Thanks to Climate Chang

Fall weather is drastically changing thanks to global warming. Fixing it will require us to stabilize emissions.

由于全球变暖，秋天的天气正在经历剧烈的变化。要解决这一问题，我们需要稳定碳排放。

One of the great pleasures of autumn is its colorful aesthetics. The phenomenon in which normally green leaves transition into shades of red， orange， yellow and eventually brown is known officially as “leaf phenology”， which some people eagerly anticipate each year. But like many ways in which climate change is radically altering our weather patterns—from blistering heat waves to sea level-induced floods—autumn itself is changing.

秋天最大的乐趣之一在于其丰富多彩的美感。通常绿叶会逐渐染上红色、橙色和黄色，最终转为棕色，这一现象的正式名称为“叶片物候学”，每年都有人对这一变化翘首以盼。然而，正如气候变化在许多方面彻底改变了我们所处的天气模式那样——从严酷的热浪到海平面上升引发的洪水——秋天本身也在发生变化。

“Climate change and global warming is not inconsistent with snow at all， and in fact you may actually get more snow.”

“气候变化和全球变暖与降雪并不冲突，事实上，降雪量可能会增多。”

According to a study published earlier this year in the journal PLOS One， the season length is growing， meaning that it is taking longer for leaves to change their colors. And this is not the only way in which climate change is messing with the season so many of us love.

根据今年早些时候发表在《科学公共图书馆·综合》期刊上的一项研究，秋天正在变长，这意味着叶片变色所需时间也更久。然而，气候变化给这个备受喜爱的季节造成的搅扰不止这一种。

“It’s trees are holding onto their leaves longer，” explained Dr. Howard Diamond， senior climate scientist at NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory， when speaking to Salon. “I can see that in my own neighborhood， where I can remember 20 years ago the leaves would drop a lot sooner than they do now. That’s more anecdotal， but it is backed up by research that we’re seeing.”

“树叶停留枝头的时间越来越久了。”美国国家海洋和大气管理局空气资源实验室的高级气候科学家霍华德·戴蒙德博士在接受沙龙网站采访时解释说。“我在自己住处附近就看得到这一变化，我记得二十年前那里的树叶落得比现在早得多。虽然那听上去更像是传闻，但我们所看到N99jHgm9ddr8dZ4QKPCL8Q==的研究支撑了这一点。”

Climate change isn’t just causing the leaves to change later. We can also expect later frosts， according to Dr. Michael E. Mann， a professor of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania. Mann told Salon that “means that mosquitos and disease-carrying pests like ticks persist further into autumn， posing a greater health risk to us.”

宾夕法尼亚大学地球与环境科学教授迈克尔·E. 曼博士表示，气候变化不仅会让树叶变色时间更晚，也可能让霜冻来得更迟。曼告诉沙龙网站，那“意味着蚊子和蜱虫等携带疾病的害虫入秋后存活更长时间，给我们带来更大的健康隐患”。

Mann also pointed out that El Niño—the climate phenomenon in which the ocean surface warms in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and thereby alters weather patterns—is going to set a new record for global temperatures every year in which the event happens. This means more extreme heat in the summers， as well as worsened tropical storms and intensified droughts.

曼还指出，厄尔尼诺（即热带地区的中太平洋和东太平洋海面温度升高，从而改变天气模式的气候现象）将来每次发生，都会刷新当年的全球高温记录。这意味着夏天极端高温将更加频繁，热带风暴更加恶劣，干旱更加严重。

As Dr. Kevin E. Trenberth， a distinguished scholar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research， told Salon by email， “This year there is a major El Niño underway and in strong El Niño conditions there is a strong tendency for a southward shifted jet stream across the U.S.： storm track favored further south than usual and wetter through to Florida， but dryer and warmer in the northern tier States.”

美国国家大气研究中心的杰出学者凯文·E. 特伦伯思博士通过电子邮件告诉沙龙网站：“今年一场强劲的厄尔尼诺现象正在酝酿中，在强厄尔尼诺现象影响下，一股向南方移动的高空急流极有可能席卷美国：风暴路径与平日相比将进一步往南，佛罗里达州将变得更加潮湿，但北部各州会变得更加温暖干燥。”

If there is any good news at all， though， we may be able to stave off this development. Citing a recent study in Frontiers in Science， Mann pointed out that if humans limit their carbon dioxide emissions， they can still prevent the worst effects of climate change from pounding them during the autumn months.

如果说还有什么好消息的话，那就是，我们也许可以减缓气候变化的发展。曼引用了《科学前沿》期刊上的一项近期研究结果并指出，人类如果控制二氧化碳排放量，还是能够在秋天的几个月里避免受到气候变化带来的最坏影响的冲击。

“A new study just out today provides further evidence that surface warming will likely stop after carbon emissions reach zero，” Mann told Salon， a point that he echoed in his recent commentary for Live Science. Yet even though some of the more radical aspects of climate change altering autumn can be rolled back， others are going to be here to stay.

曼还告诉沙龙网站，“今天刚发表的一项新研究进一步证明，碳排放量达到零后，地表升温很可能就会停止。”他在最近发表于趣味科学网站上的评论中也阐述了这一点。然而，尽管使秋天发生改变的气候变化带来的一部分极端影响可以避免，但另一部分的影响将持续存在。

For example， as Trenberth noted， “one way to think of climate change effects is that the summer gets longer and the winter shorter. So the autumn is a bit later.” These sorts of changes are baked into our future， because the full effects of the greenhouse gases already emitted have not yet been felt.

举个例子，正如特伦伯思所指出的，“对于气候变化的影响，有一种理解方式是，夏天变得更长，冬天变得更短，因此秋天来得更晚一些。”这类变化将是未来的必然组成部分，因为已排放温室气体带来的影响尚未完全呈现。

“Now clearly that does not apply to the light： the equinox is still at the same time，” Trenberth added， commenting on the fact that the technical definition of autumn—which depends on Earth’s position relative to the Sun—is not going to change. “So some things get out of sync. That can badly affect many critters， such as birds who rely on bugs and food at certain times to feed their young” because even though certain aspects of autumn are going to proceed as they always have， the weather surrounding the season will often be quite different.

秋天的专业定义取决于地球相对于太阳的位置，它不会发生改变。特伦伯思在评论这一事实时补充道：“现在看来，很明显，气候变化并不适用于光照：春分和秋分的时间仍然不变。如此一来，一些事物将不再协调。这将对许多生物造成严重的影响，比如，依靠昆虫和特定时间的食物来哺育后代的鸟类。”原因在于，尽管在某些方面，秋天将一如既往，但期间天气往往会大不相同。

“You’ll have warmer weather also leading to a little bit more humidity in the air， especially on the east eastern part of the country，” Diamond said. “It’s not as dry and crisp in the mornings as you might expect， and there will be warmer weather when you do get rains.”

“你会发现，天气变暖也导致空气湿度增大，这在美国东部尤为明显。”戴蒙德说道，“早晨并不像你期待的那样干燥清爽，并且即使是下雨的时候，天气也会更暖。”

That can translate into heavier precipitation events because warmer air holds more moisture and more water vapor， Diamond explained. “You’re probably going to have more warm days in the autumn than you used to have.”

这种情况可能会转化为更强的降水事件，因为越温暖的空气，容纳的水分和水蒸气越多，戴蒙德解释道：“秋天温暖的天数很可能会比过去多。”

Diamond also emphasized the importance of not blaming every new autumn-related development on climate change. For example， nor’easters—or intense storms that originate off the American northeast—are going to happen regardless of climate change. At the same time， “I think what we might see is more intense nor’easters because of the fact that we have very much warmer ocean temperatures.” Also， while it may seem counterintuitive， climate change also means there might be more snow.

戴蒙德还强调，不应将与秋天有关的一切新现象都归咎于气候变化。比如，无论有没有气候变化，东北风暴（源于美国东北部沿岸的强烈风暴）都会发生。与此同时，“鉴于海温大幅升高这一事实，我认为今后可能会有更多强东北风暴。”以及，虽然这似乎违背直觉，但气候变化确实意味着降雪可能会增多。

“In higher temperatures you actually have more precipitation， so more snow，” Diamond observed. “Same thing with the sea surface temperatures in the ocean. If they’re higher， there’s more water vapor and more energy for the storms. So for instance， a couple years ago in Boston， it was a really large one day blizzard， record setting. And at the same time， the sea surface temperature to where we were high were much elevated just off the coast of Boston. So people may see snow and wonder， ‘What’s the deal with climate change？’ And climate change and global warming is not inconsistent with snow at all—in fact you may actually get more snow.”

戴蒙德表示：“在温度更高的情况下，降水量增加，降雪量也随之增加。海面温度也是一样的道理。海面温度越高，就有越多的水蒸气和能量来形成风暴。举个例子，几年前，在波士顿下了一场持续一天的超大暴风雪，刷新了降雪记录。而同一时刻，波士顿海岸附近的海面温度却比已经算高的海温还要高出许多。所以人们看到雪也许会想，‘气候变化到底是怎么回事？’气候变化和全球变暖与降雪并不冲突，事实上，降雪可能确实会更多了。”