一个不小心，科技就成了“隐形杀手”

Musk. Hawking. Gates. The tech visionaries have redoubled their warnings about how we could destroy ourselves with technology. But theyre not talking about deliberately pushing buttons to trigger annihilation1）—Kennedy and Khrushchev could have done that back in 622）. They mean accidentally killing ourselves with something that we invent for our own benefit， that later acquires a mind of its own and a shirty3） attitude.

But theres no need to wait for the next big existential threat. Were already designing a whole new world of ways to accidentally off ourselves， and no one seems worried about it.

As biochemists concoct4） new life-extending medications， calls to Poison Control after swallowing the wrong pills or the wrong number of the right pills have recently doubled. We put a smartphone in every hand， and now more than 1，000 distraction-related crashes happen on our roads every day （also steadily rising）. Kids and pets succumb to heatstroke5） inside cars that are more environmentally sealed than ever—were on track to set a new record for hot car deaths in 2017. Falling off of ladders？ Even those numbers are climbing， and if youre wondering how that could possibly be related to technology， well， read on.

Its a little embarrassing to have to admit that accidental deaths are increasing in a world that our forebears made safer for hundreds of years. Our grandparents saw the invention of the automobile， the blender， the bulldozer， and the radial arm saw6）—and they made them all safer. Is what were inventing today really more dangerous than that stuff？ We may not have to worry about sentient A.I. any time soon， but our innovations are quietly outpacing our ability to figure out how to not get wiped out7） by them.

We rely on instincts—our common sense—to tell us whats dangerous and whats safe. Before technology came along， hazards were mostly self-explanatory. Bears， snakes， sharp sticks， cliffs—its hard to get any of this stuff wrong. And our instincts became exquisitely8） tuned to them across millennia. But the hazards we face today can be more subtle， harder to recognize， and even counter-intuitive.

We instinctively take a step back when we see something large， but technology is turning our fear of size on its head9）. Technology progresses by packing more and more power into smaller and smaller packages. One errant wave of a laser pointer and you could bring down an airliner. The number of people who visit emergency rooms following physical interactions with television sets is rising. Its not hard to see why. In the old days， TVs weighed a ton， and they sat in the corner， mostly unbothered. Now TVs are light and portable. They invite us to pick them up， sit them on stuff， or hang them on the wall. And theyre shaped like giant guillotine10） blades. Put the TV in a phone and its more dangerous still. The lighter the TV， the less we fear it， and the higher the body count.endprint

Invisible hazards lurk in the logic and code used to implement our technology. We place blind trust in complex systems that reveal little about how they work. Our medication prescriptions pass through computer systems accessed by professionals who majored in something other than computer science. Patient safety advocates loudly remind us that we are potential victims of human and machine error and that we need to think and ask questions before we swallow pills. But not many people are heeding11） their advice， and medication errors run rampant.

More insidious12） still， we create technology that assumes we have superhuman cognitive abilities， and consumers seem willing to play along. Put a phone， a latte， and a steering wheel in front of us doing 80 mph， and were proud multitaskers. Sure， other people on phones are dangerous， but you can smoothly switch your attention and notice when anything scary pops up， right？ A psychologist in a gorilla suit13） debunked14） that idea some years ago， but we pound our chests in defiance. We imagine ourselves able to accurately assess risks in complex situations after watching a news story about a 15-pound flying sausage crashing through the roof of someones house. We even think were good at seeing oncoming trains while wearing earbuds.

The hazards of yesteryear15） gave us immediate feedback when we screwed up. When we misjudged a bear， the bear instantly let us know. But technology can place the consequences of our missteps at a distance. Delayed reactions， complex chain reactions， hidden reactions—these are all part of how technology works. But adapted to a world of instant feedback， we cruise through the day on autopilot， seldom stopping to consider what could go wrong later down the road. Worse still， technology is even hacking our feedback system. We get a blast of dopamine16） when we check our phone behind the wheel. Edith Harbaugh， whose company， Launch Darkly， specializes in the controlled release of new technology into the wild， pointed out that were creating a dangerously lopsided17） system of actions and rewards： “Were not given snow cones every time we do something safe.”

Technology is even reshaping our safety culture. My grandfather， a craftsman， taught me how to use tools. If I used a ladder wrong， I was quickly corrected. But then technology moved more than half of all grandparents into office jobs. Today people are firing up tools again in record numbers because DIY is in fact cool and arguably good for your soul. But were now getting hurt more while doing it.endprint

Few stop to realize how much we have come to rely on the work of concerned， dedicated consumer product designers and the lawyers who incessantly sue them. But today were inventing stuff faster than we can design safety features. A town in Germany just installed sidewalk traffic lights to alert phone-immersed pedestrians. But what happens when wearables and VR kits come along and were looking up and through a device rather than down at it？

Even the government stepped in on our behalf to create safety standards. But our technology may now be even outpacing our ability to establish new standards. Theres a scene in Anchorman 218） where Will Ferrell flips on the cruise control19） and leaves the drivers seat of his motorhome. When Paul Rudd points out that cruise control only handles the speed， not the steering， chaos ensues. But that confusion isnt just a Hollywood comedy routine. Kelly Funkhouser at the University of Utah recently inventoried20） the names that car manufacturers are giving to speed control， lane-keeping， and blind-spot monitoring functions. She found that similar names are being given to different combinations of these functions across manufacturers. Hop in the wrong rental car， push a button， whip out your phone， and boom … youre Anchorman.

So if youre really worried about summoning the demon， relax. Its already too late. The age of life- and limb-threatening technology is upon us. But our ancestral tendencies may be preventing us from changing our ways or even seeing why we should. In the midst of Silicon Valley， where some of the smartest people live and work， I spotted one driver doing a video call on one phone while texting on another phone. Meanwhile， the numbers keep rising and accidents are now the fourth leading cause of death in the U.S. （For the record， bear-related fatalities remain relatively constant.）

Theres no magic Silicon Valley gadget that will fix this problem. Instead， we need to reconsider the very way we think about being careful—to learn the nuances of a more complex world that we must now navigate and to learn the limits of what our creative， analytical， sometimes fallible21） minds can and cant get away with. The modern world is breaking everything we know about staying safe. If we harbor any hope of squaring off22） against the rise of the machines， were going to need to learn to survive the things we have today.

馬斯克、霍金、盖茨——这些富有远见的技术领袖已加大力度警告我们技术会怎样摧毁人类自己。但是他们讨论的并不是有人要故意按下按钮引发人类毁灭——早在1962年，肯尼迪和赫鲁晓夫原本就可以这么做了。马斯克他们的意思是，我们为了自身利益发明了一些东西，这些东西后来有了自己的思维和坏脾气，一不留神就会要了我们的命。endprint

不过大可不必坐等下一个巨大的生存威胁。我们已经正在设计意外灭掉自己的各种全新方法，而且似乎没人为此担忧。

生物化学家们调配出了延年益寿的新型药物，但最近中毒控制中心接到的因服错药物或服错剂量的报警电话却翻了一番。我们每人手拿一部智能手机，而如今每天道路上有1000多起事故与分心有关（该数字还在稳步上升）。孩子们和宠物死于车内中暑，因为车子密封得越来越好。2017年因车内暑热死亡的案例正在创下新的纪录。从梯子上跌落？甚至连这一数字也在攀升。你如果还在疑惑这怎么可能跟科技扯上关系，那就继续往下读。

不得不承认，虽然几百年来我们的祖先让世界变得更加安全，可如今意外死亡的人数正在上升，这有点令人尴尬。我们的祖辈见证了汽车、搅拌机、推土机和转向锯的发明——而且把它们做得更安全了。我们今天发明的真比这些东西更危险吗？我们或许一时半会儿还不必担心有知觉的人工智能，但是我们的创新正在不知不觉中超越我们揣摩如何不被它们干掉的能力。

我们凭直觉，即我们的常识，感知何谓危险、何谓安全。在科学技术出现之前，危险基本上是不言自明的。熊、蛇、锋利的枝条、悬崖峭壁——我们很难把诸如此类的东西搞错。而且经历了几千年，人们的直觉已经能敏锐地感知这些危险。可如今我们所面临的危险可能更隐蔽、更不易察觉，甚至是反直觉的。

我们看到庞然大物时会出于本能后退一步，但是科技却正在把我们对物体大小的恐惧颠倒过来。科技通过把越来越多的功能放入越来越小的物品中实现进步。随意挥动一下激光笔，你就可以使一架大型客机坠落。与电视机进行过身体接触后去看急诊的人数也在增多。原因不难看出。以前电视机沉得要命，还摆在角落里，我们基本不去动它。而现在，电视机很轻便，让我们不由想将其拿起，放在其他东西上，或者挂在墙上。电视机的形状也像是巨大的断头台刀片。电视机的功能放进手机里，这就更危险了。电视越轻，我们对它的恐惧感就越弱，死亡人数也就越多。

看不见的危险就潜藏在实现科技的逻辑和代码中。我们对复杂的系统盲目信任，却对其如何运行一无所知。我们的药物处方经由计算机系统传输，而访问这些计算机系统的是其他专业人员，而不是计算机科学专业的人。倡导病患安全的人士大声提醒我们，我们是人类失误和机器故障的潜在受害者，因此在吞下药片之前我们需要想一想，问一问。但是没有多少人听从他们的建议，开错药的现象也愈演愈烈。

更隐蔽的危险是，我们创造的科技假定我們拥有超人的认知能力，而且消费者似乎愿意一直依照这样行事。面前放上一部手机、一杯拿铁，手握方向盘，以每小时80英里的速度奔驰着，我们是自豪的一心多用能手。当然，别人用手机打电话是危险的，而你则能自如转换注意力，及时发现任何突发的惊险状况，对不对？几年前，一位身穿黑猩猩服装的心理学家批判了这一想法，可我们却捶击胸口，表示轻蔑。我们在看了一包15磅重的香肠从飞机上掉落砸穿某人屋顶的新闻后，依然幻想自己能在复杂的情形下精准评估风险。我们甚至认为自己戴着耳机时也擅长看到迎面而来的火车。

以前我们如果搞砸了，危险会给出即时反馈。当我们对熊做出错误的判断，熊会立刻让我们知道。然而科技使我们过失所造成的后果没有即刻显现。延迟反应、复杂的连锁反应、潜在反应——这些才是科技运作的部分。但是由于已经适应了迅速反馈的世界，我们几乎不会在使用自动驾驶仪巡航一天的中间停下来思考之后可能会出什么问题。更糟的是，科技甚至在非法入侵我们的反馈系统。开车看手机时，我们瞬间感觉多巴胺飙升。伊迪丝.哈博的公司Launch Darkly专门研究对新科技面向大众的发布加以控制。她指出我们正在创造一种不平衡的行为和奖励系统，非常危险：“我们并不是每次安全行事都能得到冰淇淋甜筒。”

科技甚至在重塑我们的安全文化。我爷爷是个手艺人，他教会我如何使用工具。以前我如果使用梯子不当，会立刻被纠正。但是后来，科技使一多半祖父母辈的人转而做办公室工作。如今，重新使用工具的人数创下了新的纪录，因为自己动手其实很酷，同时可以说对你的内心有益处。但是现在我们在使用工具时却更容易受伤了。

很少有人停下来体会我们对热心敬业的消费产品设计师和不停诉讼他们的律师的工作依赖程度之深。然而今天，我们发明东西的速度比我们设计安全特征的速度要快。不久前德国的一个小镇在人行道上安装了一种交通信号灯，用于提醒埋头看手机的行人。但是等可穿戴设备和虚拟现实装备出现后怎么办？届时，我们会仰着头通过设备看，而不是低头看。

甚至连政府都代表我们介入去制定安全标准。可如今我们的科技发展速度甚至可能超过了我们制定新标准的速度。在电影《王牌播音员2：传奇继续》中有这样一个场景：威尔.法瑞尔打开了房车的定速巡航器，然后离开驾驶员座椅。当保罗.拉德指出定速巡航器只能控制速度而非方向时，混乱接踵而至。而这种混乱可不只是好莱坞喜剧中的日常场景。美国犹他大学的凯利.芬克豪泽最近列了一份清单，把汽车制造商给速度控制器、车道保持系统、盲点监控功能起的名字都列了出来。她发现各个生产厂家对于这些功能的不同组合给出了相似的名字。上错租来的车、按下按钮、匆匆掏出手机，然后“砰”的一声……你就成了王牌播音员。

所以倘若你真担心召唤到恶魔，请放松。已经为时已晚了。因为危及生命和肢体的科技时代已经来临了。但是我们从先辈那里遗传下来的那些脾性可能会妨碍我们改变行事方法，甚至让我们看不明白为什么要改变。在硅谷——一些非常聪明的人在那里居住和工作——我看到过一个驾驶员一边用一部手机打视频电话，一边用另一部手机发短信。与此同时，死亡人数持续上升，而且因此导致的交通事故是目前美国排名第四的死亡主因。（据记载，和熊相关的意外死亡人数则保持相对稳定。）

没有哪个神奇的硅谷小玩意儿会解决这个问题。相反，对于怎样才算小心谨慎，我们需要重新考虑——去了解我们如今需要行进其中的一个更复杂世界的细微差别，去认识我们那有创意的、善于分析的、时不时犯错的头脑能否侥幸逃脱的极限。现代世界正在打破我们有关如何才能保持安全的知识。倘若我们还心存希望，以为可以做好准备，抵御机器的崛起，那就需要学会幸存于现有的这些东西。endprint