Q1—Q3 Recovery Backed By Online Sales

苏珊

Chinas consumption market saw steady recovery in the first three quarters， with online sales driving growth and providing economic momentum.

In the January-September period， the contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 41.3 percent， driving GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points. In the third quarter， Chinas final consumption expenditure contributed 52.4 percent to economic growth， driving GDP growth by 2.1 percentage points， the National Bureau of Statistics said on October 24.

In the first nine months， online sales nationwide increased steadily and reached 9.59 trillion yuan， up 4 percent year-on-year. Among them， online retail sales of physical goods reached 8.24 trillion yuan， up 6.1 percent year-onyear， the NBS said.

“E-commerce has further demonstrated its role in driving consumption growth. Retail business at brick-and-mortar stores has also gradually improved， and sales of basic living goods have seen booming growth. In addition， demand for green consumption has continued to grow， and sales in rural markets recovered well，”said Dong Lihua， director of the Trade and Economic Department at the NBS.

“In the first three quarters， all departments effectively coordinated COVID- 19 pandemic prevention and control measures along with economic and social development. They actively implemented a series of consumption promotion policies， and the consumer market maintained a recovery trend，”Dong said.

Despite sporadic resurgences of COVID-19 cases， the consumption market has recovered， albeit with fluctuations. In April， the level of total retail sales of consumer goods reached a low point， and it began to grow again since June. In September， the number increased by 2.5 percent year-onyear， which was 2.9 percentage points lower than the growth rate inAugust， the NBS said.

In the January-September period， total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 32.03 trillion yuan， up 0.7 percent year-on-year， reversing the downward trend in the first half， when the number fell 0.7 percent year-on-year， the NBS said.

In the second quarter， the pandemic caused some restrictions on household consumption of goods and services， but the negative impact weakened in the third quarter. Meanwhile， the state of employment improved in the third quarter， enhancing consumer confidence， said Wang Qing， chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International.

In addition， from June 1， the government has halved car purchase taxes for passenger vehicles that cost less than 300，000 yuan each and have engine capacities of two liters or lower. The stimulus measure has taken effect and spurred consumption， Wang said.

With the upcoming Singles Day shopping festival culminating on Nov 11， e-commerce shopping is expected to further drive consumption growth.

“Due to the pandemic， e-commerce shopping through channels such as livestreaming sessions and group purchases have served as important platforms， and online shopping has become a new engine to drive consumption growth，”said Hou Yunchun， president of the China Enterprise EvaluationAssociation.

中国前三季度消费市场稳步复苏，线上消费推动增长，为经济提供动力。

国家统计局10月24日公布的数据显示，前三季度，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为41.3%，拉动GDP增长1.2个百分点。其中，三季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为52.4%，拉动GDP增长2.1个百分点。

统计局数据显示，1至9月份，全国网上零售额稳步增长，达到近9.59万亿元，同比增长4.0%。其中，实物商品网上零售额8.24万亿元，增长6.1%。

國家统计局贸易外经司司长董礼华发文称，线上消费对消费市场的拉动作用进一步显现，实体零售逐步改善，基本生活类商品销售增势良好，绿色升级类消费需求持续释放，乡村市场销售恢复较好。

董礼华表示，前三季度，各地区各部门高效统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展，积极推动一系列促消费政策落地显效，消费市场总体保持恢复增长态势。

今年以来，受疫情多点散发影响，消费市场在波动中恢复。4月份消费市场降至低点，6月份后恢复增长。9月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.5%，增速比8月份回落2.9个百分点。

前三季度，社会消费品零售总额32.03万亿元，同比增长0.7%。今年上半年，社会消费品零售总额同比下降0.7%。

东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司首席宏观分析师王青表示，今年第二季度，新冠疫情对家庭商品和服务消费造成了一些限制，但这种负面影响在第三季度有所减弱。与此同时，第三季度就业状况有所改善，增强了消费者的信心。

王青表示，政府对购置日期在2022年6月1日至2022年12月31日期间内且单车价格（不含增值税）不超过30万元的2.0升及以下排量乘用车，减半征收车辆购置税。这种刺激措施已经见效，刺激了汽车消费。

随着即将到来的双十一购物节在11月11日达到高潮，线上消费有望进一步推动消费增长。

中国企业评价协会会长侯云春说：“受新冠疫情影响，通过直播、团购等渠道的电商购物成为重要平台，网络销售已成为推动经济增长的新引擎。”