技术进步和结构调整对能源消费回弹效应的估算

李强+魏巍+徐康宁

摘要

我国能源消费面临着满足经济增长和降低能耗的双重压力，提高能源利用效率迫在眉睫。那么，提高能源利用效率能节约能源消费量吗？文章基于我国1992-2011年数据对我国技术进步的回弹效应进行了实证分析，结果表明，技术进步所导致的能源效率提高能节约能源消费量，但能源消费的回弹效应显著存在，我国能源消费的回弹效应介于9%-75%之间。在此基础上，本文对能源效率的回弹效应进行扩展，提出能源效率的回弹效应包括技术进步的回弹效应和结构调整的回弹效应两部分，理由是：根据现有能源效率分解方面的经验研究，能源效率提高可以分解为两种效应，一是技术进步效应；二是结构调整效应。因此，能源效率的回弹效应也可以分解为两种效应，即能源效率的回弹效应是指通过技术进步和结构调整可以提高能源效率，进而节约能源消费量，但技术进步和结构调整也会促进经济的快速增长，从而对能源产生新的需求，部分地抵消了所节约的能源。最后，基于中国1992-2011年数据的测算结果表明，结构调整的回弹效应要远大于技术进步的回弹效应，技术进步所带来的能源效率提高同样能节约能源消费量，能源消费的回弹效应也显著存在，由结构调整所带来的能源效率提高对节约能源贡献不大，不同年份中结构调整的回弹效应呈现出较大波动，绝大部分年份中的结构调整回弹效应处于两种极端情况，即大于100%或为负值。

关键词 能源效率；能源消费；回弹效应；技术进步；结构调整

中图分类号 F062.1

文献标识码 A

文章编号 1002-2104（2014）10-0064-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2014.10.010

能源效率的回弹效应是指技术进步可以提高能源效率，进而节约能源消费量，但技术进步也会促进经济的快速增长，从而对能源产生新的需求，部分地抵消了所节约的能源。因此，能源效率的提高能否节约能源消费量，取决于回弹效应的大小。国内外大量文献对能源效率的回弹效应进行了研究，不同学者的研究结论存在较大差异，绝大多数文献的测算结果在0-100%之间[1-2]，但也有学者的测算结果大于100%，即存在回火效应[3-4]。综合国内外学者的研究可知，现有文献只测算了能源效率回弹效应的一部分，即技术进步的回弹效应，而忽略了结构调整对能源效率的影响，尚未发现对结构调整的回弹效应进行研究的文献。实际上，能源效率提高可以分解为两种效应，一是技术进步效应，二是结构调整效应，与此相对应，能源效率的回弹效应也可分解为技术进步的回弹效应和结构调整的回弹效应。为此，本研究对能源效率的回弹效应进行扩展，并对我国1992-2011年期间技术进步和结构调整的回弹效应进行测算。

1 能源回弹效应测算模型

1.1 模型构建

效应大于100%，即存在回火效应；有10年的技术进步的

回弹效应介于9%-89%之间，有7年的技术进步的回弹效应小于零，即存在过度储存效应。结构调整的回弹效应方面，有9年的技术进步的回弹效应大于100%，即存在回火效应，表明结构调整并减少能源消费量；有9年的技术进步的回弹效应小于零，即存在回火效应，仅有1998年和2011年的回弹效应介于1%-100%之间，也表明结构调整对我国节能减排效果并不明显。

4 结论与讨论

提高能源利用效率能节约能源消费量吗？基于我国1992-2011年数据对能源消费的回弹效应测算结果表明：①由技术进步所导致的能源效率提高确实能节约能源消费量，但能源消费的回弹效应也显著存在，绝大部分年份的技术进步回弹效应介于9%-75%之间，技术进步的回弹效应呈现出较大差异，其中1995、2003、2004和2011年的技术进步回弹效应大于100%；②能源效率的回弹效应进行扩展，提出能源效率的回弹效应包括技术进步的回弹效应和结构调整的回弹效应两部分。结构调整的回弹效应要远大于技术进步的回弹效应，技术进步导致的能源效率提高确实能节约能源消费量，但能源消费的回弹效应也显著存在，结构调整导致的能源效率提高节能效果不大，不同年份结构调整的回弹效应差异较大，绝大部分年份中结构调整的回弹效应处于两种极端情况，大于100%或为负值。

提高能源效率有利于降低我国能源消费量，其中技术进步的节能减排效果最为明显。因此，一方面应加大对能源使用技术的研发投入力度，并建立起我国区域间能源使用技术的信息共享机制，提高能源利用效率；另一方面，由于回弹效应的存在使得提高能源效率对节能减排效果有限，加快页岩气等非常规油气资源和新能源产业的发展显得尤为重要。

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[6]李仁君.中国三次产业的资本存量测算[J].海南大学学报： 人文社会科学版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment

[5]刘伟，张辉.中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步[J].经济研究，2008，（11）： 4-15.[Liu Wei， Zhang Hui. Chinas Economic Growth and Technological Progress of Industrial Structure Change [J]. Economic Research Journal，2008， （11）： 4-15.]

[6]李仁君.中国三次产业的资本存量测算[J].海南大学学报： 人文社会科学版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment

[5]刘伟，张辉.中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步[J].经济研究，2008，（11）： 4-15.[Liu Wei， Zhang Hui. Chinas Economic Growth and Technological Progress of Industrial Structure Change [J]. Economic Research Journal，2008， （11）： 4-15.]

[6]李仁君.中国三次产业的资本存量测算[J].海南大学学报： 人文社会科学版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment