemed necessary.

Theaward virtually putanend to thisambiguity and itwould benaive to believe thatan award could resolve the disputes.Facing the domestic pressure,especially mounting nationalistic sentiments from w ithin,the Chinesegovernmenthad to take suchmeasuresasm ilitary exercises.Theaward also runsa risk of letting the Philippines and other potential beneficiaries of the award to becomemore assertive to takeunwiseactions.

Fourth,theawardw illgive rise tomore fiercecompetitionbetween Chinaand theUS.An Australia scholar said in hisarticle China Loses in CourtbutWins at Sea that the South China Sea issue does not onlymean disputes of overlapping territorial sovereignty ormaritime resources between China,the Philippinesand otherclaimants,butalsoa touchstone to testhow Chinaand theUS,astwomajorpowers, would dealw ith each other in the power shifting.As the strategic competitors,there exists possibility thatChina and the USmay end up in confrontation and strategicm iscalculation in the South China Sea. Once it happens,the world's busiest trade route will be haunted by unpredictable and uncontrollable conflicts.Up tillnow,Australia is actually reluctant to stay too close to the US,thus refraining from taking partin theUS−led patroloperationsaround the islandsand rocksunderChina'scontrol.Theexperts from theSchoolof InternationalRelationsofGriffith University of Australiasaid thatallparties,especially China and the US,should cool down emotions,lower expectations,avoid conflicts,shelve disputes and seek cooperation.

Fifth,theawardmay underm ine thesecurity and freedom of tradein the South China Sea.According to the USmedia,the award sparked theworries of trade security because the award by arbitral tribunal denying China's claim s overmost of South China Sea did bring about enormous uncertainties for regionalshipping and trade.Shipping companieshave longworried thatescalating tensions in the South China Sea could affectglobalcommerce.Theaward on 12 July"could embolden smallerAsian countries to bemoreassertive regarding their rights in thesewaters,increasing run−inswith China and leading to possible disruptions of freedom of navigation."Eric Shimp,a former U.S.trade representative to ASEAN,said thepotential for conflictincreases ifgovernmentsinterprettheaward asanasserted control. Heemphasized,"If thereisagovernment−backed increasein commercew ithouta concurrentconversation w ith the Chinese,that issomething that rampsup the potential for conflict".

Sixth,the Philippines'loss in essenceoutweighs itsgains in face.In hisarticle"The South China Seaarbitration case:Who reallywon?",the AustralianexpertChengxin Pan said,thearbitration award even shockedmany expertswho had alwaysanticipated China'sdefeat.But"Will theaward herald anew era in the long−running South China Sea disputes?Will theaward benefit the Philippinesand other small claimants?The jury,Ithink,is stillout."Chengxin Pan said,"We should notbeblind to the fact that the disputeshave never been purely a legalor technicalmatter.The biased and one−sided nature of the awardmakes iteven harder to be implemented.Whetherbeing islandsornot,these features in the South China Seahave longbeen regarded assymbolsofsovereignty.A one−sided arbitration is far from enough addressing the issue."AsHarvard ProfessorGraham Allisonnoted,"Noneof the fivepermanentmembers of the UN Security Councilhave ever accepted any international court's ruling when,in their view,it infringed upon their sovereignty or national security interests."If the US,along with the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries,now decide to drive a harder bargain against China,Beijing w ill feel compelled to build itsm ilitary infrastructure to respond in kind.Chinam ightemerge asabiggerwinner if this legalvictorymakes some politiciansacton thebelief that it'snow time to rein in Beijing.

Seventh,the award will have no substantive implications on China's policy.Andrei Ostrovsky, Deputy Director of the Institute of the Far Eastern Studies(IFES)of Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS),stated in hisarticle published on the Russian newspaper Pravda that,"For China,being given theaward by the arbitration court in the Hague is nomore than being stung by amosquito.In principle, the arbitration does not substantially impact China.It ismerely a record of anxieties of theWestern countries towards China's rising in political fields.In otherwords,it is the so−called wedging.The arbitrationhas littlevalue in termsofactual implementation."The Indonesian Foreign M inisterRetno LP Marsudinoted that,"Everybody knowsthatthearbitration rulingon12 July isnotaverdictthatw ill resolve anyoutstanding issueson borderdelim itation among claimantstates.As for the issueofdelim itation itself,itisup to the claimants to clear thingsup.During the ASEAN−China Foreign M inisterialMeeting, both the Philippines and Chinamade statements that they were ready to start negotiating,and that is somethingwehighly appreciate.We'llleaveitto them to carry outthenegotiationsasthey see fit.Foreign M inister Retno said,"Themain concern of Indonesia in the South China Sea is the issue of stability. History and experiencehaveshown timeand again thatoncean area isprone to powerprojections,itw ill becomeevenmore complicated.Once thepushand pullbegins,itbecomesvery difficult foreverybody. To ensure that the region remains peaceful iswhatwe strive for."Channelnewsasia.com published an articleon14 July saying that,ASEAN has released jointstatementsexpressing concernsover the issueof South China Sea,while taking carenotto singleoutChina.ASEAN failed to issuea jointstatementafter theaward,the formerPhilippineUN representative Lauro Bajasaid,"This indicatesthat,since the South China Sea issuew illpotentially divide ASEAN,we should no longerexpect in the future that therewill bean ASEAN statementon China".

II.ASEAN Countries Valuing PracticalCooperation w ith China

The year2016marks the25thAnniversary of China−ASEANDialogueRelations.Both sidesstarted theirdialogueprocess in 1991and the relationshipwaselevated toastrategic dialoguepartnership in 2003.In theafternoon of24 July,afterhisarrival,Foreign M inisterWang Yiimmediately kicked off intensive bilateralmeetings.In themorning of 25 July,China−ASEAN Foreign M inisters'Meeting was held in Vientiane in a friendly atmosphere.80%of theMeeting focused on developmentand cooperation.For dialogue partnersof ASEAN,their respective session w ith ASEAN(also known as10+1)is themost substantiveone.For example,China−ASEANmeeting is themost importantone for China.It is the occasion onwhich Chinaand ASEAN hold their in−depth discussionson practical cooperation in allareas concerned and issue relevantstatementsordocumentson cooperation.The related ForeignM inistershave recognized that,among ASEAN's ten dialoguepartners,Chinastandsoutas the closestoneand China−ASEAN cooperation hasbeenmostpracticaland fruitful.

During the past 25 years,dialoguemechanisms have been established at all levels and in various areasbetween Chinaand ASEAN,and high−levelexchangesbetween the two sideshavebeen frequent. Amongalldialoguepartners,Chinawas the firstto sign the Treaty of Am ity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia,the firsttoestablishastrategic partnershipw ith ASEAN,the firsttoexpresswillingness to sign the protocol to SoutheastAsian Nuclear−Weapon−Free Zone Treaty and the first to confirm building a free tradeareaw ith ASEAN.The two sideshaveestablished a completedialogueand cooperation system at leaders',ministers'and seniorofficials'levels.Bothsideshavesetupm inisterialmeetingmechanismsrelated to theaffairsconcerningdiplomacy,economy,transport,directors−generalin chargeof customs,prosecutors−general,youth,health,telecommunications,press,quality control,combating transnational crimes, law enforcementand security cooperation.Atsenior−officialandworking levels,bothsideshaveestablished cooperation and dialoguemechanisms inmore than 20 areas.China and ASEAN concluded the Plan of Action to Implement the JointDeclaration on China-ASEAN Strategic Partnership for Peaceand Prosperity (2016−2020)in November2015,drawingablueprint forChina−ASEAN relationsover thenextfiveyears. Multi−tiered exchangesand practicalcooperationhaveprovided an importantplatform fordeepeningmutual trustand laid a solid foundation for the sound and stabledevelopmentof relations.

Tradeand investmentcooperation isan im portantpillar of China−ASEAN bilateral relations. Our trade volume topped US$472 billion in 2015,almost 60 times larger than that of 1991, w hich w asonly US$7960m illion.China has been ASEAN's biggest trading partner for seven consecutive yearsw hile ASEAN ranked as China's third largest trading partner for five consecutive years.Our tw o−w ay investment in aggregate grew from US$500 m illion in 1991 to US$156.4 billion in 2015,more than 300 times larger.China and ASEAN are cooperating in 11 major fields:agriculture,IT,human resource development,investment,theM ekong Riverdevelopment, transport,energy,culture,tourism,public health and environment.Our cooperation in trade, investment and industry has been g row ing c loser and c loser to form an interdependen t and interconnected pattern of grow th.Both sides established the largest Free Trade A rea(FTA)of developing countries in 2010,and reached the agreementon upgrading our FTA in 2015,which has entered into effect on 1 July 2016.We have prom oted rem arkable peop le−to−peop le exchanges.The peop le−to−peop le exchange volume in 2003 only stood at 3.87m illion person times.The figure rocketed to 23m illion in 2015.Chinahasbecome the largestsource of foreign tourists to ASEAN.

China has actively participated in the ASEAN−led mechanisms of regional cooperation.The two sides have conducted various cooperation and exchanges under such frameworks as ASEAN−China (10+1),ASEAN Regional Forum(ARF),ASEAN Defense M inisters'Meeting Plus(ADMM−Plus) and ASEAN−China,Japanand South Korea(APT).Chinahasproposedover100 initiativesof cooperation under the framework of10+1.Under the frameof APT,Chinahasproactively participated and promoted cooperationon key areas,i.e.financialsecurity,tradeand investment,agricultureand poverty reduction, thuselevating the construction of the East Asian Econom ic Community.Chinahasactively safeguarded the EASasa"leaders−led strategic forum"and advanced cooperation in six key areas,thusmaking itsdue contribution to the development of the EAS.China always actively participates in the dialogue and cooperationunder the ARF framework.Chinahasheldmore than40 cooperation projectssince theForum was founded and cooperation projectsundertaken by Chinaaccount forone third of the totalARFprojects each year,ranking the firstamong ARFmembers.It fully shows thatChinasupports the developmentof the ARFw ith concreteactions.

Dealing w ith non−traditional security threatshas constituted an importantpartof China−ASEAN security cooperation.The two sideskeep expanding theirm ilitary and defenseexchangesand cooperation. In 2011,the defensem inistersof Chinaand ASEAN had exchanges for the first time.In 2015,the1st China−ASEAN DefenseM inisters InformalMeetingand theChina−ASEANM inisterialDialogueon Law Enforcementand Security Cooperation were held.The tw o sides have held the ASEAN Plus China M inisterialMeeting on Transnational Crime(AMMTC+China)every two years since1997 and signed the China−ASEAN Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Field of Non−Traditional Security.Under thismechanism,the two sideshavemaintained close cooperation in combating drug trafficking,illegalm igration,pirates,terrorism,armssmuggling,money launderingand international econom ic and cyberspace crimes.The Chinese Prem ier LiKeqiang proposed at the18th China−ASEAN Leaders'Meeting to jointly elevatesecurity cooperation,noting thatChinahopes to see the current Informal DefenseM inisters'Meeting institutionalized atanearly date,and explorewith ASEAN setting up adirect linebetween theChineseand ASEAN defenseauthoritiesand establishaChina−ASEAN law−enforcement academy in due course.Prem ier Lialso suggested thatChinawould provide2,000 training opportunities for the law−enforcementagenciesof ASEAN countries in thenext five years.

China−ASEAN relations are standing at a critical pointof linking the past and the future.At the China−ASEAN ForeignM inisters'Meetingon25 July,ForeignM inistersofASEAN countriesunderlined the significanceof China−ASEAN relationsand looked forward tomaking them even stronger.Foreign M inister Vivian Balakrishnan of Singapore said thatsharing the same goalofmaintaining the peace and stability of the region,ASEAN and China should takea forward−lookingapproach.M inisterof Foreign A ffairs and Trade IILim Jock Seng of Brunei said that China hasmade significant contributions to maintaining regional peace and stability.China's"One Belt,One Road"initiative aswellas the Asian Infrastructure InvestmentBank(AIIB)initiated by Chinawillbring about largeropportunities for the development in the region.Foreign M inister Don Pramudwinaiof Thailand mentioned that China is a close neighbor to ASEAN.The two sides have great potential for cooperation in the fields of trade, investment,tourism and connectivity.State Counselor and Foreign M inister Aung San Suu KyiofMyanmarnoted thatChina isagood friend to bothMyanmarand ASEAN asawhole.Despite theexisting divergences,the two sides are confident thatdivergences could be solved properly.Foreign M inister Saleumxay Kommasithof Laos said thatthe developmentofChinabringsabouttremendousopportunities for ASEAN countries.The two sides share common interests.Laos thanks China for itshelp to Laos' econom ic development.Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay of the Philippines said that,in the past 25 years,China−ASEAN relationshaveyielded fruitful results.Chinahasbecome thebiggesttrading partner. The AIIBw illhelp boost theeconom ic grow th of ASEAN countries.Foreign M inister Pham Binh M inh of VietNam pointed out that ASEAN−China tiesare themostsubstantialand fastest−growing among all dialoguepartners.VietNam attachesgreatimportance to thisspecial relationw ithChina.ForeignM inister Retno LPMarsudiof Indonesiamentioned thatChinaand ASEAN are friends,whose tradeand econom ic relations are growing closer and closer.Peace,stability and security are vital to the two sides.The Secretary General Tan SriOthman Hashim ofMalaysian Foreign M inistrymentioned that therehavebeen frequentexchanges inallaspectsand hoped thattheyearof 2017,tobe themed asChina−ASEAN Tourism Cooperation Year,could bring aboutmorepeople−to−peopleexchanges.Secretary of Stateand M inister of Foreign Affairsand International Cooperation Prak Sokhon of Cambodia said thatChina is the closest cooperation partner.Substantialprogresshasbeenmadeacross theboard.

As for thenextphaseof China−ASEAN relations,China put forward six key tasks,which received positive response from ASEAN countries:First,the two sides need to well host the commemorative summ itmarking the25thanniversaryof theestablishmentofChina−ASEANDialogueRelations.Through close cooperation,both sidesshould promote thesuccessof the Summ itsoas to send outapositivesignal. Second,the two sidesshould continue to promotepracticalcooperation so thatthe protocolonupgrading theChina−ASEAN Free Trade Areasigned in 2015China−ASEAN Leaders'Meeting could beeffectively implemented as soon as possible,econom ic and trade contacts can be further expanded,and industrial transformation and upgradew illbeadvanced.Third,the two sidesneed to createnew pillars for social, people−to−peopleand cultural cooperation.The two sideshave achieved tremendous progress in both fieldsofpoliticalsecurity,andeconom ic cooperationand trade.For thenextstep,both sidesw illprioritize educationand tourism and generate new driving forces for people−to−people exchangesand cultural cooperation.This year is China−ASEAN Education Exchange Year and China−ASEAN Tourism Cooperation Yearw ill be held in 2017.Fourth,the two sides should deepen cooperation in political security.China reiteratesitsw illingness tonegotiateand sign the Treaty ofGood Neighborly and Friendly Cooperation between China and the ASEAN with the ASEAN as soon as possible.China supports the ASEAN'sefforts in building the Southeast Asian nuclearweapon−free zone and isw illing to sign the related protocolw ith the ASEAN atan early date.Fifth,the two sidesneed to develop new platform s forsub−regional cooperation.China isw illing to help the ASEAN to narrow down internaldevelopment gap through the Lancang−Mekong Cooperation Mechanism andmakenew contributions to thebuilding of ASEANCommunityand the ASEAN integration process.Sixth,the two sidesshould jointly safeguard regionalpeaceand stability.Weagree toproceed from theoverallsituation,focuson cooperation,properly dealw ith differences,hold the key of regionalpeaceand stability in ourown handsand jointly explorea developmentpath conform ing to regional reality.

AttheMeeting,some countriesdidmention the South China Seasituation and the related issues. Foreign M inisters,in the spirit ofmutual respectandmutual trust,have exchanged views on these issues from a positive perspective.They allbelieve that the disputes over some islands and reefs of Nansha Zhudao are not an issue between China and ASEAN.These issues shall neither define China−ASEAN relationsnor com prom ise the overall developmentof China−ASEAN relations in the meantime.ASEAN,as awhole,takes no position on the arbitration case unilaterally initiated by the former Philippinegovernment,makesno commentson theaward and takesno sides.ASEAN regards the South China Sea issue asa bilateral issuebetween Chinaand the Philippinesand supports the two sides to seek solutions through bilateral dialoguesand consultations.Foreign M inisterWang Yisaid thattheaward given by the tem porary arbitral tribunal is fundamentally flawed and completely lacks legal basis.As this page has been turned over,the fever of unnecessary sensation caused by itshould be cooled down and thingsneed to beset right in the South China Sea issue.The Philippine Foreign Secretary Yasay also said that the Philippines didn't seek support from ASEAN or the international community during the process ofarbitration,and the Philippines didn'tw ant to see a divided ASEAN or an angered China because of arbitration.The arbitration award is notwhat ASEAN needs tohandlew ith,butthe issuebetween the Philippinesand China.Secretary Yasay also pointed out thatw hether you believe the victory belongs to the Philippines or China,w hat really counts is thatwe are seeking to peacefully resolve the disputes.Themost practicalway out for the disputes is stillup to the Philippinesand China.

In order tobring the South China Sea issueback onto the righttrack,Chinaproposed thatForeign M inisters of China and ASEAN countries issue a Joint Statem ent on the Full and Effective Implementationof theDOC,whichwasunanimously supported by allASEANMember States.China always believes that the DOC is a regional rule commonly agreed upon and upheld by China and ASEAN countries asw ell as a guideline to safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea. Denying thebinding forceof the DOC simply by a pieceof ruling isan actdefam ing thedeterm ination and credibility ofallDOC signatories.This isunacceptable.The core contentsof the JointStatement issued on 25 July are that the disputes should be peacefully settled by parties directly concerned through dialogues and consultations and that the stability in the South China Sea should be jointly safeguarded by China and ASEANmembers.This is precisely the"dual−track approach"proposed by ASEAN and advocated by China.China believes that the"dual−track approach"isan effective and correctway tomaintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and resolve the South China Sea disputes.The Joint Statement has sent a clearmessage that China and ASEAN w ill jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea.Italso shows thatChinaand ASEAN have the capability andw isdom tomake the South China Seaaseaof peaceand cooperation.Ithelpsallparties enhancemutual trustand return to the right track of resolving disputes through bilateral dialogue and negotiation,aswellas sending a positive signal thatChinaand ASEAN w ill jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea.It also shows that China and ASEAN are jointly comm itted through this Joint Statement to pull the South China Sea issue back to the right track of peacefully solving the disputes through consultation by parties directly concerned.

III.TheUS,Japan and Australia:Troublemakers for RegionalPeaceand Stability

The EastAsiameetingson cooperationare convened on three levels:SeniorOfficials'Meetings(usual ly attended by officials at the vice−ministerial level),Foreign M inisters'Meetings and Leaders'Meetings. Normally,SOMsw illbeheld twiceayear,while FMMsand Leaders'Meetingsareheld onceayear.These meetingsareboth independentand interrelated.Theoretically,SOMs,FMMsand Leaders'Meetingsallhave theirownagendasettings.Meanwhile,SOMsmakepreparations forFMMsand FMMsprepares for Leaders' Meetings.Leaders'Meetingsareseenastheclimax eventseach year.As for theabove−mentionedmeeting arrangements,each level isaccordinglymadeup ofmeetingscovering suchmechanismsas internalsessions among ASEAN Member States(AMS),10+1 sessionsmeaning meetings held between ASEAN and its dialoguepartners respectively,10+3 sessionsorknownasAPT sessions,EASsessionsand ARFsessions.

These seriesofmeetingsalwaysbeginw ith AMS internalsessions,to be followed by 10+1,10+3, EASand ARFsessions.Both EASand ARFare forum−likesessions.Thedifferencebetween the two is thatEAS isa"leaders−led strategic forum"focusing,based on itsoriginaldesign,on six priority areas of environmentand energy,education,finance,global health issues and pandemic diseases,natural disastermanagement,and ASEAN connectivity.ARF only convenes at senior officials'and foreign m inisters'levels,focusing on discussing security issues,establishing confidence−building measures, conducting preventive diplomacy,exploring ways to resolve conflictsand other relatedmatters.Under the ARF framework,countriesconcerned usually hold avariety ofsem inars,training coursesconcerning security issuesand exercises to dealwith non−traditionalsecurity issuesover the years.China is theone thathasundertaken themostprogramsandmade the largestcontribution among the ARFmembers.

Among theabove−mentionedmeetings,AMM istheonewithspecialsignificance.First,theAMM's agenda is themostwide−ranging and practical.Second,the AMM usually concludes themeeting with a JointCommuniqué,whichwould be issued after roundsof consultationsamong allmemberstates to show ASEAN'spositiononvarious issues.Third,unlike theAMM,othermeetingsincluding Leaders'Meetings willonly issueChairman'sStatementsasthemeeting documents.Therefore,the AMM JointCommuniqué isusually seen as themost formal and comprehensive outcome document.Fourth,the AMM Joint Communiquéisnotonly an importantbasis forall the related Chairman'sStatements,butalsoan important reference to the relevantdocumentsof the Leaders'Meetings tobeheld later.Since ASEAN emphasizes its centrality in regionalcooperation,and thecountriesoutside the regionhave repeatedlyexpressed theirsupport for ASEAN Centrality in regionalaffairs,the AMM JointCommuniquéisalso considered to be themost importantdocumentof all the East Asiameetings on cooperation.That's the reason why the AMM Joint Communiquéalwaysattractsextraordinary attention from the countriesbothwithinand outside the region.

The AMM this yearwas held on 24 July in Vientiane,Laos.The Foreign M inisters of ASEAN Member Stateshad discussions on w ide−ranging topics centering on the theme of"Turning Vision into Reality foraDynam ic ASEANCommunity".2016marks the firstyearsince theestablishmentof ASEAN Community.The Meeting recognized that ASEAN hadmade greatachievements in building ASEAN Political−Security Community,ASEANEconom ic Community and ASEANSocio−CulturalCommunity,butASEAN still faces considerable challenges.The titleof AMM JointCommuniquéthis year isalso" Turning Vision into Reality foraDynam ic ASEAN Community",breaking into9 parts,namely ASEAN Community Building,ASEANPolitical-Security Community,ASEANEconom icCommunity,ASEAN Socio−Cultural Community,ASEAN Connectivity,External Relations,ASEAN Regional Forum, Regional and International Issues,and the 50th AMM.Since the 49thAMM and related meetings are among themost important regionaldiplomatic eventsheld after thearbitration case,the South China Sea issue and the arbitration award received peculiar attention from western countries.Normally the Joint Communiquéshould be issued shortly after the AMM,but some external forces imposed enormous pressure onto ASEAN countries and countries like the Philippines and Vietnam made every effort to put wordings related toarbitration,large−scale constructionof islandsand reefsand othermattersinsinuating China into the JointCommuniqué,which wasopposed to by someother ASEAN countries and resulted in thedelay of issuance.Inorder to secureanearly ASEAN consensuson thewording related to the South China Sea issue,the Lao Foreign M inister Saluemxay followed the advice by the Indonesian Foreign M inisterRetnoand convened aspecialsessionof AMM.In themorningof25 July,the JointCommuniqué of the49thAMM was finally issued,w ithoutmentioning thearbitration caseon the South China Sea issue or its so−called award.

The South China Sea issue should be something only among the related claimants.Outof the four ASEAN claimantcountries,Vietnam and the Philippineshave significantdifferenceswith China,while Malaysia and Bruneiare comparativelymore low−key and rational in dealing w ith the South China Sea issue.The recentyearshasseen the issueheated up rapidlywhile the reasonsbehind arequitecomplicated. Ingeneral,firstand foremost,somecountriesm isjudged thesituationand attempted tounderm ineChina's sovereignty interests.They thought thatChinawould swallow thebitter fruits.Second,the politicians in some countrieswithin this region tried to take advantage of nationalism in order to shiftoff domestic problems and snatch politicalgains.Third,some countries outside the region are becom ingmore and more anxious aboutChina's rapid econom ic grow th,enhanced national strength and rising influence in the neighborhood.They tried to sow discord and drive wedges between China and its neighboring countries,especially ASEAN countriessoas toobstructChina−ASEAN friendly relationsand cooperation, and interferewith China's developmentprocess.Under such circumstances,the situation in the South China Seawashyped up since the US launched its so−called"Rebalance to Asia−Pacific Strategy".The countriesoriginally irrelevant to the South China Sea issuewerealldragged into this dispute.

If carefully reading through the AMM JointCommuniquéthis year,one could see that the Foreign M inistersof ASEAN countries have covered aw ide range of issuesand focused on how to further build ASEAN Community and strengthen practical cooperation among ASEAN Member States in political, econom ic,social,culturaland connectivity fields.The JointCommuniquéall in all includes9 parts and 192 paragraphs.The South China Sea issuewasmentioned in thesecond−to−the−lastpart"Regional and International Issues"and tookup8 paragraphs,accounting foronlyabout4%of the totalJointCommuni qué.Obviously,the South China Sea issuewas hyped by some countries,but itwas actually not the focus ofmost ASEAN countries.Sim ilar situation also appeared at China−ASEAN Foreign M inisters' Meeting(10+1)and APTForeignM inisters'Meeting(10+3)held on25 July.Mostof ASEANForeignM inisters stressed thatas the globaleconomy slowed down and regional countries faced challenges in improving people's livelihood,itshould be the top priority tomake thebestuseof the leading roleofChina's economy.When the Foreign M inisters of some individual countriesattempted to bring up the South ChinaSea issueatthemeeting,theThaiForeignM inisterDon clearly pointed outthatweshould putmore effortsonhow toachievesustainabledevelopment,instead ofwastingour timemeetingwith ForeignM inisterof such an importantcountry,China.

How ever,itwasunexpected that,as the AMM JointCommuniquérefrained from mentioning the arbitration award and other sensitive issues,such irrelevant countries to the South China Sea issueas the US,Japan and Australia became agitated and anxious.They w ere greatly dissatisfied that the AMM JointCommuniquédidn'tsupport the arbitration award and deeply disappointed that the JointCommuniquédidn't evenmention theword"arbitration".In this context,the USState Secretary and Japanese and Australian Foreign M inisters decided to throw in their gauntlets and came onto the stage.In the late night of 25 July,the US,Japan and Australia issued in haste a Tripartite Joint Statement to support the arbitration award and stress its legally binding nature.At the 6thEAS Foreign M inisters'M eeting on 26 July,the US State Secretary and Japanese and Australian Foreign M inisters continued to bring up topics concerning the arbitration.So people could clearly see that,on theonehand,countries in the region were determ ined to strengthen and deepen cooperation and looked forward to reducing tension in the South China Sea,while on the other hand,this Tripartite Joint Statementwas attempting to hype up the situation.On the one hand,countries in the region were reluctant to take sides on the arbitration issue and regarded it as a bilateral issue betw een China and the Philippines,while on the other hand,the Tripartite Joint Statement still insisted that the already controversial arbitration aw ard was legally binding. On the one hand,more than 70 countries in the world have expressed their understanding and support to China's justified stance in differentw ays,whileon theother hand,this Tripartite Joint Statement w as still trying to blame China straightforw ardly and obscurely.Therefore,this documentw as very ill−timed and w ent against the development of situation.It didn'tserve the effortsmade by regional countries tomaintain stability in the South China Sea,didn'tsuit thew ill of the peoples in the region to reduce the tension in the South China Sea,and didn'tgo along w ith a constructive role that the countries outside the region should have played.

Shortly after the issuanceof thearbitration award,somemedia reported that the USwasconducting quietdiplomacy to persuade the Philippines,Indonesia,Vietnam and otherAsian countriesnottouse the award and take aggressive actions.The reports said thatnews sources indicated that"some information was sent through the US embassies abroad and foreignm issions inWashington,and other information was conveyed directly to top officialsby Defense Secretary Ash Carter,State Secretary John Kerry and other US senior officials.This is a blanket call for quiet,not some attempt to rally the region against China,whichwould play intoa falsenarrative thattheUSis leadingacoalition to containChina".However, what the UShasbeen doing is fardifferent from theabove-mentioned reports.Both PresidentObamaand State Secretary Kerry have repeatedly claimed that the aw ard is"final and legally binding".At the Japan−USM ilitary Statesmen Forum held by a Tokyo−based think tank Rebuild Japan InitiativeFoundation(RJIF),Harry B.Harris,theUSCommanderof PacificCommand,requested thecountries including China to"respect the rightofarbitrationmechanisms provided forunder theUNCLOS".Since China refused to accept thearbitration award,Harris said that the peaceand prosperity of East Asia for decades are"the by−products of the rules−based order",and should not"subject to thewhims of any one country".Clearly,Harriswas implying thatChinawas theone thatdidn't follow the rulesand sought to manipulate the rule−making process.

However,the USofficials including Harris should be clear that ithasbeen their efforts for years to give rise to hyping of the South China Sea issue.As for the so−called"rules",in their view,only the UShas the finalsay aboutwhat the rulesareandwho couldmanipulate the rules.Since 2009,the US officials repeatedlymade irresponsible remarkson China's South China Sea policy and openly supported the countrieshaving disputeswith China.TheUSalwayspracticesdouble standardswhen itcomes to the South China Sea issue.While pointing fingersatChinaand criticizing China's construction effortson its own islandsand reefs,the US chose to ignore the fact that the Philippinesand Vietnam had illegally occupied allinall42 islandsand reefsin the South China Sea,and carried out land reclamationon relevant islandsand reefs starting from asearly as the1980s.The US rebalancing strategy did render illusions to some claimantcountries.They arew ishfully thinking that,w ith USenhanced backing,they could deal w ith the South China Sea issue through confrontation instead of consultation.The UShas becomeused to acting asa policeman or judgeon globalissues,and indulges itself inmaking rulesand dictatingways toexecute them.Chinaisastrong supporterofa rule−based internationalorder.However,theinternational ruleof law iswhat theentire international community follows,nota tool to beexploited by ahandfulof countries to pursue theirpoliticalagenda.

IV.Some Countries StillKeen on Fishing in Troubled Waters in the South China Sea

From the ASEAN Foreign M inisters'Meetingand relatedmeetings thisyear,we could sensea fierce confrontationbetween two forcesand two viewpoints.Some countrieswerenotw illing to see the tension relieved and keenly interested inmakingm ischief and driving wedges.The Japanese officialswere especially enthusiastic abouthyping up the South China Sea issue.Japanese PrimeM inister Shinzo Abe and Foreign M inister Fum io Kishida took every chance to hype up the South China Sea issue and the arbitrationaward.On12August,M r.Kishida finished his firstvisitto the Philippinesafter the issuance of award.As one of themain deliverables of his visit,Japan willgive away two patrol vessels to the Philippines.M r.Kishidaalso urged the Philippinenew government to stick to thearbitration award and not to hold bilateralnegotiationswith China.The Japanese Kyodo News Agency commented that Japan and the Philippines seemed to bewell coordinated in their positions,but the truth was that they differed in attitudes."Japanhopes thatthe Philippinescould continue to takeahard-linepolicy on the South China Seaissue,while thePhilippinenew governmentattachesgreatimportance to its relationswith China,and doesnotwantto intensify thedispute."NikkeiEnglishNewscommented thatif the Philippines isinclined to hold bilateral talkswith China,the ASEANm ightnotbeable tomarch in step anymore.It isobvious that Japan ismoreworried than any other country that the Philippinesm ight launch bilateralnegotiationsw ith China.Thisweird thinking is really hard to understand.

The USgovernmentandmediawon'tgive ita break thwarting the bilateral talksbetween the South China Sea claimant countriesand China.Before M r.Kishida's visit to the Philippines,the USState Secretary Kerry paid a brief visit to the Philippines right after the AMM and relatedmeetings this year. Secretary Kerry said thathesupported the talksbetween Chinaand the Philippineson theonehand,while healso stated thatallpartiesmustabideby theso−called award.TheUS journalistVijay Joshicommented thatall the ASEAN countries'positionsbecame clearatmeetings thisweek of Asia−Pacific and Southeast Asian nations,and the vaunted unity of the 10−member ASEAN ended in disarray because of China's musclesbulging.ProfessorWalterClemonsofHarvard University called onallASEAN countries to stand againstChina.Hesaid,"Beijing doesnotwish to faceaunited frontin SoutheastAsia.Instead,itlabors to divideand subdue.Dealing w ith these statesoneby one perm its Beijing to choose from itsquiverof soft and hard power,potential concessions and hammer blows.The ten ASEAN countries could resist and balance against an expansionist China."SomeWestern scholars turned against Cambodia,and criticized Cambodiaof splitting ASEAN by notsupporting the South China Seaaward.Bernd Schaefer w ith theWoodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars said that itwent"against the grain"to have Cambodia play such an importantrolewhen it isnota claimant in the disputeand theonly country in ASEAN yet to ratify the UNCLOS.

Theabove−mentioned commentsby theUSscholarsare fullofarroganceand backed by"the logic of agangster".Itseems thatonlywhen a country chooses to support thearbitrationaward,itcould beseen making the rightchoice;onlywhen ASEAN standsagainstChina,theUScan recognize theunity ofASEAN; onlywhen Chinaacceptsallof ASEAN's criticism,China could be seen notsplitting ASEAN.Itseems thata country hasno rightinexpressing itsopinionsif itdoesnot ratify theUNCLOS,while theUScould dowhatever itwants even that ithasnot ratified the UNCLOS.Itseems thatChina has been seen as an expansionist though it is comm itted to the good−neighborly peripheral diplomacy,while the US has becomea pacifist though ithasbeen looking for enemiesand takingm ilitary actionsallaround theworld. Theseare typicalmanifestationsof superiority com plex held by western civilizations,and the deep−rooted thinkingof theUSsuperpowerhegemony,whicheven roused somedoubts inwesternmedia.The Associated Press journalists reported from Vientiane on 26 July that"Diplomatswho attended the Laos meetings said itwas interesting to see that claimant countries appeared less enthusiastic than others in wanting to rebukeChina."The reportssaid,"Even thePhilippineswasnottoo forcefulinasking forstrong language in the ASEAN JointCommuniqué.It repeatedly pointed outthat theaward by arbitration panel was the result of its'unilateral'lawsuit,implying that ASEAN should not get involved."Malaysia's Foreign M inister didn'teven show up for themeetings.Ata latermeeting of ASEAN and Asia−Pacific nations,Bruneitook painsto praiseChina's leadership.Vietnam'sDeputy ForeignM inister LeHoaiTrung told the Associated Press thathiscountry prefersbilateraldialoguewith China.

Theanalysisof ProfessorPaulGevirtz from YaleUniversity canexplain theUSgovernment'sconflicting thinking.HepointedoutinhisarticleonWashington Postthatlaw cannotsolveallthedisputesin theSouth China Sea.The tribunalhasnoenforcementpowers,no police force,no sanctionssystem andnoability to levy fines，whichunderscore the limitsof law in resolving thesedisputesinpractice,aswellastheurgentneed tomoveaheadwithnegotiations,supportedby prudentpowerpolitics.Another fundamentallimitisthatthe tribunallacks legal power to resolve underlying and potentially explosive conflicts regarding sovereignty over land featuresand disputesovermaritimeboundaries.Andofcourseno court'sdecision can fullyaddressthecoregeopoliticalissues atstake:China'senormousnew capacities,widespreaduncertaintyaboutChina'sregionalintentions,andwhether Chinaand theUScan find termsof coexistence in the Asia-Pacific.Professor Gevirtz alsomade policy recommendations to the USgovernmentinhisarticle.TheUnited Statesand other countries should strongly supportthetribunal'sjudgmentasabindingdecision inwordsand deeds.ButtheObamaadministrationalsomust guard againstescalation.The possibility exists thata rebuked Chinaw ill launch new provocations,and a legally empowered Philippinesmightask the US to use itsmilitary to enforcewhat the tribunal cannotenforce, both ofwhichwould createmajor risks for theUS.Instead,the USshould encourage its Filipinoallies,with their legalvictory inhand,topursuedirectnegotiationswithChinaasthebestnextstep in looking forreal-world, peacefulsolutions.ChinashouldnotinsistthatthePhilippinesrenouncethearbitrationaward,and thePhilippines shouldnotinsistthatChinaacceptthe legalrightsawardedby the tribunal.Negotiationsshouldbeginwitha focus on lowering tensions,looking for trade−offsand pursuing common developmentprojects.Rules−based Codeof Conductbetween theASEAN nationsand Chinashould alsobea top priority.ProfessorGevirtz'sanalysiswillbe furthertestified by the futuredecisionmakingby theUSgovernment.

The complexity in the currentstrategic situation of EastAsia isunprecedented.The US is still theonly superpower,enjoying significantpolitical,military andeconomic influencein EastAsia.Chinahasbecome thesecond largesteconomy in theworld,thebiggest trading partner and important investmentsource to all ASEAN countries.Japanand Australiaareworriedaboutthereality thatChinaisrising tobethemostimportant politicaland econom icpower in EastAsia.Especially,Japan isgettingmoreandmoreanxiousaboutitsown declining influence.Some ASEAN countriesarealso doubtfulaboutChina's rise,and wish to counton the USbalancingChina'sinfluence.Atthesame time,thesecountriesalso try toenhance theirpracticalcooperation with China because they recognize China's leading role in the politicaland economic terms in this region. ASEAN countriesallknow that thearbitration hasnotchanged the reality,and the relevantdisputesstillhave to be resolved peacefully through diplomatic negotiations.The USofficialsarealso clear that thearbitration awardwon'thaveany actualeffect,and rather itwilldogreatharm to theUS−China relationsif theUS insists going too far.ButtheUSstillwishestostirmoretrouble todisruptthestability inChina'sneighborhood through using thearbitration caseand rousinganger in ASEAN countriesagainstChina.That'swhywesee from time to time the contradictionsbetween thewordsand actionsof theUSofficials.

When the arbitration award came out,the Chinese government did notmake strong reactions as speculated andhypedby somewesternmedia like"declaringanairdefenseidentificationzone(ADIZ)over the South China Sea,seizing controlofother islandsand reefs in Nansha Zhudao and withdrawing from theUNCLOS."The Straits Timescommented thatitwasbecause the Chinesegovernment insisted thatth e rulingwas justa"uselesspieceof paper"and China'srestraintalso reflected itsconfidence.Thiscomment mademe recallan interesting sceneafter the EASForeign M inisters'Meeting on 26 July.At theMeeting, Foreign M inisterWang Yiseverely criticized the Tripartite JointStatementby theUS,Japan and Australia on the South China Seaarbitration.When theMeetingwasadjourned,Secretary Kerry cameup toM inister Wang and explained that the Joint Statementonlywent to hisoffice desk at the lastm inuteand he hastilyapproved itw ithoutcarefulscrutinizing.Kerry said thathewas sorry about them isunderstanding that the documenthad caused.TheAustralian ForeignMinisterwas justsittingnexttoM inisterWangwhen Secretary Kerry talked to him.Itwassaid that the ideaof releasing such a JointStatementcame from Japan.

The South China Seaarbitration case isa litmus test to provewhether the countriesoutside the region are trulymeanttomaintain regionalpeaceordisturb thesituation in the South China Sea.Formostregional countries,their priority is how to preserve regional peace,stability and development.Some external forceswereexcited about theso−called arbitration award,which hasdisturbed thenormal regionalorder and underm ined theoverall interestsof regional countries,which started to invoke concern,resentment and even opposition from more andmore regional countries.Looking around theworld,there are still many places plagued with turmoil.EastAsia is the common home for all the regional countries,and it hasenjoyed ahard−won long period of stability and development.If this region falls into chaos,outside countries could just leavewhile the regional countriesw illhavenowhere to go and have to addressall the problems leftbehind.JustaswhatM inisterWang Yihassaid,relevantparties should stop this pointless politicalmanipulation and speculation,and cool down such feverish actionsas soon as possible so as to restore tranquility in the South China Seaand stability in the region.

·作者信息：徐步，中国驻东盟使团团长、特命全权大使。

·责任编辑：屠苏

Observationson the South China Sea Issue through ASEAN Foreign M inisters'M eeting and Related M eetings

XU Bu

Such externalpowersas theUSand Japan racked theirm inds in hyping thearbitration caseon the South China Sea issue initiated by the Philippines,recklessly m isinterpreted the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS),incited on purpose the arbitration court to abuse its authority and evenmanipulated the composition of arbitration tribunalmembersoutof politicalmotives. The49th ASEAN ForeignM inisters'Meeting(AMM)and relatedmeetingswereheldagainstabackdrop featuring EastAsiahaunted by tension,fluid situation in the South China Seaand fresh publication of the award ofarbitration case.Some forcesoutside the regionattempted tomakeChina the targetofaccusations. More andmore countries in our region aregettingworried that the regionalsituationwould be kidnapped by the South China Sea issue and they are also expressing the resentment against these external powers blindly cooking up the South China Sea issue.

AMM and related meetings;the arbitration case on the South China Sea issue; China−ASEAN relations;Vientiane−Laos PDR