What Does the SCO Mean for Pakistan and India?

by Wali Zahid

At the Astana summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization （SCO） in 2017， India and Pakistan became full members of the organization. The development marked the SCOs first expansion since its establishment in 2001.

All eyes are on the eastern Chinese coastal city of Qingdao in Shandong Province， which will host this years summit of the SCO， the worlds most populous regional bloc， from June 9 to 10. This will be the first SCO summit since Pakistan and India became full members of the body at its Astana summit in Kazakhstan last year.

The SCOs eight member states now include China， Kazakhstan， Kyrgyzstan， Russia， Tajikistan， Uzbekistan， India and Pakistan. The states host nearly half of the worlds population and create over 20 percent of global GDP.

Opportunity and Challenges

Relations between Pakistan and India have remained tense since their independence in 1947. After fighting three wars， they have come close to more wars several times in recent decades. Both countries are members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation （SAARC）， but that regional bloc has failed to achieve substantial progress， precisely because the pair can hardly share the stage at the forum.

With this baggage in tow， Pakistan and India have been admitted to the SCO， which is considered a cohesive body. A newfound challenge for the SCO is to calm two quarreling countries and foster a win-win outcome.

We have already seen modest progress by both countries to resolve their bilateral issues and contribute to SCO goals in regional development. The usual cross-border firing incidents along the Line of Control （LoC） and occasional exchange of harsh words continued last year. Usually， only after the Director Generals of Military Operations （DGMOs） get on the phone together are issues deescalated.

Some symbolic progress， however， has come to pass. While maintaining aggressive stances against each other on the surface， the two will participate in a joint military exercise to counter terrorism in Russia in September under the SCOs 2018 Peace Mission. However， real progress will be easing tensions and launching bilateral cooperation on all matters， trade in particular.

If we merge the SCO with the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative， SCO member states will further improve cross-border logistics condi- tions and increase capacity. Some major joint projects have been completed in the region， including highways， railways and power plants. According to official figures， China has built 21 economic and trade cooperation zones within SCO countries so far.

Regional Cooperation

It is yet to be seen how India and Pakistan will behave as full members of the SCO.

This is an election year in Pakistan. When the SCO summit takes place， the tenure of Pakistans current government led by Pakistan Muslim League-N will end and a provisional government will go into place before a new government takes charge in August. Election results will determine how ties with India take shape. Foreign and security policies in Pakistan are under the armys control which sees India as an enemy. A hung parliament may not tilt towards peace with India as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif did after he won the 2013 general election

However， if Sharifs party returns to power with majority in parliament， the SCO banner will be a godsend to the civilian government to make peace with India and open bilateral or transit trade.

Regionally speaking， it is in Chinas interest to return peace to Afghani- stan， which has observer status in the eight-member body. It is still plagued by bomb blasts that cause massive casualties on daily basis. But Pakistan and India distrust each other on their respective roles in Afghanistan. For instance， Indias investment and development goals in Afghanistan are seen as strategic inroads by Pakistans army.

Furthermore， neither the four-member Quadrilateral Coordination Group （QCG） mechanism， which includes China， the U.S.， Afghanistan and Pakistan， nor bilateral framework under the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity（APAPPS）， has seen much progress.

Will the SCO Bring Pakistan and India Closer？

In short， yes and no.

The civilian government and military in Pakistan are not on the same page on how to deal with India. Some analysts believe that the armys India-centric strategy is an attempt to secure more budgetary resources in the poor country. Civilians largely want to deal with India as a neighbor with which they have issues but still carry on as other nations do， and give diplomacy a chance.

Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers so war is not an option.

At the same time， both Pakistan and India are poor countries with much of their population living below the poverty line. They can learn a thing or two from the SCOs rotating presidency： China brought its extreme poverty rate from 88 percent in 1981 to less than 3 percent in 2018.

If a weak government returns to power， the army will maintain the status quo. A strong civilian government could deal with India with more confidence， and the region could finally see some peace.

If and when peace returns， tourism alone could become a big economic boost for the region. Alongside regional security and stability， another major priority of the SCO is tourism development. SCO member states have seen a major surge in tourism within the bloc， both inbound and outbound.

The Way Forward

India will be a major beneficiary of the 18th SCO summit in Qingdao. China has been warming up to India after the Dong Lang （Doklam） standoff last year. So far China has failed to secure Indian support for the Belt and Road Initiative for two key reasons： One of the projects， the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor（CPEC）， passes through Pakistan-administered Kashmir， and India sees the Initiative as ambition for regional or global domination.

Despite Indias reservations， both countries foreign and defense ministers have visited each others capitals to prepare for the Qingdao summit.

Chinas foreign ministry， however， is assuring Islamabad that closer cooperation with India will not be a detriment to Pakistan.

On the other hand， Pakistans media and politics duo （coupled with militants wreaking havoc on fragile Pakistan） could be blamed for Pakistans lost opportunities.

So， will Pakistan benefit from the SCO framework to increase economic opportunities for its millions of poor？ How will relationships with neighbors like India， Iran and Afghanistan better shape Pakistans SCO membership upgrade？ And， will Pakistans politicians and media behave differently now that they are part of a different league？ The jury is still out.

However， a way forward is only possible if the media and politicians mend their ways. When it comes to international opportunities， politicians need to abandon petty politics. Instead of conspiring to time street agitations at every global opportunity that comes Pakistans way， they need to appeal to voters based on respective performances in their governed provinces.

SCO membership should only help Pakistan open doors. It requires our own national effort across two pillars—media and politics—playing visionary and futuristic roles， to help Pakistan reap the benefits and， like China， lift our millions out of poverty. This is the only way.