英文摘要

Influencesofdeepeningfinancialcapitalonhigh-qualitydevelopmentofregionaleconomy/HUANG Dechun1,2,3, CHEN Wenting1,3, FU Lei1,3(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Jiangsu Province “World Water Valley” and Water Ecological Civilization Cooperative Innovation Center, Nanjing 211100, China; 3.Institute of Industrial Economics, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Based on the dynamic panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2016, the deepening level of financial capital is measured from the scale and structure of capital supply. The quality of economic development is measured by using the five dimensions of effectiveness, stability, coordination, sustainability and sharing of economic growth. The influences of deepening the financial capital on the quality of economic growth are investigated by means of the estimation method of system GMM model. The results show that the current scale of capital supply has inhibitory effects on the quality of economic growth. The deepening of bank capital and insurance capital has positive effects on the quality of economic growth. The deepening of security capital has no significant effects on the quality of economic growth. There are regional differences in the effects of deepening financial capital on the quality of economic growth.

Keywords: transformation from real to virtual economy; deepening of financial capital; high-quality development; system GMM estimation

EvaluationofcouplingcoordinationdegreebetweenwaterresourceenvironmentandeconomicdevelopmentinJiangsuProvince/TAN Fei, SHI Yuying (Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Based on the establishment of the evaluation index system for water resource environment and economic development in Jiangsu Province, the improved TOPSIS method and the rank-sum ratio method (RSR) are used to comprehensively evaluate and grade the water resource environment and economic development level from 2002 to 2017, and the coupling coordination degree model is used to calculate their coupling coordination degrees. The results show: (1) The level of the water resource environment in Jiangsu Province fluctuate, while that of the economic development has a steady rise. (2) The coupling coordination degree of the water environment and economic development in Jiangsu Province gradually increase year by year and has been upgraded from an extreme imbalance to a high-quality coordination.

Keywords: water resource environment; economic development; coupling coordination degree; Jiangsu Province

Economicgrowth,regionalwateruseandspillovereffects:empiricalstudybasedonspatialpanelSTIRPATmodel/WANG Ru, JI Xiaomei, ZHU Yuliang (College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract: To study the spatial features of regional water use and the mechanisms of economic growth and regional water use, the spatial panel STIRPAT model is introduced to analyze the relationship between the economic growth and the water use in the overall, eastern, central and western regions of China. The results show the economic growth and the water use in China are greatly spatially correlated, and they have several types of EKC curves. From the perspective of the overall level in China, the relationship between the economic growth and the water use exhibits an inverted “N-shaped” curve, with two turning points at 7358.79 and 60668.53 CNY GDP per capita, and the curve of most provinces is at the climbing stage before decline stage except a few eastern regions. The curves of the relationship between the economic growth and the water use in eastern and central regions monotonically decrease and increase, and those in the western regions also exhibit the inverted “N-shaped” ones with two turning points at 521.52 and 35225.87 CNY GDP per capita, indicating that although the water use will decline in short term, the economic development-water use dilemma will exist in long term according to the estimated results. Furthermore, there are no EKC turning points by using the traditional panel models without the consideration of the spatial correlation, implying that there will be large errors of the GDP per capita corresponding to the peak water use in China neglecting the correlation of regional water use when using the traditional approaches.

Keywords: economic growth; regional water use; Kuznets curve; spatial panel model

EmpiricalanalysisofecologicalbenefitsofwaterresourcesinChina/XU Wenyi1,2, YUAN Ruhua1,2, XU Bin3(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Institute of Water Conservancy Economics, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 3.Logistics Service Center, Department of Water Resources of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210029, China)

Abstract: According to the characteristics of ecological benefits of water resources, the market value method and human cost method are selected to quantify the ecological benefits of water resources from three aspects: soil and water conservation, water quality improvement and drinking water safety. The ecological benefits of water resources in China from 1990 to 2015 as well as those in Shaanxi and Jiangsu provinces are estimated. The results show that the ecological benefits of water resources in China generally increase, but compared with the economic benefits of water resources, the proportion is still low. The main problems faced by the ecology of water resources in different regions are also different. It is necessary to further strengthen the investment and construction of the ecological benefits of water resources. At the same time, measures should be taken according to the local conditions to solve the main problems in various areas.

Keywords: ecological benefit of water resource; empirical analysis; calculation; water right price

Accountingmethodforoperatingcostsoffirst-stageprojectofEasternRouteProjectofSouth-to-NorthWaterDiversion/LI Zhen1, ZHANG Jie2,3, ZHAO Min2,3(1.China Eastern Route Corporation of South-to-North Water Diversion, Beijing 100029, China; 2.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 3.Coastal Development and Protection Coordination Innovation Center, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The actual operating costs of Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion are the key factor in the formulation and adjustment of water supply prices. According to the specific characteristics, the accounting mode “dual-system and step-by-step” of the operating costs of Eastern Route Project is established based on the principles of full cost accounting and benefits from the perspective of accounting. It includes the operating cost accounting both in enterprise accounting system and the water supply pricing support system. In the former system, the cost collection, allocation and carry-over are carried out from five cost elements: water diversion costs, manufacturing overheads, taxes and surcharges, administrative expenses, and financial expenses. In the latter system, the cost allocation methods among different functions and sections are proposed based on the cost behavior analysis. The proposed cost accounting method can be used to develop the operation cost accounting information system of Eastern Route Project and realize the unified, standardized accounting and management of its operating costs. It may provide useful cost information for decision-making of water supply pricing and supervision and examination of government costs.

Keywords: Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion; operating cost; cost accounting; allocation

Dynamicevaluationandpredictionmodelforcreditentitiesofwaterconservancyconstructionmarketbasedonhistorydata/WANG Longbao1, LI Sheng2, YANG Huanglin3, YANG Yanyan2,4, FENG Hui2,5(1.College of Computer and Information, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 3.Water Resources Department of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510635, China; 4.International River Research Centre, Nanjing 211100, China; 5.Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: In view of the problems of different credit evaluation cycles, long evaluation cycles and unscientific evaluation methods of the entities of the water conservancy construction market, the weights of the credit evaluation indices referring to the existing credit evaluation indices of the entities of the water conservancy construction market are determined by means of the comprehensive empowerment approach so as to ensure their rationality. The comprehensive credit evaluation values of a water conservancy construction enterprise are obtained by using the proposed fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the historical data, the final dynamic evaluation values of credit are obtained. Finally, the dynamic prediction values of credit level are given by the Markov model. The results show that the dynamic credit evaluation model for the entities of the water conservancy construction market is effective and feasible for the credit evaluation of the water conservancy construction enterprises, and the prediction values of credit obtained by the Markov model can provide reference for the selection of water conservancy construction enterprises.

Keywords: credit management; dynamic evaluation; market entity; water conservancy construction

Structuraloptimizationofregionalagriculturalsupplysideunderconstraintofwaterandsoilresources:casestudyofHebeiProvince/TIAN Guiliang, SHUAI Mengdie, DING Yuemei (School of Business, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Under the constraint of water and soil resources, how to coordinate the relationship between the distribution of regional water and soil resources and the agricultural production by optimizing the structure of agricultural supply side is the top priority of the current agricultural problems. With the help of the comparative advantage theory and the agricultural system theory, an optimization model for the regional agricultural supply-side structure under the constraint of water and soil resources is established, and taking Hebei Province as the research object, the empirical analysis is performed. The multi-objective optimization particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to solve the model so as to realize the high-efficiency and sustainable development of the regional agricultural economy.

Keywords: constraint of soil and water resource; agricultural supply side; multi-objective optimization; particle swarm optimization; Hebei Province

IntegratedsustainabilityassessmentofPPPprojectsforwaterenvironmenttreatmentbasedonfive-elementconnectionnumber/WANG Lunyan1,2,3, XIA Qing1,2,3, LI Huimin1,2,3(1.School of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China; 2.Water Environment Governance and Ecological Restoration Academician Workstation of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450002, China; 3.Henan Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation and Treatment, Zhengzhou 450045, China)

Abstract: With the increase of environmental governance in China, PPP projects of water environment governance account for a large proportion in infrastructure construction. However, due to the lack of systematic index system, evaluation methods and assessment tools, it is difficult to theoretically evaluate the status quo of urban water environment and its sustainability after treatment in China. With the help of the theory of set pair analysis, the sustainability evaluation model for PPP projects of water environment treatments is established based on the five-element connection number, and the PPP project in Xuchang City is taken as the case study. The results show that the overall sustainability of the project is strong, and there is an upward trend, but the sustainable management of the project company is in a downward trend, to which attention should be paid. Using the set pair analysis model, the sustainability and trend of the whole project as well as the trend of each evaluation index can be obtained, which provides a basis for the project to improve or maintain its sustainable decision-making.

Keywords: water environment treatment; PPP; set pair analysis; sustainability assessment

Effectsofenvironmentaldecentralizationonwaterenvironmenttreatment:dynamicpaneltestsfromtheperspectiveoffiscaldecentralization/PAN Haiying, LU Min (Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2002 to 2015, the effects of environmental decentralization on water environment treatment are empirically tested by using the method of system GMM. The results show that the environmental decentralization has a significant and stable positive relationship with the three types of water pollution indices, namely, discharge of industrial and domestic wastewater (DID), ammonia nitrogen emission from industrial wastewater (HN_I), and chemical oxygen demand of industrial wastewater (COD_I). It means the excessive autonomy of local governments in environmental management is detrimental to water environmental governance. The fiscal decentralization also has a negative effect on water environment governance. With the improvement of the fiscal decentralization, the adverse impact of the environmental decentralization on the effects of water environment treatment is strengthened. The group tests reveal the negative effects of the fiscal decentralization on water environment governance are becoming less obvious due to the central policy intervention and the reform of environmental management system, and the moderating effects of the fiscal decentralization are also effectively weakened. To some extent, the environmental decentralization having better effects in the eastern areas than those in the central and western areas reduces the water pollution discharge in the eastern coastal areas. At the same time, the negative effects of the fiscal decentralization on water environment governance and its moderating effects are more significant in the central and western areas.

Keywords: environmental decentralization; effect of water environment treatment; fiscal decentralization; institutional transformation; spatial heterogeneity

Riskassessmentofflooddisastersbasedonrandomforests/CHEN Junfei1,2, DONG Ran1(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract: According to the theory of catchment disaster system, firstly 9 risk evaluation indices are selected considering disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment and disaster-bearing bodies, the sample data are used to manually identify risks and to obtain training samples, and a risk assessment model for flood disasters is established by using the random forest algorithm based on the random forests. Secondly, the self-assessment tools of the random forests are employed to analyze the model errors and indexes, and the support vector machine model is established as a comparison scheme. The 5-fold cross-validation method is used to validate the above two models. Finally, the Qiuzhuang catchment of Haihe River Basin is taken as the research object to evaluate and compare the evaluation models based on the random forests and the support vector machine with the same data. The results show that the total rainfall in 12 hours, duration of floods and water content of soils are the main factors to cause floods. The training and testing accuracies of the risk assessment of flood disasters based on the random forests are both higher than those of the support vector machine.

Keywords: flood disaster; risk assessment; random forest; support vector machine; Qiuzhuang catchment of Haihe River

Riskanalysisandevaluationofwaterresourcesandwaterenvironmentinexploitationprocessofshalegas/QIN Hao1, CHEN Xing1, XU Qin2(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2.Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China)

Abstract: The risks of water resources and water environment in the exploitation process of shale gas are analyzed. On this basis, the risk assessment index system for risks of water resources and water environment in the exploitation process of shale gas is established, specifically including three categories: risk of water resources, risk of surface water pollution and risk of groundwater pollution. Then the proposed assessment system is applied to a case study, and the risks of water resources and water environment of a shale gas project in Sichuan Province of China are investigated. The results show that the overall assessment of the shale gas project is of higher risks, among which the risk of water resources is low, that of surface water pollution is lower, and that of groundwater pollution is higher.

Keywords: shale gas; water resource; water environment; risk assessment; analytic hierarchy process; fuzzy mathematics method

EvaluationofwetlandecosystemservicesinJilinProvince/MA Qiongfang1, YAN Hong1, LI Wei2, ZHAO Xinsheng2, KANG Xiaoming2, LI Weidong1, SUN Li1(1.Academy of Forestry of Jilin Province, Changchun 130033, China; 2.Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China)

Abstract: In order to scientifically evaluate the final service value of wetland ecosystem in Jilin Province, based on the remote sensing surveys and field investigations, the index system framework and methods for evaluating the serving functions and value of wetland ecosystem are established with an integrated use of comprehensively applying resource economics and ecological economics methods, and then the service value of the wetland ecosystem in Jilin Province is evaluated by means of various items. The results show that the total service value of wetland ecosystem in Jilin Province is quantitatively estimated at 216.193 billion CNY, with the average value of 0.12 million CNY·hm-2. The supplying service function value is 43.646 billion CNY, accounting for 20.19% of the total value. The regulating service function value is 111.664 billion CNY, accounting for 51.65% of the total value. The supporting service function value is 41.764 billion CNY, accounting for 19.32% of the total value. The cultural service function value is 191.19 billion CNY, accounting for 8.84% of the total value. These service value results, to some extent, objectively reflect that the wetland ecosystem in Jilin Province has direct economic benefits and also huge ecological and social benefits.

Keywords: wetland; ecosystem; value estimation, Jilin Province

UtilizationefficiencyofwaterforproductioninJiangsuProvince/JIANG Lili1, ZHAO Min2(1.Institute of Water Conservancy Economics, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The three-stage DEA method is used to study the relevant data of water for production in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2017 by selecting the water for production, labor forces and input of fixed assets of industrial sector as the input indices, the regional gross domestic product as the output index, and annual precipitation, compliance rate of water functional areas and ownership of water resources per capita as the environmental variables. The results show that there are five years which are non-DEA effective at the first stage, mainly owing to that the unreasonable allocation of resources affects the utilization efficiency of water for production. After eliminating the influences of environmental variables, non-effective management and random interference at the second stage, the efficiency values of the third stage are improved, and the environmental variables mainly affect the water for production. Although the comprehensive efficiencies of the first and third stages are different, the overall change trend is the same, that is, the utilization efficiency of water for production from 2011 to 2015 decreases to some extent, it gradually increases after 2015 and reaches the optimum status of utilization in 2017. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for improving the utilization efficiency of water for production in Jiangsu Province.

Keywords: Jiangsu province; water for production; utilization efficiency; three-stage DEA method

IdentificationandgameanalysisofkeystakeholdersinoversizedconstructioninvestmentprojectsbasedonSNA/SUN Lin1, HUANG Dechun1,2,3, ZHANG Changzheng1,2,3(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2.Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China; 3.Institute of Industrial Economics, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The oversized construction investment projects involve many stakeholders in the process of construction. It is very important for the projects to solve the conflicts of interests among different actors and the game of interests of the key stakeholders. Based on this problem, the matrix of the key stakeholders of the oversized construction investment projects is established, namely, the constructor, the project owner, the local government and the immigrants through the social network analysis. And then based on the evolutionary game theory, the conflicts of the key stakeholders are analyzed to find out the key factors that affect the equilibrium of the game by using the dynamic evolutionary game model as well as how to balance the interests between them. Finally, according to the analysis results, the countermeasures are put forward to improve the supervision and management system and to establish a reasonable immigration management system.

Keywords: construction investment project; social network analysis; key stakeholder; game theory