“蓝色经济”：菲律宾经济发展的“重头戏”

□ 文/斯蒂芬妮·图玛波斯

“蓝色经济”：菲律宾经济发展的“重头戏”

□ 文/斯蒂芬妮·图玛波斯

菲律宾国家统计局2014年发布的贫困报告显示，菲律宾的渔民是全国九大基础行业中收入最低的人群。

该报告还指出，菲律宾渔民的贫困率高达39.2%，渔民们靠着平均每天178比索（约合24.5元人民币）的收入来养家糊口，每天吃的食物也少得可怜。

菲律宾的水产资源和海洋资源丰富，科学界人士做了大量的研究工作，但对于菲律宾政府来说，想要打造一个既推动经济发展又让渔民受惠的“捕鱼社区”，任重而道远。

据菲律宾马尼拉雅典耀大学管理学院院长罗纳德·门多萨（Ronald Mendoza）博士介绍，据估计，菲律宾的海洋生态系统本可以为其国民经济创造0.97～1.5万亿美元（约合6～10万亿人民币）的年产值，而这还只是保守估计。

既然菲律宾的海洋生态系统的发展潜力如此巨大，那么问题来了：菲律宾政府该如何改善渔民们的生活水平，推动经济和环境的可持续发展呢？

蓝色经济

金枪鱼行业是菲律宾的重点海洋产业之一。2003年, 菲律宾成为世界第四大金枪鱼、类金枪鱼生产国。可是，菲律宾渔民的收入还满足不了他们的生活需求。

自2003年以来，菲律宾金枪鱼行业渐渐沦为“夕阳产业”。由于金枪鱼的捕捞量不断下滑，菲律宾从事金枪鱼行业的人也越来越少。

“在菲律宾，你会发现，金枪鱼等行业的产值高达数十亿比索，可是许多相关从业人员却仍属于贫困人群。”门多萨说。门多萨倡导发展“蓝色经济”。“要实现金枪鱼行业的均衡发展，我们不能忽视目前的现状。”在门多萨看来，“蓝色经济”是关于“绿色经济”的一种新概念，与海洋发展密切相关。

门多萨说：“渔业资源是一种特殊的资源。实现渔业资源的可持续管理才是我们发展 ‘蓝色经济’的真正目的， 而不只是从中得到收益。”

菲律宾是世界第二大岛屿国家，其海岸线长度居世界第五位。菲律宾是海洋生物多样性的中心地带，覆盖了“珊瑚礁三角区”的70%水域，有400多种珊瑚物种和2200多个品种的鱼类生活在这一区域。

联合国粮食及农业组织2014年发布的报告显示，菲律宾已经是世界第十大渔业发达国家，但菲律宾的“蓝色经济”却未见起色。

“蓝色经济”发展的“拦路虎”

门多萨说：“目前，菲律宾的海洋经济发展相当缓慢。”海洋经济行业仅占菲律宾GDP增长目标的3%左右，总体就业率也才略高于4.35%。他认为，造成海洋经济发展缓慢主要有两方面的原因。

一是菲律宾政府对海洋经济的投入力度不够。他建议，菲律宾科学家们在与政客交流时，不能只讲科学和数据，还要运用好经济学的相关知识。“要告诉政客们，只要我们对海洋经济进行投资，就能创造大量的就业岗位。”

二是菲律宾政府尚未采取积极的措施来推动研究成果向发展规划和产业政策转化。门多萨在接受菲律宾《商业镜报》的采访时表示，尽管菲律宾的海洋技术先进，但很难把它们转化成为政策和行动，这是制约菲律宾海洋经济发展的另一个主要原因。

门多萨说：“我们懂得不少，也做了不少研究，甚至有些国家看到我们的研究成果之后还向我们取经， 最终找到了适合他们自身发展的途径。”

“打造海洋经济产业，离不开我们所取得的研究成果。只要我们能够把这些研究成果转化成为商业价值，同时帮助国家提高商业发展水平、完善产业政策，那么我们就能够补齐短板。”门多萨补充道。

门多萨极力主张：菲律宾科学家们要在如何把更多的研究成果转化成为国家政策、商业策略上多下功夫。

菲律宾：未来东南亚“蓝色经济”的领头羊？

通过采用先进的海洋技术，有些东南亚国家实现了海洋产业的可持续发展。“（相比之下）我们的海洋资源利用率并不高。”门多萨说。“我们的邻国一直对其所属海域和海洋资源进行重点保护，而且做得很好。”

在接受《商业镜报》采访的过程中，为了强调自己的观点，门多萨向记者展示了两张照片：第一张照片拍的是一位正在搬运金枪鱼的菲律宾小伙子，他的肩上扛着一条重达95公斤的金枪鱼，可实际上他的收入少得可怜；第二张照片拍的则是新加坡的螃蟹养殖场，通过采用垂直水产养殖模式，该养殖场的螃蟹每公斤售价高达35美元 （约合237.8元人民币）。

凡是以海洋技术支撑自身发展优势的国家， 都赚了个盆满钵满。无人机、垂直水产养殖等技术均有助于菲律宾实现海洋经济的可持续发展。

门多萨建议，菲律宾应该把更多精力用在减少捕鱼量上，并通过研究给海洋中的鱼类留出充足的繁殖和成长时间。“只要我们学会运用海洋技术，就能够提高工作效率、更好地实现海洋资源的可持续利用。”门多萨说。

门多萨表示，鉴于海洋技术方面的优势，菲律宾有望成为东南亚“蓝色经济”发展的“领头羊”。

“珊瑚礁三角区70%的水域分布在菲律宾，因此我们既不缺空间，也不缺资源。这应该成为菲律宾国家发展规划的重点方向。”

谈到创新意识时，门多萨强调，“我们做的还远远不够。”“从更大程度上来说，创新意识不强影响着我们在发展‘蓝色经济’过程中的整体合作。对此，我们要制定明确的发展规划——不仅仅是6年，而应该是50年。”

谈到加强整体合作时， 门多萨表示， “一旦我们错失良机，我们就会落伍。”

门多萨指出，菲律宾在“蓝色经济”方面的发展潜力巨大，菲律宾的民众要清楚自己需要在哪些方面做出努力。

·许志亮 编译

·来源：菲律宾《商业镜报》

Bagan, Myanmar

Businesses in Myanmar generally welcome the Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI)investment boost for the country’s infrastructure development. Some urged Myanmar to be more proactive in navigating its involvement in the scheme. Many emphasised the importance of transparency,public engagement and adhering to international practices. But some have also expressed reservation and skepticism against China’s ambitious scheme.

Last month, the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation attracted the largest number of foreign dignitaries to the Chinese capital since the 2008 Olympic Games. Launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 as the Belt and Road, the scheme involves China underwriting billion-dollar investments, mainly in infrastructure, in countries along the old Silk Road and new routes, creating an extensive trade network by linking Asia, Europe and Africa. The fi nancial commitment illustrates the ambition:China is spending roughly US$150 billion a year in the 68 countries which have signed on to the project. The China Development Bank alone has earmarked US$ 890 billion for some 900 projects.

The Myanmar Timesinterviewed Jonathan Woetzel, McKinsey senior partner and McKinsey Global Institute director, as well as Bernard Chan,president of Asia Financial Holdings and grandson of Chin Sophonpanich, on how the BRI will play out in Myanmar and the region.

Political analysts and commentators have argued that China is ready to ensure a politically stable environment for its southwestern region, which is a core part of the BRI.

The Myanmar Timesasked businesses from various countries and sectors for their views of the BRI.

Good news for infrastructure but Myanmar should be more proactive

Nick Powell, managing partner of Delta Capital Myanmar and director of Simon Murray & Company (SMC), a pan-Asian investment company, highlighted that projects should be commercially viable and look into precedence in other parts of Asia where those infrastructure projects succeeded.

“China’s BRI is a good opportunity for Myanmar and its infrastructure challenges. China is a leader in fi nancing and building infrastructure across the spectrum.The best way is to make sure these projects stand on purely commercial basis, and that the operators and fi nanciers will be paid back over the agreed term and the assets transferred to Myanmar. There are plenty examples of where it has worked, such as in Asia, ”he said.

Infrastructure is a recurring theme highlighted by many businesspersons,including Khin Maung Win, CEO of Myanmar Shwe Pyi Tractors, who said that Myanmar should be proactive in de fi ning its role in the scheme. He also stressed that public engagement for the projects and transparency were crucial.

“The BRI is complementary to Myanmar’s strategic national interests specifically in trade, energy needs and closing infrastructure gap. Myanmar stands to gain greatly from this initiative and should take the lead in defining its role and purpose in the BRI. Early public engagement is critical as from past experience, commercial gains from such cooperation, albeit smaller scale,were rarely transparent,” he said.

Tomoaki Yabe, managing director of Daizen Myanmar, said that the BRI represented a boost in investments for the country’s infrastructure development.More notably, he also highlighted how, by building on the experience of Thilawa SEZ, BRI-related investments and projects can genuinely benefit the country and its private sector.

Tomoaki Yabe said, “Better infrastructure is vital for a robust logistics sector.Myanmar needs more investments to get the hardware ready. We have worked with Chinese companies and more collaboration, encouraged by the BRI,is definitely good news. Only with the technologies, sufficient investment and a sound framework which aligns with the international standard can Myanmar realise its geographical potential as the regional hub.”

APTOPIX Myanmar Pagoda Festival in Yangon, Myanmar

Thilawa Special Economic Zone is a strong example illustrating how foreign direct investments, foreign technologies and local manpower can create employment opportunities and deliver significant economic growth. If Kyaukpyu and other BRI-led projects can build on the lessons of Thilawa SEZ and offer opportunities inclusive of local and international businesses, Myanmar will certainly bene fi t from the scheme.

Similarly, William Greenlee, managing director of DFDL’s Myanmar of fi ce and also American Chamber of Commerce Myanmar’s legal committee chair, told The Myanmar Times that the financing resulting from the scheme, as long as it was commercially sound and responsible,should be embraced with open arms.

“The BRI is a great opportunity for Myanmar. At this nascent stage of infrastructure development, I would think all financing assistance would be welcome. Organisations like Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank [AIIB]and China Development Bank will be able to provide inexpensive financing to large and expensive projects. This is a huge benefit as, of course, financing such projects is the fi rst big hurdle.And like such fi nancing from other countries,as long as the relevant projects are commercially viable and environmentally and socially responsible, fi nancing from China under this initiative should be welcomed with open arms,” he said.

Others echoed the need for Myanmar to take an active part of the collaboration,instead of being reactionary. Ken Tun, chief executive officer of Parami Energy, said the country should realise its strategic importance in both land and maritime aspect of the BRI and be quick to act.

“Myanmar signed five agreements during the Beijing summit including the Belt and Road framework on cooperation and the issue of border trade. Myanmar plays a strategic role in both the land and maritime part of the BRI,” he said.

According to Ken Tun, it is important that Myanmar should push for proactive policies for BRI collaboration,particularly when other countries have already geared up to bene fi t from being part of the BRI.

Aye Thiha, head of Thiha Group who is also chair of government affairs committee at the American Chamber,said the BRI would unlock Myanmar’s geographical advantage.

“I would very much welcome the BRI as it would unlock the full potential of Myanmar’s ideal geographic location between the economic powerhouses,China and India. Once clearly defined with a specific timeline, the Initiative will also fill up the much needed infrastructure gap and provide Myanmar better connectivity with the rest of the world. In my humble opinion, the risks of such an initiative are overshadowed by the economic bene fi ts,” he said.

Foreign chambers weigh in

When asked about whether the BRI is a valuable opportunity for Myanmar to fill the infrastructure gap, Paul Wilson,president of American Chamber of Commerce Myanmar and managing director of US-owned investment company Four Rivers, said, “As a country with significant development needs, we think it reasonable for Myanmar to explore multiple options of investment and partnerships.”

In terms of the reaction of American businesses in the country, Mr. Wilson was keen to raise the issue of business ethics and labour standards.

The US business community in Myanmar is committed to supporting inclusive economic growth and responsible investment. US companies are proud to bring the highest standards of business ethics and labour standards to emerging markets.

“Our expectation is that these high standards raise the bar for other international businesses and investors,which we believe is positive for the Myanmar government and people,” he said.

Katsuji Nakagawa, chair of Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Myanmar and country head of Sumitomo Corporation Group in Myanmar,conceded that Myanmar had to depend on China for the economy. Japanese businesses will be observing how the dynamics change and will also take into account other factors, such as US policy toward China.

“Under the BRI, Myanmar will rely on China for their economic growth by China’s development assistance.Japanese businesses will continue to carefully observe how China and Myanmar relationship would be strengthened. In addition, we, Japan,think it is necessary to closely watch the future direction and movement of the BRI, including the ramification caused by the possible shift of the US policy toward China and we will need to plot our business strategy properly,” he said.

In contrast, Peter Beynon, chair of British Chamber of Commerce Myanmar, sounded more upbeat and less circumspect, highlighting the necessity for Myanmar to carve out its part in the BRI.

“My thoughts are generally positive as long as Myanmar is able to retain value within its economy.” He said, in the short term, this will mean its ability to negotiate a significant portion of an involvement in the construction of the BRI. In the medium to long term,there will be increased trade volumes,investment and business potential for the country. This should be signi fi cant.

“There is a concern at the impact on communities who will be moved and livelihoods altered, but this is inevitable and people resist change. I am positive,”he said.

· Source:The Myanmar Times

What Do Myanmar's Local, International Businesses Make of the Belt and Road?

By Thompson Chau, Su Phyo Win and Myat Nyein Aye