Journal of Economics of Water Resources

Vol.41No.4Jul30th2023

Researchoncarbonembodiedintradeandlow-carbontradecompetitivenessofChina’smanufacturingindustry/SHI Anna1,2, LU Yao1,2(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Taking China’s manufacturing and high-carbon sectors as the research industry, this paper uses the value added accounting method to measure carbon productivity embodied in export, and analyzes the low-carbon trade competitiveness of China. Based on the STIRPAT model, this paper also analyzes the factors of low-carbon trade competitiveness from the aspects of technology and structure, and predicts the low-carbon trade competitiveness in 2021—2030 under five scenarios, including low-carbon technology scenario, export structure optimization scenario and green energy structure scenario. Results show that: The increase of China’s export will intensify the pressure of domestic emission reduction, and more than 90% of the carbon embodied in export remains in China. Energy utilization efficiency is the primary factor of the low-carbon trade competitiveness of manufacturing industry, and energy consumption structure has greater impact on high-carbon sectors. According to the historical trend, the carbon productivity embodied in export of manufacturing industry in 2030 is slightly lower than that of EU in 1995, and the low-carbon trade competitiveness is low. According to the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the carbon productivity embodied in export of manufacturing industry in 2030 will reach the level of the EU in 2003, and that of the non-metallic sector will exceed the level of the EU in 2018.

Keywords: carbon embodied in trade; low-carbon trade competitiveness; high-carbon manufacturing sector; carbon tariff

ResearchonregionaldevelopmentpathbasedonWODmodel/WANG Xiaona, QIAO Genping, WANG Yajie(Development Research Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract: Based on the study of Water-Oriented Development model, this paper discusses the Water-Oriented Development model, and puts forward the concept of Water-Oriented Development (WOD), that is, the regional comprehensive development model oriented to the development, utilization and protection of water resources. This paper analyzes its connotation and typical characteristics, carries out feasibility analysis, probes into the implementation path of WOD, and proposes relevant suggestions. Under the guidance of adhering to the“Maximum rigid constraint of water resources” and the concept of regional sustainable development, we should popularize and practice the WOD model in time, it is suggested that the comprehensive management of water environment and the comprehensive development and utilization of water resources should be taken as the leading factors and primary tasks for the green development of water-related areas, which is a beneficial exploration for the realization of the value of water ecological products, it also provides a new idea for realizing the harmonious unification of regional economic development and natural environment.

Keywords: Transit-Oriented Development(TOD) model; Environment-Oriented Development (EOD)model; Water-Oriented Development (WOD) model; oriented; water resources; ecological value

Analysisonthesub-optimalallocationandcausesofriverbasinwaterenvironmentcomprehensivetreatmentPPPproject/GUO Lidan1,2,3, ZHAO Jin1,4, HUANG Yaping5(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.International River Research Centre, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 3.Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China; 4.Management and Economics College, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; 5.Law School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The comprehensive treatment of water environment in river basin PPP project is an important starting point for China to carry out water environment management. Such projects have large investment and strong systematicness, so reasonable risk sharing between government and social capital it is very important. This paper focuses on the risk allocation issues between the public sector and the social capital for the PPP project of comprehensive management of water environment in river basin. Firstly, the risk sharing factors of such projects are identified through literature statistics, and then the current situation of risk sharing is analyzed through expert questionnaire survey. Finally, the cause mechanism of sub-optimal allocation is discussed based on game theory and relevant suggestions are put forward. The results show that there is a phenomenon of sub-optimal risk allocation in the practice of the comprehensive management of water environment in river basin PPP projects. The proportion of risks borne by the government is low, especially the two most important risks, namely, the cost payment and the degree of project demand, but the risk allocation is extremely unreasonable. The mismatch between the negotiation status and the risk bearing capacity of both parties will lead to the phenomenon of sub-optimal distribution, and the information asymmetry aggravates the non-cooperative game between the two parties under the conflict of interest.

Keywords: PPP project; risk sharing; comprehensive management of water environment in river basin; risk sub-optimal allocation

ThegamestrategyandsimulationofthedevelopmentandutilizationoftheXijiangRiverBasin/ZHANG Zuominyang1,2, FENG Bao1, LING Jing3(1.Economics School, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China; 2.Graduate School, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530003, China; 3.Agricultural Development Bank of China, Nanning 530027, China)

Abstract: In view of the negative ecological civilization problems brought about by economic development, such as the reduction of water source forest area, serious soil erosion, resettlement, and serious water pollution during the development of the Xijiang River Basin, this paper uses the evolutionary game method to explore the strategy and equilibrium of governance of the Xijiang River Basin between the Guangxi government and the Guangdong government. The research results show that under traditional circumstances, the game system of the two governments will evolve towards an inferior stable state (over-exploitation, unreasonable acceleration), which is not conducive to the green and sustainable development of the ecology of the Xijiang River Basin; There are 9 evolutionary scenarios in the game system when punished by “development” and “unreasonable acceleration” by the Guangdong government. If and only when specific conditions are met, the system will converge to the Pareto optimal state of (moderate development, reasonable acceleration); According to the penalty value, 9 different scenarios are designed to analyze the game results of the penalty value pair. Numerical simulations show that when the central government and the higher-level relevant departments give higher accountability and punishment to the two governments, the game system will move towards the Pareto optimal state; Therefore, in order to promote the balanced development of eco-economic development and governance in the Xijiang River Basin, in the design of the accountability mechanism, it is necessary to give the two governments a higher penalty value that meets the corresponding conditions.

Keywords: Xijiang River Basin; ecological governance; evolutionary game; numerical simulation; accountability mechanism; Guangdong; Guangxi

Studyonbehaviorstrategyofwaterpricestakeholdersinwatertransferproject/YUAN Ruhua1,2, SUN Yuxin1,2(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Water Conservancy Economics Institute, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Under the background of deepening price mechanism reform, water price stakeholders of water transfer projects are increasing. In order to analyze the water price of Water Diversion Project from the Three Gorges Reservoir to the Hanjiang River (WDTGH) from the perspective of stakeholders, based on the analysis of the interest demands of relevant stakeholders of water transfer project price, the evolutionary game model is used to discuss the optimal strategy and influencing factors of water transfer project price. The results show that the greater the benefits of the government’s active regulation, the higher the policy subsidies social capital will get, and the greater the additional benefits of the cooperation between social capital and water users, the more conducive the stable strategy of the evolutionary game will converge towards the direction of the government’s active regulation, social capital’s active efforts and water users’ participation. Therefore, we should make both efforts, actively carry out water price reform of water transfer projects, determine reasonable return on investment, encourage social capital to cooperate with water users to negotiate pricing and other ways to form water prices, and establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism of water prices, in order to formulate scientific and reasonable water price of WDTGH.

Keywords: water diversion project; water price; stakeholder; evolutionary game; WDTGH

Researchonthemechanismofstakeholders’influenceonagriculturalwaterprice/FENG Xin1,2, JIANG Wenlai1, LIU Yang1( 1.Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2.Apicultural Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100093, China)

Abstract: There are many stakeholders involved in the comprehensive reform of agricultural water prices, but the policy deviates from their interests, which is the key issue that hinders the progress of the reform. Through stakeholder theory analysis, a theoretical system of agricultural water price stakeholder research is initially established in the paper. The classification, interest relations and interest demands of agricultural water price stakeholders are clarified separately, and the mechanism of stakeholders’ influence on agricultural water price is sorted out clearly. At the same time, we also use the “Mitchell” scale and the expert scoring method to quantitatively assess the interests of each party in the reform. The results of the study showed that: Agricultural water price stakeholders have different interests and demands, and coordinating their interests is conducive to breaking through the dilemma of reform; The results of the benefit evaluation are expressed as “Government >Farmers >Social institutions”, “Suppliers >Users >Support and guarantee parties”, so the main responsibility of governments should be emphasized in the reform; In order to guide farmers, farmers’ water associations and social institutions to participate and cooperate in the reform, the government should provide reasonable policy support and publicity guidance.

Keywords: agricultural water price; stakeholder; interest relationship; interest appeal; influence mechanism

Studyoncostaccountingsystemoftransregionalwatertransfer/LU Lirong, LIU Weidong, YAO Lihua, ZHANG Xiaohu(Hebei Institute of Investigation and Design of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Co., Ltd., Tianjing 300221, China)

Abstract: After the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project was officially put into operation, it effectively alleviated the shortage of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-North China. It has become an indispensable main water source in the receiving area. The South-to-North Water Transfer Project is a single-line water transmission, and many uncertain factors may cause water transmission interruption. In order to improve the water supply guarantee of the South-to-North Water Transfer Middle Line Phase I Project, it is very necessary to carry out the emergency water supply research of the built reservoirs along the main canal connection. If the emergency water supply of the reservoir is transferred across regions, the water supply cost needs to be calculated. On the basis of determining the technical scheme of the connection between the reservoir and the main channel, this paper establishes a cross-regional transfer water supply cost model for the emergency water supply of the reservoir, and proposes a multi-source and multi-objective cost water price accounting system. The cost of emergency storage and water supply of the built reservoir includes the comprehensive cost of the raw water of the built reservoir, the cost of the interconnection project, and the cost of water transmission in the main channel section. Among them, the comprehensive cost of raw water for reservoir water supply is divided into two parts: the cost of raw water production of the built reservoir and the compensation for agricultural water consumption; The cost of the Unicom project can be accounted for separately according to three different schemes: no depreciation, depreciation by year and depreciation by time; The water delivery cost of the main channel section is calculated by the water price measured at the water supply target gate and the water price measured at the main channel gate of the reservoir. When multiple reservoirs supply water jointly, the water supply cost is calculated comprehensively and weighted. Research has shown that, without considering depreciation, the raw water cost of each reservoir ranges from 0.02 to 0.44 Yuan/m3, the cost of interconnecting projects ranges from 0.04 to 2.17 Yuan/m3, and the comprehensive water supply cost of multi water source joint scheduling for different water users ranges from 0.60 to 1.71 Yuan/m3. This article analyzes the cost water prices of different schemes based on typical examples, providing a reference basis for calculating the cost water prices of multi source and multi-objective emergency water supply.

Keywords: South-to-North water transfer; built reservoir; emergency storage; regional transfer; cost accounting

Researchonthemodernizationconstructionofwaterrighttransactionmechanismbasedonperspectiveofgreenfinance/CHEN Bo, ZENG Peiming (Accounting School, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149, China)

Abstract: The construction of water rights trading is an important water resource management measure to improve the scarcity of water resources and enhance the efficiency of water resource utilization. Exploring the modernization of water rights trading mechanisms from the perspective of green finance and promoting the deepening application of green finance in the water field is a new approach to solve the problems of water rights trading. Based on the current development status and characteristics of green finance, this paper analyzes the current situation and problems of water rights trading in China; based on the problems, we will construct the conception of green finance supporting the modernization of water rights trading mechanisms, including mechanism of action, system design, and implementation path. This conception is supported by three mechanisms including financial support, technological innovation, and strict supervision. It designs a project operation system, and explore four paths to implement green finance to support water rights trading including strengthening top-level design, expanding financing channels, assisting market construction and strengthening risk control supervision. The results of research indicate that there are problems in China's water rights trading construction currently, such as incomplete top-level design, difficulty in project financing, incomplete market mechanisms and lax supervision. The functional advantages of green finance are needed to assist in solving the difficulties in the development of water rights trading.In detail, green finance alleviates the situation of the difficulties in financing, imperfect market construction and weak supervision through funding support channels, technological innovation channels and strict supervision channels.

Keywords: finance support; mechanism of water right transaction; market of water right; modernization construction

ResearchonLakechiefsysteminTaihubasinfromtheperspectiveofregionalcollaborativegovernance/LI Feng, FENG Wenjing (Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: In Taihu Basin, China’s first trans-boundary regional lake chief cooperation mechanism has been established. The trans-boundary governance problem of the basin is a typical regional overall management problem, and it is also a significant point for the balanced development of social economy and ecological environment within the administrative scope of the basin. The improvement of trans-boundary lake chief system is an important guarantee for the social development and construction within the basin. The intrinsic mechanism is studied through the attribution analysis of the multi-player game between lake chief and enterprises, intra-regional lake chief and inter-regional lake chief to the governance dilemma of Taihu Lake. It is found that the internal cause of the problems of the lake chief system in Taihu Basin lies in the interest correlation of rational economic man, and a win-win situation can be achieved through external elements. By referring to matrix organization framework and integrating the hierarchical system of lake chiefs and the synergy theory of each region in the basin, a multi-dimensional framework of regional collaborative governance in Taihu Basin is constructed. It includes the multi-dimensional role of multiple subjects of “government + enterprise + social organization + public”. Based on the framework of regional collaborative governance, the following suggestions and conclusions are put forward. From the perspective of the government, the division of power and responsibility should be clarified to improve the evaluation system. From the perspective of enterprises, ecological compensation should be optimized, and technological innovation should be strengthened. From the perspective of social organization, more scientific research joint projects should be carried out, and theoretical penetration should be strengthened. From the point of view of the public, more people are encouraged to participate in governance, and the feedback effect should be strengthened.

Keywords: transboundary watershed governance; lake length system; regional cooperative governance; dynamic evolutionary game

Discussionsonriverchiefsystemandgreentransformationofheavypollutingenterprises/ZHANG Ying1, SHEN Qirong1, LIU Xiaotian2(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Business School, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4702, Queensland)

Abstract: Based on the data of China’s heavily polluting listed enterprises from 2008 to 2019 and manually compiled data on the evolution of the river chief system, we use the double difference method to identify the policy impact of the river chief system on the green transformation. The empirical results show that, under the influence of environmental regulatory pressure caused by river chief system, heavy polluting enterprises are more inclined to adopt external acquisition strategy of green M&A rather than internal R&D strategy of green technology innovation to achieve green transformation. Further research shows that this phenomenon is more obvious when heavy polluting enterprises face greater media pressure or environmental uncertainty is low. The mechanism test shows that local governments may promote enterprises to make green transformation by tightening environmental regulations. Local governments should set clear targets for environmental control and urge heavily polluting enterprises to save energy and reduce emissions through institutional support and pressure, so as to alleviate pollution from the source.

Keywords: river chief system; heavy pollution enterprises; green transformation; green technology innovation; green merger and acquisition

Therealizationpathandcountermeasuresfortheimplementationofthetwinwatertechnology-enabledriverchiefsystem/WANG Xiaoying1, KONG Qianhui1, DAI Mengyuan2, 4, ZHAO Peipei3, FENG Chen1(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Management and Economics Department, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; 3.Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; 4.Yancheng Institute of Green and Low-carbon Development, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224051, China)

Abstract: As an innovative measure of ecological civilization system reform, the river chief system has gradually become a key work in building happy rivers and lakes and helping the high-quality development of water conservancy in the new stage. However, in practice, the implementation effect of the river chief system is not good because of the lack of performance of the functions of the river chief, the lack of collaborative governance mechanism and the low participation of the public. Based on the systematic review and summary of the existing theoretical research and practical experience, this paper discusses the synergistic effect of digital twin technology in the innovation of river chief system management mechanism and possible problems and challenges, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. Digital twin technology can play a synergistic role with the river chief system in professional knowledge, rapid response, collaborative cooperation, public participation and multiple linkage, and provide solutions to the existing problems of the river chief system. In order to establish a digital twin system more suitable for the work of river chief system, it is necessary to get comprehensive support such as perfect data management system, research and development fund investment, balanced human-machine relationship, open digital twin public service platform, etc., so as to fully empower the development of river chief system.

Keywords: river chief system; digital twin; water business; man-machine relationship

Post-disasterregionaleconomicsimulationandreconstructionfundallocationbasedonARIO:acasestudyofflooddisasterinHubeiprovincein2016/LIU Gaofeng1,2, NING Siyu1,2, WANG Huimin1,2(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Management Science Institute, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Allocation of reconstruction funds among various industrial sectors affects regional disaster economic recovery capacity. In this study, a post-disaster economic recovery simulation model based on Adaptive Regional Input Output Model (ARIO) was established. And then three reconstruction funds allocation plans were set: “balanced investment”, “high-contribution industry priority”, and “disaster damage and high contribution industry combined”. Finally, Hubei province was taken as an example, and the economic recovery period after flood disaster in 2016 was simulated. The results show that: After disaster, the production added value is reduced, the investment of the reconstruction fund make the production return back to pre-disaster level, and then the production continues to increase until the demand for reconstruction is completely satisfied, finally, the production is gradually declined, the economy is returned to the pre-disaster equilibrium. Post-disaster economic recovery time and reconstruction funds are index relationship, and the recovery time of floods is constantly shortened with increased increasing funds after the disaster, but the rate of economic recovery time is decreasing. The reconstruction fund should first used to compensate for the economic losses caused by disasters, and then allocate fund to high-contribution industries, which can improve post-disaster reconstruction efficiency under the premise of protecting people’s livelihood.

Keyword: reginal economy; adaptive regional input output model; post-disaster reconstruction; allocation; recovery period

ResearchoneconomiclossassessmentofsupplychaindisruptionunderflooddisasterbasedonimprovedDIIM/WANG Ting1, QIU Lei1, WANG Zhiqiang2, ZHI Yanling3(1.Management Science Institute, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Information Management and Artificial Intelligence College, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310058, China; 3.Business School, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China)

Abstract: In recent years, heavy rain and flood disasters occur frequently, which seriously hinders the operation of the supply chain system and causes huge economic losses. In this paper, the correlation characteristics of supply chain nodes are evaluated by the improved grey fuzzy OWA (Ordered Weighted Averaging) operator method. Then, the dynamic inoperable input-output model (DIIM) is used to simulate the time-dependent inoperable operation state of supply chain system under the influence of flood. On this basis, a case study was carried out on the manufacturing supply chain system affected by floods in Malaysia in 2021. Four indexes related to flood disasters and enterprise attributes were extracted to evaluate the disruption losses of the supply chain system. The results show that the function decline of each node of the supply chain caused by flood is affected by the interference of both the demand side and the supply side, and both the inoperability and the loss are a dynamic process. The simulation data intuitively showed the occurrence, diffusion and recovery process of supply chain disruption under floods. Therefore, it is convenient for decision makers to analyze and manage flood events and supply chain system operation.

Keywords: food disaster; supply chain disruption; dynamic inoperability input-output model; loss assessment

Researchontheevolutionofnetworkpublicopinionofextremerainstormdisastereventsfromtheperspectiveofdifferentsubjects/HUANG Jing1,2, WU Xingyan1,2, LI Menghan1,2(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Management Science Institute, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: In order to accurately grasp the general law of the evolution of public opinion in extreme rainstorm disaster events, and to explore the evolution characteristics of public opinion of the government, the media, Opinion leader and Internet users in extreme rainstorm disaster events, a topic evolution model based on the co-word network and an emotion analysis model based on the emotion dictionary were constructed. Taking the April 11, 2019 rainstorm in Shenzhen as an example, the change process and differences of different subjects’ concerns, emotional attitudes, etc. were analyzed, Put forward management and control strategies for network public opinion in response to extreme rainstorm disaster events. Research has found that the four types of subjects have different focuses and significant differences in emotional attitudes; With the development of extreme rainstorm disaster, the attention content and emotional attitude of all subjects are constantly changing. Except the government, the attention of the other three types of subjects lags behind the development of the event itself. Negative emotions are mainly concentrated in the early warning period and emergency period, and then gradually tend to be neutral; The four types of subjects interact with each other. The government plays a leading role in the evolution of public opinion. The media is the follower of the government, and Opinion leader are more sensitive to the topics concerned by netizens. Finally, from the aspects of public opinion monitoring, public opinion guidance, information disclosure, response facilitation and so on, the network public opinion management and control strategy for extreme rainstorm disaster events is proposed.

Keywords: urban rainstorm; social media; co-word network; evolution of public opinion; public opinion subject; “4·11”Shenzhen Rainstorm