Weather Determines Economic Outcomes天气决定经济形势

Soon it will be even more important.

很快，天气将变得更加重要。

“Now the rains had really come，” writes Chinua Achebe， in Things Fall Apart， a novel set in 19th-century Nigeria， “so heavy and persistent that even the village rainmaker no longer claimed to be able to intervene. He could not stop the rain now， just as he would not attempt to start it in the heart of the dry season， without serious danger to his own health.” In agrarian economies of the sort depicted in Achebe’s novel， the economic cycle and weather move in tandem. When the rains arrive at the right time， the harvest is bountiful and prosperity follows. In contrast， drought brings the risk of starvation and death. The rainmaker—much like the modern-day central banker—may attempt to smooth out the business cycle， literally dampening things down when they get too hot. Ultimately， though， it is the power of nature that decides the outcome.

非洲作家钦努阿·阿契贝在其以19世纪尼日利亚为背景创作的小说《瓦解》中写道：“现在雨真的来了，雨势之大、之持久，连村里的雨师都不再声称能干预。现在他不能止雨，就像他不愿在旱季高峰期造雨一样，否则自己的身体就会受到严重伤害。”在阿契贝小说中描绘的那种农业经济中，经济周期和天气相互关联。雨水适时到来，便五谷丰登，繁荣随之而来。相比之下，干旱会带来饥荒和死亡的风险。雨师——就像是现代的央行行长——可能会试图平稳经济周期，也就是，当经济形势过热时给它降温。然而，最终决定结果的是自然的力量。

Europe’s energy crisis has brought the return of weather-based economics. The crisis is a reminder that， for all their technological sophistication， even rich-world economies must rely on the munificence of nature. European economists， financiers and policymakers are watching forecasts closely： a balmy winter will bring relief， requiring less gas to be burned in order to keep houses warm. If temperatures are not too punishing， energy prices will fall and growth be given a boost. A frosty winter， on the other hand， will bring misery： pushing millions into poverty， increasing inflationary pressures and keeping industries shuttered.

欧洲的能源危机让人们再度开始研究基于天气的经济状况。这一危机提醒人们，发达国家尽管拥有先进的技术，但也必须依赖自然的慷慨。目前，欧洲的经济学家、金融家和政策制定者们正在密切关注天气预报：温暖的冬天将缓解能源危机，为保持房屋温暖而需要燃烧的天然气会减少。如果气温不那么低，能源价格将下降，经济增长也将得到推动。与之相反，严寒的冬天将会带来苦难：无数人陷入贫困，通货膨胀压力增加，许多产业也将倒闭。

Fossil fuels originally promised to free economies from the vagaries of the seasons. Instead of relying on ambient solar power—captured in grain， preserved in livestock or photosynthesised into biomass and then consumed as firewood—humanity could burn coal， releasing the prehistoric solar power contained within. The use of fossil fuels allowed energy to be stored， transported and released exactly when required. They placed the power of the sun at the beck and call of mankind， rather than the other way around.

人们一开始认为，化石燃料肯定会将经济从变化不定的季节中解放出来。人类可以燃烧煤炭，释放其中所蕴含的史前太阳能，而非依赖于环境中的太阳能——后者有的被谷物获取，有的保存在牲畜体内，还有的被光合作用转化成生物质，然后作为木柴燃烧消耗。使用化石燃料可使能源完全按需储存、运输和释放。它们将太阳的能量置于人类的管控之下，而不是太阳管控人类。

Ann Kussmaul， an economic historian， tracked the spread of the Industrial Revolution through England by assessing when regions moved beyond seasonal economics. Parish marriage certificates measured the point at which fossil fuels freed workers from the rhythms of nature and instead tied them to the factory whistle. Before industrialisation， marriages in low-lying areas would often be in winter after the harvest was taken; in hilly areas， they would be during summer， once the lambing season had come to an end. After industrialisation， such regional and seasonal marriage patterns disappeared， providing a clue as to which parts of England first adopted fossil-fuel-based production techniques.

经济历史学家安·库斯莫尔通过评估各地区经济何时摆脱季节性因素追踪了工业革命在英格兰的传播情况。教区的结婚证记录了化石燃料使工人摆脱自然节奏，转而与工厂哨声联系在一起的时间。工业化前，在低洼地区，人们通常在作物收割后的冬季结婚；而在丘陵地区，人们会在产羔季节结束后的夏季结婚。工业化后，这种地区性和季节性的结婚模式消失了，这为了解英格兰哪些地区最早采用基于化石燃料的生产技术提供了线索。

Hundreds of years later， seasonality is returning to Britain and other parts of Europe， as the continent weans itself from Russian gas. Part of the reason for this return is physical. Natural gas is much harder to transport and store than coal or liquid oil. In the past， Europe benefited from abundant piped gas provided by Russia， as well as the option of top-ups of liquefied natural gas shipped from abroad. Now supplies are tight and Europeans must mostly rely on the shipped stuff. The continent’s storage facilities are already more than 90% full， and filling the last bits of available space is expensive， since the contents must be kept under high pressure. Constrained supply means that changes in demand determine the price of energy—and the weather is the most uncertain determinant of demand.

数百年后，随着欧洲逐渐摆脱对俄罗斯天然气的依赖，季节性因素再次影响英国和欧洲其他地区。这种回归的部分原因是物理上的。天然气比煤炭或液体石油更难运输和储存。过去，欧洲受益于俄罗斯提供的丰富的管道天然气，以及从国外运来作为补充选项的液化天然气。现在能源供应紧张，欧洲人必须大多依赖从国外运来的液化天然气。欧洲大陆的储气设施目前储量已经超过90%，填满最后一点可用空间成本高昂，因为液化天然气必须在高压条件下保存。供应受限意味着需求变化决定能源价格，而天气是最不确定的需求决定因素。

Autumn spared Europe the worst： the continent enjoyed the hottest October on record. As a result， the price for a unit of gas on the Dutch title transfer facility， which provides the benchmark for the continent， fell to around €100 per megawatt hour， half the rate in September. Historically there has been a relatively linear relationship between gas demand and the temperature： the colder it gets， the more gas is needed. This year things are a little more complicated. Home-heating systems have been left dormant for longer than usual. Blanket sales are on the rise.

秋天，欧洲幸免于最糟糕的情况：该大陆经历了有记录以来最热的10月。因此，在荷兰天然气交易中心（为欧洲天然气交易确定基准价格），天然气价格下跌至每兆瓦时约100欧元，是9月价格的一半。历史上，天然气需求与温度之间存在着一种相对的线性关系：天气越冷，天然气需求量就越大。2022年的情况有些复杂。家庭供暖系统处于休眠状态的时间比往年更长。毯子的销量一直在增加。

The gas crisis is not the only reason for a greater focus on the weather. Renewables now supply much more energy to Europe than even a few years ago， leading to problems if the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine. Indeed， hydropower has also been an issue for Europe， after a hot summer dried out the reservoirs and rivers on which dams depend. Improving and investing in ways to store electricity， whether batteries， hydrogen or other techniques， could in future smooth out such variability. The continent nonetheless faces years， or even decades， of nervously watching the skies as it adjusts.

天然气危机并非人们更加关注天气的唯一原因。可再生能源现在为欧洲供应的能源比几年前多得多，但如果不刮风或没有阳光，就会出现问题。事实上，水力发电也是欧洲面临的一个问题，因为炎热的夏天使大坝所依赖的水库与河流干涸。改善和投资存储电力的方式，无论是电池、氢气还是其他技术，将来都可以解决这种因变数而产生的问题。然而，在调整的同时，欧洲大陆仍然面临数年甚至数十年紧张观察天空的局面。

Yet in the absence of a transition to green forms of energy the weather would begin to play an even bigger role in economics. A warmer planet is already leading to more frequent and extreme events， such as Europe’s summer heatwaves or the devastating floods endured by Pakistan. These events amount to so-called real shocks to an economy： external changes that lower productive capacity， and so cause both higher inflation and unemployment.

但是，在没有向绿色能源过渡的情况下，天气将开始在经济中扮演更加重要的角色。地球变暖已经在导致更频繁和极端的事件发生，例如欧洲的夏季热浪或巴基斯坦遭受的毁灭性洪灾。这些事件对经济造成了所谓的实质性冲击，即外部变化降低了生产能力，因此导致通货膨胀率和失业率双双上升。

This dual threat is harder for central bankers to deal with than downturns that arise from changes in business confidence or a financial crisis. Tighten policy too much in response and it will exacerbate the downturn; too little and inflation may get out of hand. According to analysis by the IMF of Pacific and Caribbean islands， natural-disaster-prone countries grow by around one percentage point less a year and have considerably higher debt stocks than those less at risk. Climate change will only exacerbate these differences. Thus a return to weather-dependent economics will leave some central bankers looking even more like rainmakers： attempting to perform the old rituals or demanding more sacrifices， without much capacity to affect the economic weather.

对于央行官员来说，这种双重威胁比由商业信心变化或金融危机引起的经济衰退更难处理。过于紧缩的政策将加剧经济衰退，过于宽松的政策则可能导致通货膨胀失控。根据国际货币基金组织对太平洋和加勒比海岛国的分析，相比风险较小的国家，自然灾害频发的国家年增长率约低一个百分点，且债务存量高得多。气候变化只会加剧这些差异。因此，重新研究基于天气的经济状况将使一些央行官员看起来更像雨师：试图举行古老的仪式或要求更多的牺牲，但没有多少能力影响受天气左右的经济形势。

（译者为“《英语世界》杯”翻译大赛获奖者）