Model Constructing for Analyzing the Energy Profile Evolution

Bai Jing

摘 要：Energy is a crucial material basis for the survival and development of human society. In the United States， many aspects of energy policy are decentralized to the state level. The purpose of this paper is to construct a model for analyzing the energy profile evolution. So we choose the representative state of California as our research object. First， we take department as a unit to screen the variables for energy consumption. Then， we make the principal component analysis according to the department respectively and calculate the energy comprehensive evaluation of each department. Finally， we use the evaluation to evaluate the energy consumption of California from 1960 to 2009 and depict the trend of evolution with line charts.

關键词：Energy Profile Evolution， Model Constructing， PCA， California

1.Selection of data indicators

The data file provided describes the actual changes of 605 variables during 1960 and 2009 in California. After further study of the variables， we take department as a unit to screen the variables for energy consumption as follows.

Among， Re， Cl and Nr are the three principal components. This is determined by the value of weight in the element matrix. That is to notice the categories of energy that are the main proportion of each part. In this part， the proportion of renewable energy in the first principal component is larger. The definition of the second and third principal components is the same as the first. The corresponding element matrix is shown below：

Due to space limitations， other departments have the same method and are not repeated here.

Then we use MATLAB R2015a to Draw 50 years of energy evolution of CA：

5.The Result of Analysis of CA

There are differences in the main energy consumption among the five sectors of CA. The state of use of clean energy： CS of CA use almost 85% of clean energy； RS of CA use almost 80% of clean energy； IS of CA use almost 79% of clean energy； ES of CA use almost 100% of clean energy； AS of CA use almost 28% of clean energy. So， from the overall point of view， people in CA use clean energy more fully and energy use is reasonable. It is worthy that the transport sector should make the appropriate adjustments and it should be as much as possible the use of clean energy as fuel.

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