Dear readers

In May when the Mother Nature is at her best in floral bliss and magnificent beauty， the global economy seems not to be in such a fascinating blossom in Spring or most likely in all the year of 2019 as predicted by the in-depth and comprehensive survey report[[ World Economic Outlook]] just released by International Monetary Fund （IMF） in April， with the significant key-words “Growth Slowdown， Precarious Recovery” as the cover-page theme title.

In the Executive Summary of the survey report， it begins with “a weakening expansion” as the introduction to its view on the world economic growth， pointing out that after a strong growth in 2017 and 2018， the global development expansion loses steam with economy slowing notably in the second half of last year as a result of many factors， but what is particularly mentioned in the report is worth reading “the activity softened amid an increase in trade tensions and tariff hikes between China and the United States.”

Aside from IMF survey report， let me see what has come out in the first round of reciprocal tariff wave between the two countries， the result is that U.S. exports to China plummeted as large industries were hit hard as is in the case of soybeans from $9.18 billion to $1.88 billion， over 80 percent down in a comparison of Oct. 2018 – March 2019 with the previous same period of Oct. 2017-March 2018. And the same has happened to a cascade of sectors in the corresponding period， like fossil fuels from $6.5 billion to$1.4 billion， 78.46% drop， and vehicles -78.46 percent， wood from &1.7 billion to $1 billion， -41.17 percent； copper from $1.1 billion to $0.6 billion by -45.45 percent， aluminum from $794 million to $414 million by – 47.85 percent， cotton from $695 million to$336 million by -51.65 percent， seafood from $579 million to $407 million by- 29.7 percent， iron & steel from $463 million to $147 million by – 68.25 percent， diary from $198 million to $98 million by – 50.5 percent， and the tobacco got the highest record， but in its freefall direction with almost just a few coins rattling in the pocket if you see it a 99.94 percent drop. The panorama in this period presents U.S.-to-China export falls by 26 percent while China to the United States by 5 percent， and China wins ，to the dismay of the Trump Administration， as is ironically rolled out in the tariff wrestling episode， even though we do not like to use the word “win”for the simple reason that the trade war harms both with no winner in the end as it eventually brings about all the doom and gloom， without boom ！

There is， and has been， perhaps will always be， a huge gap in textile and apparel trade between the two countries and it is not an overnight buildup if we look over our shoulder to see how our textile industry was developing and got its present size， strength and competitiveness in both quality and value terms under the market-driven system. Speaking of the number of textile and apparel companies， a bit over 98 percent of our companies are private-owned establishments that are operating in a clients-centered principle and socio-compliant practice to win business orders， to provide jobs， and to be a reliable and responsible trade partner in the supply chain for the U.S. market and for local consumers. If you do not import from China， you have to source elsewhere in the world， which simply can not balance the worldwide trade deficit of $112.3 billion of imports as against $23.52 billion of export （the latest year-end data as of March 2019， according to U.S. Department of Commerce）. Classical trade theory takes it for granted that you import what is very costly produced at home and export what is more competitive， cost-wise， in local production， and the stubborn insistence in international trade balance is nothing short of pseudo-proposition， especially in some industry-specific sectors.

ZHAO Hong Editor-in-Chief

May， 2019