基于经济景气指数的长三角地区经济运行分析与预测

赵天翊 胡煜 张庆芝

【摘  要】长三角地区作为我国经济最发达的地区，其经济运行状态对于全国的经济发展都有着重要的影响。论文基于2013—2019年的季度数据，为长三角地区构建了经济景气指数，并通过计算绝对值和同比值两种指标的一致合成指数和先行合成指数，探讨各指数动态变化的内在原因并对未来的经济运行进行预测，为长三角一体化发展提供决策支持。

【Abstract】As the most developed region of China， the economic operation state of the Yangtze River Delta region has an important impact on the economic development of the whole country. Based on the quarterly data of 2013—2019， this paper constructs the economic prosperity index for the Yangtze River Delta region. Through calculating the consistent composite index and the first composite index of absolute value and year-on-year value， this paper discusses the internal causes of the dynamic changes of each index and forecasts the future economic operation， so as to provide decision support for the integration development of Yangtze River Delta.

【关键词】经济景气指数;长三角;一致指数;先行指数

【Keywords】economic climate index; Yangtze River Delta; consistent index; leading index

【中圖分类号】 F49                               【文献标志码】A                                   【文章编号】1673-1069（2020）06-0048-02