Wait and See

By+Sudeshna+Sarkar

Once， the United States would have been considered too far from Cameroon. But in todays Internet era， better and faster communication links have shrunk the world into a global village and made the far near.

So when Cameroonian Raoul Keddy wanted a better life， he did not think of moving to capital Yaounde from Douala， where his family lived， or even to more developed economies on the continent like South Africa. Instead he went to Atlanta.

That was in 2008. Since then， he has become well entrenched in American society， opening a business consultancy and a cleaning service and becoming president of the Houston-based Africa International Chamber of Commerce. He has even served with the U.S. Army as a logistics expert and was deployed in Iraq for a year.

Like the 30-year-old， the lives of thousands of Africans living in the United States are tightly intertwined with the future of the United States. In addition， there is the large group of Africans in Africa who too are impacted by events on American soil - factory workers who manufacture goods for American companies， the socially disadvantaged who benefit from U.S. philanthropy， and students who pursue higher education in American institutions under scholarships， and other communities.

Besides， there are the African governments which have cooperation with U.S. agencies for security， climate-change mitigation and other global issues.

Diplomatic response

How would these relations be affected when Donald Trump ushers in a new Republican government in January？ According to observers， while European leaders have expressed reservations， their African counterparts have remained largely neutral. Except for Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf， who expressed her sorrow on the United States missing the opportunity to elect its first woman president and wondered if Trump would be able to build bridges with Africa， other heads of African states have responded diplomatically.

Some used social media， like Rwandan President Paul Kagame， tweeting to congratulate Trump on his“well-earned victory” and “looking forward to continued good relationship” with the new administration； others issued formal congratulatory statements， like Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni， who said， “Elections in the United States or any country are a matter for the people of that country. Our relationship with the United States will continue regardless of which leader or party is leading.”

While Americans voted for change， Africa， intriguingly， seems to think the status quo will prevail in AfricanU.S. ties， at least during Trumps first presidency.

Jilles Djon， Director of Business Operations at the Shanghai-based African Chamber of Commerce in China （AfCham）， does not see dramatic changes in the United States Africa policy. “It is governed by mostly long-term agreements and contracts，” he said. “A major agreement， the African Growth and Opportunity Act（AGOA）， for example， was extended in 2015 by an Act of Congress till 2025. So the Trump administration will not be able to scrap it. It can be done only after 2025 and to do that Trump will have to continue beyond a first term.”

The AGOA is a 16-year-old preferential trade agreement that allows 38 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to export nearly 7，000 products to the United States without any quota or duty. “A lot of African companies are benefiting from it，” Djon said. “It created 26，000 jobs last year. On the other hand， when countries are removed from the list， like Madagascar was in 2010， it lost almost 66 percent of its U.S. exports.”

As George Boateng， Research Analyst at the African Center for Economic Transformation， a non-profit think tank in Accra， Ghana， sees it， “The real issue is that AGOA may not be extended after 2025， under a Trump presidency or not.” But he feels that may not be a devastating loss for Africa since the success story of the pact seems to have run its course.

After remarkable and sustained growth between 2011 and 2013， when exports to the United States under AGOA jumped from $7.6 billion to $24.8 billion， the volume dropped by almost 50 percent in 2014. Petroleum products account for nearly 70 percent of AGOA exports， coming mainly from Nigeria and Angola， and with the discovery of shale gas in the United States， crude oil exports plunged.

“African countries are now realizing that it is in their best interests to transform the raw materials they export to international markets，” Djon said.“Oil-producing countries， for example， are investing in refineries and technology to refine crude oil. This will add value to exports and also grow a domestic market.”

In this respect， China， he said， has been a source of support. Chinese companies like China Petrochemical Corp. （Sinopec） have built refineries in Africa and provided technological know-how.

AfCham opened in China in 2013， after opening offices in Europe and the Middle East because “you follow the market and China was one of the biggest markets with [nearly] 10 percent growth at a time Europe and the United States were grappling with the global economic crisis，” he said.

It has been established to explore the Far East， from China and Singapore to Japan and the Philippines， and discover new markets. “Though slow， because of the strict [import] regulations [in China]， this market is growing and in another 10 years， there will be a new market in Asia to absorb Africas products，”he added.

Reciprocal relations

Regarding other issues， like security cooperation， while Europe is worried by Trumps election campaign rhetoric that the United States would cut its financial contribution to NATO and member states would have to step up their contributions， Africa thinks it is in Washingtons own interests to support African states in the fight against terrorism. While they lack the financial muscle to do it on their own， terror acts are not confined to Africa； the ripples are now being felt globally， including on American soil.

Sakwa Buliba， Secretary General at International Governance Institute， a civic organization in Kenya， feels reciprocity underlines the model under which the U.S. Government extends assistance to Africa. “Irrespective of which party is in power， the interests of Americans override any other interest，” he said.“Since the U.S. Government has strategic diplomatic and military installations in Africa， it is in their own interest to support Africa to collaborate in protecting these American institutions and pursuing American enemies： terrorists， whom Americans cannot manage on their own.”

Other assistance like supporting the fight against HIV/AIDS and extending educational opportunities to Africans will also continue to expand as this is a key means through which the United States has been spreading its influence around Africa， he added.

Djon sees educational cooperation remaining unaffected. “Many African students go to study in the United States as part of cooperation agreements between African and American universities，” he said. “These were signed a long time back and will continue.”