大趋势和小趋势

撰文：沈悦

大趋势和小趋势

撰文：沈悦

预测未来对任何人来讲都是有难度的，特别是对景观的世界。我学生中的大多数人在入学前都能简洁地回答“景观”是什么，但在真正接受了景观的正规教育后却难于回答或者是无法简单地回答这个他们入学前就曾经回答过的问题，有人甚至说自从深入地学习了景观理论后反而不知景观为何事何物了。这是由于他们知道了这个学科的多样性、复杂性和至难的预测性。景观（landscape）实际上是与一个个具体的地域环境相联系的事物。不同地域环境，不同地域的社会文化都会酿出不同性质的景观智慧。比如在日本提起都市景观或开放空间时，防灾避险的内容会必不可少地被提起，而在离日本不远的韩国，就没有绿地防灾的概念。所以对于景观而言，抛开具体环境来议论的话就会空乏至极。也可以说，一切空头的、抽象的、放之四海而皆准的景观公式是没有的。我的学生正是在经历了来自“空间性”、“社会性”、“生态性”、“文化性”、“医疗福址性”等多重侧面的景观专业教育训练后，认识到了景观的多元，继而怀疑既有的理论系统，应该说是一个极大的进步，也是未来的希望。

在我看来，景观这一行业虽具多样化的特征，但从始至今总是围绕“人与自然环境的关系”为中心而作反复议论。在这一轴线上它有偏重视觉艺术的时代，也有把生态学理论作全面推举的时期。每一个阶段都有它的社会背景，或者说有当时的主流意识支撑。其实回过头来看看历史，谁都能说出一些。即便有观点的不同也不会左右太远，因为有事实摆在那儿。难说的事情是什么？就是本篇的约稿题：预测景观的未来。将来会怎么样，谁都不清楚，谁都想知道。我当然也不敢冒言具体事物，仅以个人观点推论的话可以提出几点趋势以作抛砖引玉。第一类是大趋势，范围是可横跨几个经济水平差不多的国家。第二类是小趋势，可收缩在中国等发展中国家。从国际的大趋势来看，减碳、生物多样性、能源革命的三大潮流将是影响景观领域的发展方向。这里面虽然有争论（比如地球环境暖化原因是否在于碳素增加），但是由于这些问题已被公认为社会问题，所以已经集中了大量的公共预算和技术研发，景观领域同样被卷在其中。比如在减碳方面，日本国土交通省属下研究所不仅在城市的资源循环上作了深层探索，还花精力把有30年树龄的各种树木作为研究对象而进行彻底干燥，从而导算出每一个树种的吸碳量。这一成果也许会导致广域范围的绿色景观的变化和苗木生产的取向。而在南半球的新西兰，在生物多样性的新潮到来之始时就全面地铺开了以自生植物为基础的景观再建。我们相信上述的这种大趋势在今后的一定时期内会继续带动各个国家或地区的技术开发而带来城市景观的逐渐翻新。那么具体到各个小地域会怎么样？在人口众多的亚洲城市不仅有着人均土地占有率少、还有宗教和习俗多样、并彼此独立的特征。所以，对于这些城市，今后会在“城市空间高效利用”方面出现更切实际的研究，这些城市空间内会更多地出现屋顶、壁面、室内、地下、甚至空中的各种概念的绿色空间。也会因为文化的多元和独立而出现更多的有亚洲文化的魅力空间，只是需要祈祷他们不会被另一种文化覆盖。

从另一个角度来说，虽然景观世界会变得越来越多样，但支撑它的社会机制可能会愈来愈简单化。网络的发达使许多工作的中间环节被去掉，固有的平台被打破，机会被均等地给了每一个人。在这种背景下，我相信，无须多久，最具爆发力的发展中国家中会出现让世界刮目相看的案例和人才。

Predicting the future is no doubt difficult for anyone， but when it comes to the future for landscape it’s even more unpredictable. Most of my students were able to answer easily what “landscape is” before entering school and being taught. But after entering school and being lectured properly，the students may no longer answer or even understand what landscape really is. This is because they recognized the diverseness， complexity， and the unpredictable expansion of the concept that the landscape holds.

We must keep in mind that the actual landscapes are always connected with specific district or area. It is also recognized that the natural environment or social culture of that area is closely related with the landscape formation， and also the wisdom of landscape formation is born from those area.

For example， when the word， landscapes or open spaces in urban areas， are brought up in Japan， keywords such as disaster prevention or evacuation will also arise. However in South Korea - not so far from Japan- there are no ideas such as green space disaster defense. This indicates that landscapes are meaningless when it is discussed without its specific background， such as its country，land or region of space. Also there are no formula for landscapes that can be used worldwide， since the idea is so abstract.

My students were taught about the multilayered landscape-spatial， social， ecological， cultural and aspects of medical welfare- and were able to recognize the multiplicity of landscape， yet not able to clearly explain the meaning of it， and even starting to doubt the validity of the theoretical concept of the landscape. This is substantial growth and their future is promising.

From my point of view， I have always been discussing the landscape in relation between human and natural environment. Based upon this idea， there were times when visual arts were highly valued or times when ecological importance covered the entire range of this field. The progress for each stages were influenced from the social background or mainstream opinion at that time. However， the theme is ‘the future of landscape’which is quite difficult to say. Most would want to know about the future of the landscape field， but no one can predict it. I myself， can only vaguely say regarding the future， but made a rough speculation as follows.

One of the big trend applies for countries with stable economy. And the other trend is rather small， but adapts in countries in Asian areas. The three streams that will influence the future of landscape are CO2reduction， biodiversity and energy revolution. These three are already dealt as societal strategies， which prodigious public funding and technological development are concentrated and the landscape field will most definitely be involved. The stream of CO2reduction， for instance， the research institute of Ministry of Land，Infrastructure， Transport and Tourism in Japan are experimenting trees that are thirty years old， and calculating the CO2absorbing ability for each type of tree. This achievement will greatly influence the development for the green landscape as well as the productions of nursery stocks. In the meantime，New Zealand at the Southern hemisphere， is also joining the stream for biodiversity， and is now fully renovating its existing landscape with native vegetation. This changing movement of landscape，occurring all around the world will likely go on for a while. The trend in the Asian area can also be seen. Most cities in Asia are highly populated and multiethnic. The studies about the “beneficial usage of urban open space” will further develop within these cities， and there may be greenspace in rooftops， walls， within buildings， under grounds and even in midair， the types we have never seen before， and with the help of coexistence of diverse culture， more and more unique and alluring small spaces within cities may develop.

The landscapes all around the world seem to become diverse， but at the same time， the foundation of landscape works may become simplified. Most works are simplified due to the development of the digitalization and diffuse of internets and also the increase of intelligence sharing lead to end the monopoly on works for some portion of organization or persons.

I truly believe in the near future， an inspirational landscape within the growing countrieshaving an explosive power and awellreceived human resources will appear.

Big Trend， Small Trend

Text by： SHEN Yue

沈悦/日本兵库县立大学大学院教授、景观设计领域主席/淡路景观园艺学校景观设计研究部门主任

Biography：

SHEN Yue is a Professor of the Graduate School of Landscape Design and Management in University of Hyogo， Japan.