世界经济主要指标

May 2021〖1〗BimonthlyABSTRACTS

（1）Attach Great Importance to the Problem of Low and Middle Income Groups in Rural Areas

Ma Xiaohe

The rural revitalization requires great attention to the problem of low and middle income rural residents. There are 3 ways to measure low and middle income earners， and the third method is suitable for China. According to the exclusion method， regardless of whether it is calculated by purchasing power parity or the real exchange rate， the proportion of the group in Chinas rural areas is relatively high. The process of moving towards middle income is slow， facing problems such as the slowdown in farmers income growth， the decline in agricultural yields， the impact of industrial restructuring and transformation on farmers nonagricultural employment， the slowdown of urbanization， and the insufficient supply of basic systems. It is recommended to implement a tenyear income doubling plan for low and middle income groups in rural areas during the “14th FiveYear Plan” period， increase support for rural infrastructure construction and public service provision， implement special employment projects for the group in rural areas， and implement “Complete cancellation” “Comprehensive relaxation” of the policy for the settlement of agricultural migrants in cities， and speed up the improvement of basic institutional arrangements.

（2）Prospective Assessment for the Risks of Financial Frictions Faced by Large Banks

Huang Zhiling

If the United States cannot achieve its own political or strategic goals from the trade field， or the fundamental goal of the United States is to suppress Chinas development， etc.， it will be inevitable that trade frictions will escalate to the financial field. In extreme situations in the United States， the following blockade or attack measures may be taken against domestic commercial banks： First， the financial market is banned， trading channels are blocked， and sanctioned banks are prohibited from entering the Americas financial market or even the major global financial markets; The second is to cut off the liquidation system， blocking the sanctioned banks U.S. dollar and even other foreign currency clearing channels; The third is IT technology blockade or attack， the sanctioned banks are prohibited from using the IT hardware and software services of American companies， and technical attacks are adopted in extreme scenarios. As the domestic commercial banks rely on the United States for operations， large stateowned commercial banks should prepare emergency plans in advance for various extreme scenarios that may occur. The first is to expand trading channels; The second is to attach great importance to the risk of restricted international clearing; Third， in response to the US IT technology blockade， emergency plans can also be prepared for several possible sanctions situations; Third， in response to the US IT technology blockade， emergency plans can also be prepared for several possible sanctions situations.

（3）Health Industry Development and Demandside Reform During the “PostPandemic and New Economy” Era

Jia Kang

From the beginning of 2020， the COVID19 has severely impacted human social life， so far， there are obvious uncertainties about its changes， but it can be considered that China has taken the lead in opening the postPandemic era. On the one hand， we should be fully ideologically prepared to fight the “protracted war” against the Pandemic， and on the other hand， we must conduct targeted investigation and analysis of the prominent problems caused by the Pandemic and the specific major social needs in the postPandemic era， then discuss the corresponding strategy to increase the effective supply. This article mainly discusses and analyzes the development of the health industry in the context of the interaction between the “postPandemic era” and the “New economy” and related “Demandside Reform”， and proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions.

（4）Research on New Digital Foreign Trade Based on Fulllink CrossBorder Ecommerce

——The Case Study of Alibaba International Station

Wang Xiaohong， Xia Youren， Mei Guanqun， Liang Peng， Guo Xia， Li Rui

Since the “Thirteenth FiveYear Plan” period， Chinas digital technology has expedited the process of digital trade and the growth of new formats and models， new digital foreign trade represented by crossborder ecommerce is becoming the most dynamic part of foreign trade format innovation and a new engine for foreign trade growth. This article sorts out the relevant concepts and main features of the new digital foreign trade， studies and judges the development trend of the new digital foreign trade in the world and China， and discusses the practice of Chinas new digital foreign trade using Alibaba International Station as a case. The study believes that in the postepidemic era， the position of new digital foreign trade in international trade will be further highlighted， which will profoundly affect the future global trade development pattern， and it will also provide important support for China to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with focused on domestic flows while facilitating positive interplay between domestic and international flows. Therefore， it is proposed to take new digital foreign trade as an important channel for a smooth double dual， promote the sustainable development of digital new foreign trade with institutional opening， strengthen crossborder ecommerce cooperation， and support the innovative development of digital new foreign trade platforms.

（5）The World Economy is in Deep Recession and Recovery Faces Potential Risks

——Review of the World Economic Situation in 2020 and Outlook for 2021

Zhang Guohong， Li Jingjing， Wang Tingxi， Hao Yue， Hu Chenpei

In 2020， the COVID19 will continue to spread around the world， causing a broad and deep negative impact on the world economy， the global economy has suffered the most serious economic recession since the “Great Depression” in the 1930s.In terms of major economic sectors， the worlds industrial production has experienced negative growth for the first time since the financial crisis， the volume of trade in goods has fallen， and the international financial market has experienced fluctuation. In terms of major economies， the economies of the United States， the Eurozone， and Japan have experienced a sharp decline， and the economic growth of emerging economies has fallen sharply. With the global implementation of the COVID19 vaccination plan， the shortterm impact of the epidemic on the economy has gradually subsided， and global economic activities are expected to fully resume. According to the latest OECD forecast， the world economy is expected to return to a positive growth of 5-6% in 2021 on the basis of a 3-4% contraction in 2020. However， negative factors such as rapid virus mutation， unfair vaccine distribution， and rising global debt risks have increased the vulnerability of economic recovery.

（6）Challenges and Responses of the World Factory： Comparative Research and Enlightenment Based on the British and American Manufacturing Industries

Ren Jiqiu

Since the Industrial Revolution， the United Kingdom and the United States have successively become the largest manufacturing countries in the world. This brought pressures and challenges such as expanding trade deficit， industrial relocation， deindustrialization， and technological spillovers. The British manufacturing industry showed a trend of stagnation in transformation and upgrading after reaching the top of the world， and it was surpassed by the United States in half a century; The U.S. manufacturing industry is developing towards a high degree of industrialization. Since reaching the top in the world， it still controls the global manufacturing industry chain through hightech industries. The reason why the US manufacturing industry can maintain its competitiveness when it compares with the UK， because the inclusive growth of the United States has created a huge domestic market and continues to promote the liberalization of reciprocal trade. The US government continues to increase investment in technological innovation， adopts strong industrial policies to protect domestic industries and limit the development of potential competitors. At present， the scale of Chinas manufacturing industry has surpassed that of the United States and has become a veritable world factory， it must learn from the experience and lessons of the United Kingdom and the United States， and rationally treat the phenomenon of industrial relocation and deindustrialization in Chinas manufacturing industry， and be wary of the premature and rapid development of these phenomena， which will evolve into major risks and bring challenges to the construction of Chinas manufacturing power.

（7） The Impact of U.S. Tax Reduction on Foreign Direct Investment and the Enlightenment to China

Liu Xuchang

In recent years， major economies represented by the United States have adjusted their tax policies， creating tax competition pressure on China. United States tax policy adjustments are representative and important in terms of tax reform content and global impact. The study found that the tax reduction policy of the United States since 1980 has promoted foreign direct investment （FDI） in the form of equity investment other than the reinvestment of earnings， but there is a lagging phenomenon. FDI in the form of income reinvestment and related debt has a rapid impact， but in different directions， tax reduction can stimulate an increase in income reinvestment， but FDI inflows in the form of linked debt will decrease. At the same time， tax cuts have the most obvious positive impact on manufacturing FDI. Based on the analysis of the effects of tax reduction in the United States， it can provide reference for the optimization of my countrys tax system， first is to steadily promote structural tax reduction; and second is to optimize domestic investment and operating environments; the third is to proactively respond to the challenges of the international tax system.

（8）Research on Energy Issues in the Arctic Region

Wei Yu， Chen Wenhui

Global warming has gradually made Arctic energy exploitation a reality. Although the Arctic region contains huge energy resources， considering the cost， environment， energy prices， and geopolitics， fullscale exploitation of oil and gas is not easy， prospects for renewable energy exploitation and energy transition in the Arctic region are promising. The United States and Russia intend to become the leaders in the exploitation of Arctic energy， and there are continuous new measures in Arctic energy exploitation. Chinas energy cooperation and exploitation in the Arctic is gradually getting better， but as a latecomer， advantages and disadvantages， opportunities and challenges coexist. In the future， the geopolitics of the Arctic region will intension， the process of Chinas Arctic energy exploitation depends on the process of cooperation with the United States and Russia and cooperation with other countries. Arctic energy exploitation also provides opportunities for Chinas companies to explore new technologies and open up new renewable energy markets in exploring Arctic energy.

（9）Research on HighQuality Development of ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor

Yan Shaojun

As the flagship project and model project of “the Belt and Road”， the construction of the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor is directly related to the overall highquality development of “the Belt and Road”. The construction of the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor has formed a large number of major infrastructure projects and production capacity cooperation and other visible results. While boosting Pakistans economic development， it has provided a good example for the advancement of “the Belt and Road” construction and has gathered more consensus. In particular， in the face of various challenges brought about by the COVID19， the construction of the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor has continued to advance. As the areas of cooperation between China and Pakistan continue to expand， the content has been continuously enriched， and the construction of economic corridors has entered a new step of substantial and expanded highquality development， but some new challenges have also emerged. As the international and regional situations continue to evolve， it need to deal with them cautiously， continue to firmly promote the construction of economic corridors with Pakistan， deeply understand and accurately grasp the unique strategic value of ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor construction， and better layout， Plan and plot to resolve possible risks and challenges， and build the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor into a demonstration project for the joint construction of “the Belt and Road” highquality development.

Editor：Zhao Ze《全球化》雜志征稿启事