Things to Consider When Deciding to Buy or Rent 买房还是租房——这是一个问题

黄湘淇

中国人素来安土重迁，需得安居才可乐业，觉得房子还是自己的好，但随着现代社会中人口流动的增多和城市房价的飙升，租房也成为越来越多人的选择，特别是离开家乡在外打拼的年轻人，他们秉承“我们的房子是租来的，但我们的生活不是”的态度经营自己在异乡的小日子。情怀归情怀，但作为一个“理性人”，买房还是租房归根结底应该当成一道计算题，输入各种变量，权衡利弊后得到一个客观的结果，大大规避可预见的风险。

Whether to buy or rent a home is among the biggest financial decisions most of us make. It is basically a complex math problem in which the reward for getting it right can be tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars—and the punishment for getting it wrong similarly enormous.

Fortunately， there are many tools to help you work through the math， such as some online calculators. But there are some dimensions1 of rent versus buy that are really important but difficult to account for in dollar terms. They have to do with how owning a home lets you stop worrying about rent increases， forces you to save money， and on the flip side， how renting means you dont have to worry about the unpredictable costs of maintaining a home. Anyone trying to make a housing decision should at least think about them a bit before taking， or not taking， the plunge2.

Protection against Rising Rents

Suppose you live in a city that you find desirable and could envision living in for a very long time.3 Suppose you work in a field in which you cant plausibly4 expect your income to rise significantly in the decades ahead.

That makes a case for buying over renting.

We dont know the future of rents and home prices， either nationally or for any particular region. But one thing we do know is that sometimes rents and prices will skyrocket5 in a particular place. It has happened in New York and San Francisco since the 1990s； the same happened in Los Angeles from the 1960s to the 1980s， and a century ago one could say the same of Chicago and Detroit.

Buying a home is a way of locking in an affordable place to live， essentially an insurance policy against escalating6 rents. If you rent， you are forever at risk of your regions becoming newly popular， attracting an influx7 of people and high-paying jobs that drives up your cost of living beyond what your income can support.

Of course， your region may not be one of those new boom areas， in which case this insurance policy would prove unnecessary； you could even end up in a place with falling rents and home values， like Detroit in the last couple of decades. But thats the nature of insurance： You may pay for it but turn out not to need it.

How much is this insurance policy worth？ If taken to an extreme， it could lead you to make bad decisions. During the housing boom at the middle of the last decade， people used “If I dont buy now， I wont be able to afford to buy tomorrow” as a rationale8 to overpay for homes. Two factors that might help shape your decision：

1. How disruptive9 would it be for you to move somewhere else？ The more disruptive， the more you should value this insurance against higher rents.

2. How freely does your city allow new home building？ Rents are less likely to increase sharply if the housing supply can rise to meet new demand.

Forced Savings

Sometimes people say that renting is “just throwing money away，” which is a little misleading. You could just as easily say that when you buy a home， the mortgage interest and property taxes you pay are throwing money away.10

But that line of thinking does get one dimension of home buying right： When you buy a home with a standard mortgage， you gradually pay off the balance—slowly at first， faster as time goes on. Someone who takes out a $500，000， 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 4 percent has paid down about $8，000 of debt after one year， and $47，000 after five years.

In terms of a personal balance sheet， less debt is equivalent to11 more savings—assuming the value of the home is stable or rising. People who buy houses while in their early 30s with a 30-year mortgage and stay in it will own a valuable asset free and clear when they hit retirement age. They could either live rent- or mortgage-payment free during retirement， or sell the house， move somewhere cheaper and have a nice pile of cash savings.

Theoretically， one could construct the same strategy while renting， putting money away into a savings or investment account while paying a landlord for a place to live. The beauty of owning is that it happens automatically， by virtue of12 paying your mortgage. That means less temptation to spend the money instead of saving in a given month； you can get access to it through a home-equity loan， but that requires making the active effort of going to a bank.

So if， psychologically， you find it hard to save and are always tempted to take a vacation rather than plow money into a brokerage account，13 buying a house with borrowed money is a way to trick yourself into doing so and help ensure you have a meaningful net worth when retirement rolls around.

Volatility14 of Maintenance Costs

These have all been quirks of homeownership that tilt the economics in favor of buying.15 But heres an important one that points in the other direction. Both renters and homeowners pay costs for maintenance on their properties； they just do so in different ways with very different implications.

If you rent and the dishwasher breaks， your landlord is on the hook16 to repair or replace it. You may ultimately pay the bill in the sense that expected maintenance costs are built into the rent you pay， but you have no risk of that number varying depending on luck. Homeowners， on the other hand， face not a set monthly payment covering the costs of repairs and maintenance， but a great deal of volatility.

An urgent $2，000 air-conditioner repair bill， or even a $15，000 roof repair， might arise at any time. Other things， like replacing a shabby carpet or applying a fresh coat of paint， allow the homeowner more control over when the transaction happens， but still， its a lumpy pattern of expenditures.17

Most rent versus buy calculators ask users to put in an estimate of monthly maintenance costs for the home they would purchase. But the issue is not the expected average of those costs but the possibility of their lumpiness and unpredictability. That can be especially problematic for a person who empties savings to buy a home only to need to pay for an expensive repair a few months later.

None of these factors alone should be decisive， and the basics that you plug into online calculators—like the monthly mortgage payment， rent on a comparable place and closing costs—are more important. But when its a close call18， weighing these factors carefully—and how much they apply in your particular case—can help you make a smarter housing decision.

房子是买还是租，成了我们大部分人需要做出的最重大的一项财务决定。从根本上说，这其实就是一道复杂的数学题，做对的回报就是能省几万甚至几十万的钱，但做错的惩罚也同样金额庞大。

幸运的是，有很多工具可以帮助你解开这道数学题，比如一些在线计算器。但在是租还是买这个问题上，也存在很多重要方面难以用钱来衡量。这其中包括你拥有了一个安居之处就不用再为房租上涨而发愁，也逼着你去存钱，但反过来，租房则意味着你不用去担忧房屋维护上不可预见的各项支出。任何人在试图做出住房决定前，至少都要考虑考虑要不要冒这个险。

防止涨租的保护措施

假设你住在心仪的城市，并能预见到自己会在那里生活很长一段时间。假设在未来几十年中，你所在的工作领域不太可能让你收入大涨。

这种情况下，买房胜于租房。

我们无法知晓房租和房价的未来走势，不论是国内还是任何一个地区。但我们能知道的一点是，有时某个特定区域的房租和房价会飞涨。20世纪90年代起，纽约和旧金山就发生了这种情况。同样的情况发生在20世纪60年代到80年代的洛杉矶，还有一个世纪前的芝加哥和底特律。

买下一处房产是一种锁定实惠的安居之处的方法，本质上就是防止房租不断上涨的保险措施。如果你租房，就永远冒着一定的风险—— 一旦你所在的区域“走红”，便会引来一众人口和高薪工作，抬高你的生活成本，使其超出你收入水平能够支撑的范围。

当然，你所在区域不一定会成为新兴地区之一，在这种情况下，保险措施就会显得没有必要；你还可能陷入房租和房价下跌的境地，正如过去几十年间底特律那样。但这就是保险的本质：你可能为此掏了钱，结果却派不上用场。

这个保险措施到底值多少钱呢？走极端的话会导致你做出错误的决定。在过去的10年中，房产一度过热，人们都以“我今天不买，以后就买不起”为由，溢价购置房产。有两个因素可能导致你下定决心：

1. 如果你搬往别处，对你生活的破坏程度会有多大？破坏程度越大，你越该倚重保险措施以应对上升的房租。

2. 你所在城市对新建房屋的开放空间多大？如果新房源可以不断供应来满足新需求，那房租就不太可能剧烈上升。

被迫存钱

有时人们说租房就是“拿钱打水漂”，这种说法有点误导大家。因为你也可以轻易地说买了房子，要付的抵押贷款利息和房产税同样是打水漂。

但这种思路确实说对了买房的一个方面：当你用标准抵押贷款买房时，你是逐步地还清贷款——刚开始很慢，后来越来越快。有人以每年4%的固定利息贷了50万美元，期限为30年，一年后大约还清8，000美元，五年后还清47，000美元。

从个人资产负债方面看，假定房屋的价值是稳定或上升的，更少的负债便相当于更多的积蓄。在30岁出头时买房的人们贷30年的款，并一直住在里面的话，等到了退休的年纪，他们就坐拥一处值钱的房产，并且没有任何债务负担。他们就能安享退休生活，无需再交房租或者偿还抵押贷款；他们还可以卖掉房子，搬到房价更低的地方，并能得到一笔可观的现金存款。

理论上，人们也可以就租房构建一套相同的战略，一边交钱给房东，得到一个落脚之处，另一边把剩下的钱存进储蓄或投资账户。而有房的好处就在于，通过偿还抵押贷款，这两方面自动发生了。这就意味花钱的诱惑变少了，而不是在特定的一个月里去省钱；这点你可以通过住房抵押贷款做到，但这也要求你得勤往银行跑。

如果是这样，从心理上看，你会发现存钱很难，总忍不住度个假什么的，而不是把钱投进交易账户去生钱，但用借来的钱买房子就是种骗自己去存钱的办法，帮助你确保在退休来临时，存下有用的净资产。

房屋维护成本的波动性

一直都有些关于房屋自有的说辞使国家经济偏向买房。但这里有个关键的说法是指向另一个方向的。租房者和买房者都为房产的维护支出，只是用不同的方式，也有着不同的结果。

如果你所租房子里的洗碗机坏了，你的房东显然是要修理或者更换的。在某种意义上，最终为此买单的可能是你，因为预计维护成本是包含在你的房租里的，但你不用去承担那些随机变动的数字所产生的风险。而另一方面，自有房主面对的尽管不是每月在维修维护上的固定支出，但却是巨大的波动。

一张2，000美元的空调急修费用单，甚至一笔高达15，000美元的屋顶修缮费，都是随时可能出现的。其他的情况，像换掉破旧的地毯或重新上一层漆，都允许自有房主在处理时有更大的控制权，但无论怎样，支出的曲线都是上下波动的。

大多数对比买租的计算器都要求使用者填写所购房屋每月预计的维护成本。但问题不在于这些预计成本的平均值，而是这些成本的波动性和不可预见性。当一个人倾尽积蓄买了房子，几个月后却需要支付一大笔的维修费用时，问题就更加棘手。

这些因素中，单独一项都不应当是决定性的，那些你输进在线计算器的基本数据更为重要，如每月还贷金额，同等住房的租金和房产买卖手续费等。但当你差一点做出错误的选择时，仔细权衡这些因素——以及有多少能在你身上适用——能帮助你做出一个更明智的住房决定。

1. dimension： 方面。

2. take the plunge： （思考之后）决定冒险一试。

3. desirable： 令人满意的，值得要的；envision： 设想，展望。

4. plausibly： 似乎可能地，似乎可靠地。

5. skyrocket： 飞涨，突然高升。

6. escalating： 逐步上升的。

7. influx： 涌入。

8. rationale： 基本原理，理论基础。

9. disruptive： 破坏的，制造混乱的。

10. mortgage： 房屋抵押贷款；property： 房产，资产。

11. be equivalent to： 等于，相当于。

12. by virtue of： 由于，凭借。

13. plow： 犁耕；brokerage account： （投资用的）经纪账户，交易账户。

14. volatility： 波动性。

15. quirk： 借口；homeownership： 居者有其屋，自置居所；tilt： 偏袒，使倾斜。

16. on the hood： 明显地，显而易见。

17. transaction： 交易，事务； lumpy： 凹凸不平的，高低不平的；expenditure： 费用，支出。

18. close call： 千钧一发，险死还生。