倒闭！破产！失业！何去何从？

The world continues to be in financial crisis, with banks, international institutions, and governments struggling to cope with the repercussions of the global credit crunch, the collapse of major financial firms, and the popping of the housing bubble. Sparked by dubious shenanigans around the American housing market, combined with an influx of money from boom economies between 2000 to 2006 which drove investors into increasingly risky markets, the global meltdown is having effects far beyond any one country. A complete collapse of the financial system seems to have been averted, but economists are still calling this "the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s", which left tens of millions unemployed worldwide, drove previously rich areas to famine, and aided the rise of fascism in Europe. The immediate impact of the crash has already been seen in the economic statistics; the US economy shrank by 4% in the last quarter, and the whole of Europe has officially gone into recession. The effects are being seen in the "real economy", not just in the financial markets. Unemployment has risen worldwide, and consumer spending has fallen sharply.

全球金融危机仍在持续，银行、国际机构和政府都在苦苦挣扎应对全球信贷紧缩、大型金融机构倒闭和房地产市场泡沫破裂带来的后果。美国房地产市场不正当的交易方式是全球经济崩溃的导火线，加上从2000年到2006年繁荣经济体资金的流入将投资者驱向风险越来越大的市场，经济崩溃对任何一个国家都造成影响。金融体系的彻底崩溃似乎已经避免，但经济学家们依然称之为“自上世纪30年代美国经济大萧条以来最严重的一场危机”。经济大萧条导致全球数千万人失业，迫使以前富裕的地区面临饥饿的威胁，同时使欧洲法西斯主义得以兴起。通过经济统计数据可以看到经济崩溃瞬间产生的巨大影响，美国经济在今年最后一季度缩水了4%，整个欧洲正式进入了衰退时期。经济危机不仅冲击金融市场，对实体经济的影响也在凸显。全球失业率上升，消费者支出已经迅速下滑。

Developed economies have generally responded to the crisis with the announcement of major stimulus packages. Interest rates have been cut dramatically, making it less expensive to borrow and less profitable to save. Recessions often become worse because people's fears and uncertainities are reflected in their spending, causing a massive loss of consumer confidence.Behaviour that might be rational and sensible for individuals, such as not buying things they can't afford, staying out of debt, and living within their means, is often bad for the economy as a whole.Several governments have therefore tried to increase people's spending with tax cuts, particularly on those taxes which apply at the point of sale. In the United Kingdom, VAT, a 17.5% charge on many items, has just been lowered to 15% in an attempt to boost spending. Massive public spending packages, totalling trillions of dollars worldwide, have also been announced, with governments from Germany to Korea hoping that this will provide much needed jobs - although it will also badly boost public debt.

发达国家纷纷出台重大经济刺激方案来应对危机。利率急剧下降，使借款不再昂贵，存款利润减少。由于人们在消费中体现出的恐惧与不确定性导致消费者信心大幅下减，经济衰退雪上加霜。对个人来说一些行为是理性明智的，比如不购买支付不起的商品，不赊欠债款，量入为出，对整个经济来说通常会造成不利影响。因此一些政府尝试以减税的方式来刺激人们的消费，尤其是在销售端进行减税。在英国，许多物品原来的增值税税率是17.5%，现在为了刺激消费下降到15%。全球总额上万亿美元的全面消费刺激方案也已经公布，从德国政府到韩国政府各国都希望这些方案会带来大量的就业机会，虽然这些方案也会很大程度地增加国债。

After stock markets dived, emergency measures were taken to close them in developing markets, such as Russia and Indonesia. Elsewhere, short-selling (betting that stocks will fall) has been banned. Many banks have been nationalised by various governments, such as Northern Rock in the UK, Fortis in Belgium, and all three of the major Icelandic banks. Others are being propped up with government money. America's bailout package has been particularly controversial, providing hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up companies in return for the government receiving a share of any future projects. The value of the shares purchased under the bailout program has already dropped by one third. America is also facing the grim prospect of whether to attempt to bail out her failing car industries - which may be a case of simply shoving dollars down a money pit, as some believe the "Big Three" of Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors are simply too far gone to save. If the government lets them fail, however, the damage to the economy will be enormous, with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost and millions affected indirectly.

股市跳水后，发展中国家纷纷采取紧急措施关闭股市，例如俄罗斯和印度。有些地方禁止售空（确信股票将会下跌）。许多银行被政府收购接管，如英国北岩银行，比利时富通银行，还有冰岛三大银行。其它银行则依靠政府的资金维持。美国救市方案一直极具争议性，为扶持一些公司政府提供数千亿美元的救援资金，作为回报，政府将分享今后一切项目的收益。在救市计划之下购买的股票价值已经缩减了三分之一。美国还面临着是否要拯救正处下滑趋势的汽车产业的严峻前景，这样做可能就等于将钱丢进坑里白白浪费了，有些人认为克莱斯勒、福特和通用汽车公司这“三大巨头”已经回天乏术。但如果政府让它们破产，将会给经济造成巨大损失，数十万人将失业，数百万人将间接受到影响。

Many currencies have been adversely affected by the crisis. The American dollar, paradoxically, has strengthened despite the weakness of the American economy, as investors fled to the perceived "safe haven" of treasury bills and other government savings. It is predicted to drop again in the next three to six months, after the damage done by recession becomes clearer. Many other currencies, such as the pound, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and the Korean won, fell badly, losing 20% to 30% of their value. The Korean economy, which is closely tied in to the USA thanks to a large Korean-American population and the popularity of American universities among Korean students, was particularly hurt by the drop in the won's value. China, in contrast, is rumoured to be considering devaluing the yuan in order to boost her exports, a move which would cause controversy among many Americans who believe that the yuan is already undervalued.

许多货币已经受到了危机的不良影响。相反，尽管美国经济疲软，美元却走强，投资者都逃往他们认定的“避风港”——国库券和其它政府储蓄。在经济衰退造成的损失日益明显后，美元在未来3到6个月内预计继续下跌。许多其它货币，如英镑、澳元和加元以及韩元都跌得厉害，币值下跌了20%至30%。由于韩裔美国人口众多和韩国学生对美国大学的青睐，韩国经济与美国紧密相连，韩元的贬值重创韩国经济。相反，据传中国正考虑将人民币贬值以刺激出口，这个举措将会受到很多美国人的非议，他们认为人民币的定值已经过低了。

Oil-producing states have been particularly badly hit by the sudden drop in the price of a barrel, which fell from a peak of over $140 to five-year-lows of under $50 within a couple of months.With many countries, such as Russia and Venezuala, having already announced ambitious spending plans, the sudden fall in prices has badly disrupted their finances. Dubai, which had been undergoing an oil-and-financial fuelled boom, is facing an economic crisis, as backers default on ambitious building schemes and expat jobs disappear. OPEC, the chief association of oil-producing states, has announced a scaleback in production in order to artificially raise prices.

原油价格迅速下滑，从最高点每桶超过140美元在几个月内跌至5年以来的低点每桶不足50美元，重创石油输出国。许多国家，如俄罗斯和委内瑞拉都已经公布了巨大的开支计划，油价的突然下跌严重影响了两国的财政。当投资者未实现大型的施工计划，外来工人就业岗位消失了，处于由石油和金融业推动的发展热潮中的迪拜正陷入经济危机当中。石油输出国组织欧佩克已经做出削减石油产量以实现人为提高石油价格的决定。

Many have pinned their hopes on the continued growth of India and China. With export orders dropping, however, Chinese manufacturers have been badly hit, particularly in the southern metropolises of Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Hundreds of factories there have already closed, leaving workers and bankers to fight over the remaining product. Six million migrant workers are returning to their hometowns every day, causing chaotic scenes at rail and bus stations. With a growing population of graduates and an existing job shortage, China needs to maintain at least an 8 or 9% growth rate just to maintain existing employment levels. Economists fear growth may fall as low as 5 or 6%, stunning rates for other countries, but dangerously low in overheated and overpopulated China, and definitely not enough to provide jobs for the nation's six million new university graduates. The government has already announced investment packages and aid for threatened industries. India, which has been more focused on domestic markets than foreign exports, is experiencing less impact, although economic growth is expected to fall in the next year. The stock market in both countries has also fallen dramatically, damaging the emergent middle classes.

很多人寄望于经济持续增长的印度和中国。然而由于出口订单减少，中国制造商遭到了剧烈的冲击，尤其是在广州和深圳等一些南方大都市。这些地区有上百家工厂已经关闭，工人和银行争夺存留的产品。6百万流动工人每天陆续返乡，使火车站和汽车站呈现嘈杂的景象。中国大学毕业生人数不断增加，现有工作岗位短缺，为了保持现有的就业水平，中国应至少保持8%至9%的增长率。经济学家担心增长率会下降到5%至6%，虽然这对其它国家来说是个非常不错的数字，但对于发展迅速、人口过多的中国来说这个数字太低太危险，根本不能满足本国6百万刚刚毕业的大学生的工作需求。政府已经出台了一揽子投资计划和救助受到威胁的产业的方案。更注重本国市场而非对外出口的印度受到的影响较小，然而经济增长速度预计在明年将会减缓。两国的股市都剧烈下跌，伤害了两国新兴的中产阶级。

With the aftershocks from the crisis still going on, this looks to be a dire year for everyone.Social disorder and rioting are expected to increase worldwide. In Greece, the recent murder of a teenager by police officers has already sparked days of massive riots, fueled by widespread unemployment and economic fears. Last year also saw a food crisis, with prices driven up by poor harvests and the switching of fields to the production of biofuels, which led to riots in Egypt, Syria, India, and Indonesia. Despite incomes falling, food prices remain high.

经济危机的影响持续蔓延，对每个人来说这是可怕的一年。全球社会动乱和骚乱将会加剧。在希腊，警察射杀一名少年这一事件引发了数日的暴乱，暴乱由于大量的失业与经济恐慌点燃。去年由于粮食歉收食物价格上涨，土地改种生物燃料，引发了粮食危机，从而导致埃及、叙利亚、印度和印尼的暴乱。尽管收入在下降，粮食价格依然居高不下。

There are hopes that some economies may struggle out of recession by the end of 2009, but 2010 seems a more likely date for the beginning of recovery. It is the end of an ideological era, too, as unquestioned claims of the supremacy of unfettered markets and easy global trade have been blown away by the hard reality of failure. An entire swathe of banking has disappeared - in America, Wall Street, once the icon of bankers worldwide, is all but gone. There is, as yet, no international consensus on how a revived financial system would work, but policies, such as government-backed financial markets, that would have seemed wildly radical last year are now being given serious thought. Who knows what the future will bring?

一些国家有望能够在2009年底走出经济衰退的阴霾，但可能要到2010年经济才更有可能会开始复苏。这同时又是一个意识形态结束的时代，因为对不受约束的市场的优越性与全球贸易便利毋庸置疑的宣称已经被失败这一残酷的事实拂去。许多银行消失了，曾经被全世界银行家崇拜的美国华尔街已经逝去。如今就怎样使金融体系复苏这一问题国际社会还没有达成共识，但一些政策，如政府控制的金融市场，在去年看来也许疯狂偏激，但现在正被谨慎考虑。谁知道未来会给我们带来什么呢？