AI的未来究竟是什么？——读《人工智能革命：历史、当下与未来》

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不久前，一场有关智能和未来的盛会在巴渝大地举行。资深律师和重庆造机器人的PK，能自动避让行人或障碍物的汽车，可以智慧照明和智能发电的“智慧能源小镇”……场馆内外，一个个神奇得令人眼花缭乱。

前面说的这些，都可以用一个词来概括：人工智能。

Not long ago, a grand event about intelligence and the future was held in Chongqing. Senior lawyers are PK with the Robots made in Chongqing, such as cars that can automatically avoid pedestrians or obstacles, "smart energy towns" that can smartly lighting and intelligently generate electricity ... inside and outside the venue, there are one after another dazzling scenes.

All of the above mentioned can be summed up in one phrase: artificial intelligence.

人工智能，英文名称Artificial Intelligence，英文缩写AI。关于AI的定义是什么，现实世界里众说纷纭。AI的未来又会是什么，各种说辞更是五花八门。不过归纳一下，大约逃不脱两大类：助推器，或者掘墓人。

助推器者，AI是人类突破自我、迈向更高层次的推手，是我们在解放自我的不断尝试中给自己炼制的一粒灵丹妙药，是人类打通任督二脉的那股气，脱胎换骨的那种神，凤凰涅槃的那把火。借由AI，我们可以实现人类千万年来梦寐以求的那种自由。

掘墓人者，顾名思义，AI是人类走向灭亡的灰暗之路，是先给予我们希望最后让我们绝望的恶魔，是我们饮鸩止渴的那口药。我们制造出的这个人类最大的惊喜和骄傲，也最终将被其埋葬。

这不是我说的，是一本叫《人工智能革命：历史、当下与未来》的书说的。作者叫王天一，北邮的一名博士。王博士说，人工智能是从哪里来的呢？

1956年8月，在美国新罕布什尔州汉诺佛小镇的达特茅斯学院，一群日后震惊世界的学者组了一个群。他们在讨论“用机器来模仿人类学习以及其他方面的智能”这个看似有些不食人间烟火的问题时，提出一个概念——Artificial Intelligence。

这是人工智能和人类的第一次亲密接触。

那人工智能最早是干嘛的呢？使用计算机程序代替人类进行自动推理来证明数学定理。

在相当“漫长”的一段时间里，AI做的就是这个：快速超高速的计算机帮助我们从冗长重复的计算中解放出来。今天，人工智能已经在医疗保健、语音识别、教育等领域飞速发展并产生了不可估计的影响，自动驾驶和无人机的出现，更是正在改变全球的物流体系。根据埃森哲的研究报告估计，到2035年，人工智能可以使许多发达国家的年度经济增长翻倍。

“人工智能”was called Artificial Intelligence in English, abbreviated to AI. What is the definition of AI? Opinions vary in the real world. And what is the future of AI, the opinions are even more varied.However, in summary, it can't escape two major categories: boosters, or gravediggers.

The reasons for deeming it as booster are AI is a pusher for human beings to break through ourselves and move to a higher level. It is a panacea for us to refine ourselves in the constant attempt to emancipate ourselves. It is the Qi (power) of human beings to break through the governor and conception vessels, the spirit to thoroughly remould ourselves, as well as the fire of nirvana of phoenixes. With AI, we can realize the freedom that mankind has dreamed of for thousands of years.

The reasons for deeming it as gravedigger are,just as its name implies, AI is the dark road to the perish of mankind. It is the demon that gives us hope and finally despairs. It is the medicine we drink and quench our thirst. The greatest surprise and pride that we have created will eventually bury ourselves.

This is not what I said, and it was said in a book calledArtificial Intelligence Revolution: History, Present and Future,which was wrote by Wang Tianyi, a doctor from Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications. Dr. Wang said, where did artificial intelligence come from?

In August 1956, at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire of United States, a group of scholars that shocked the world afterwards formed a group. When they talked about "using machines to imitate human learning and other aspects of intelligence", a seemingly otherworldly issue, the concept of "Artificial Intelligence" was put forward.

This is the first intimate contact between artificial intelligence and humans.

What was artificial intelligence used for at the very begging? It was used to apply computer programs to perform automatic reasoning on behalf of humans to prove mathematical theorems.

In a rather "long" period of time, AI did this:the fast and ultraspeed computers helped us to free ourselves from tedious and repetitive calculations.Today, artificial intelligence has developed rapidly in the fields of health care, speech recognition, education, etc., and has made inestimable difference. The emergence of automatic driving and UAVs is changing the global logistics system. According to Accenture's research report, it is estimated that by 2035,artificial intelligence can double the annual economic growth of many developed countries.

可人工智能身上毕竟还有“人工”二字。凡是人类创造的东西，都逃不脱人类的哲学系统。AI也一样。

人类哲学的一大精华就是事分阴阳，物极必反。这对AI同样适用。“像任何变革技术一样，人工智能带来了一些风险，并且从工作和经济到安全和监管问题的几个方面提出了复杂的政策挑战。人工智能系统也可以以惊人的方式表现，我们越来越依赖人工智能来提供决策和操作设备，这无疑增加了预测和控制复杂技术将如何行为的挑战。”

王博士这段话说得很学究，翻译成大白话，其实就是“AI会取代人类吗”？

20多年前，计算机“深蓝”击败国际象棋大师卡斯帕罗夫，靠的是无穷尽的计算。两年前，阿尔法狗战胜围棋世界冠军李世石，一年前的阿尔法狗升级版“大师（Master）”横扫柯洁等围棋大师，背后的武器已经是可以通过人工神经网络和深度学习快速自我升级的“想”。当年面对阿尔法狗的胜利，人类沮丧的面孔还历历在目。

After all, there is a word of "artificial" in artificial intelligence. And everything created by human can't escape the philosophical system of human beings. AI is no exception.

One of the great essences of human philosophy is that things are divided into yin and yang, and they will develop in the opposite direction when become extreme. The same is true for AI. "Like any revolutionary technology, artificial intelligence brings some risks and puts forward complex policy challenges in terms of work, economy to safety and regulatory issues. Artificial intelligence systems can also manifest in amazing ways, and we increasingly rely on artificial intelligence to provide decisionmaking and operational equipment, which undoubtedly adds the challenge of predicting and controlling how complex technologies will behave. "

Dr. Wang’s words are academic, and if translated into lucid ones, in fact, it shall be “Will AI replace humans?”

More than 20 years ago, the computer "deep blue" defeated chess master Kasparov. What it relied on was indefinite calculations. Two years ago,the AlphaGo defeated the world chess champion Lee Sedol. A year ago, the AlfaGo "Master", the upgraded version of AlphaGo won the masters of Go and other chess masters including Ke Jie in a sweep. The weapon behind it has already been able to "thought"through artificial neural networks and deep learning,and quick self-upgradation. In the face of the victory of the AlphaGo, the frustration on people's face is still vivid.

AI还有什么可以阻挡呢？

就如工业革命初期，手工工人砸烂织布机那样，人们对AI的警惕和恐惧再次高涨。越来越多的人开始担心这个人类精心呵护养育成长的宝贝在不远的将来会把我们埋葬进历史的尘土中。前不久，埃隆·马斯克，这位Space X和特斯拉的创始人、现实版“钢铁侠”就和众多各界大腕一起发表联合声明，要求联合国以国际法的形式，禁止对基于人工智能的致命性自主武器系统的开发。这个联合声明的发起者中，还有斯蒂芬·霍金。

基于生物的本能，人对自己不可控制的东西有两大反应——避让或者消灭（同化也是消灭的一种形式）。如今，人工智能已经避无可避——你能想象没有手机支付的日子吗？——于是我们可以选择的路似乎只剩下了后者。可看看好莱坞电影里那些上蹿下跳、上天入地的机器人，如果这就是人工智能的未来，那么我们口中的消灭，似乎充满黑色幽默。

于是，现实世界里，不少人都在说，AI将是人类的掘墓人。

不过王博士似乎并没有站在这一阵营。他在书中用了很大的篇幅来告诉我们，AI要想战胜人类，人工智能要想超越乃至取代人类智能，不仅在当下，而且在可预见的未来，都还只是一个梦。

支持王博士这一论点的，就是他和许多人工智能研究者、思考人类命运的哲学家都相信的那句话，“人工智能已经在几乎所有需要思考的领域超过了人类，但是在那些人类和其他动物不需要思考就能完成的事情上，还差得很远。”

对这一事实有力的说明就是验证码的应用：几乎所有的网站都要求你在注册时辨认并输入一串扭曲的字符，其目的在于证明服务器另一端的你是人类而非机器，这个连识字的小朋友都能完成的任务，迄今为止却没有任何计算机算法能够做到。

What else can block AI?

Just as in the early stage of the industrial revolution, manual workers smashed the looms, and people's vigilance and fear of AI arise again. More and more people began to worry that the treasure that human being cares meticulously will bury us in the dust of history in the near future. Not long ago,Elon Musk, the founder of Space X and Tesla, and the real version of "Iron Man", issued a joint statement with many celebrities, demanding that the United Nations shall take the form of international law, forbid the artificial intelligence based on development of a deadly autonomous weapon system.Among the initiators of this joint statement, there is Stephen Hawking.

Based on the instinct of biology, people have two major reactions to things that they cannot control - avoiding or destroying (assimilation is also a form of extinction). Nowadays, artificial intelligence has been irresistable. Can you imagine the days when there is no mobile payment? - So the road we can choose seems to have only remained the latter. Look at the robots jumping up and down in Hollywood movies, and if this is the future of artificial intelligence, then the destruction in our mouth seems to be full of black humor.

Therefore, in the real world, many people are talking about that AI will be a human gravedigger.

However, Dr. Wang does not seem to be standing in this camp. He uses a lot of words in the book to tell us that if AI wants to defeat human beings,artificial intelligence wants to transcend and even replaces human intelligence, not only in the present,but also in the foreseeable future, it is still a dream.

What supports the argument of Dr. Wang is that he and many AI researchers and philosophers who think about human destiny believe that "Artificial Intelligence has surpassed humans in almost all areas that needs considering, but in those things that humans and other animals can finish without thinking, it is still far behind. "

A powerful explanation for this fact is the application of identifying code: Almost all websites require you to recognize and enter a string of distorted characters when registering, the purpose of which is to prove that at the other side of the server,you are the human beings rather than the machine.The task that even literate children can do, so far, no computer algorithms can make it.

其实说到底，目前对AI的恐惧是我们出于生命繁衍目的而潜生的本能。如果我们高于“本能”去想一想，人类智能和人工智能都还有很大的发展空间，除非发生突变，还谈不上谁灭了谁。目前，两者更是处于相互促进的蜜月期。

回望地球的发展，总是每隔一段时间，就会产生一个意想不到的家伙站上食物链的顶端。从一开始的蛋白质到后来的蓝藻，从三叶虫到恐龙，从狮子老虎到人类，可以说，每一次的新“霸主”，都是其前任想不到的。

不过，生命的经验显示，历次的“霸主”更迭，都是建立在碳基——构成上述这些“霸主”生命的基础都是碳原子——的基础上，而以电脑为代表的人工智能的基础是“硅基”。从碳基到硅基，这种根本性的颠覆会不会发生，何时发生，我无法回答。

可不管怎样，人类已经到了必须再次奋进的时刻。曾有报道称，今后只有在脑力和体力上都不断学习，丰富和强化自己的人才能生存下来。

你信吗？

别问AI，问问你的内心。

In fact, in the end, the current fear towards AI is our instinct for the purpose of life reproduction. If we think above the "instinct", there is still huge space for human intelligence and artificial intelligence. Unless there is a mutation, we can't talk about who killed each. At present, the both sides are in mutual promotion of the honeymoon period.

In retrospecting the development of the Earth,there is always an unexpected guy standing on top of the food chain every once in a while. From the beginning of the protein to the later cyanobacteria, from the trilobite to the dinosaur, from the lion, tiger to the human, it can be said that every new "overlord"is unexpected for his predecessor.

However, the experience of life exhibits that the previous changes of "overlord" are based on the carbon radical- above "overlord" lives are based on carbon atoms - and the basis of artificial intelligence represented by computers can be "silicon base". From the carbon base to the silicon base, whether this fundamental subversion will happen, and when it will happen, I cannot answer.

In any case, mankind has reached a moment that it is necessary to forge ahead again. It has been reported that in the future, only those who are constantly learning in terms of mental and physical strength and enrich and strengthen themselves can survive.

Do you believe it?

Do not ask AI, ask your inner heart.