高被引论文摘要

邓起东，徐锡伟，张先康，等

高被引论文摘要

被引频次：175

城市活动断裂探测的方法和技术

邓起东，徐锡伟，张先康，等

发生在城市范围内的直下型大地震可能产生巨大的灾害，包括高的振动破坏和强的断裂地表错动。因此，

城市；活动断裂探测；方法和技术

来源出版物：地学前缘, 2003, 10(1): 93-103

被引频次：137

城市绿地系统建设与城市减灾防灾

包志毅，陈波

摘要：自然灾害往往给城市造成重大损失。在城市综合防灾减灾体系中，城市绿地系统占有十分重要的位置。城市绿地系统是城市规划和建设中的重要组成部分，它不仅具有美化城市环境、净化空气、平衡城市生态系统、为城市居民提供休憩游乐场所等作用，同时还具有防震、防火、防洪、减轻灾害的功能。从城市绿地的定义和分类入手，分析了城市绿地系统在城市综合防灾减灾中的作用，并通过介绍和分析日本防灾公园的规划建设，探讨了城市避灾绿地系统的规划方法。

关键词：城市绿地系统；城市公园；自然灾害；减灾；防灾

来源出版物：自然灾害学报, 2004, 13(2): 155-160

被引频次：126

城市防震减灾能力评估研究

张风华，谢礼立

摘要：首先论述了目前国内外关于城市地震灾害风险评估的研究，分析了这些研究取得的成果和存在的不足。然后，提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念，采用人员伤亡、经济损失和震后恢复时间作为衡量城市防震减灾能力强弱的3个最基本的要。围绕这3个基本要素，列举出影响城市防震减灾能力的6大因素，在此基础上，提出了城市防震减灾能力评价指标体系的具体内容。

关键词：城市防震减灾能力；地震人员伤亡；经济损失；震后恢复时间

来源出版物：自然灾害学报, 2007, 37(2): 129-150

被引频次：112

城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题

邓起东

摘要：城市范围内直下型活动断裂突发错动产生的直下型大地震，直接威胁城市和人民生命财产的安全。城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价是为城市减灾服务的一项系统工程，也是活动构造研究面临的一项新的工作。这一工作的核心是要解决城市范围内的断裂定位、断裂最新活动、断裂的深部背景、断裂的地震危险性和地面错动危险性及减灾对策。为了更好地理解这一问题，作者用“有没有、活不活、深不深，震不震，错不错，好对策”这6句话来表示其核心内容。文中对这些问题作了具体的说明。

关键词：活动断裂；地震危险性；城市

来源出版物：地震地质, 2002, 24(4): 601-605

被引频次：89

中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究

史培军，杜鹃，冀萌新，等

摘要：本文依据灾害系统理论和中国自然灾害数据库，构建了反映城市承灾体的综合城市化水平（CL）指标，并在此基础上得到城市脆弱性水平指数。考虑对城市具有结构性破坏和易于造成交通灾情的主要灾种，即水灾、地震、滑坡—泥石流、台风、沙尘暴，构建了反映城市主要致灾因子的综合自然灾害强度（QC）指标，并得到城市综合自然灾害强度指数。据此，在定性分析的基础上，通过半定量计算，将中国城市主要自然灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险、低风险5个等级，编制了中国城市自然灾害风险评价图，并对灾害链的综合风险评价作了进一步的探讨。

关键词：综合城市化水平；灾害脆弱性；综合自然灾害强度；综合自然灾害风险评价

来源出版物：地球科学进展, 2006, 21(2): 170-177

被引频次：82

数字减灾系统

谢礼立，温瑞智

摘要：自然灾害是人类可持续发展过程中面临的挑战。本文首先澄清了自然灾害与灾象的概念，分析了当代自然灾害产生的特征，结合计算机技术的发展和人类对自然灾害的认识，提出了建设数字减灾系统的设想。数字减灾系统是一种以遥感技术、地理信息系统、全球定位系统、网络技术等作为主要技术支撑，用数学和物理模型通过多维虚拟现实技术研究灾象成因、发生机理、传播规律和作用于人类环境形成自然灾害全过程的信息化的计算机系统，它既可用于为人类和社会对灾害作出反应，进行防震减灾行为和制订决策的一种系统，也可以直接用于研究灾害本身，包括灾害形成及其防御的各个环节。作为今后防灾减灾领域的一个重要发展方向，数字减灾系统具有满足社会和经济发展急需，对科学发展的推动作用大，科学创新点明确，内涵丰富，技术路线可行而且具有高起点、高效率的特点。

关键词：自然灾害；数字减灾系统；数字地球

来源出版物：自然灾害学报, 2000, 9(2): 1-9

被引频次：80

中国未来10～15年地震灾害的风险评估

聂高众，高建国，马宗晋，等

摘要：中国是世界上地震灾害损失最严重的国家之一，全国50%以上的城市和70%左右的大中城市位于7度及以上烈度区内。地震的发生给中国社会带来了很大的危害和损失，主要的损失分布在以北京为中心的首都圈地区和云南－四川－陕西－内蒙古相连的南北带上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震损失较大的地区。所谓地震灾害风险是指建立在各地防震减灾能力基础上的未来地震损失估汁，风险的特征是具有一定的不确定性．从中国的实际情况来看，东部沿海地区、首都圈地区及内陆的个别地区防震减灾能力较强，而未来地震危险性则以中国西部地区和华北地区为主。通过对中国未来10～15年地震风险的研究，可以认为，中国的东部地区虽然有一定的地震危险性，但由于其经济发达，减灾能力很强，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险较小；中国的中部（南北带）和西部地区地震危险性很大，同时经济欠发达，减灾能力较差，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险很大。

关键词：地震；风险评估；中国

来源出版物：自然灾害学报, 2002, 10(1): 68-73

被引频次：65

中国城市地震灾害危险度评价

徐伟，王静爱，史培军，等

摘要：应用中国历史上发生的M≥4的6759条地震信息和2000年中国672个城市的有关信息，采用中国城市近源地震等效震级和城市地震灾害承灾体易损性指数CV，构建了中国城市地震灾害危险度指数WX，并编制了相应的分布图。研究表明：中国41.82%的城市历史上发生过的近源地震。CV高值城市的分布与我国城市群、城市带的分布并不一致。华北地区、台湾岛地区是我国城市高危险度的高密集区，其次是福建广东沿海、云南省、新疆天山山脉等地区。WX值在3.0以上的37个城市应作为国家减轻地震灾害的重点城市。

关键词：城市近源地震；承灾体易损性指数；危险度评价；中国城市

来源出版物：自然灾害学报, 2004, 13(1): 9-15

被引频次：61

城市防震减灾能力评估研究

张风华，谢礼立，范立础

摘要：城市防震减灾能力本身是一个涉及因素众多的复杂体系，对它的评估也是涉及到地震科学、社会科学和经济科学的交叉学科问题。本文首先提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念，把人员伤亡、经济损失和震后恢复时间等3个方面作为衡量城市防震减灾能力的准则；围绕这3个准则，从影响城市防震减灾能力的众多复杂因素中抽取出六大因素，并用一些简单、可测量的指标来代表这六大因素，建立起城市防震减灾能力指标体系；然后建立起指标体系与上述3个方面评价准则人员伤亡、经济损失和恢复时间的联系；最后，用灰色关联分析方法将3个评价准则综合成一个防震减灾能力指数。从而为城市防震减灾能力评估提供了一个较系统、完整的理论体系框架。理论体系的建立能够在绝对上、定量上评价城市的防震减灾能力，从而指导城市进行防震减灾决策。

关键词：城市防震减灾能力评估；人员伤亡；经济损失；震后恢复时间；指标体系；灰色关联分析；防震减灾能力指数

来源出版物：地震学报, 2004, 26(3): 318-329

被引频次：51

GIS在城市防震减灾应急决策中的应用

火恩杰，宋俊高，朱元清，等

摘要：将地理信息系统（GIS）技术应用于城市防震减灾工作，建立了“上海市防震减灾应急决策信息系统（宝山试点区）”。介绍了该系统的组成及各功能模块的结构和作用，并重点分析了系统的核心模块：地震灾害快速评估子系统和地震应急决策信息子系统。

关键词：地理信息系统；防震减灾；震害快速评估；应急决策

来源出版物：自然灾害学报, 2000, 9(3): 15-22

被引频次：292

来源出版物：European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 179(3): 1177-1193

被引频次：167

Multicriteria planning of post-earthquake sustainable reconstruction

Opricovic, S; Tzeng, GH

Abstract:A multicriteria model is developed for analyzing the planning strategies for reducing the future social and economic costs in the area with potential natural hazard. The developed multicriteria decision-making procedure consists of generating alternatives, establishing criteria, assessment of criteria weights, and application of the compromise ranking method (VIKOR). The alternatives are the scenarios of sustainable hazard effects mitigation, generated in the form of comprehensive reconstruction plans, including the redevelopment of urban areas and infrastructures, multipurpose land use, and restrictions on building in hazardous areas. The plans have to be evaluated according to the criteria representing public safety, sustainability, social environment, natural environment, economy, culture, and politics. The multicriteria model can treat all relevant conflicting effects and impacts in their representative units. The evaluation of alternatives is implicated with imprecision (or uncertainty) of established criteria, and the fuzzy multicriteria model is developed to deal with “qualitative” (unquantifiable or linguistic) or incomplete information. The application of this model is illustrated with the post-earthquake reconstruction problem in Central Taiwan, including the restoration concerning the safe and serviceable operation of “lifeline” systems, such as electricity, water and transportation networks, immediately after a severe earthquake.

来源出版物：Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 2002, 17(3): 211-220

被引频次：167

Longitudinal study of earthquake-related PTSD in a randomly selected community sample in North China

Wang, XD; Gao, L; Shinfuku, N; et al.

Abstract:Objective: This study longitudinally described ra res of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in two groups with different levels of severity of exposure to an earthquake in North China. The effects of diagnostic criteria on the frequency of detected PTSD were also examined. Method: Subjects were randomly sampled in two villages at different distances from the earthquake epicenter. A total of 181 and 157 subjects were assessed at 3 months and 9 months after the earthquake, respectively, for PTSD by using both DSM-IV and DSM-III-R criteria. The brief Version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment and three subscales of the SCL-90-R were also administered at both assessment points. Results: The village with a higher level of initial exposure to the earthquake and a higher level of postearthquake support had a lower frequency of PTSD than the village with a lower level of initial exposure and less postearthquake support. The rate of onset of DSM-IV PTSD within 9 months for the two villages was 19.8% and 30.3%, respectively. In both villages, the rate of onset of earthquake-related PTSD within 9 months was 24.2% by using DSM-IV criteria and 41.4% by using DSM-III-R criteria. The introduction in DSM-IV of a criterion requiring clinically significant distress or impairment in functioning for a diagnosis of PTSD was a major contributor to the lower rate of DSM-IV PTSD. Conclusions: PTSD may be as prevalent and persistent in disaster victims in China as in those elsewhere. Prompt and effective postdisaster intervention could mitigate the impact of initial exposure and reduce the probability of PTSD occurrence. Caution should be used in comparing rates of postdisaster PTSD identified by using different diagnostic criteria.

Keywords:Network intrusion detection; passive network monitoring; network monitoring evasion; domain-specific languages

来源出版物：American Journal of Psychiatry, 2000, 157(8): 1260-1266

被引频次：130

Earthquake damage assessment of buildings using VHR optical and SAR imagery

Brunner, Dominik; Lemoine, Guido;Bruzzone, Lorenzo; et al.

Abstract:Rapid damage assessment after natural disasters (e. g., earthquakes) and violent conflicts (e. g., war-related destruction) is crucial for initiating effective emergency response actions. Remote-sensing satellites equipped with very high spatial resolution (VHR) multispectral and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging sensors can provide vital information due to their ability to map the affected areas with high geometric precision and in an uncensored manner. In this paper, we present a novel method that detects buildings destroyed in an earthquake using pre-event VHR optical and post-event detected VHR SAR imagery. The method operates at the level of individual buildings and assumes that they have a rectangular footprint and are isolated. First, the 3-D parameters of a building are estimated from the pre-event optical imagery. Second, the building information and theacquisition parameters of the VHR SAR scene are used to predict the expected signature of the building in the post-event SAR scene assuming that it is not affected by the event. Third, the similarity between the predicted image and the actual SAR image is analyzed. If the similarity is high, the building is likely to be still intact, whereas a low similarity indicates that the building is destroyed. A similarity threshold is used to classify the buildings. We demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the method for a subset of the town of Yingxiu, China, which was heavily damaged in the Sichuan earthquake of May 12, 2008. For the experiment, we use QuickBird and WorldView-1 optical imagery, and TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed SAR data.

Keywords:damage assessment; damage detection; data fusion; multisensor change detection; natural disaster; remote sensing; synthetic aperture radar (SAR); urban areas; very high spatial resolution (VHR) images

来源出版物：IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 2010, 48(5): 2403-2420 Transportation Review, 2007, 43(6): 673-686

被引频次：130

Mufti-objective optimal planning for designing relief delivery systems

Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung; Cheng, Hsin-Jung; Huang, Tsung Dow

Abstract:The fatal earthquake on September 21, 1999 caused significant damages to Taiwan, which made the national government focus on strengthening relief systems regarding natural disasters. Disaster prevention, protection, and reconstruction are the major areas of focus to reduce human suffering and damage from disasters. A key point is the ability to enhance the distribution of relief materials effectively. In this study, we construct a relief-distribution model using the mufti-objective programming method for designing relief delivery systems in a real case. The model features three objectives: minimizing the total cost, minimizing the total travel time, and maximizing the minimal satisfaction during the planning period. The first two objectives pursue the efficiency goal, whereas the third pursue fairness-making best effort to ensure relief commodity delivery to all demand points. Results of an empirical study are presented and suggestions are given for future research.

Keywords:earthquake; multi-objective programming; natural disaster; relief distribution; relief systems

来源出版物：Transportation Research Part E-Logistics and

被引频次：80

Development of an earthquake early warning system using real-time strong motion signals

Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo

Abstract:As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to lives and properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zones offshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquake hazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages. An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with a few sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive S-wave part of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time will be useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such as rapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be also useful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown of hightechnological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guarding of computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach to EEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τcand a high-pass filtered vertical displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a given site, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τcand the peak ground-motion velocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A P-wave trigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τcand Pd are computed. The earthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and the warning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10 sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last for tens of seconds.

Keywords:earthquake; early warning system; seismic hazard mitigation

来源出版物：Sensors, 2008, 8(1): 1-9

被引频次：73

Seismic resilience of a hospital system

Cimellaro, Gian Paolo; Reinhorn, Andrei M; Bruneau, Michel

Abstract:This paper presents a comprehensive model to quantify disaster resilience of systems that is defined as the capability to sustain functionality and recover from losses generated by extreme events. The model combines loss estimation and recovery models and can be applied to critical facilities (e. g. hospitals, military buildings, etc.), as well as utility lifelines (e. g. electric power systems, transportation networks, water systems etc.) that are crucial to the response of recovery processes, decisions and policies. Current research trend leads toward the definition of complex recovery models that are able to describe the process over time and the spatial definition of recovery (e. g. meta-models for the case of health care facilities). The model has been applied to a network of hospitals in Memphis, Tennessee. The resilience framework can be used as a decision support tool to increase the resilience index of systems, such as health care facilities, and reduce disaster vulnerability and consequences.

Keywords:fragility; functionality; hospital; losses; recovery; resilience

来源出版物：Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2010, 6(2): 127-144

被引频次：65

Real-time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation

Kanamori, H; Hauksson, E; Heaton, T

Abstract:Recent advances in seismic sensor technology, data acquisition systems, digital communications, and computer hardware and software make it possible to build reliable real-time earthquake information systems. Such systems provide a means for modern urban regions to cope effectively with the aftermath of major earthquakes and, in some cases, they may even provide warning, seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the long term these systems also provide basic data for mitigation strategies such as improved building codes.

来源出版物：Nature, 1997, 390(6659): 461-464

被引频次：57

Modelling seismic hazard in earthquake loss models with spatially distributed exposure

Crowley, Helen; Bommer, Julian J

Abstract:The prediction of possible future losses from earthquakes, which in many cases affect structures that are spatially distributed over a wide area, is of importance to national authorities, local governments, and the insurance and reinsurance industries. Generally, it is necessary to estimate the effects of many, or even all, potential earthquake scenarios that could impact upon these urban areas. In such cases, the purpose of the loss calculations is to estimate the annual frequency of exceedance (or the return period) of different levels of loss due to earthquakes: so-called loss exceedance curves. An attractive option for generating loss exceedance curves is to perform independent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculations at several locations simultaneously and to combine the losses at each site for each annual frequency of exceedance. An alternative method involves the use of multiple earthquake scenarios to generate ground motions at all sites of interest, defined through Monte-Carlo simulations based on the seismicity model. The latter procedure is conceptually sounder but considerably more time-consuming. Both procedures are applied to a case study loss model and the loss exceedance curves and average annual losses are compared to ascertain the influence of using a more theoretically robust, though computationally intensive, procedure to represent the seismic hazard in loss modelling.

Keywords:average annual loss; earthquake loss modelling; ground-motion variability; scenario earthquakes; seismic hazard; spatial correlation

来源出版物：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2006, 4(3): 249-273

Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation

Parsons, T; Toda, S; Stein, RS; et al.

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M=7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62+/-15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32+/-12% during the next decade.来源出版物：Science, 2000, 288(5466): 661-665被引频次：173A dynamic logistics coordination model for evacuation and support in disaster response activitiesYi, Wei; Ozdamar, LinetAbstract:This paper describes an integrated locationdistribution model for coordinating logistics support and evacuation operations in disaster response activities. Logistics planning in emergencies involves dispatching commodities (e.g., medical materials and personnel, specialised rescue equipment and rescue teams, food, etc.) to distribution centres in affected areas and evacuation and transfer of wounded people to emergency units. During the initial response time it is also necessary to set up temporary emergency centers and shelters in affected areas to speed up medical care for less heavily wounded survivors. In risk mitigation studies for natural disasters, possible sites where these units can be situated are specified according to risk based urban structural analysis. Logistics coordination in disasters involves the selection of sites that result in maximum coverage of medical need in affected areas. Another important issue that arises in such emergencies is that medical personnel who are on duty in nearby hospitals have to be re-shuffled to serve both temporary and permanent emergency units. Thus, an optimal medical personnel allocation must be determined among these units. The proposed model also considers this issue. The proposed model is a mixed integer multi-commodity network flow model that treats vehicles as integer commodity flows rather than binary variables. This results in a more compact formulation whose output is processed to extract a detailed vehicle route and load instruction sheet. Post processing is achieved by a simple routing algorithm that is pseudo-polynomial in the number of vehicles utilized, followed by the solution of a linear system of equations defined in a very restricted domain. The behavior and solvability of the model is illustrated on an earthquake scenario based on Istanbul's risk grid as well as larger size hypothetical disaster scenarios.

secure communication protocols; sensor networks; mobile ad hoc networks; MANET; authentication of wireless communication; secrecy and confidentiality; cryptography

城市范围内的直下型活动断裂和隐伏活动断裂探测及地震危险性和危害性评价是十分重要的。立足于城市环境复杂、污染重、干扰强的特点，文中介绍了城市活动断裂探测的主要方法，包括地质地貌、地球化学和地球物理方面的多种探测方法。在地质地貌方法中，最新断裂活动面的断错地质地貌制图及针对断裂新活动和古地震研究的钻探和槽探具有特别重要的意义，年轻地质体和地貌面年龄测定是一项关键技术；地球化学探查，尤其是多种气体测项在隐伏断裂初步定位中起到先锋作用；在各种地球物理探测中，浅层地震勘探起着关键作用，而在探查活动断裂深部背景和孕震可能性时，各种深地震探测方法是十分重要的。在城市活动断裂探测这一新的工作中，必须更多地强调和更好地做到地质地貌、地球化学和地球物理探测的结合，做到多种探测手段和勘探方法的综合运用，这样才能做好断裂定位、断裂活动性判定及分析断裂孕震条件工作。