CHINESE MEDIATION SMOOTHING THE SITUATION IN NORTHERN MYANMAR

By Huang Jiangqin

On December 6,2023,Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) met with Myanmar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Union Minister for Foreign Affairs U Than Swe,who was in China to jointly host the eighth Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Beijing.(MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF CHINA)

Over a month has passed since the Three Brotherhood Alliance-an alliance between the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army(MNDAA),the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA),and the Arakan Army(AA)-launched an offensive against Myanmar government forces in the Shan State of northern Myanmar on October 27,2023 (Operation 1027).Recently,the Myanmar government held talks with representatives of the three ethnic minority armed groups involved in the conflict through mediation by China.

“Myanmar’s National Unity and Peacemaking Coordination Committee met with representatives of the MNDAA,TNLA,and AA with the help of China,” said Zaw Min Tun,a spokesperson for the Myanmar government,on Myanmar state television MRTV on December 11,2023.“Based on the development of the conversation,there will likely be another meeting at the end of this month.”

“The conflict in northern Myanmar has been notably deescalating,which not only serves the interests of relevant parties in Myanmar but also helps ensure peace and tranquility in the China-Myanmar border area,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on December 14.“China hopes that relevant parties in Myanmar can accelerate efforts to implement what has been agreed,exercise maximum restraint,actively ease the situation on the ground,promptly manage sporadic confrontation events,and realize a soft landing of the situation in northern Myanmar together.”

Since the beginning of Operation 1027,the three ethnic minority armed groups have taken over control of multiple military posts and towns in the northern and western states of Myanmar close to the Chinese border.

“The conflict in northern Myanmar has been notably deescalating,which not only serves the interests of relevant parties in Myanmar but also helps ensure peace and tranquility in the China-Myanmar border area.”

Unusual Conflict

Leng La is a resident of Wanding,a Chinese border town across a river from northern Myanmar.Since October 27,bullets have strayed into the town from time to time,forcing the closure of local schools and the evacuation of residents away from the border.According to Leng La,although gunshots have been heard in northern Myanmar from time to time over the years,calm has usually been restored after a day or two.The scale and duration of the current conflict has been unusual for her.

At 4 a.m.on October 27,Myanmar military outposts at Lashio,Kunlong,and Chinshwehaw came under attack,including toll booths,police posts,and military restricted areas.One hour later,the MNDAA occupied the locations and announced responsibility for the operation.

The MNDAA led the Three Brotherhood Alliance in the operation.With a total force of 15,000,the objective of the operation was to combat the Myanmar military in the Kokang region and the telecom fraud gangs along the border and to regain control of the territory.

The war in northern Myanmar has spread to Mandalay,Sagaing,and Magway in central Myanmar which had been under the control of the Myanmar government forces.“The current Myanmar government is suffering its worst setback since it seized power in 2021,” commented Yang Xiangzhang,associate researcher at the Institute of Myanmar Studies of Yunnan University.

On November 23,an explosion caused a fire at the Kyin San Kyawt Truck Station in the Myanmar border town of Muse,which burned down about 120 trucks.According to Myanmar’s National Unity and Peacemaking Coordination Committee,from November 15 to 18,a control station of the Myanmar-China oil and gas pipeline near Zipin Village in Kyaukme Township of Shan State was captured by the TNLA and facilities in the control station were vandalized.

“These two incidents directly involving China’s major interests have been a wake-up call for the governments of the two countries,”said Yang Xiangzhang.“If the situation in Myanmar spins out of control,it will pose a serious threat to Chinese projects,enterprises,and personnel in Myanmar.”

Liu Jinxin,president of the Kunming South Asia & Southeast Asia International Logistics Research Institute,expressed agreement with Yang.“It’s necessary for China to closely follow the development of the situation in Myanmar,” he said.“If the situation there slips out of control,the Chinese side should be prepared to carry out overseas peacekeeping operations to ensure the safety of Chinese enterprises and personnel.”

“In the meantime,Chinese enterprises in Myanmar should work on early warning plans,improve employee awareness of the risks,and prepare emergency evacuation plans in advance,” suggested Yang.

Logistics Interruptions

After the fierce attacks,the alliance occupied essentially the whole region of Chinshwehaw,capturing military supplies on the way and interrupting supply lines for daily necessities and channels for logistics transportation.

“The alliance has not only cut off our supply of goods,but also damaged roads and blown up bridges,” said Wang Dong,a businessman involved in transportation of goods between the Chinese border town of Ruili and northern Myanmar.Now,traffic along the two main roads of Lashio-Muse and Lashio-Chinshwehaw has been completely disrupted.Goods have been diverted to ocean transportation through the Port of Yangon or transferred through Thailand with customs clearance at Myawadi.However,the cost of shipping by sea will increase by 50 percent,which is hardly affordable for small logistics companies.

The road blockade has seriously affected commercial activities and logistics in the area.Liu Jinxin said that the interruption of the main channels of China-Myanmar trade and transportation has led to rising prices and a shortage of daily living necessities in Mandalay,Yangon,Naypyidaw,and other cities in central and southern Myanmar.

Because of the conflict,logistics transportation at the Chinese land port of Ruili has been stalled.Logistics companies involved in relevant regions have issued notices of suspension of services.

Yunnan Huitong International Logistics Company posted this notice on its public WeChat account: “As of 06:00 on October 27,2023,some of the goods that have crossed the border into Myanmar cannot go any further on the roads from Lashio to Chinshwehaw and Lashio to Muse.Transportation of the goods has been stalled.We will do our best to ensure the safety of the goods while waiting for the lifting of the blockade.”

“Everything has been paused,” said Wang Dong.“Nothing has happened since October 27.All of our trucks are stuck in Ruili,and none have crossed the border ever since.” Other logistics companies involved in business in Ruili face a similar situation.All they can do is wait.

Arbitrary Checkpoints and Fees

Recovery of China-Myanmar crossborder logistics depends on how long the conflict lasts.“If the alliance can reach a ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar government,the major channels of road transportation between the two countries can be restored in three months,” predicted Liu Jinxin.

A ceasefire between relevant parties would probably help improve the China-Myanmar cross-border logistics.However,many logistics companies have logged complaints about the normal operation of the roads.

A large part of northern Myanmar has been under the control of ethnic minority armed groups which have set up checkpoints and collected fees to increase revenues.Wang Dong said that a routine truck journey from Muse to Mandalay requires the driver to pass through three checkpoints and pay fees.Without full control of northern Myanmar,the government can do nothing about it.

Senior Chinese officials expressed concerns about the situation in northern Myanmar and actively promoted peace talks based on the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of Myanmar.

“The problem of arbitrary checkpoints and fees has persisted for a long time and caused great troubles for local logistics enterprises,” said Yang Xiangzhang.“It has also posed a threat to logistics companies in terms of the costs and employee safety.”

Liu said that solving the problem is an urgent task.“It’s important to maintain the security of China-Myanmar transportation channels,” he said.“We should try to establish a dialogue and consultation mechanism with the Myanmar military and the ethnic minority armed groups on toll fees along the route to reduce costs of transportation of daily necessities for the local people and ensure the security of the goods,personnel,and channels between the two countries.”

Cross-border transportation is a professional and complex activity.Formulation of relevant standards is associated with the interests of the governments,enterprises,industries,and the people of the two countries.Liu Jinxin opined that from the perspective of the industry,it is also necessary to establish a multi-level dialogue mechanism between the government and industry.The profitseeking nature of enterprises could lead to the use of foreign forces to expand their advantages,which may inadvertently add to the cost of transportation.Therefore,the better way to manage the situation is for relevant rules to be formulated by industry organizations and supervised by the governments,which would align with international practice and regional cooperation needs.

From November 15 to 17,the fourth China-Myanmar Think Tank High-End Forum themed “Belt and Road high-quality development and building a China-Myanmar community with a shared future” was held in Mangshi,Dehong Prefecture,Yunnan Province.Liu Jinxin spoke at the forum on ways to ensure the smooth operation of the China-Myanmar land-water transportation channels.He suggested accelerating legislation on overseas activities of international security companies.

This photo taken on December 14,2023 shows a girl playing in a bomb shelter near her home amid clashes between the ethnic minority armed group Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar’s military in Namhsan Township in Myanmar’s northern Shan State.Nestled in the hills of northern Shan state,the town of Namhsan was the latest to fall to TNLA fighters after a surprise offensive was launched against Myanmar’s military in October. (VCG)

Since 2018,the Kunming South Asia & Southeast Asia International Logistics Research Institute has been working on the legislation on international security operations overseas to solve the lack of legislation in this area.Liu’s institute is currently working on the security of the China-Myanmar transportation channels and seeks provisional regulations as soon as possible.

China’s Mediation Efforts

The Shan State in northern Myanmar shares a long and curved border with south China’s Yunnan Province lacking any natural barriers in many sections.Armed conflict in northern Myanmar poses a severe threat to the peace,stability,and livelihood of the region.When Myanmar government forces fought Kokang warlord Pheung Kyashin near the border in 2015,artillery shells landed on Chinese farmland,causing casualties among local farmers.

“China is a close neighbor of Myanmar,and the security and stability of Myanmar is closely related to the major interests of China,” said Liu.“If China is assuming the responsibilities of a major country,it has an obligation to safeguard its overseas rights and interests as well as regional cooperation.”

Since the beginning of the latest conflict,China has firmly supported the peace process in the region.It has supported and facilitated dialogue and contact between relevant parties and made unremitting efforts to promote ceasefire and negotiations.

From November to December,several senior Chinese officials including State Councilor and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong,Assistant Foreign Minister Nong Rong,and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with senior leaders of the Myanmar military in quick succession.They expressed concerns about the situation in northern Myanmar and actively promoted peace talks based on the principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of Myanmar.

On December 12,the Myanmar military held talks in China with the three ethnic minority groups of MNDAA,TNLA,and AA with China mediating.There,the parties agreed on a temporary ceasefire and continued dialogue.

So far,the MNDAA has not issued an official statement,while the TNLA and AA have stated that negotiations would be conducive to a final resolution.According to plan,the Myanmar military would sit for another meeting with the alliance at the end of December.

“I hope that the Myanmar government will pay more attention to the Kokang region in the future,” said Wang.“It’s necessary to formulate some policies to ensure the security and stability of the China-Myanmar border area,especially the Kokang region.”