Breach a Critical Warming Threshold 全球变暖或超临界点

世界氣象组织的年度报告称，在温室效应和厄尔尼诺现象的共同作用下，地球可能在未来五年内首次突破较工业化前水平升高1.5 ℃的临界点。

The world is now likely to breach a key climate 1）threshold for thefirst time within the next five years， according to the World MeteorologicalOrganization（WMO）， due to a combination of heat-trapping pollution anda 2）looming El Ni?o.

Global temperatures have 3）soared in recent years as the worldcontinues to burn planet-warming fossil fuels like coal， oil and gas. And thattrend shows no sign of slowing. In its annual climate update， the WMO saidthat between 2023 and 2027， there is now a 66% chance that the planetstemperatures will climb above 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above preindustriallevels for at least one year.

As temperatures surge， there is also a 98% 4）likelihood that at least oneof the next five years — and the five-year period as a whole — will be thewarmest on record for the planet， the WMO reported.

Breaching the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold may only be temporary，the WMO said， but it would be the clearest signal yet of how quickly climatechange is accelerating — hastening sea level rise，more extreme weather and the demise of vitalecosystems.

Countries pledged in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2degrees Celsius — and preferably to 1.5degrees Celsius — compared to preindustrialtemperatures. Scientists consider1.5 degrees Celsius of warming as akey tipping point， beyond which the chances of extreme flooding， drought，wildfires and food shortages could increase dramatically.

The temperature increases are fueled by the rise of planet-heatingpollution from burning fossil fuels， as well as the predicted arrival of El Ni?o，a natural climate phenomenon with a global heating effect.

The current hottest year on record is 2016， which followed a very strongEl Ni?o event. El Ni?o tends to ramp up the temperatures the year after itdevelops， which could put 2024 on track to be the hottest year on record.

Scientists have long warned that the world needs to stay within 1.5degrees Celsius of warming to avoid 5）catastrophic and potentially6）irreversible changes.

Warming above this point increases the risk of triggering major tippingpoints， including the death of coral reefs and the melting of polar ice sheets，which will add to sea level rise， devastatingcoastal communities.

Temperature rises also increase thefrequency and intensity of extreme weatherevents including droughts， storms， wildfiresand heatwaves.

1） threshold n. 起点；开端

2） loom v. 逐渐逼近

3） soar v. 猛增；高飞

4） likelihood n. 可能性

5） catastrophic adj. 灾难性的

6） irreversible adj. 无法复原的

世界气象组织称，在温室效应和即将发生的厄尔尼诺现象的共同作用下，地球可能在未来五年内首次突破一个关键的气候临界点。

由于世界继续燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气等化石燃料，全球气温近年来大幅上升，而且这一趋势没有变缓的迹象。世界气象组织在其最新的年度气候报告中指出，2023 年至2027 年间至少一年有66% 的概率——全球气温会比工业化前的水平升高1.5 ℃。

世界气象组织报告称，随着气温上升，未来五年中至少一年有98% 的概率会成为地球史上最热的年份，未来五年也会成为有史以来最热的五年。

世界气象组织称，打破1.5 ℃的临界点可能只是暂时的，但这是气候变化加速最明确的信号，气候变化会加速海平面上升，导致更多极端天气和重要生态系统的瓦解。

各缔约国曾在《巴黎协定》中承诺，将全球变暖限制在比工业化前水平升高2 ℃以内，最好是限制在1.5 ℃以内。科学家认为1.5 ℃是一个关键临界点，超过1.5 ℃后特大洪灾、干旱、森林火灾和食物短缺发生的概率都会大增。

全球气温上升源于燃烧化石燃料导致的温室效应以及预计会出现的厄尔尼诺现象，这种自然气候现象会导致全球变暖。

当前史上最热年份是2016 年，就是伴随强厄尔尼诺现象而来的。厄尔尼诺现象会推高来年的气温，这可能会使2024 年成为有史以来最热的年份。

长久以来，科学家一直警告称，全球变暖必须控制在1.5 ℃以内，以避免災难性和潜在不可逆转的变化。

全球变暖超过1.5 ℃会增加多个重要临界点被触发的风险，包括珊瑚礁死亡和极地冰原融化，这会使海平面升高，给海岸居民带来毁灭性后果。

气温升高还会增加包括干旱、暴风雨、森林火灾和热浪在内的极端天气的频率和强度。

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厄尔尼诺是发生在热带太平洋海温异常增暖的一种气候现象，大范围热带太平洋增暖，会造成全球气候的变化，但这个状态要维持3 个月以上，才认定是真正发生了厄尔尼诺事件。