An Analysis of the Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on China-US Relations

At the end of February 2022, Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict that ensued has shaken the world. The outbreak of this conflict, with a profound historical origination and driven by the geopolitical and strategic game of major countries, has brought a significant impact on the Eurasian continent and the international order. Although China is not a party of the conflict, it will have a profound and complicated impact on China-US relations.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made it clear he wants Russia to be weakened. Russia’s national strength will be undercut by the conflict. The formation of the Western anti-Russia alliance will cause Russia to suffer lasting strategic isolation. The deep goal of the US “maximum weakening” of Russia is to hit the China-Russia strategic partnership, and the US will focus more on suppressing China, its No. 1 rival. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to major changes in the military and security policies of many European countries. There could be a strategic division of labor between the US and Europe, with European countries taking on more responsibility for dealing with Russia and the US focusing on countering China. The US is likely to use its security offer to pressure European countries to follow US policy more closely on China.

Undoubtedly, under the dual impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the continued COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain security has received greater attention from all countries around the world, and value barrier has played a more prominent role in global economic relations. The US will take advantage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to promote “club-style globalization”, urge relevant countries to reduce their economic dependence on China, and accelerate the establishment of an “economic war” system against China. It is worth noting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has put the UN system under unprecedented pressure, and the US is also trying to exclude Russia from the G20. A new round of global arms race is on, and it is becoming difficult to manage the risk of nuclear conflict. Efforts by China, the US and other major countries to build global governance rules around the weaponization of artificial intelligence (AI), space security and other issues will be bogged down.

Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict has affected the Biden administration’s implementation of the Indo-Pacific strategy, it can hardly change the determination of the US to focus on the Indo-Pacific and suppress China. As Richard Fontaine, president of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), puts it, the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be bad in the short term for America’s pivot towards the Indo-Pacific, but good in the long run. The Biden administration seeks to forge a new architecture of alliance against China by deeply integrating US treaty allies and security partners in the region. The US will take advantage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to further hype up the threat posed by the “quasi-alliance” between China and Russia, and encourage its allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific to step up military buildup and exert greater pressures as an alliance on China.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US has shown its “determination” to accelerate the implementation of its Indo-Pacific strategy. The Biden administration has been engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activities in the Indo-Pacific direction, including holding a special US-ASEAN summit in early May. In the same month, President Biden also visited South Korea and Japan, and attended the second offline summit of the QUAD in Tokyo. In a strong reaction to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan decided to increase military spending and seek stronger offensive military capabilities. The USJapan alliance will be significantly strengthened. In addition, Japan, Australia, Britain and other countries are speeding up the construction of “quasi-alliance” relations, and Japan will play a bigger role in the US Asia-Pacific alliance system. The new South Korean government of Yoon Seok-youl is also taking a hard line policy on China, and Seoul is likely to tilt further toward the United States. Moreover, the US is also pushing for greater involvement of the EU and NATO in the Indo-Pacific affairs to increase Washington’s leverage over China.

More importantly, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have a profound impact on the game between China and the US over the Taiwan issue, and the US will have a stronger motivation to move toward “strategic clarity” in its Taiwan policy. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has threatened to impose sanctions on Beijing similar to those imposed on Russia if China uses force against Taiwan. Members of the US Congress have also introduced a series of bills related to the “defense of Taiwan”, and the Biden administration has shown political support for Taiwan by sending delegations to the island. The US has also stepped up efforts to strengthen its military ties with Taiwan, including boosting the island’s “asymmetric warfare capabilities”, providing special operations training for Taiwanese soldiers, and inviting Taiwan to various USled military exercises.

In addition, the Biden administration has sought to elevate Taiwan’s role in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. As Taiwan plays an important role in the digital economy and high-tech fields such as chip industry, the US hopes Taiwan will further deepen cooperation with Japan, South Korea, India and other countries. Over 200 members of the US Congress from both the Republican and the Democrat have called the Biden administration to include Taiwan in the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” promoted by the United States. Given the great flexibility of the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework”, the US may allow Taiwan authorities to participate in some multilateral cooperation, such as the digital economy. In terms of ideology, the US and Taiwan have tried to use mechanisms such as the Cooperation and Training Framework to play up conflict of values and enhance the awareness of the so-called “China threat” among countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

(The author is Senior Research Fellow at the Center for American Studies, Fudan University and Guest Research Fellow at the Institute of International Strategic Studies, Peking University. This article was received on May 11, 2022.)