Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions为何聪明人做出糟糕的决策

Will Rogers1 once famously said， “Common sense ain’t common.” Nobel Laureate psychologist2 Dr. Daniel Kahneman has proven that humans are not the rational beings we believe ourselves to be. But why？

威尔·罗杰斯有句名言：“常识并不常见。”诺贝尔奖获得者、心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼博士已经证实，人类并非我们自认为的那么理智。这是为何呢？

We live in a remarkably stressful age where we are overwhelmed with information. The news cycle was once only several hours， now it’s a full day. We are bombarded with “news，” which in many instances is neither interesting nor relevant， only different. And let us not forget the incessant3 bombardment4 with all types of “raw data，” much of which is incomplete. Human consciousness， and the brain that supports it， simply cannot withstand such overwhelming stimulation. It might come as a surprise to you， but the primary function of most of your brain’s physiology is to dampen5 and regulate arousal. Stress-related physical disorders are best understood as disorders of arousal. Overarousal cannot only cripple6 our bodies， but it can also cripple our minds. Findings from neuroscience have taught us that overarousal can play an important role in contributing to many of the poor decisions we make. If we can better understand how this happens， perhaps we can better prevent many actions we would later come to regret.

我们生活在一个异常紧张的时代，泛滥的信息让我们应接不暇。过去，新闻每隔几小时更新一次，如今则是全天不间断更新。我们被“新闻”轰炸，很多时候这些所谓的“新闻”既无趣也无实际意义，仅仅是内容不同罢了。别忘了，我们还不断遭受各类“原始数据”的侵袭，这些数据大部分是不完整的。人类的意识和维系它的大脑根本无法承受如此强烈的刺激。听起来你可能觉得奇怪，但大脑最主要的生理功能是抑制和调节兴奋。与压力相关的身体失调被普遍认为是兴奋失调。过度兴奋不仅会损害身体，还会侵蚀心智。神经科学的研究成果表明，在我们做出的很多糟糕决策中，过度兴奋都扮演着重要角色。如果我们能更好地理解其中的缘由，或许就能更好地避免做出可能会让人后悔的行为。

The brain creates error-prone7 simplifications

大脑的简化处理容易出错

In order to manage all of the data it must process in a day， the brain creates information-processing short-cuts， or simplifications. An information-processing simplification （sometimes called bias） is a processing filter that results from being confronted with an incomplete or overwhelming amount of information. Simplifications streamline8 or attempt to clarify large or incomplete data sets and allow us to reach decisions that would otherwise be daunting. They also conserve precious “mental energy.” As such， these simplifications are “default programs” for processing large amounts of data or for making decisions in stressful situations. These simplifications do indeed simplify decision making; most importantly， however， they often lead us to make mistakes. The worst part of this scenario is， in most cases， the more we are confronted with ambiguous or overwhelming amounts of information to process， the more we revert to these automatic error-prone decision-making simplifications. Thus， we learn to become better at making mistakes！

为了应对一天之中不得不处理的全部数据，大脑生成了信息处理的捷径，或称为信息简化处理。当大脑面对不完整或过量的信息时，就会进行信息简化处理（有时也被称为偏见），它是一种信息处理过滤器。简化处理能够高效处理或尝试厘清大量或不完整的数据集，这样我们下决定时就不会觉得格外棘手。简化处理还为我们节省了宝贵的“心理能量”。因此，当需要处理大量数据或在压力下做决定时，简化处理便成了“默认程序”。虽然简化处理确实能让决策变得简单，但关键是，它也时常诱使我们犯错。并且最糟糕的是，一般来说，我们越是经常面对模棱两可或过量的信息，就越倾向于这些下意识的、易出错的决策简化处理。因此，我们学会了更擅长犯错！

Why it’s hard to learn from our mistakes

为何难以从错误中吸取教训

So why is it we don’t simply make a mistake， learn from it and move on？ The answer is our brains perceive ambiguity9 and overstimulation as “threats” that must be defended against. Defense mechanisms are designed to ensure our survival in stressful situations. As such， they override10 our otherwise natural tendencies for corrective learning from our mistakes. In fact， the more we use these simplifications， the stronger they become. For example， worry is a defense mechanism. The more we worry， the greater our subsequent inclination to worry. For decades I have been intrigued with the chemical and micro-anatomic bases of these self-defending survival patterns and have written about their underlying mechanism long-term potentiation11 based upon something called neuroplasticity12 in the book A Clinical Guide to the Treatment of the Human Stress Response. Neuroplasticity refers to the inclination of the brain to change its shape and function based upon the repeated introduction of information （stimulation）. With time and use， the brain develops preferential pathways for information processing， decision making and action. The more we do anything， we alter our brains to become better at it. This includes worry， irritability， impulsiveness and patterns of thought that contribute to poor decision making.

为什么我们不是简单地从犯错到吸取教训然后继续前行呢？答案在于我们的大脑将模棱两可和过度刺激视为必须抵制的“威胁”。防御机制旨在确保我们能在压力情况下生存。正因如此，防御机制会压制我们的天然倾向，而我们原本会自然而然从错误中吸取经验自我矫正。实际上，简化处理会随着使用频率的增多而被强化。例如，忧虑是一种防御机制，我们越是经常忧虑，随后忧虑的倾向就越大。这种自动防御的生存模式的化学和微观组织基础，数十年来一直让我感兴趣。我在《人类压力反应治疗临床指南》一书中指出，这种模式的底层机制是基于神经功能重塑的长时程增强。神经功能重塑是指根据重复引入的信息（刺激），大脑具有改变其形状和功能的趋向。随着时间的推移和不断的使用，大脑会形成不同的优先路径分别用于信息处理、决策和行动。无论何事，我们做得越多，大脑就会随之改变，让我们愈发擅长此事，包括导致糟糕决策的忧虑、易怒、冲动和思维模式。

4 dangerous oversimplifications

四种有危害的过度简化

It has been said that recognition is the first step toward solving a problem. So， what do these error-prone simplifications look like？ Here are four common energy-saving simplifications.

人们常说发现问题是解决问题的第一步。那么，这些易造成错误的简化是什么样的呢？以下是四种常见又偷懒的简化处理。

Binary13 thinking： When confronted with ambiguous or an overwhelming amount of data， we tend to boil decisions down to simple “all or none，” “yes or no” decisions. Sadly， the world we live in is dimensional， not binary. Binary decision making increases volatility14. It causes us to ignore the details that can be the difference between success and failure.

二元思维：面对含糊不清或过量的数据时，我们倾向于将决策归结为简单的“全或无”“是或否”。可惜，我们生活的世界是多维的，而不是二元的。非黑即白的决策增加了波动性，致使我们忽视了细节，而这些细节有可能关乎成败。

Intuitive thinking： Intuitive thinking is reflexive. It uses very little energy. It employs pattern recognition and makes decisions based upon previous experience exclusively. It inhibits innovation. It can be wrong 70 percent of the time.

直觉思维：直觉思维是反射性的思维方式，几乎不消耗能量。直觉思维运用模式识别并且完全基于以往的经验做出决定。它妨碍创新，而且有70%的概率是错误的。

Confirmative thinking： The brain does not like dissonance15. As a result， it searches for information that confirms the biases we already hold and the decisions we’ve already made. It rejects anything that does not fit our predetermined narrative. This simplification makes compromise with others impossible. It hinders creativity. It foretells the demise16 of the organization or system within which it becomes the norm.

确认性思维：大脑不喜欢分歧。因此，大脑会搜集信息来巩固我们已有的成见和已做的决定。大脑会否定任何与我们事先认定的内容相悖的东西。这种简化处理让我们难以与他人妥协。它阻碍了创造。当确认性思维在一个组织或系统中成为常态，预示着该组织或系统将走向衰落。

Primary-effect thinking： This refers to our tendency to make decisions thinking only of the primary outcome desired. It prohibits us from considering Robert Merton’s Law of Unintended Consequences. Every decision exerts an unintended ripple effect， even the decision not to decide. History is replete with examples of problems made worse by the unintended consequences of their intended solutions.

首要后果思维：指我们在做决定时倾向于只考虑最希望得到的结果。这阻止了我们去考虑罗伯特·默顿的意外后果定律。每个决定，即使选择不做决定，都会激起意想不到的连锁反应。历史上充满了因为预期方案出现意外后果而使问题恶化的例子。

Overwriting is the key

重写是关键

From the perspective of information processing， overwriting refers to the process of creating new information and functionally superimposing17 it on preexisting information. Overwriting may consist of two processes： 1） the creation of competing information pathways which with time and use subordinate the preexisting pathways， or 2） utilization of the same characters or infrastructure which serves to erase any trace of the preexisting pathways. This overwriting process is applicable to pathways in the brain as well. So powerful are these mechanisms， we believe they may even be capable of overriding some genetic programming.

从信息处理的角度来看，重写是创造新的信息，并将新信息实用地叠加到原有信息上。重写可能包含两个过程：1）生成对抗信息路径，随着时间的推移和不断使用，对抗信息路径会取代原有信息路径而居于支配地位；或者 2）利用相同的字符或基础结构抹去原有信息路径的所有痕迹。重写过程同样适用于由大脑生成的路径。重写机制是如此强大，我们认为它们甚至有能力覆盖某些遗传编程。

Clearly， repetition appears to be the most powerful way of overwriting. This is the essence of learning. But recent research has shown there are three ways to actually improve acquisition of new information： over-learning， exercise and sleep. Think of these as ways of increasing the power of repetition.

显然，重复是最有效的重写方式，是学习的本质。但最近的研究表明，有三种方法能够切实改善新信息的获取：过度学习、运动和睡眠。要将这三者视作强化重复效力的方式。

The chemical basis of learning is complex， but we know the chemicals epinephrine and glutamate are involved. These chemicals serve to open the door for acquisition. But have you ever practiced something only to quickly forget it？ Recent research suggests that once new information is acquired， it needs to be consolidated， “sealed in，” so to speak. The gamma aminobutyric acid （GABA） appears to help with consolidation. GABA is released subsequent to epinephrine and glutamate， but apparently most significantly in over-learning situations. There is a popular belief that it requires 10，000 repetitions to achieve this level of over-learning. This assertion has been challenged. Certainly， the level of effort associated with over-learning will vary across tasks.

虽然学习的化学基础复杂，但我们已经知道其中涉及肾上腺素和谷氨酸。这些化学物质有助于开启信息获取的大门。你是否曾练习过某些东西却很快又忘记了？最近的研究表明，一旦获得新信息，就需要对其进行巩固，也可说是“封印”。γ-氨基丁酸（GABA）似乎有助于信息巩固。GABA的分泌虽然滞后于肾上腺素和谷氨酸，但其在过度学习情境中的促进效果似乎最为显著。有一种流行的说法：10，000次的重复才能达到过度学习的水准。这种说法已受到质疑。确实，过度学习所需的努力程度会因任务而异。

Research tells us that physical exercise prior to trying to learn new material increases acquisition and retention. Thirty minutes of physical exercise seems to be adequate to “prime” the brain for learni71b4ad9ca5b92da735af8a3111163106ng. Exercise increases the release of brain-derived neurotrophic factor （BDNF）， which is a chemical that appears to increase neuroplasticity.

研究表明，在尝试学习新材料之前进行体育运动有助于信息的获取和留存。30分钟的运动似乎就足以让大脑为学习“做好准备”。运动增加了脑源性神经营养因子（BDNF）的释放，这是一种似乎能增加神经可塑性的化学物质。

Lastly， sleep actually affects learning. Prior to the onset of deep sleep， there is a state known as the hypnagogic18 state. The brain appears to be more receptive to the consolidation of new information in this state. So， if you want to learn something， study or psychologically rehearse the new material as you fall asleep. Interestingly， BDNF is released most in deep sleep， so the actual point of consolidation remains unclear. It may be that falling asleep with new information simply gives it higher priority for later consolidation.

最后，睡眠确实会影响学习。在进入深度睡眠之前，还有一种状态被称为睡前状态。处于这种状态下，大脑似乎更愿意巩固新信息。所以，如果你想学习某样东西，那就在入睡时记诵或在心里默诵新材料。有趣的是，在深度睡眠阶段BDNF释放得最多，因此巩固具体何时发生仍不得而知。也有可能，带着新信息入睡只是为稍后的巩固赋予了更高的优先级。

（译者为“《英语世界》杯”翻译大赛获奖者）

1（1879—1935），美国幽默作家。他所说的“Common sense ain’t common.”意指常识并不多见于人，或很多人缺乏常识。 2 psychologist心理学家。 3 incessant不停的，持续不断的。 4 bombardment轰击；炮击；痛斥。 5 dampen抑制，减轻；使潮湿。

6 cripple使残废；使成瘸子；严重毁坏。 7 error-prone易出错的。 8 streamline使（系统、机构等）效率更高。

9 ambiguity歧义；模棱两可。 10 override制服，压倒；废弃；推翻（决议）。 11 long-term potentiation长时程增强：突触前神经元在短时间内受到快速重复刺激后，在突触后神经元快速形成持续较长时间的兴奋性突触后电位增强的现象。

12 neuroplasticity神经功能重塑：神经控制功能受损后，神经组织通过自我调控和代偿发生的适应性改变。 13 binary二元的；二进制的。 14 volatility变动不止，反复无常。

15 dissonance不一致，不和谐。 16 demise死亡；终止；失败。

17 superimpose（把……）加在……的上面；附加，添加。

18 hypnagogic〈心理〉（与）睡前状态（有关）的。