Covid-19 Unlocks the Potential of Smart Cities in China 新冠解锁中国智慧城市潜力

爱丽丝·庞

We are in the middle of another technology revolution. The digital economy will contribute 48% of GDP in China in 2035， up from 23% in 2020， according to the Boston Consulting Group1. The sector “Information Transmission， Software and Information Technology Services” grew 14.8% in 2019. We estimate that this growth rate could accelerate to 22% per year on average between 2020 and 2025 （even taking technology friction with the US into account） due to the implementation of 5G， consumer AI， the industrial Internet of Things， smart cities， and the Internet of Vehicles2.

The current market for “smart city” technology in China is estimated at CNY181 billion by the IDC3 in 2020， which is equivalent to just 0.18% of GDP but will increase to 0.3% of GDP in 2025. The market value does not net out the potential saving of lives and prevention of economic loss from outcomes such as flood or disease prevention/reduction， which could be huge.

Covid-19 showcases the advantages of smart cities

Smart cities are no longer just a concept. Indeed， in a surprising silver lining4 to the Covid-19 pandemic， smart city apps have shown they can help China contain the spread of the virus， helping to turn the economy from contraction5 in 1Q20 to growth in 2Q20. We saw some smart city apps in Wuhan during the Covid-19 pandemic， and later， in other parts of China.

In China， the smart system for Covid-19 is called the Health Code， with red， yellow， or green symbols to identify whether a person is potentially a high-risk candidate for Covid-19 infection or not.

The colour code system began as one of the functions of a very popular payment app originally for the apps staff in China， then later developed as a national standard function in some popular apps. The apps new Covid-19 function indicates whether a person can enter public places， e.g. the wet markets， or public transportation， based on calculations on whether that person has had contact with or gathered around people who are identified as confirmed Covid-19 cases. The calculations use input from sensors and surveillance cameras installed in the street and also on smart street lights. The Health Code has avoided the need to over-tighten social distancing measures that could result in a huge economic loss while at the same time identifying possible infection cases， and its managed to reduce infection rates in cities where it has been used.

Other examples include applications for better traffic management when there is an accident， sewage leak alarms and apps for flood control and crime reduction.

Smart street lights are at the heart of Chinas smart cities

The number of smart street lights required in China is estimated at 13 million assuming a 30% penetration rate of all street lights in 2025. This would take the market for smart street lights from an estimated CNY11.8 billion in 2019 to CNY59 billion by 2025. Most of the investment will be via public-private partnerships with local governments. We believe that the speed of building smart cities in Beijing， Shanghai， Guangzhou， Shenzhen， Hangzhou will be faster than the national average as they have already had more local government investment， according to the Annual Report on the Development of the Internet of Cities in China6.

When the network of smart street lights increases further， it will also likely expand to cover more functions. In addition to basic lighting， it could include surveillance cameras， auto-police calling when the data shows abnormalities， traffic management， weather information collection and display， sewage system fault detection， Wi-Fi hotspots converting telecommunication signals from 4G/5G， e-vehicle chargers， signal senders and as a facilitator7 for driverless cars.

5G+AI parking

Parking in a busy traffic city has been a big problem for city management. For example， Shenzhen has combined 5G and AI to enhance the efficiency of car park usage. There are more than 3.5 million motor vehicles but there are only 1.69 million parking spaces in car parks. To solve this problem， the local government is partnering with corporates to enhance the efficiency of the usage of existing parking spaces in hospitals， tourism spots， transportation hubs， airports， commercial districts， and a large stadium. For example， drivers can seamlessly book a parking space at a hospital at the same time as scheduling a doctors appointment. Drivers do not need to worry about whether there is enough parking space and arrive early to wait for a space or to occupy the parking space for longer than needed. Drivers also know if all of the parking spaces are occupied at the time of the doctors appointment and can choose other transportation.

Auto-valet parking8 is also increasing in popularity. This is not only to help drivers save time in the car park but also to increase the number of car parks in limited floor space. Robots and sensors installed in the car parks work together to find a space and park the car for drivers. This needs a precise indoor location system using combined technology of 5G and AI. For example， there is a 20-storey auto-valet car park building， which has 387 parking lots in a high-rise building which takes up only 638 square metres in Chongqing city. The land price for this high rise parking facility costs CNY3.4 million instead of CNY61.5 million for the same number of parking lots in an ordinary car park. The saved land costs should bring down the cost of parking and， at the same time， provide a more convenient parking service.

Costs of smart cities

With more technology applications， there is bound to be disruption to existing activities and the labour they require. If smart cities help driverless cars to take off， the thousands of drivers of taxis or delivery drivers that find low skilled employment in Chinas cities could be displaced and struggle to find alternative employment. New jobs will certainly arise from the implementation of smart city technology， but will likely require different skills and knowledge to those being displaced. The government will need to assist those whose employment is disrupted to find alternatives.

Our ‘guesstimate9 is that by 2030， Beijing， Shanghai， Guangdong， Shenzhen and Hangzhou could be experienced practitioners of smart city technology. And by 2035， most locations in China could enjoy some smart city functions. This means that the Chinese economy could achieve urbanisation at a faster speed.                                                   ■

我们处于又一场技术革命之中。根据波士顿咨询集团的数据，到2035年，数字经济在中国GDP中的占比将从2020年的23%上升至48%。2019年，“信息傳输、软件和信息技术服务”领域增长了14.8%。由于对5G、消费类人工智能产品、工业物联网、智慧城市和车联网等技术的应用，（即便将与美国的技术摩擦考虑在内，）预计该领域的年均增长率仍将在2020年至2025年期间加速升至22%。

2020年，国际数据公司估计，目前中国“智慧城市”技术市场规模为1810亿元，仅相当于GDP的0.18%;但到了2025年，将上升至GDP的0.3%。洪灾和疾病等可能造成生命和经济的巨大损失，建设智慧城市可预防/减少洪灾和疾病等的发生，从而避免损失——上述预估市场规模没有涵盖这方面因素。

新冠疫情凸显智慧城市优势

智慧城市不再只是一个概念。实际上，智慧城市应用程序已表明它们可以帮助中国遏制新冠病毒传播，促使经济从2020年一季度的收缩转为二季度的增长，这是疫情的一个意外收获。在新冠疫情期间，我们在武汉看到了一些智慧城市应用程序;随后，它们也出现在了中国其他地区。

在中国，防疫智慧系统被称为健康码，有红色、黄色或绿色标识，用于识别一个人是否具有感染新冠的高风险性。

健康码最初是一款极为流行的支付应用程序上的一项功能，仅为该程序的中国员工使用，后来发展成为某些流行应用程序的国家标准功能。该应用程序的新款防疫功能可以计算一个人是否与新冠确诊病例接触或聚集过，由此显示其是否可以进入公共空间，比如进入生鲜市场或乘坐公共交通工具。计算的输入源来自街道和智能路灯上安装的传感器和监控摄像头。健康码不仅可以识别疑似感染病例，还避免了可能造成巨大经济损失的过度社交距离措施;在使用健康码的城市，感染率因此而降低。

其他例子包括发生交通事故时的交通优化管理应用程序、污水泄漏警报应用程序、防汛及防犯罪应用程序。

智能路灯是中国智慧城市的核心

到2025年，假设智能路灯的普及率达到30%，那么中国大约需要1300万盏智能路灯。这将使得智能路灯市场的规模从2019年估算的118亿元增长为2025年的590亿元。大多数投资将通过与地方政府的公私合作进行。《中国城市互联网发展报告（2020）》显示，北京、上海、广州、深圳和杭州已经获得了更多的地方政府投资，因此我们认为这些城市的智慧城市建设速度将快于全国平均水平。

智能路灯网络进一步扩展后，可能会包含更多功能。除基本照明外，还可能包含监控摄像头、数据异常自动报警、交通管理、天气信息采集与显示、污水系统故障检测、转换4G / 5G电信信号的Wi-Fi热点、电动汽车充电器、信号发射器、无人驾驶汽车辅助工具等功能。

5G +人工智能停车

在交通繁忙的城市，停车一直是城市管理的一大难题。例如，深圳已将5G与人工智能相结合，以提高停车场的使用效率。深圳有超过350万辆汽车，但只有169万个停车位。为了解决这个问题，地方政府与企业合作，提高医院、旅游景点、交通枢纽、机场、商业区和一座大型体育场现有停车位的使用效率。例如，驾驶员可以在预约医生的同时无缝预订医院的停车位，无须担心是否有足够的停车位，也无须提前到达等车位或占用停车位超过必要时长。驾驶员还可以知道就诊时段的停车位是否已经被全部占用，以便选乘其他交通工具。

自动代客泊车也越来越普及。它不仅可以帮助驾驶员节省停车时间，还可以在有限的占地面积内增加停车场的数量。停车场中安装的机器人和传感器协同工作寻找空车位，并代替驾驶员泊车。这需要结合使用5G与人工智能技术，建立一个精确的室内定位系统。例如，在重庆市有一栋20层高自动代客泊车大楼，这座高层建筑有387个停车位，占地面积仅638平方米。这栋高层停车楼的土地价格为340万元人民币，而一片车位数量相同的普通停车场的土地价格为6150万元人民币。节省的土地成本可以降低停车费用，同时提供更便捷的停车服务。

智慧城市的成本

技术的更多应用势必会打破现有产业格局及劳动力结构。如果智慧城市能够帮助无人驾驶汽车实现快速发展，那么成千上万原本在中国城市里从事低技能工作的出租车司机或货车司机可能下岗，难以找到下一份工作。智慧城市技术的应用的确会创造新的工作机会，但这些下岗人员并不具备这些职位所需的技能和知识。政府需要帮这些失业者实现再就业。

我们“粗略估算”，到2030年，北京、上海、广东、深圳和杭州将成为经验丰富的智慧城市技术实践者。到2035年，中国大部分地区都会具备一些智慧城市功用。这意味着中国经济可以更快地实现城市化。                  □

（译者为“《英语世界》杯”翻译大赛获奖者;单位：四川工商职业技术学院）

1一家知名的美国企业管理咨询公司，公司创始人布鲁斯·亨德森（Bruce Henderson）在1968年提出了管理学界极为著名的“波士顿矩阵”。  2车联网是以行駛中的车辆为信息感知对象，借助新一代信息通信技术，实现车与云平台、车与车、车与路、车与人、车内互联等全方位网络连接。  3国际数据公司（英文全称International Data Corporation），全球著名的信息技术、电信行业和消费科技市场咨询服务提供商。

4 silver lining（失望或不幸中的）一点希望。  5 contraction收缩;消减。

6该报告由清华大学技术创新研究中心、城云科技（中国）有限公司和首都国投控股有限公司合作编写而成，从多角度展现数字城市，特别是城市互联网在我国的发展状况。  7 facilitator推动者。

8自动代客泊车，英文简称AVP，指使用应用程序让车辆可以在没有司机的情况下泊车和取回。该技术还涵盖自动洗车、电动汽车自动充电等功能，是目前戴姆勒、福特、奔驰等众多车商正在角逐的新兴技术。

9 guesstimate大概估计。