The 2023 Earthquake in Türkiye and Implications for China’s Response to Catastrophe

Peijun Shi · Lianyou Liu · Weihua Fang · Jifu Liu · Jidong Wu · Lu Jiang · Bo Chen ·Gangfeng Zhang · Hao Zheng · Yintong Zhang

Abstract On 6 February 2023, two 7.8 magnitude earthquakes consecutively hit south-central Türkiye, causing great concern from all governments, the United Nations, academia, and all sectors of society.Analyses indicate that there is also a high possibility of strong earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.8 or above occurring in the western region of China in the coming years.China is a country that is highly susceptible to catastrophic disasters such as earthquakes, f loods, and other natural calamities, which can cause signif icant damages to both human life and property, as well as widespread impacts on the society.Currently,China’s capacity for disaster prevention and control is still limited.In order to ef fectively reduce the impact of catastrophic disasters, ensure the safety of people’s lives and property to the greatest extent possible, maintain social stability in high-risk areas, and ensure high-quality and sustainable regional development, it is urgent to improve the seismic resistance level of houses and critical infrastructure in high earthquake risk zones and increase the earthquake-resistant design level of houses in high-risk fault areas with frequent seismic activities; signif icantly enhance the ability to defend against extreme weather and ocean disasters in economically developed areas along the southeastern coast, as well as the level of fortif ication in response to extreme meteorological and hydrological disasters of coastal towns/cities and key infrastructure; vigorously enhance the emergency response capacity and disaster risk prevention level in western and ethnic minority regions; comprehensively improve the defense level of residential areas and major infrastructure in high geological hazard risk zones with f lash f loods,landslides, and mudslides; systematically promote national disaster prevention and mitigation education; and greatly enhance the societal disaster risk reduction ability, including catastrophic insurance.

Keywords China · Disaster impact · Disaster response · Earthquake in Türkiye

1 The 2023 Earthquake in Türkiye and Disruptive Earthquake Risk in China

According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck the Kahramanmaras Province in central-southern Türkiye on 6 February 2023 at 4:28 a.m.local time, with the epicenter located at 38.00°N and 37.15°E and a depth of 20 km, and numerous aftershocks followed.On the same day, another 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck near the northern part of the previous one(38.10°N and 37.11°E) at 1:28 p.m.local time, approximately 96 km away, creating a rare and typical double earthquake sequence.The earthquake sequence has drawn high attention from governments, the United Nations, academia,and other institutions worldwide.This study analyzed the possible impacts of Türkiye’s twin earthquakes on China and the implications for coping with catastrophic disasters.

1.1 Earthquakes in the Tibetan Plateau Seismic Zone

The danger of earthquakes in the Tibetan Plateau seismic zone with the principal part located in China is signif icantly higher than that in the Central Asian seismic belt where the Türkiye earthquakes occurred.The Eurasian seismic belt, one of the most intensely deformed regions with frequent strong earthquakes, is divided into four secondary seismic belts: the Mediterranean seismic belt, the Central Asian seismic belt, the Himalayan seismic belt,and the Indonesian seismic belt (Zhu et al.2022).The recent earthquakes in Türkiye occurred in the Central Asian seismic belt (Fig.1).According to data from the U.S.Geological Survey (USGS 2023), earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.0 or higher in the Central Asian seismic belt mainly occurred in the western segment of the Zagros Mountains and the eastern Iranian plateau since 1900.Meanwhile, the frequency of earthquakes showed a f luctuating increasing trend.During the last 123 years,there were 38 earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.0–6.9,15 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0–7.9 (about once every 5 years), and one earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher (about once every 100 years) in the Central Asian seismic belt.We used the formula lgE=1.5MS+ 11.8 to calculate the seismic energy (Gutenberg and Richter 1955).It is clear that the release of seismic energy showed a periodic increase in pace with the increasing earthquake activities (Figs.2 and 5).

Fig.1 Distribution of earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.0 or higher from 1900–2022 in the Central Asian seismic belt.Data source U.S.Geological Survey (USGS 2023)

Fig.3 Distribution of earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.0 or higher from 1900–2022 in the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone.Data source U.S.Geological Survey (USGS 2023)

Fig.2 Changes in seismic activities in the Central Asian seismic belt.Data source U.S.Geological Survey (USGS 2023)

Fig.4 Changes in seismic activities in the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone Data source U.S.Geological Survey (USGS 2023)

Fig.5 Comparison of seismic energy release and trends in the Central Asian seismic belt and Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone.Data source U.S.Geological Survey (USGS 2023)

The Tibetan Plateau seismic zone is primarily located in the Himalayan seismic belt and its surroundings, and its western part is adjacent to the Central Asian seismic belt (Fig.3).Since 1900, earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.0 or higher in the Tibetan Plateau seismic zone have mainly occurred in the surrounding areas of the Himalayas, Karakoram Mountains, Kunlun Mountains, Tianshan Mountains, Hengduan Mountains, Qilian Mountains, and Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains, with a slightly f luctuating increase in earthquake frequency (see Fig.4).In the last 123 years, this region has experienced 31 earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.0 to 6.9, 21 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 to 7.9, and two earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher (approximately once every 50 years).Among them, the 8.6 magnitude earthquake in Zayü, Tibet in 1950 was the strongest earthquake in the last century,and the release of earthquake energy showed a periodic decrease of 10 years.The Zayü earthquake in 1950, the Damxung earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 in 1951,the Kunlun Mountains earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1 in 2001, and the Wenchuan earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 in 2008 (Yang et al.2011), indicate there was a south-to-north and west-to-east shift of large earthquake activities in the Tibetan Plateau seismic zone.

1.2 Risk of Earthquakes with a Magnitude of 7.8 or Higher in Western China

Analyses of the association between earthquake characteristics of the Central Asian seismic belt and the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone showed that the risk of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.8 or higher is expected to increase in western China in the coming years.

1.2.1 Relationship Between Seismic Activities in the Central Asian Seismic Belt and the Tibetan Plateau Earthquake Zone

The recent earthquakes in Türkiye occurred in the Central Asian seismic belt, which is adjacent to the west of the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone.The annual frequency of earthquakes in the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone is 2.4 times of that in the Central Asian seismic belt (Figs.2 and 4).The annual mean energy release and single earthquake energy release in the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone are 4 times and 1.7 times of those in the Central Asian seismic belt, respectively (Fig.5).The area of the Central Asian seismic belt is about 40% smaller than the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone, thus when comparing the earthquake frequency and seismic energy release of the two seismic belts, we need to consider this dif ference.

Fig.6 Correlations between seismic frequency/magnitude and energy release in the Central Asian and Tibetan Plateau seismic zones.a, b Correlations between earthquake frequency and seismic energy release in the Central Asian seismic belt and the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone in the same year.c, d Correlations between the maximum seismic magnitude and seismic energy release in the Central Asian seismic belt and in the following 1–2 years in the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone.** Indicates signif icant at p < 0.01 level

1.2.2 Prospective Consequences of the Türkiye Earthquakes on China

Earthquake frequency and seismic energy release in the Central Asian seismic belt poorly correlate to those in the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone in the same year (Fig.6 a and b), but earthquake magnitude and seismic energy release in the Central Asian seismic belt signif icantly correlate to those in the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone in the following 1–2 years (Fig.6 c and d).This implies that the impact of the Türkiye earthquakes in the Central Asian seismic belt on the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings in China might not be immediate but delayed.

The Eurasian seismic belt is one of the world’s seismic belts with the strongest seismic activity, the widest range of seismic impacts, and the largest disaster losses (Li and Zhang 1994).Despite that each seismic belt in the Eurasian seismic belt has its own relatively independent plate movements, tectonic activities, and seismic mechanisms, the recent earthquakes in Türkiye may have subsequent ef fects on the adjacent Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone in the next 1–2 years.In addition, the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone had a high release of earthquake energy from 1900 to 1950.After the 8.6 magnitude earthquake in Zayü in 1950, the f luctuating increase of seismic energy had been maintained for more than 70 years.The seismic energy in the Tibetan Plateau earthquake zone gradually dropped to its lowest value of the last century in 2019.However, the seismic energy has kept rising since 2019 (Fig.5), therefore the risk of strong and destructive earthquakes with 7.8 magnitude or above in western China in the next few years needs to be highly concerned.

2 Risk of Major Natural Hazard-Related Disasters Globally and in China

This section discusses the threats to the world and China from great earthquakes, strong tropical cyclones, big f loods,and so on.

2.1 Global Great Earthquakes, Typhoons,and Floods

The threat of great earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or above looms over the entire world.The Eurasian and circum-Pacif ic seismic belts are the two seismic belts with the most intense seismic activity, widest impact range, and largest disaster losses in the world.About 85% of deadly earthquakes in the world occur in the Alpine/Himalayan collision zone, spanning from Europe to Indonesia, while 12% occur in the Pacif ic Rim including the Americas, Japan, and New Zealand (Bilham 2013).Due to the movement of tectonic plates, it is inevitable that major earthquake disasters will occur again in the future in the Alpine/Himalayan collision zone and the circum-Pacif ic seismic belt (Tucker 2004; Deng et al.2014; Bilham 2019; Wesnousky 2020).The 8.0 magnitude Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, the 9.0 magnitude Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the 8.1 magnitude Nepal earthquake in 2015, and the double 7.8 magnitude earthquakes in Türkiye in 2023 all ref lect the active period of global geological activity (Dal Zilio et al.2021).

Coastal regions are suf fering from the threats of strong tropical cyclones (TCs).The increasing trend of TC in terms of quantity and proportion (Kossin et al.2020; Bloemendaal et al.2022), their migration towards the poles and land (Kossin et al.2014; Kossin et al.2016), longer durations on terrene, and higher precipitation intensity (Liu and Wang 2020;Guzman and Jiang 2021) due to climate change has altered the impact of TCs on coastal areas (Kossin et al.2016).In 2019, Typhoon Lekima was stranded on land in China for 44 hours.When looking at the typhoon frequency and intensity, it is clear that the frequency and proportion of strong typhoons have increased signif icantly (Elsner et al.2008), with the greatest increase in the North Pacif ic, Indian Ocean, and Southwest Pacif ic, and the smallest increase in the North Atlantic (Webster et al.2005).Meanwhile, tropical cyclones are becoming stronger and occurring at higher latitudes (Studholme et al.2022).Since 1982, the maximum intensity point of cyclones has also been moving closer to land.As the paths of cyclones shift towards the poles and westward, the distance between the maximum intensity point of cyclones and land decreases by about 30 km every decade(Wang and Toumi 2021).This change could increase the danger of tropical cyclones to coastal populations.

The increased extreme precipitation will lead to higher f lood risks.In a warming climate, global population exposed to f loods is increasing, with the most signif icant increases in Asia and Africa.Given current protection levels and vulnerability, under the moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5-SSP2), the annual global f lood-related deaths in the midcentury is projected to be 1.9 times higher than that of the historical period (1986–2005) (Zhang et al.2021).The annual GDP loss caused by f loods globally may also increase by 4.8 times compared to the historical period (Zhang, Li et al.2022; Zhang, Liao et al.2022).

2.2 Great Earthquakes, Floods, Tropical Cyclones,Landslides, and Other Hazards in China

There is an increased possibility of great earthquake disasters occurring in China.Previous studies show that in addition to the increased probability of strong and destructive earthquakes in the western region of China in the coming years (Xu et al.2017; Li et al.2021), seismic activities in many other parts of China may also enter an active phase(Han et al.2022).In the coming years, there is a possibility of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or above occurring in the northern Hainan fault zone of the north-south seismic belt and southern Tianshan, northern Tianshan, and eastern central Altai seismic belts (Chai and Chen 2017).There is also a possibility of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.0 or above occurring in the junction of Shanxi, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, the surrounding areas of the Bohai Sea, and the northern margin of the Ordos block (Cao et al.2015; Zhu 2017).

The frequency and intensity of meteorological and hydrological hazards may increase under climate change.Simulation studies show that by around 2050, f lood intensity in China is expected to increase by 33–66% and the f looded area is expected to increase by 50% compared to the baseline(historical) period (1986–2005) (Arnell and Gosling 2016).By around 2030, the proportion of f looded areas with high risk is expected to increase by 2.1–8.0% compared to the baseline period (Xu et al.2014), and meanwhile, the f looded area on the coastal zone is expected to increase by 500 km 2 ,with the length of China’s coastline f looded increasing by 50% compared to the historical period (Yin et al.2020).By around 2050, area inundated by torrential f lood in some regions is expected to increase by 17.6–22% compared to the historical period (Zhang et al.2019).The number of lowintensity tropical cyclones in China is expected to decrease,while the number of high-intensity tropical cyclones is expected to increase signif icantly, with a northward shift in their trajectory and an earlier f irst landing month (Liu et al.2020).By around 2050, due to climate f luctuations,the intensity of Pacif ic tropical cyclones af fecting China is expected to increase by about 20% compared to the historical period (Chand et al.2017).

The susceptibility to geological disasters is expected to signif icantly increase, due to the ef fects of global climate change, including the rise of extreme precipitation, thawing of permafrost in some regions, and an increase in loose surface materials.Specif ically, during 2031 and 2060, the probability of landslides occurring in China will be notably higher compared to the historical period of 1986–2005.In the moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios, the number of landslides may increase by 19.9% and 33.2% respectively, due to the changes in extreme precipitation and air temperature (Lin et al.2020).

3 Losses Caused by Major Natural Hazard-Related Disasters Globally and in China

The frequent occurrence of major natural hazard-related disasters in the future may bring huge losses to China and globally.By analyzing the impacts of recent catastrophic disasters worldwide, comparing losses due to catastrophic events in China to the rest of the world, and accounting the contribution of catastrophic events to the total natural hazard-related disaster losses of China, this section calls for attention to reduce the risk of huge losses due to major disasters in China.

3.1 Catastrophic Losses from Major Natural Hazard-Related Disasters

Human casualties and property losses of major disasters around the world are increasing.In 2004, the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami swept across several countries, killing about 250,000 people; in 2011, the earthquake in Japan caused more than USD 100 billion in property damage;and in 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused USD 125 billion in property damage and social disruption in the United States.Currently, 65% of the world’s big cities are at risk of seismic disaster risk, and earthquakes with more than 100,000 deaths will continue to increase as the number and size of big cities increase (Bilham 2009).

Indirect economic losses caused by major global disasters such as earthquakes will become greater and greater.At present, the global industrial chain and trade chain network is becoming increasingly complex, and the disaster chain triggered by major earthquake disasters will cause the world industrial chain to shake.The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake-geological hazard-f lash f lood disaster chain caused serious damage to the Dongfang Steam Turbine Plant, resulting in a loss of output value of billions of yuan;the 2011 East Japan earthquake-tsunami-nuclear leakage accident af fected the global industrial chain, and the Great East Japan Earthquake and Thailand flood caused the global loss of USD 385.61 billion, which is 2.3 times the direct loss of the two catastrophes, with Malaysia, China,Indonesia, South Korea, and the United States suf fering the largest economic losses (Zhang, Li et al.2022; Zhang,Liao et al.2022).In 2023, the damage to important energy infrastructure caused by the double strong earthquakes in Türkiye may have an impact on the international oil and gas energy pattern and the layout of oil and gas pipelines(Alam and Ali 2023).

3.2 China’s Disaster-Related Losses

China’s disaster-related losses rank among the most substantial globally.In terms of the risk of deaths caused by various major natural hazard-related disasters, China ranks the 8th in the world and is a high-risk country, with eastern China being one of the worst regions in the world, surpassing some countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia.From 1991 to 2021, China accounted for f ive of the top 50 natural hazardrelated disasters that caused the most deaths in the world,and the total number of deaths in the f ive major disasters was 99,139, accounting for 7.74% of the total number of deaths in the top 50 disasters in the world (ADREM et al.2022).Combining the proportion of direct economic losses in GDP caused by various major natural hazard-related disasters, China ranks the 11th in the world and is among the high-risk countries.With regard to the f ive major categories of natural hazard-related disasters that caused severe property losses, China ranks among the top three globally.Between 1991 and 2021, 10 of the world’s top 50 natural hazard-related disasters causing the most direct economic losses are in China, resulting in total direct economic losses of USD 2.12875 trillion (comparable prices in 2021), which accounts for 15.7% of the total direct economic losses of the top 50 globally (Shi et al.2014; Shi and Kasperson 2015;Shi et al.2016; Shi 2022).Catastrophic disasters posed great threats and caused huge losses to people’s lives and property in China—the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake killed a total of 69,220 people and caused 17,923 missing, with a direct economic loss of 845.14 billion yuan (Zeng and Wang 2013),and the July 20 heavy rain in Zhengzhou City, Henan Province in 2020 caused a direct economic loss of 120.06 billion yuan (Ministry of Emergency Management of the People’s Republic of China 2022).

4 Challenges in China’s Natural Hazard-Related Disaster Prevention and Control

This section summarizes the achievements of disaster reduction of China and discusses the challenges that China faces to improve its capacity to reduce risk from major disasters.

4.1 China’s Ability of Emergency Response and Post-Disaster Relief to Natural Hazard-Related Disasters

China’s ability to deal with natural hazard-related disasters has improved signif icantly.Since 1949, China has attached great importance to the prevention and control of natural hazards and disasters, one major disaster risk after another has been ef fectively addressed, and the country created many miracles of emergency rescue and disaster relief work and emergency response.China’s disaster prevention and emergency management system has fully demonstrated in practice the advantages of the Chinese socialist system in concentrating its ef forts on major events, and its ability to deal with natural hazards and disasters has been signif icantly improved, with the decreasing overall rate of casualties and economic losses from natural hazard-related disasters.According to the preliminary results of the First National Natural Disaster Census,1Unpublished data.the period from 2011 to 2020 has seen the lowest number of natural hazard-related disasters in 43 years (1978–2020).The national average annual death number decreased from 6.75 thousand in 1978–1990 to 1.25 thousand in 2011–2020, and the national average annual death rate per million people decreased from 6.47 in 1978–1990 to 0.91 in 2011–2020.The proportion of annual direct economic losses in GDP decreased from 4.07% in 1978–1990 to 0.52% in 2011–2020.With the gradual implementation of China’s nine major projects for the prevention and control of natural hazard-related disasters, China’s ability to respond to such disasters will be more signif icantly improved.

4.2 The Ability to Resist Major Natural Hazard-Related Disasters

There has been no signif icant improvement in the ability to resist major natural hazard-related disasters.Despite the steady decline in the overall loss rate of natural hazardrelated disasters, China’s capability to resist major natural hazards and disasters has not improved signif icantly.The situation of “high risk in cities and no defenses in rural areas”has not been fundamentally changed.The loss caused by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the 2008 snow and frozen rain disaster in southern China were equivalent to roughly 3.4% of the preceding year’s national GDP, higher than the damage caused by the Tangshan Earthquake in 1976, which was 0.1% of the national GDP of the previous year (National Development and Reform Commission 2008; Xinhua News Agency 2008; China Earthquake Administration 2009).Against the backdrop of the increasing risk of catastrophes such as global earthquakes and global climate change, China faces a severe situation of major natural hazard-related disasters, and signif icant challenges in modernizing its disaster prevention and control capabilities.

The substandard or low fortif ication level of housing construction and infrastructure is a decisive factor for the formation of catastrophe.In 2010, the magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Haiti caused the death of about 220,000 people, while the magnitude 9.1 earthquake in Chile in the same year only caused 500 deaths and a relatively slight impact on the national economy (USAID ( 2010a), USAID ( 2010b)).This comparison shows that the improvement of seismic fortif ication of buildings in Chile has signif icantly reduced the loss of a high-magnitude earthquake.The World Bank estimated that the 2023 Türkiye earthquakes have caused more than USD 34 billion in direct property damage, with an estimated 1.25 million people temporarily homeless due to damaged houses or complete building collapse, and the total cost of reconstruction and economic recovery may reach USD 100 billion, which is closely related to the substandard seismic fortif ication of houses (GFDRR 2023).

Nearly 18 billion m2of old houses in China’s cities have not yet been seismically reinforced, involving a population of about 300 million people, while nearly 19 billion m 2 of rural houses have not yet met the seismic fortif ication requirements, involving a population of about 500 million people, a signif icant portion of which live in high earthquake intensity and earthquake-prone areas (Meng 2019).We can learn many lessons from the Türkiye earthquake disaster, but the most important one might be the heavy casualties by building collapses, so it is urgent to improve the seismic resistance level of houses in rural and urban China.

Second, there is a high vulnerability of infrastructure to major disasters.For instance, China’s oil and gas pipelines have a total length of more than 166,000 km.Some of these pipelines were inadequately seismically defended in their early construction, and others straddle seismic fault zones, which pose a signif icant risk (National Energy Administration 2023).China has built 98,000 reservoirs and dams of various types, with a total storage capacity of more than 930 billion m 3.Large dams and reservoirs are mainly distributed in seismically active areas such as the southwest and northwest of China (CPC Central Committee and State Council 2023).There are 179 cities and 285 counties with hydropower stations, accounting for 25.4%of China’s cities and 16.7% of the country’s counties respectively (China Society for Hydropower Engineering 2021).Under the threat of major earthquakes, typhoons,f loods, and other catastrophes, the lack of safety and resilience of China’s infrastructure has become increasingly prominent, and there is an urgent need to strengthen the infrastructure in the high-risk area of seismically active fault zones and improve the fortif ication level to resist earthquakes, typhoons, and f loods.

Third, the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning capabilities of major disasters are still def icient.While the capabilities of forecasting and early warning of meteorological disasters such as TCs have been signif icantly improved, those for geological hazards, earthquakes,f loods, and other hazards are still dif ficult to meet the needs of emergency management and risk prevention.Existing disaster monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems lack ref ined monitoring, prediction, early warning, and risk assessment capabilities for important elements at risk, such as population gathering areas, major engineering facilities, and key areas with major risk of hazards.Disaster warnings are mostly focused on earthquake magnitude, wind speed, wave height, water level,and so on, and lack risk assessment for the consequences of disasters such as house collapse and dike breach, and provide less operable prevention and control suggestions than desired, making it dif ficult to carry out actual emergency response work such as evacuation and risk avoidance based on these warnings.

5 Countermeasures and Recommendations for Ensuring China’s Safe, High-Quality,and Sustainable Development

In order to ensure China’s safe, high-quality, and sustainable development, the f irst priority is to improve the seismic fortif ication level of buildings in high-risk areas of seismic active fault zones as soon as possible.At present,there is an urgent need to put forward targeted reinforcement measures such as adding ring beams, constructional columns, and pulling steel bars for buildings of dif ferent structural types in the high-risk areas of seismic active fault zones.The reinforcement of houses in high-risk areas will be incorporated into urban renewal and “new urban construction” planning to promote the overall improvement of seismic resilience and drive local economic and social development.

The second is to signif icantly improve the fortif ication level of coastal cities and towns and important infrastructure to deal with extreme meteorological and hydrological disasters.In view of important coastal towns/cities and key projects, accurate monitoring, prediction, and early warning of meteorological and marine disasters, as well as the construction of urban infrastructure and coastal protection engineering work should be strengthened to enhance the ability to withstand super typhoons, storm surges, tsunamis, and other giant disasters, and ensure high-quality and sustainable economic and social development in coastal areas.

The third is to vigorously enhance the disaster risk prevention capacity of the western and border areas.Infrastructure such as those related to energy, transportation,and information in western China is becoming increasingly more important in the national economy.The latest research showed that there is a possibility of earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or above in western China (Xu et al.2017; Li et al.2021).Geological disasters in northwest and southwest China will also maintain a high incidence,with a relatively high probability of catastrophes in the western region.When extreme disasters strike the western region, high priority should be given to the possible superimposed ef fects of disasters and political, economic, and social insecurity, and we should quickly adjust the level of emergency response according to the development of the disaster, upgrade the response if necessary, and make targeted preparation for the delivery of emergency relief resources and emergency response forces.

The fourth is to comprehensively raise the fortif ication level of concentrated residential areas and major infrastructure in high-risk areas of hazards such as f lash f loods and debris f lows.It is necessary to speed up the detailed survey and dynamic investigation and evaluation of the potential geological hazard points, identify those that have not been discovered, and improve the grading and dif ferentiated governance system of geological hazards.For the identif ied major geological hazard points, 24-hour automatic monitoring should be established, universal intelligent monitoring equipment should be popularized, and early warning of small-scale and short-duration extreme disasters at the city and county levels should be strengthened to ensure that the frontline posts and threatened people are immediately informed so that disaster prevention and risk avoidance actions can be ef fectively organized.

The f ifth is to systematically promote education for all on disaster prevention and mitigation.The majority of the rescue operations during the golden rescue period after major disasters rely on the public to save themselves and each other.Therefore, it is particularly important to improve the public’s safety knowledge and skills of selfhelp and mutual rescue in response to disasters.China has established the “5.12” Disaster Prevention and Reduction Day, but it is still necessary to enhance the knowledge on disaster prevention and mitigation for the general public, and promote knowledge of disasters and their coping skills in the classroom, incorporating it into the important content of basic education.Safety skills are the most basic skills, which should be strengthened in communities,organizations, and work units.Grassroots organizations and work units should regularly organize disaster prevention and mitigation drills, and build a number of safety education experience museums to make people feel the disasters and acquire skills with an aim to form the soft power of safety culture with Chinese characteristics.

The sixth is to greatly enhance the societal disaster mitigation capacity including catastrophe insurance.China should improve the comprehensive prevention capability of the whole society to resist natural hazard-related disasters and shift away from the sole reliance on the government for disaster relief.In the face of the threat of catastrophe, we should concentrate the ef forts of the government,industry, and society, and coordinate legal, administrative,scientif ic, technological, and economic means to facilitate disaster risk identif ication, control, and reduction.Compulsory insurance for high-risk regions should be fully implemented to ef fectively meet catastrophe insurance needs.The insurance coverage of housing for urban residents should also be increased.Mandatory insurance policy for enterprises and institutions in high-risk areas of natural hazards and disasters should be implemented and catastrophe insurance should be taken as an important basis for f inancing and credit.The country should adopt policies to guide and encourage the accelerated research and implementation of catastrophe insurances for typhoons and f loods, and select key areas for catastrophe insurance pilot programs.

AcknowledgmentsThis work is founded by the Sixth Task of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP), “Integrated Disaster Risk Prevention” (Grant No.2019QZKK0906).We would like to acknowledge the following individuals from various institutions who have contributed to the writing and discussion of this article: Shanping Song and Wen Li from the National Institute of Education Policy and Social Governance, Beijing Normal University; Chunyang He, Wei Xu, Ying Wang, and Ming Wang from the Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University; Guofeng Su from the Institute for National Governance and Global Governance, Tsinghua University;Weicheng Fan, Hongyong Yuan, Bing Huang, Wenzhong Mi, Zhang Wei, Dianzhu Liu, Shuai Liu, and Kongzheng Liang from the School of Public Security, Tsinghua University; and Tao Chen, Jianguo Chen,and Rui Zhou from the Hefei Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University.

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source,provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made.The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material.If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.To view a copy of this licence, visit http:// creat iveco mmons.org/ licen ses/ by/4.0/.