Evaluation of Environmental Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Jiangxi Province

Zhiping YE，Lihong MENG

1.School of Geography and Planning，Gannan Normal University，Ganzhou 341000，China；

2.Longhu School in Heping County，Heyuan City，Heyuan 517000，China

Evaluation of Environmental Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Jiangxi Province

Zhiping YE1，2*，Lihong MENG1

1.School of Geography and Planning，Gannan Normal University，Ganzhou 341000，China；

2.Longhu School in Heping County，Heyuan City，Heyuan 517000，China

In order to quantitatively evaluate the sustainable development status of water resources in Jiangxi Province，the dynamic changes in ecological footprint，carrying capacity and load index of water resources in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013 were analyzed according to the primary principle and calculation model of ecological footprint.The results showed that in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013，the water resources ecological footprint per capita was relatively low；the water resources utilization level was relatively low；the overall development potential of water resources was great；the water resources ecological carrying capacity per capita and ecological footprint per capita were trended to be increased overall.The changes in water resources ecological footprint are closely related to the social and economic development.Therefore，the industrial structure should be fully adjusted，and the water resources should be scheduled and utilized reasonably so as to promote the protection of water resources and sustainable development of society and economic in Jiangxi Province.

Ecological footprint；Water resource load index；Ecological carrying capacity

W ater is a basic natural resource of human production and living，is an important part of strategic economic resource and regional comprehensive strength，and is also one of the controlling factors of ecological environment［1］.Water shortage is becoming more and more serious，and the distribution of water resource is also uneven at time and space.The matching condition among water resource，population and productivity is not ideal，and the ecology and environment is relatively fragile. Even worse，there are various problems existing in the development and utilization of regional water resources. Thus，the regional sustainable development depends largely on the sustainable development and utilization of water resources［2］.The domestic related researches evaluate water resource ecological pressure and sustainable utilization mainly from the perspective of ecological footprint theory.Ecological footprint is a comprehensive accounting tool for evaluating the sustainable utilization status of resources，and it is mainly used for quantitative measurement and evaluation of the sustainable development of an area［3］.Ecological footprint theory was proposed by William E.Rees in 1992，and its calculation principle and method were developed and optimized by Wackernagel.Ecological footprint refers to the biologically productive area required by producing all the resources for the population within a certain area and absorbing its wastes［4］.Ecological footprint reflects the regional resource demand level，while ecological carrying capacity reflects the regional resource supply capacity.Theyrevealthe ecological thresholds for human continued survivaland development.Ecological deficit or surplus，difference between regional ecological footprint（aggregate supply）and ecological carryingcapacity（aggregate demand），can be used to evaluate the regional sustainable development status at different level.The accurate measurement and analysis of ecological water resource status is beneficial to realize the variation trend of water resources in Jiangxi Province，which has guiding significance for promoting the protection of water resources and sustainable development of society and economic in Jiangxi Province.

In terms of research on ecological footprint，domestic and foreign scholars have turned their attention from traditional static and qualitative model to dynamic and quantitative model，and from single factor to multiple factors，and even the whole ecosystem. The researches on ecological footprint have been conducted along the direction of retrospectivity，dynamism and predictability.Haberl et al.studied the calculation method of long-term ecological footprint.They calculated the ecological footprint in Austria during 1926-1955 by the constant world's yield method，variable world's yield method and variable local actual yield method.Using the global annual average yield and the local actual annual average yields，Wackernagel et al.calculated the ecological footprints and actual land demands of Philippines，South Korea and Austria during 1961-1999.The van of empirical researches on ecological footprint has been expanded gradually，covering nation，provincial and municipal administrative region，industry and product.On the basis of ecological footprint model and statistical data，the ecological footprint and carrying capacity can be calculated，and the reasons forecological deficit can be analyzed.Water resource is a kind of natural resource simultaneously with economic and social value，and it has an irreplaceable position and role for maintaining the ecological environment and conducting social production. The ecological model of Wackernagel narrowed the scope of use of water resources in the calculation.To solve this problem，Huang et al.established a water resource ecological footprint calculation model by introducing the land used by water resources，the VII land type，into the ecological footprint calculation［6］. Many scholars further studied the basic theory and calculation method of ecological footprint model，and they conducted empirical analysis on water resource ecological footprint in Shannxi，Ningxia，Heilongjiang and Shule River Basin.

Jiangxi Province is rich in water resources.However，the distribution of water resources in Jiangxi Province is extremely uneven at time and space. Even worse，drought and flood disasters occur frequently in Jiangxi Province［7］.In Jiangxi Province，the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is prominent；the exploitation and utilization rate of water resources is relatively low；the water environment is increasingly worsened.According to Wackernagel's calculation model of ecological footprint，Ye et al.calculated and analyzed ecological footprint in Jiangxi Province in 2004.The results showed that the ecological footprint，ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit per capita were 1.640 6，0.767 2 and 0.873 4 hm2，respectively，which had been in a state of unsustainable development［8］.There has been currently no research on water resource ecological footprint and carrying capacity.Therefore，the dynamic characteristics of water resource ecological footprint and carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013 were analyzed using the water resource ecological footprint model，thereby providing certain reference and basis for developmentand utilization and scientific management of water resources and evaluation and planning of regional sustainable developmentin Jiangxi Province.

Overview of Research Area and Source of Statistical Data

Overview of research area

Jiangxi Province（24°29′14″-30° 04′41″N，113°34′36″-118°28′58″E）has an area of 166 948 km2，accounting for 1.74%of China’s total land area.The distance between east and west boundries was 490 km，and between south and north boundries was 620 km.The territory ofJiangxi Province is rectangle.Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces are in the east of Jiangxi Province，Guangdong province is in the south，Hunan Province is in the west，and Hubeiand Anhui Provinces are in the north.Jiangxi Province isalso bounded by the Yangtze River.It is rich in water resources with average annual rainfall of 1 638.4 mm，average annual total water resource of 1.57×1011m3and perunit area water resource of 9.39×105m3/km2.Jiangxi Province is one of the areas with relatively abundant water resources in China.

There are many rivers in Jiangxi Province，and among them，there are about 3 700 rivers with basin area larger than 10 km2.Most of the rivers flow into Poyang Lake，forming the Poyang Laky water system.The Poyang Lake water system includes Gan River，Fu River，Xin River，Rao River and Xiu River，total five big rivers.The basin area of the Poyang Lake water system exceeds 1.00×104km2.Among the five rivers，Gan River is the biggest，and it is also the biggest river in Jiangxi Province.The basin area of Gan River is 8.28×104km2.In addition，Qingfengshan Stream，Tongjin River，Zhangtian River and Boyang River also directly flow into Poyang Lake.The water catchment area of the Poyang Lake Basin is 1.622×105km2，and Jiangxi Province covers an area of 1.567×105km2，accounting for 94%of the whole province area.The basin area of rivers flow directly into the Yangtze River or flow outside the province accounts for 6%of the province area［7］.

Source of statistical data

The data about water consumption per capita and water resource gross amount were from the Jiangxi Provincial Water Resources bulletin（2009-2013），and the data about population and GDP were from Jiangxi StatisticalYearbook （2009-2013）（Table 1）.

Methods

Water resource ecological footprint model

Water resource ecological footprint can be defined as the water consumption for producing all the resources required by certain known population （individual，city，state，community）.All the resources aboveinclude both water resources that are essential for human life and environmental resources that provide ecosystematic services and functions for human［9］.According to the ecological footprint model of Wackernagel，similar to other accounts，water resource ecological footprint converts the water resource consumption amount into the land area used by water resources of the corresponding account.As a result，total five secondary accounts were designed for the water resource ecological footprint，including agriculturalwaterconsumption，industrial water consumption，urban public water consumption，domesticwaterconsumption and ecological and environmental water consumption.Agricultural water consumption included farmland irrigation water consumption，forestry water consumption，animal husbandrywaterconsumptionand fishery water consumption.Industrial water consumption mainly refers to the water consumption in the industrial production process.Urban public water consumption mainly refers to the water consumed by construction and service industry.Domestic water consumption included urban and rural water consumption for human daily life. Ecological and environmental water consumption refers to the water supply by water supply project（excluding river channels），except precipitation and normal runoff.It included urban and ruralecologicaland environmental water consumptions.The calculation formulas were as follows:

Wherein，EFa referred to agricultural water ecological footprint（hm2）；γw referred to global equilibrium factor of water resources；Wa referred to agricultural water consumption（m3）；Pw referred to global average production capacity of water（m3/hm2）；EF referred to industrial water ecological footprint（hm2）；Wi referred to industrial water consumption；EFc referred to urban public water ecological footprint（hm2）；Wc referred to urban public water consumption；EFl referred to domestic water ecological footprint（hm2）；EFe referred to ecological and environmental water ecological footprint（hm2）；We referred to ecological and environmentalwater consumption；EFw referred to total ecological footprint of water resources；W referred to total consumption of water resources. The water resource global equilibrium factor γw is the equilibrium factor of certain biologically productive area，and it is the quotient of average ecological productivity of certain kind of biologically productive area and average ecological productivity of various kinds of biologically productive areas across the world［5］.Therefore，water resource global equilibrium factor is the quotient of average ecological productivity of water resource ecologically productive area and average ecological productivity of various kinds of biologically productive areas across the world.To simplify the comparison，the water resource global equilibrium factor was assigned as 5.19 in this study. The water resource global average productivity Pw was described by the water production module in hydrology. According to previous study results，the water resource global average productivity is 3 140 m3/hm2.

Table 1 Social and economic development and water consumptions of Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013

Water resource ecological carrying capacity model

The ecological footprint modelbased water resource carrying capacity has natural，social and spatial attributes simultaneously.It refers to the largest water supply capacity of certain area，within a specific historical stage，for supporting the sustainable development of resources，environment and society（production，life and ecology）in the area.It is also the support capacity of water resources for benign development of ecological system and economic system.

李攀攀(1996-)，男，四川工商学院电子信息工程学院学生，主要研究方向为嵌入式系统。E-mail：2381702292@qq.com。

In the formula（7），ECw referred to water resource carrying capacity（hm2）；N referred to population；ecw referred to water resource carrying capacity per capita（hm2）；γw referred to water resource global equilibrium factor；ψ referred to regional water resource output factor（it is the ratio of regional water resource average productivity and global water resource average productivity；after the calculation，the Jiangxi Provincial water resource output factor was 2.71）；Q referred to gross amount of water resources（m3）；Pw referred to global average production capacity of water resources （m3/hm2）.About 60%of the water resources in certain country or region are used for maintaining the ecological environment，so in the calculation，ECw was multiplied by the coefficient of 0.4.

Water resource ecological surplus and deficit

Water resource ecological deficit or ecological surplus refers to the difference between water resource ecological footprint and carrying capacity. They can be used to evaluate the sustainable utilization status of regional water resources.

Water resource ecological surplus

When ECw ＞EFw，water resources are in surplus state；when ECw=EFw，water resources are inthe equilibrium state；when ECw＜EFw，water resources are in the deficit state.

Table 2 Grading of water resource load index

Water resource load index

Water resource load index is used to describe the development and utilization prospects of regional water resources.Its physical meaning is the relationship between regional water resource supply and water resource demand by population and gross domestic product（GDP）.Water resource load index reflects the utilization level of regional water resources and difficulty degree of water resources development in the future.Water resource load index is divided into five levels（Table 2），and its calculation formula［10］was as follows:

Results and Analysis

Water resource ecological footprint and carrying capacity per capita in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013

The ecological footprints per capita of agriculture water，industrial water，urban public water，domestic water and ecological and environmental water in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013 were calculated.As shown in Table 3，the ecological footprint per capita of agricultural water in Jiangxi Province was much higher than those of the other four water recourse accounts，which was consistent with crop type and high proportion of agriculture in the economy of Jiangxi Province.During 2009 to 2013，the water resource total ecological footprint per capita in Jiangxi Province ranged from 0.89 to 1.10 hm2，and no significant differences were found among different years.In Jiangxi Province，the water resource total ecological footprint per capita was highest in 2011 and 2013，and it was trended to be increased overall.The water resource carrying capacity per capita was also trended to be increased overall.It reached the peak in 2010（9.13 hm2）. Different-degree ecological surplus was observed in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013.The ecological surplus was highest in 2010.In overall，during 2009 to 2013，the economy in Jiangxi Province developed rapidly，so domestic water consumption and industrial water consumption were increased correspondingly. At the same time，the government paid more attention to the ecological environment.As a result，the total ecological footprint in Jiangxi Province would be increased continuously. The restoration and protection of the ecological environment in Jiangxi Province would be achieved through adjusting industrial structure，reducing agricultural water ecological footprint，and increasing ecological and environmental water ecological footprint.

Table 3 Ecological footprint，ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus per capita in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013 hm2

Water resource load index in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013

In order to further study the utilization conditions of water resources in Jiangxi Province，the water resource load index in Jiangxi Province was calculated.Water resource load index is a comprehensive index of precipitation，population，economic scale and total water resources，and it comprehensively reflects the utilization degree of regional water resources.As shown in Table 4，during 2009 to 2013，the water resource load index in Jiangxi Province did not change greatly.In 2009，2011 and 2013，the water resource load index in Jiangxi Province was all III grade，indicating moderate utilization degree，great development potential and moderately difficult developmentconditions ofwaterresources in Jiangxi Province.In overall，the utilization degree ofwater resources in Jiangxi Province is relatively low，so the waterresources in Jiangxi Province have great development potential.According to statistics，the average development and utilization ratio of water resources in JiangxiProvince during 1999 to 2006 was 14.5%，and in 2002，the development and utilization ratio of water resources in Jiangxi Province was only 12.62%，which was lower than the national average level（23%）.In addition，in 2006，among the 11 cities of Jiangxi Province，the development and utilization ratio of water resources of only Nanchang and Xinyu exceeded 20%，while of the other cities was all lower. Therefore，to further improve the development and utilization efficiency，the water resources，as well as environmental carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province，should be analyzed in depth. In the regions with lower water recourse development and utilization ratio，the utilization efficiency of water should be improved，and the maximum utilization potential of water resources should be fully exploited.

Table 4 Grading of water resource load indexes in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013

Conclusions

In overall，Jiangxi Province is rich in water resources，and the water resources in Jiangxi Province also have higher ecological carrying capacity. During 2009-2013，the ecological surplus differed greatly among different years.The proportion of water resource ecological footprint also differed greatly among differentaccounts.The proportion of agricultural water ecological footprint was highest，and the utilization efficiency of water resources in agriculture was also lower.The changes in water resource ecological footprint among different accounts reflected the changes in industrial structure in Jiangxi Province.The industrial structure in Jiangxi Province should be adjusted according to the distribution characteristics of water resources so as to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources，especially the repeating utilization efficiency of agricultural water，thereby promoting the sustainable development of society and economy in Jiangxi Province.

The waterresource ecological footprint per capita in Jiangxi Province is relatively low.The development and utilization ratio of water resources in Jiangxi Province is not high.Thus，the overall development potential of water resources in Jiangxi Province is great. The water resources in Jiangxi Province mainly come from the precipitation.Water resource carrying capacity is associated with precipitation. In dry year，water resource carrying capacity is reduced，leading to reduced ecological surplus，and further affecting the sustainable utilization of water resources.The construction and utilization of hydraulic engineering should be enhanced，thereby improving the water-holding，water-supply and water-draining capacity，as well as the drought disaster response capacity of Jiangxi Province.

Jiangxi Province is located in the southern humid region of China.It has relatively abundant water resources. However，the water demand is also high，and the benefit of unit water is low.Considering the economic sustainable development and continuously increased population，majorriver systems in Jiangxi Province should be better protected.Otherwise，once the river systems are polluted，the water resource carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province will be greatly affected.Only when water resources are better protected and reasonably and sustainably developed and utilized can they serve the sustainable development of society and economy.

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Responsible editor：Tingting XU

Responsible proofreader：Xiaoyan WU

江西省水资源环境承载力评价研究

叶志平1，2*，孟丽红1（1.赣南师范学院地理与规划学院，江西赣州341000；2.广东省河源市和平县龙湖学校，广东河源 517000）

为定量评价江西省水资源可持续发展状态，以水资源生态足迹的基本原理和计算模型为基础，分析了江西省2009～2013年水资源生态足迹、生态承载力和水资源负载指数的动态变化。结果表明，2009～2013年江西省水资源人均生态足迹相对较低，水资源利用程度较低且整体开发潜力较大，人均水资源生态承载力及人均水资源生态足迹整体上呈现增加的趋势。水资源生态足迹的变化与社会经济发展密切相关，应该充分调整产业结构，合理调度、利用水资源，促进江西省水资源的保护和社会经济可持续发展。

生态足迹；水资源负载指数；生态承载力

江西省教育厅科技项目“江西省水资源生态足迹和生态承载力时空分析”（GJJ14671）；赣南师范学院招标课题“赣江流域水资源生态足迹与生态承载力研究”（14ZB19）。

叶志平（1986-），男，广东河源人，硕士研究生，研究方向：学科地理。*通讯作者，E-mail：yezhiping163@163.com。

2015-10-20

Supported by Science and Technology Project of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education（GJJ14671）；Tender Project of Gannan Normal University（14ZB19）.

*Corresponding author.E-mail:yezhiping163@163.com

Received:October 20，2015 Accepted:November 23，2015

修回日期 2015-11-23