盲盒经济

陈德彰

前不久，“盲盒經济”突然崛起。“盲盒”俘获了大量忠粉的心，人们对之入迷。有一对夫妇为此四个月花了20万元，还有一位60岁的玩家，一年花费70多万元购买盲盒。数据显示，某二手购物平台过去一年有30万盲盒玩家在其平台交易。

盲盒里面通常装的是动漫、影视作品的周边玩偶，或专门设计出来的玩偶。但盒子上没有标注，只有打开盒子才会知道自己抽到了什么。这和买彩票颇为相似，都有赌运气的成分。

单个盲盒的价格通常为三五十元。相对购买力较强、受影视动漫文化熏陶的年轻人，能够撑起庞大的盲盒经济。从上游的IP设计，到中游的零售，再到下游的二手交易和玩偶改装，其产业链已相当成熟，且市场空间巨大，当然也在不断掏空年轻人的口袋。

不过，盲盒成瘾说到底是源于赌徒心理，相对于彩票，它高度不透明。售卖盲盒的商家是否放大了“中奖”概率，变相诱导购买，我们还不得而知，使得盲盒成为消费陷阱。而且，盲盒中的物品是不是山寨产品，同样是个未知数。另一方面，“盲盒经济”带火了二手交易，一些拆出来的经典、限量款玩偶，在二手交易平台上价格暴涨，溢价甚至达到三四十倍。其火爆行情，到底是真实供需关系的结果，还是有商家投机炒作的因素，对盲盒玩家来说很难判断。

此外，“盲盒经济”基于收藏的文化潮流。“盲盒经济”的受众，很多是涉世未深的未成年人，他们对市场风险的识别能力相对较低。因此，他们被刻意夸大的“中奖”概率吸引，不断投入金钱去购买盲盒，以获得心仪的玩偶，或者在二手交易平台上花高价购买盲盒玩偶，认为可以保值升值，却有可能陷入设计好的套路。所以有必要提醒年轻人节制消费、避免成瘾。监管部门应进一步规范市场，对交易不透明以及各类违规炒作及时清理打击，以保证这一新兴行业能够良性运转。

国内最火的盲盒品牌“泡泡玛特”于2010年创立，2014—2016年连续亏损。2017年登上新三板后仅用一年时间就转亏为盈，2018年净利润较2016年增长140倍。国泰君安证券研究发文《盲盒经济：好奇不仅害死猫，还能掏空你的钱包》。

Not long ago， “blind box economy” suddenly sprang up. The blind box has won the heart of large numbers of faithful fans. People simply get enchanted in it. A couple spent 200 thousand yuan on them. Another sixty-year-old guy spent over 700 thousand yuan in buying blind boxes. Statistics showed last year that 300 thousand hobbyists made deals through a second-hand shopping platform.

The blind boxes usually contain peripheral dolls of comics and animation， or film and television， or specially designed ones. But there is no mark on the box， and only after opening it can the buyer see what he has raffled. This is rather like buying lottery tickets， for the buyer has to bet on his luck.

A single blind box usually costs about thirty to fifty yuan. It is the young people who have purchase power and those who have been exerting influence on culture of comics and animation， or film and television can sustain the huge blind box economy. From the upstream IP （Intellectual Property） design to the midstream retailing， and then to the downstream second-hand trade and doll repackage， the whole industrial chain is fairly mature and there is a huge market space. Of course， it also continuously empties the pockets of the young people.

However， addiction to blind boxes is much like that to gambling. It is highly nontransparent compared with lottery ticket. Nobody knows whether sellers of blind boxes exaggerated the winning rate so as to induce people to buy them in disguised form， thus digging a consumption trap. Besides， it is also unknown if the objects in the blind boxes may turn out to be copycat products. The blind box economy promoted its second-hand trade. The price of some classic dolls or dolls of limited edition have skyrocketed in second-hand trade platforms， and some may reach thirty to forty fold. But it is difficult for buyers to judge whether it is the result of real supply and demand， or the consequence of businessmens speculation.

The basis of the “blind box economy” is the cultural trend of collection. Many of the target consumers are of minors who have scanty experience of life， whose capacity of discernment is relatively low. They are thus attracted by deliberately exaggerated probability of “winning a prize” and incessantly throw money to buy blind boxes in order to gain cherished dolls. Or they may buy at secondhand trade platform high-priced blind box dolls， thinking they can maintain value preservation and appreciation， thus falling into the fixed pattern of trap carefully designed by businessmen. Therefore， it is necessary to remind young people to control their consumption lest they become addicted. Supervision department should further regulate the market， timely liquidate and crack down on the nontransparent trade and various hypes against the regulation， so as to ensure benign operation of this new trade.

Pop Mart， the hottest brand of blind box， was founded in 2010， but it sustained losses successively from 2014 to 2016. However， after it mounted onto the new third board in 2017， in the time of one year it showed a turn from loss to profit， and in 2018 its net profit increased by 140 fold than 2016. Based on research， Guotai Junan Securities published an article entitled “Curiosity Not Only Kills the Cat but Also Burns Your Wallet”.