世界经济主要指标

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·国际统计数据·

世界经济主要指标

国家统计局国际统计信息中心

一、世界经济

表1 世界经济增长率(上年=100) 单位：%

注：(1)国际货币基金组织公布的世界及分类数据按照购买力平价方法进行汇总，世界银行和英国共识公司按汇率法进行汇总。 (2)印度数据指财政年度。(3)各经济体2015年数据已据其官方发布结果做了调整。

表2 世界贸易量增长率(上年=100) 单位：%

注： 包括货物和服务,为出口量增速和进口量增速的简单平均数。

资料来源: 国际货币基金组织2017年4月预测。

表3 消费者价格涨跌率(上年=100) 单位：%

注： (1)印度来源于英国共识公司的数据指财政年度。(2)各经济体2015年数据已据其官方发布结果做了调整。

表4 消费者价格同比上涨率 单位：%

资料来源：世界银行数据库。

表5 工业生产

注：(1)工业生产指数同比增长率为经季节调整的数据。(2)采购经理人指数超过50预示着经济扩张期。

资料来源：世界银行数据库、美国供应管理协会。

二、美国经济

表6 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(环比) 单位：%

表7 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(环比) 单位：%

注：季度数据按季节因素调整、折年率计算(表6、表7)。

资料来源：美国商务部经济分析局(表6、表7)。

表8 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(同比) 单位：%

表9 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(同比) 单位：%

注：季度数据按季节因素调整(表8、表9)。

资料来源：美国商务部经济分析局(表8、表9)。

表10 劳动力市场 单位：%

注：除年度数据以外，劳动生产率增长率为该月份所在季度的增长率。

资料来源：美国劳工统计局。

表11 进出口贸易 单位：亿美元

注：包括货物和服务贸易。因季节调整，各月合计数据不等于全年总计数据。

资料来源：美国商务部普查局。

表12 外国直接投资 单位：亿美元

资料来源：美国商务部经济分析局。

三、欧元区经济

表13 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(环比) 单位：%

表14 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(环比) 单位：%

资料来源：欧盟统计局数据库(表13、表14)。

表15 劳动力市场 单位：%

注：除年度数据以外，劳动生产率增长率为该月份所在季度增长率；就业人数为该月份所在季度的环比变化。

资料来源：欧洲央行统计月报、欧盟统计局数据库。

表16 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(同比) 单位：%

表17 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(同比) 单位：%

资料来源：欧盟统计局数据库(表16、表17)。

表18 进出口贸易 单位：亿欧元

注：欧元区绝对数指欧元区现有范围，即19个成员国。贸易额不包括欧元区各成员国相互之间的贸易额，为经季节调整后的数据。

资料来源：欧盟统计局数据库。

表19 外国直接投资 单位：亿欧元

注：欧元区绝对数指欧元区现有范围，即19个成员国。欧元区外国直接投资额不包括欧元区各成员国相互之间的直接投资额。

资料来源：欧洲央行统计月报。

四、日本经济

表20 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(环比) 单位：%

表21 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(环比) 单位：%

表22 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(同比) 单位：%

表23 国内生产总值及其构成增长率(同比) 单位：%

资料来源：日本内阁府(表20～表23)。

表24 劳动力市场 单位：%

资料来源：日本统计局和日本央行统计月报。

表25 进出口贸易 单位：亿日元

注：月度贸易额为季节调整后数据。

资料来源：日本财务省。

表26 外国直接投资 单位：亿日元

资料来源：日本财务省。

五、其他主要国家和地区经济

表27 国内生产总值增长率(同比) 单位：%

注：印度年度GDP增长率为财年增长率。

表28 国内生产总值增长率(同比) 单位：%

资料来源：各经济体官方统计网站。

表29 劳动力市场失业率 单位：%

表30 劳动力市场失业率 单位：%

注：(1)英国和中国香港月度数据为截至当月的3个月移动平均失业率。(2)加拿大、英国、韩国和中国香港为经季节因素调整后的失业率。

资料来源：各经济体官方统计网站。

表31 进出口贸易 单位：亿美元

注：加拿大和英国数据经过季节因素调整。

表32 进出口贸易 单位：亿美元

表33 进出口贸易 单位：亿美元

表34 进出口贸易 单位：亿美元

表35 进出口贸易 单位：亿美元

表36 进出口贸易 单位：亿美元

资料来源：各经济体官方统计网站(表27～表36)。

六、三大经济体指标对比图

图1 三大经济体GDP环比增长率(%)注：美国为环比折年率增长率。

图2 三大经济体失业率变动(%)

图3 三大经济体出口额同比增长率(%)

图4 三大经济体进口额同比增长率(%) 数据来源：各经济体官方统计网站(图1～图4)。

(1)Deepening the reform: the key to the formation of middle-income mainstream groups

Tian Xueyuan

in 2016, with its per capita GDP reaching US $8102, China entered the middle stage of the middle and high income period, which was a critical period for the formation of middle-income mainstream groups. At the moment, the most important tasks are to deepen the social and economic reforms in an all-round way, especially the reforms of economic transformation and structural adjustment, the integration of rural migrant workers into the cities and the income distribution system. To accelerate the formation of economic foundation of middle-income groups, deepening economic transformation and structural adjustment are the key, and breaking through key limitations of the traditional mode of development and demand side reforms to achieve transformation from the demand side to supply side reforms are necessary. Rural migrants entering the town is the objective needs of the social economic development in our country, having become an integral part of city economy and social life, which called for reform that turns the peasants into citizens. In recent years, the trend of urban and rural income gap has been somewhat convergent, but the gap is still large. The Gini coefficient changes with the peak value of 2008 as the dividing line, and at present the Gini coefficient is still high, which calls for reform to deepen the income distribution system.

(2)The counter tide of anti-globalization and the deepening of economic globalization

Chen Zongsheng and Kang Jian

Under the doldrums of the economic situation after the global financial crisis, structural imbalances and serious intensification of class interests differentiation of in developed countries induced the birth of the current anti-globalization counter flow. Globalization is facing serious challenges, and the uncertainties faced by its process are increasing, but the long-term trend of deepening globalization will not be reversed. The rising emerging economies together with the reallocation, flow, integration of technology, capital, labor and institutional factors in the global scope of the interactive form together form the driving force for globalization and will push forward globalization towards the direction of continued deepening. As the leading country of emerging economies, China under the new situation should become the active promoter of globalization, whose basic strategic initiatives include the promotion of supply side structural reform, innovation-driven development, “The Belt and Road” initiative, the internationalization of the RMB, and actively participatation in the construction of global economic governance and Governance system.

(3)The return to manufacturing: the only way to save Hongkong’s economy——Suggestions on the construction of the cross border economic corridor of emerging industries of Hong Kong and Shenzhen

Li Luoli

The most fundamental problem of Hongkong’s society is the economic problem. The fundamental way to revive the economy of Hongkong is to solve the problem of industrial hollowing out in Hongkong and the key is for the manufacturing industry to return to Hongkong. In view of the Hongkong local high business cost, and the lack of the premise and basis of configuring emerging industrial resources, this article proposes the establishment of a new industrial economic zone in the boundary of Shenzhen and Hong Kong similar to “Singapore Jurong industrial corridor”, to attract both domestic and global outstanding high-tech enterprises and emerging industries to settle down here, taking advantages of Hongkong in financial, logistics, international free port, and of China mainland mainly Shenzhen in capital, talent and technology to develop the Shenzhen Hong Kong cross-border high-tech industry economic corridor to be China 4.0 industrial innovation circle. The construction of the economic corridor of emerging industries between Hong Kong and Shenzhen is the fundamental measure to maintain Hongkong’s stability and prosperity in the new period. It is suggested to incorporate the construction of the “cross border economic corridor of emerging industries of Hong Kong and Shenzhen” into the national strategy.

(4)Several fatal traps must be highly vigilant

Huang Zhiling

Taking a broad view of the economic and social development of countries all over the world, we find some countries are bogged down and unable to extricate themselves, while some countries have succeeded in crossing traps and developing continuously. This paper in-depth analyzes several deadly traps of social and economic development, from the conditions, mechanism, prevention, fatal consequences and how to avoid. The liquidity trap is the long-term accumulation of extreme situations of deflation, the excessive welfare trap is due to the accumulation of economic aging effect, corruption trap is a major obstacle traps across the “middle income trap”. By international comparison of positive and negative experience, we argue that only the social consensus, comprehensive assessment, careful selection, and positive guidance can avoid the tragedy, stride across a deadly trap, and realize the social and economic development and upgrade.

(5)An analysis on the probability and effectiveness of Trump’s economic policy implementation

Gu Yuanyang

during the presidential election, Trump threw out a series of economic propositions, which were hotly discussed and responded differently. President Trump and his cabinet members will base on the responses from both internal and external of the party and from home and abroad to correct economic propositions put forward, and make those internal and external economic ideas gradually clearer, to form the economic policies and strategies of the new government. However, actually it is not easy to implement due to internal and external constraints at home and abroad, and the internal contradictions and inherent differences in actual policy will emerge. Whether Trump’s several important measures to stimulate the economy can achieve the desired goal depends on a variety of factors and conditions, which needs objective analysis and verification by practice.

(6)Trade war under the background of economic globalization: theoretical analysis and China’s countermeasures

Ke Jianfei and Yu Lixin

The trend of economic globalization is irreversible, and economic ties among countries are becoming increasingly close. At present the world economic recovery is weak, trade protection forces gain ground, and trade frictions are escalating. From the operational loss theory of the Lanchester equation using the trade data between the two powers, we simulate the impact of trade between the two countries under the background of economic globalization. The results of the study show that a trade war will have a huge impact on bilateral trade with generally trade surplus countries to suffer the more, and considering the reputation incentive trade war, the trade volume of countries pursuing inclusive and open trade policy decreases and then slowly rises. Based on the analysis of current situation and trends of bilateral trade relations between China and the United States, and combined with China’s actual situation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions of countermeasures on expanding the market, enhancing own strength, perfecting the system and early warning system.

(7) A proposal to promote the establishment of a global cyberspace governance system

Zhang Yingqiang

To promote the establishment of a global network space management system, this article suggests to establish and perfect the national cyberspace strategic layout, speed up the implementation of the “network power” strategy; actively carry out the “digital diplomacy”, have a clear-cut stance to put forward “Chinese multi-stakeholder governance model; vigorously develop the “digital economy” and enhance our country’s network space influence; construct the new model of “you have me, I have you” for of Sino US network spatial relationship; establish the technology system of self-control network space and strengthen China’s information security; establish new governance system for the global “digital economy” to lead a new global economic development; establish and perfect the new system of the digital economy and promote the reform of administrative management system; establish a unified social credit system and optimize the development environment for the “digital economy”; take the initiative to set up the “agenda” for the governance of cyberspace and promote the construction of a new system for global cyberspace governance.

(8)Progress and prospect of new urbanization in China

Li Di

In 2015-2016 with the gradual improvement of system construction to promote new urbanization, the quality and efficiency of China’s urbanization construction gradually improved, urban and rural areas significantly improved, and the leading role of city group for the new urbanization grew. But we should also see the problems accumulated during the early stage of urbanization such as the non-integration between production and city, “people” and “land” contradictions, land acquisition and demolition and reconstruction of the village in the city, the level of public services lagging behind the process of urbanization, urban and rural governance and other issues which have not been fundamentally solve and need solving imminently. In 2017, with the gradual release of policies and planning effect, the quality and efficiency of China’s new urbanization development continue to improve, but China’s new urbanization still needs strengthening the system design, developing city agglomeration economy, constructing intensive city, and promoting the system construction for urban and rural governance.

(9)The present situation, problems and countermeasures of the innovative city construction in China

Wang Riyue, Xu Chenyang, and Fang Zixian

The future science and technology center must be in the form of the city, which is a new form of the city with scientific and technological innovation as the main function and the core mechanism. Beijing, Shanghai and other central cities still need improving in the creation of innovative space environment. How to address the uncertainties of cities, deal with the relationship between the development of creative industry, the city major infrastructure and city space structure, and creating a good environment for the development of innovative enterprise are priorities among priorities to establish the status of International Innovation Center to achieve sustainable development. The birth, transformation and radiation of innovation need not be completely confined with in the core area of the city. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the foundation for innovation cities, and whether a city is an innovative city depends on the innovation of small and medium enterprises.

Editor：Huang Yongfu

责任编辑：陈璇璇

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