非洲青年潮：比尔·盖茨最担心的事情

Vicky

The worrying African youth boom

What worries Bill Gates most？ Thebooming population of Africa looms over hisfoundation's latest global survey. By the end ofthis century there will be 4 billion more peopleon Earth-and 3 billion of these extra souls willbe born in Africa. The challenge，he says，is that“Africa must almost quadruple its agriculturalproductivity to feed itself. That's very daunting. '

The philanthropist is torn between sendingout a message of hope and a message of fearwhen I meet him at his foundation's spaciouscampus in the heart of his hometown，Seattle.

He is reaching for what works best torevive the West's faltering conscience in theface of“Americafirst”nationalismand rising pull-up-the-drawbridge populismin Europe. The spirit of generosity is underassault as government aid budgets come underconstant sniper fire from right-wing politiciansand their media.

Half of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundationspending goes to Africa. The funds put intothe foundation by themselves and fellow philanthropist Warren Buffett now amount tomore than than $50bn. Until last year Gates，theMicrosoft founder，was the world's richest man. He has now been overtaken by Amazon's JeffBezos.

The foundation's report bursts withremarkable data-too few people know aboutthe galloping progress of humankind. Take India，where only 18 years ago almost one in fivechildren were not enrolled in primary school-now，97% attend classes. Look at the indicatorson the report's global scorecard for the UNssustainable development goals for 2030，andmost things are improving almost everywhere. But there is a marked variation in the futuretrajectory： progress depends on the level offuture investment.

Today，the West takes some persuadingthat things are getting better，especially inEurope where countries like Britain havesuffered a decade of falling real living standardsand eye-watering austerity. The upbeat messageof Gates-as well as those in his late friendHans Rosling's book Factfulness，and StevenPinker's Enlightenment Now-telling us most ofthe world is on an unprecedented upswing，jarswith our reality. Yet it is so： the world has neverseen such a rapid rise in prosperity among mostof the poor.

Eager to encourage Western countriesto keep giving aid，Gates is well aware thatBritain-as elsewhere-suffers frequent politicalattacks on its aid budget. The UK，Sweden andNorway are among the few reaching the UNaid spending target of 0. 7% of gross nationalincome，and all feel the cold blast of an anti-foreigner political grudge. “If you are saving livesfor a very small amount of money，people shouldfeel good about that，" Gates says emphatically，protesting at current cynicism about internationalaid organisations. Look what can be done，hekeeps saying，pointing as an example to thebrilliant education system in Vietnam，a poorcountry whose results outstrip far richer ones.

If Britain needs encouragement，he says，“the data about the impact has been amazing. The UK has been very generous to the vaccinefund，for two vaccins—one for pneumonia，one for diarrhoea. " These sicknesses are nowpreventable“at extremely low cost to all thechildren of the world. The UK led that effort andsaved over 10 million lives". Do people acrossthe UK know that？ He admits a failure to spreadthe good news. “We' re being challenged toexplain. " Everyone should know this message ofhope. “We're talking about uplifting the humancondition in a fairly dramatic way. "

But if hope doesn't beat the new nativisminfecting the Western world，then fear is Gates ammunition of last resort. lgnore Africa at yourperil. “The stability of Africa makes a huge difference to the entire world. " Here come thethreats：“A pandemic like Ebola can spread veryfast，" he warns，and many others spread evenfaster if there are no local health services tocontain them.

Migration is the other threat to touchEurope's politics. Syria was a small country，he reminds us，yet its civil war exodus has“challenged the asylum system". But watch outbecause“Africa is another order of magnitude' . The huge African youth boom is a strong themein the report，where in a world of ageing and shrinking populations，Africa's demographicbulge could be an asset or a threat. So itwould be wise“to make their lives attractive"not just out of“pure human caring". Invest inAfrica's young，their human capital，health andeducation，support more productive agriculture，protect subsistence farmers against climatechange and see how self-interest blends withgood works.

Africa，he always stresses，is not onecountry. Of its 54 nations，many are leapingahead，Ghana，Botswana and Rwandaamong them. Those causing concern are theDemocratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria.

On his recent visit he warnedNigerians against the countrysgrowing inequality，where oilwealth for a few is leavingmillions behind. The foundationhas spent $1bn so far on Nigeria. He says，“Their health system isworse than poorer countries，theiragricultural advice largely brokendown. " Government resourcesare low because“their level oftaxation is one of the lowest inthe world".

比爾·盖茨最担心的是什么？在他的基金会最新的全球调查中，非洲人口的迅速增长成为一个隐忧。到本世纪末，地球上的人口将增加40亿，其中30亿人将在非洲出生。他表示，挑战在于“非洲必须将农业产能提高近四倍，才能养活自己。这是非常艰巨的。”

当我在他的基金会，位于他家乡西雅图中心地带的宽敞校园里见到这位慈善家时，他既表达了希望，又表达了恐惧。

面对“美国优先”的民族主义和欧洲日益高涨的民粹主义，他正在寻找最有效的方法，以重振西方摇摇欲坠的良知。由于政府援助预算不断受到右翼政客和其媒体的冷嘲热讽，慷慨的精神受到了攻击。

比尔及梅林达·盖茨基金会一半的开支都花在了非洲。这个基金会现有资金已经超过500亿美元了，主要来自盖茨夫妇和同伴慈善家沃伦·巴菲特。直到去年，微软创始人盖茨还是世界首富。如今，他已被亚马逊的杰夫·贝索斯超越。

该基金会的报告充满惊人的数据一很少有人知道人类的飞速进步。以印度为例，仅在18年前，该国近五分之一的孩子没有小学上，而现在97%的孩子上了小学。看看报告中联合国2030年可持续发展目标的全球记分卡上的指标，几乎所有地方的情况都在改善。但未来的轨迹有一个明显的变化：进展取决于未来的投资水平。

如今，西方国家需要说服一些人相信情况正在好转，尤其在欧洲像英国这样的国家，10年来实际生活水平不断下降和紧缩令人难以忍受。盖茨的乐观信息一以及他已故的朋友汉斯·罗斯林的《事实》一书和史蒂芬·平克的《当下的启蒙》一告诉我们，世界上大部分地区正处于前所未有的繁荣时期，与我们的现实不符。但事实的确如此：从未见过大多数穷人的财富增长得如此迅速。

盖茨急于鼓励西方国家继续提供援助。他很清楚，英国和其他国家一样，在援助预算上经常遭受政治攻击。英国、瑞典和挪威是少数几个实现了占国民总收入0. 7%的联合国援助支出目标的国家，它们都感受到了反外国人政治仇恨的寒流。盖茨强调说：“如果你是在用非常少的钱拯救生命，人们应该对此感到高兴。”他抗议目前对国际援助组织的冷嘲热讽。看看能做些什么，他一直这样说，并以越南优秀的教育体系为例。越南是一个贫穷的国家，其教育成果却超过了比它富裕得多的国家。

如果英国需要鼓励，他说，“关于影响的数据是惊人的。英国非常慷慨地向疫苗基金提供了两种疫苗，一种用于肺炎，另一种用于腹泻。”现在这些疾病对于全世界的孩子来说都是可以预防的，而且代价很低。英国在这一件事上起了主要作用，拯球了1000多万条生命。全英国的人都知道吗？他承认这一好消息并没有成功传播。“我们正面临解释的挑战。”每个人都应该知道这个充满希望的信息。“我们说的是以一种相当戏剧性的方式改善人类的状况。”

但是，如果（慈善的）希望不能击败影响西方世界的新本土主义，那么恐惧就是盖茨最后的武器。忽视非洲，后果自负。“非洲的稳定会让整个世界变得不一样。他警告说，威胁来了：“像埃博拉这样的流行疾病传播得非常快。”如果没有当地的医疗服务机构控制，其他许多疾病传播的速度甚至更快。

移民是影响欧洲政治的另一个威胁。他提醒我们，叙利亚是一个小国，但内战期间的大批难民“挑战了庇护制度”。但要小心，因为“非洲是另一个大威胁”。在人口老龄化和人口萎缩的世界里，非洲的人口膨胀可能是一種资产，也可能是一种威胁。因此，明智的做法是“让他们的生活更有吸引力”，而不仅仅是“纯粹的人文关怀”。投资于非洲的年轻人，他们的人力资本，健康和教育，支持更多产的农业，保护自给自足的农民免受气候变化的影响，看看自身利益如何与良好的工作相结合。

他总是强调，非洲不是一个国家。在它的54个国家中，许多国家正在跃跃欲试，其中包括加纳、博茨瓦纳和卢旺达。引起关注的是刚果民主共和国和尼日利亚。在他最近的访问中，他警告尼日利亚人注意该国日益加剧的不平等。在那里，少数人的石油财富正将数百万人拋抛在身后。该基金会迄今已在尼日利亚投入10亿美元。他表示：“他们的医疗体系比贫穷国家更糟糕，他们的农业建议在很大程度上遭到了破坏。政府资源低是因为“他们的税收水平是全球最低之一”。