China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative Is Boon for Asia Capital Markets“一带一路”：亚洲资本市场的福音

文/戈登·弗兰奇 译/安砚贞

By Gordon French1

China’s “Belt and Road” infrastructure investment drive will help boost the flow of physical goods across large swathes of Eurasia, southern Asia and even parts of Africa and the Middle East. Less obvious is the impact that the vast amount of spending linked to the initiative2initiative倡议。will have in the financial arena—in the currency and bond markets in Asia and beyond.

[2] First announced in 2013, the “Belt and Road” initiative is an essential part of China’s domestic economic rebalancing, and of its outbound ambitions. The initiative entails ploughing billions of dollars into the hardware—railways,highways and ports—that links China and the dozens of countries to its west and south. The goal is to encourage more cross-border trade3cross-bordertrade跨境贸易。while putting excess capacities4excess capacities过剩产能。to work.

[3] The impact on the software of financing will also be significant: the vast amounts of money needed to meet Asia’s infrastructure needs will inject fresh momentum into the region’s capital markets.

[4] Investment in planned and ongoing “Belt and Road” projects could total Rmb1.5tn (roughly $240bn) in the coming years. Part of this will come via a$40bn Silk Road Fund, and the newlylaunched $100bn Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)5亚洲基础设施投资银行。.

[5] Yet this is only a small part of the trillions that will need to flow into transport and urban infrastructure over the coming decades as developing nations aim to raise productivity and deal with rising urbanization6urbanization城镇化。. In China alone,more than 200m people are expected to leave their fields and villages for jobs in the city in the next 15 years. Across Asia, the total is about 640m.

[6] Reforms in China have expanded the options available to foreign and domestic investors and issuers in recent years—from “dim sum” bonds (renminbidenominated, issued outside the Chinese mainland) to “panda” bonds (renminbidenominated, issued by non-Chinese entities but sold in the Chinese mainland).

[7] The “Belt and Road” initiative will trigger more issuance and investment.What is more, it could galvanise7galvanise激励。China’s financial reforms, and encourage policymakers to further open the country’s capital market to global participants.

[8] This is good news. A more liquid and diverse bond market will help improve the allocation of capital, reduce the Chinese economy’s heavy reliance on bank lending, and expand financing options for private companies, whose growth is key to the economic rebalancing that Beijing is trying to achieve.

[9] As a global financial centre in China, Hong Kong has a critical role to play. The city is home to a large,world-class financial and professionalservices industry, deep and well established capital markets, a respected regulatory framework and the world’s largest offshore8offshore离岸（金融中心）。pool of renminbi—key ingredients for the task of connecting the supply of capital to the demand for investment opportunities. Hong Kong’s combination of global connections and understanding of the local situation is unique and will give it an edge in financing the “Belt and Road” initiative.

[10] Local-currency markets in other countries along the “Belt and Road”routes could also get a crucial boost from the initiative.

[11] Emerging Asian local-currency bond markets have developed rapidly.Outstanding9outstanding已发行尚未偿还的（债券）。volumes of such bonds have soared from $836bn at the end of 2000 to $8.78tn late last year, according to the Asian Development Bank.

[12] “Belt and Road”-related spending will help provide the “push-factor”that will provide much-needed breadth,depth and liquidity to many of Asia’s smaller markets. The effect of the AIIB and other issuers tapping these local markets for “Belt and Road”-related financing will be to widen the local credit universe, attract investor attention globally, and expand corporate access to long-term capital around the region.

[13] A “pull-factor” is also at work here, in the form of Asian cash looking for yield and investment options.

[14] Many of Asia’s economies are still growing well above the global average. In the Asean region—comprising the 10 member nations of the Southeast Asian grouping—the middle class is set to double by 2025. While household,corporate and government debt levels have risen in parts of the region, they mostly remain low compared to those in the developed world. And for an ageing population in many countries in the region, the stable income provided by bonds can be an attractive investment option as retirement approaches.

[15] This convergence10convergence契合。of supply and demand could help transform Asian financing markets in the coming years,expanding the role of bond markets in recycling Asian savings into longterm investment in infrastructure for growth—especially if policy makers manage to bring about more cohesion11cohesion凝聚力。in areas like taxation, foreign exchange regulation and credit ratings12credit ratings信用评级。.

[16] On the currency front, meanwhile,more and more of the increased trade that “Belt and Road” facilitates will be settled in renminbi. In other words, the initiative will help boost the internationalisation of the Chinese currency.

[17] The “Belt and Road” initiative will help make it easier for trucks, ships and trains to transport goods around large parts of the globe. But it could well have another valuable impact in oiling the wheels of finance. ■

中国的“一带一路”基础设施投资会助推有形商品在大片区域的流动，包括欧亚大陆、南亚，甚至非洲和中东的部分地区。不那么显而易见的是与这一倡议相关的大规模支出对于金融领域，即对亚洲及其他地区货币和债券市场的影响。

[2]“一带一路”倡议于2013年首次提出，是中国国内经济再平衡、实现走出去雄心的一个重要举措。这意味着要将数十亿美元资金投入铁路、公路、港口等硬件建设，这些硬件将中国与其西面和南面的数十个国家连接起来。其目标是鼓励更多的跨境贸易，同时，将过剩产能投入使用。

[3]金融软件也会受到重大影响：为满足亚洲基础设施需求而投入的巨额资金将为该区域的资本市场注入新动力。

[4]未来几年，“一带一路”倡议进行及正在进行的各项目投资总额可能高达1.5万亿元人民币（约2400亿美元）。部分资金将来自拥有400亿美元资金的丝路基金，以及新成立的拥有1000亿美元资金的亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB）。

[5]但这只是所需资金的一小部分，未来几十年，发展中国家为提高生产率，应对日益增长的城镇化，需要投入数万亿资金到交通和城市基础设施建设中。仅在中国，接下来的15年，预计将有超过2亿人离开故土乡村，到城市找工作。在整个亚洲，这样的人约有6.4亿。

[6]近些年，中国的改革使国内外的投资者以及债券发行人有了更多的选择——从“点心债券”（在中国大陆之外发行、以人民币计价的债券）到“熊猫债券”（由非中国实体发行、但在中国大陆销售、以人民币计价的债券）。

[7]“一带一路”倡议将带动更多的债券发行和投资，而且会激励中国的金融改革，鼓励决策者进一步向全球参与者开放国内资本市场。

[8]这是好消息。一个更加流动、多元的债券市场将有助于改善资本配置，减少中国经济对银行贷款的严重依赖，为私营公司提供更多融资选择。私营公司的增长对于中国所努力实现的经济再平衡非常关键。

[9]香港是中国的全球金融中心，其作用至关重要。香港拥有世界一流的大规模金融和专业服务行业、深厚健全的资本市场、备受尊敬的监管体系和世界最大的人民币离岸中心——这些是将资金供给与投资机遇的需求相结合的关键要素。中国香港联通世界，又谙熟国内情况，此独特之处将为其在“一带一路”倡议融资中赢得竞争优势。

[10]“一带一路”沿线其他国家的本币市场也可能从该倡议中获得重大推动。

[11]新兴的亚洲本币债券市场已经有了快速发展。亚洲开发银行的数据显示，已发行尚未偿还的这类债券金额已经从2000年年底的8360亿美元剧增到2015年晚些时候的8.78万亿美元。

[12]与“一带一路”相关的支出将带来“推动因素”，为亚洲的很多小市场提供亟需的市场宽度、深度和流动性。亚洲基础设施投资银行和其他发行者为“一带一路”进行相关融资而发掘利用这些市场，这会拓宽当地信贷领域，吸引全球投资者关注，扩大该区域企业获得长期资本的渠道。

[13]“拉动因素”也在发挥作用，其表现是亚洲资金在寻找更多的回报和投资选择。

[14]很多亚洲经济体的增长速度仍在世界平均水平之上。在东南亚国家联盟（由10个东南亚国家组成）地区，中产阶层人数到2025年将翻倍。虽然在该地区部分国家，家庭、企业和政府债务水平已经上升，但大部分国家的债务水平仍比发达国家低。而且，对该地区很多国家的老龄人口来说，随着退休临近，债券所带来的稳定收益会成为颇具吸引力的投资选择。

[15]供给和需求的这种契合可能有助于亚洲金融市场未来几年的转型，扩大债券市场在将亚洲的储蓄转化为增长所需的长期基础设施投资上的作用——如果政策制定者努力在税收、外汇管制和信用评级等领域达到更多的协调一致，则成效会更为显著。

[16]同时，在货币方面，“一带一路”所助增的贸易将越来越多地以人民币结算。换句话说，该倡议将促进人民币的国际化。

[17]“一带一路”倡议将使卡车、轮船和火车在世界大部分地区更方便地运输货物。而该倡议也肯定会对加快金融发展产生积极影响。 □

（译者单位：广东工业大学）