大学学位为何贬值？

文/彼得·克拉克 译/阮沚萱

The concept of inflation applies to other goods besides money.Inflation is related to the Law of Supply and Demand.As the supply of a commodity increases, the value decreases.Conversely, as the commodity becomes more scarce, its value increases.This same concept is also applicable to tangible items such as vintage baseball cards and rare art.These are rare commodities that cannot be authentically replicated and therefore command1command 应得；博得；值得。a high value on the market.On the other hand, mass-produced rookie cards2rookie card 篮球新秀卡，印有篮球新秀的球星卡，通常在球员初登赛场的赛季发售。一名球员往往拥有十几年的职业生涯，因此新秀赛季就会显得尤为珍贵，而新秀卡的意义就是记录一名球员从职业生涯起点出发时的模样。如今，许多已经功成名就的超级球星，他们新秀卡的价格往往十分高昂。and replications of Monet’s work are plentiful.As a result, they yield little value on the market.

通货膨胀的概念也适用于货币之外的其他商品。通货膨胀与供求定理有关——商品供给增加，价格下跌；反之，商品越短缺，价格就升得越高。这一概念也适用于有形物品，譬如老式棒球卡和稀有艺术品。 这类稀有商品都无法完全复制，因此在市场上具有很高的价值。另一方面，量产的篮球新秀卡和莫奈作品的复制品数量众多，因此它们在市场上就没什么价值。

2通货膨胀和与之原理相反的通货紧缩同样适用于无形商品。从就业市场来看，这一点相当明显。需要稀有或非凡技能的工作往往薪水更高。不过，也有不受欢迎的工作由于存在风险或缺乏吸引力，会额外给予补偿性工资。这类工作之所以报酬高是因为缺乏愿意接受相关职位的劳动者，而不是因为劳动者掌握了所需技能。

2Inflation and the opposite principle of deflation can also apply to intangible goods.When looking at the job market,this becomes quite evident.Jobs that require skills that are rare or exceptional tend to pay higher wages.However,there are also compensating differentials3补偿性工资差异，有的就业岗位具有令人不快的特征，厂商为了额外补偿受雇于这类岗位的劳动者所遭受的生理、心理及经济损失而导致的工资差异。具体来说，导致不同就业岗位之间产生补偿性工资差异的原因有不同的工伤及死亡风险、薪资结构中不同的附加福利、不同的社会声誉、不同的工作地点、悬殊的工作环境等。that arise because of the risky or unattractive nature of undesirable jobs.The higher wages are due to a lack of workers willing to accept the position rather than the possession of skills that are in demand.

The signaling function of college degrees

3Over the past couple of decades,credentialing of intangible employment value has become more prevalent.Credentials can range from college degrees to professional certifications.One of the most common forms of credentialing has become a 4-year college degree.This category of human capital4human capital 人力资本，区别于物质资本的另一种形态的资本。通过在教育、培训、健康、移民等方面的投资，人们获得能够带来收入增长的知识、技能、经验和体力等能力。documentation has evolved to take on an alternate function.

大学学位的“信号功能”

3过去几十年来，认证无形的就业价值愈发盛行。证书种类从大学学位证书到职业证书，不一而足。最常见的认证形式之一便是四年制学士学位证书。这类人力资本凭证已经演化出其他功能。

4Outside of a few notable exceptions, a bachelor’s degree serves a signaling function.As George Mason economics professor Bryan Caplan argues, the function of a college degree is primarily to signal to potential employers that a job applicant has desirable characteristics.Earning a college degree is more of a validation process than a skill-building process.Employers desire workers that are not only intelligent but also compliant and punctual.The premise of the signaling model seems to be validated by the fact that many graduates are not using their degrees.In fact, in 2013, only 27 percent of graduates had a job related to their major.

4除了个别特例，学士学位通常具备“信号功能”。乔治·梅森大学经济学教授布赖恩·卡普兰称，大学学位的主要作用是向潜在雇主表明求职者具备理想的特征。获得大学学位更像是一个验证过程，而不是技能培养过程。雇主希望员工不仅聪明，而且顺从、守时。许多毕业生没能用上他们的学位证书，这似乎证实了信号模型的假设。事实上，2013 年仅有27%的毕业生找到了与自己专业相关的工作。

5Since bachelor’s degrees carry a significant signaling function, there have been substantial increases in the number of job seekers possessing a 4-year degree.Retention rates5此处指新生保有率（freshman retention rate），即第一学年结束后，决定留在大学继续学习的学生占比。for 4-year institutions reached an all-time high of 81 percent in 2017.In 1940, 4.2 million Americans were 4-year college graduates.Today, 99.5 million Americans have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher.

5由于学士学位承载着重要的信号功能，拥有四年制学士学位的求职者人数大幅增加。2017 年，四年制本科的新生保有率创历史新高，达到81%。1940 年，有420 万美国人是四年制本科毕业生。如今，9950万美国人获得了学士及以上学位。

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6Today, nearly 40 percent of all Americans hold a 4-year degree.Considering the vast increase in college attendance and completion, it’s fair to question if a college degree has retained its “purchasing power” on the job market.Much of the evidence seems to suggest that it has not.

6当前，有近 40% 的美国人拥有四年制学士学位。考虑到大学入学率和毕业率大幅上升，有理由质疑大学学位是否在就业市场上保有其 “购买力”。似乎有很多证据表明，大学学位的“购买力”已经打折。

What is credential inflation?

7The signaling function of college degrees may have been distorted by the phenomenon known as credential inflation.Credential inflation is nothing more than “… an increase in the education credentials required for a job.”

8Many jobs that previously required no more than a high school diploma are now only accepting applicants with bachelor’s degrees.This shift in credential preferences among employers has now made the 4-year degree the unofficial minimum standard for educational requirements.This fact is embodied in the high rates of underemployment6underemployment 不充分就业，指在法定劳动年龄内，劳动时间少于法定工作时间，且劳动报酬低于当地最低工资标准、高于城市居民最低生活保险标准，而本人愿意从事更多工作的就业状态。among college graduates.Approximately 41 percent of all recent graduates are working jobs that do not require a college degree.It is shocking when you consider that 17 percent of hotel clerks and 23.5 percent of amusement park attendants hold 4-year degrees.None of these jobs have traditionally required a college degree.But due to a competitive job market where most applicants have degrees, many recent graduates have no means of distinguishing themselves from other potential employees.Thus,many recent graduates have no other options but to accept low-paying jobs.

9The value of a college degree has gone down due to the vast increase in the number of workers who possess degrees.This form of debasement mimics the effect of printing more money.The hordes of guidance counselors and parents urging kids to attend college have certainly contributed to the problem.However, public policy has served to amplify this issue.

“证书通胀”是什么？

7所谓的“证书通胀”现象或已扭曲大学学位的信号功能。证书通胀无非是指“某一职位所需的学历证书增加。”

8许多职位以前仅需要高中或高中以下的文凭，现在却只接纳拥有学士学位的求职者。雇主对文凭的偏好发生转变，使得四年制学士学位成为非正式的最低学历要求。大学毕业生不充分就业率高的现象印证了这一事实。约 41% 的应届毕业生正在从事不需要大学学位的工作。想想看，17%的酒店职员和 23.5%的游乐园服务员拥有四年制学士学位，是不是令人咋舌？这些工作原本无一需要大学学位，但由于就业市场竞争激烈，大多数求职者都拥有学位，许多应届毕业生无法从其他潜在员工中脱颖而出。因此，很多应届毕业生别无选择，只得接受低薪工作。

9由于拥有大学学位的劳动者人数大幅增加，大学学位的价值下跌。这种贬值形式能产生与“多印钞票”类似的效果。指导顾问和家长一窝蜂地敦促孩子上大学，这无疑是导致学位贬值的原因之一。不过，公共政策也加剧了这一问题。

10Various kinds of loan programs,government scholarships, and other programs have incentivized more students to pursue college degrees.Policies that make college more accessible—proposals for “free college,” for example—also devalue degrees.More people attending college makes degrees even more common and further depreciated.

11Of course, this is not to say brilliant students with aspirations of a career in STEM7科学（Science）、技术（Technology）、工程（Engineering）、数学（Mathematics）四门学科英文首字母的缩写。fields should avoid college.But for the average student, a college degree may very well be a malinvestment and hinder their future.

12Incurring large amounts of debt to work for minimum wage is not a wise decision.When faced with policies and social pressure that have made college the norm, students should recognize that a college degree isn’t everything.If students focused more on obtaining marketable skills than on credentials, they might find a way to stand out in a job market flooded with degrees.■

10种种贷款项目、政府奖学金和其他项目激励更多的学生去攻读大学学位。让大学更好进的政策，诸如“免费大学”的提议，同样使学位贬值。上大学的人越多，学位就越常见，进而越会贬值。

11当然，这并不是说有志在科学、技术、工程和数学领域一展宏图的优秀学生不应该上大学。但对于普通学生来说，攻读大学学位很可能是一笔不当的投资，会阻碍他们未来的发展。

12做拿着最低工资的工作，却要背负巨额债务，这并非明智之举。在面对使大学“常态化”的政策和社会压力时，学生应该认识到大学学位不是万能的。如果学生多去关注如何获得适应市场的技能，而非只关注学历证书，他们可能会找到从学位证书泛滥的就业市场中脱颖而出的方法。 □