关于二氧化碳与温室效应的不同观点

李昌浩，阎路，周正一

(中国华电科工集团有限公司，北京 100160)

关于二氧化碳与温室效应的不同观点

李昌浩，阎路，周正一

(中国华电科工集团有限公司，北京 100160)

政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)自从发布了第1份《气候变化评估报告》以来，学术界对全球变暖以及CO2是否是导致气候变暖的主要原因一直争论不断。介绍了非政府间国际气候变化专门委员会(NIPCC)提出的观点：IPCC做出的全球气候模型(GCMs)存在不足、CO2的影响作用被夸大、IPCC没有考虑辐射强迫与反馈作用等，认为是自然原因而不是人类活动造成了全球变暖。

CO2；IPCC；NIPCC；全球气候模型；温室效应

0 引言

1896年，瑞典科学家Svante Ahrrenius警告说，二氧化碳(CO2)排放量可能会导致全球变暖。1988年，联合国环境规划署和世界气象组织成立了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)，随后， IPCC发布的《气候变化评估报告》称：全球气候正在变暖，其中CO2是导致全球变暖的最主要因素，如果不采取控制措施，全球气候变暖将会造成生态环境大灾难。自从IPCC报告发布以来，关于全球气候变暖以及CO2是否是导致气候变暖的主要原因，在学术界存在的很大的争议。

1 IPCC主导下的温室效应与CO2

气候现象的主要能量来自于太阳的辐射，太阳辐射主要是短波辐射，而地面辐射和大气辐射则是长波辐射。大气对长波辐射的吸收力较强，对短波辐射的吸收力较弱。大气在吸收地面长波辐射的同时，自己也向外辐射波长更长的长波(因为大气的温度比地面更低)，其中向下到达地面的部分称为逆辐射，地面接受逆辐射后就会升温，或者说大气对地面起到了保温作用，这就是大气温室效应的原理。

大气中起温室作用的气体被称为温室气体，目前主要的温室气体有9种：二氧化碳(CO2)、甲烷(CH4)、臭氧(O3)、水蒸气(H2O)、氧化亚氮(N2O)、氯氟烃(CFCs)、高氟碳化合物(PFCs)、氢氟碳化合物(HFCs)、六氟化硫(SF6)。CO2被认为是主要的温室气体，其全球变暖影响比例为60%。现阶段认为，大气中CO2增加，主要是人类长期使用化石燃料(如煤、石油、天然气等)所造成的[1]。

全球大气本底基准观象台观测大气中CO2月平均体积分数的变化：CO2体积分数平均值由1990年的0.035 2%左右增长至2014年的0.039 6%左右，增长值达到0.004 4百分点[2]。

IPCC根据气候辐射强度与反馈机制做出全球气候模型(GCMs)并认为：大气中CO2的体积分数增加1倍，将会导致6.0 ℃的温升；与人类活动相关的CO2排放在过去15年内至少造成了0.3 ℃的温升；热带区域对流层的升温仍在持续；在20世纪，两极的温升明显高于地球上其他地区[1]。

同时，IPCC认为，山区冰层、北冰洋海冰、极地冰层的不正常融化，全球海平面加速上涨，淹没热带地区的珊瑚环礁，旱涝、季风变化强度和频率一直在增加等因全球变暖而引起的各种极端天气及自然灾害，更加证实了全球正在呈现变暖的趋势。

2 NIPCC及其观点

2007年2月，美国伊利诺伊州芝加哥哈特兰德研究所(Hartland Institute)科学与环境政策计划(SEPP)组建了“B支队”，目的是对气候变暖的科学证据进行独立于IPCC的评估[3]。2007年4月，该组织在维也纳国际气候工作会上正式成立，更名为非政府间国际气候变化专门委员会(NIPCC)。NIPCC的科学家们不轻信气候变化是由于人类活动下的温室气体排放造成的，至今NIPCC针对气候变化的问题已经出版了8份报告。

2.1IPCC气候模型的不足

对于IPCC做出的气候模型，NIPCC认为存在以下不足。

(1)气候模型假设CO2体积分数为工业革命前的2倍，但气象观测数据反应敏感度仅为1 ℃或者更少，远小于模型的3 ℃；同时，模型低估了地球表面蒸发和全球降水的影响。

(2)气候模型没有准确反映气溶胶在红外线反射中的变化，研究表明，不同的气溶胶可以造成不同的红外线反射强度，其值为7～25 W/m2。

(3)气候模型分析的准确性受限于计算能力；同时，模式校准存在偏差，如假设温升是工业革命后人为排放CO2造成的，而实际上主要的人为排放是从20世纪中叶开始的。

(4)非线性的气候模型会造成一个参数对应不同的趋势值。

(5)气候模型没有对历史记载的气候波动进行模拟；同时，气候模型也没有考虑太阳磁场的变化和宇宙射线的作用。

NIPCC认为IPCC的主张、假设、旁证缺少合适的科学方法。全球气候模型在完全了解全球气候运作的情况下才能得出有意义的结论，当前许多气候科学家认为还没有掌握气候变化的规律；同时，气候模型并不是用于预测未来气候的变化，而是用于测算多种可能的未来趋势变化。

2.2被夸大影响作用的CO2

地球上的气候始终处于变化之中，根据地球气候学的研究，自然因素始终都是影响地球气候变化的主要因素，而人为活动对气候变化有一定的影响，但不是主要的。

温度变化与CO2体积分数变化相关不好。1940—1975年气候变冷，但CO2体积分数上升很快。2001年之后卫星观测的温度没有上升趋势，但CO2体积分数上升也很快。另外，地面温度观测并不可靠：首先，城市热岛效应很难排除；其次，海面温度观测技术混乱，有浮标、卫星、船舶观测；再次，全球范围内观测点从1 200个格点减为600个格点，覆盖面由46%下降到23%：因此，温度的观测数据有明显偏差[4]。

大气中的CO2是一种温和的温室气体，随着CO2体积分数的增加，所体现出的增温效应呈逐渐缩小的趋势；同时，高体积分数的CO2对植物及生物有利，不会造成更加频繁的极端天气事件。尽管现在CO2体积分数达到了0.040 0%，我们还是生活在一个CO2极少的世界。从寒武纪(大约5.5亿年前)起至今，大气层中CO2的体积分数大约增长了15倍，但并未出现大家设定的不良反应[5]。

大气中CO2的体积分数大约是工业革命以前的2倍，在不计其他因素引起的辐射强度及反馈作用的情况下，极可能引起0.3～1.1 ℃的温升，至少一半值的温升已经产生[5]。

根据IPCC从1990年开始做出的报告，到2100年，CO2的体积分数翻倍会造成6 ℃的温升，然而在20世纪末，全球气候变暖基本停止，并且从1997年起16年内维持在一个相对稳定的温度，但在这期间CO2的体积分数上升了8%[5]。

造成全球温度变化的原因至今仍不确定，但是以十年为尺度和以百年为尺度的变化来看，气候特征与太阳的活动有着明显的相关性。在未来几十年内，根据太阳的周期性循环预测，全球将会是温度下降而不是变暖，尽管期间CO2仍在持续排放。

2.3辐射强迫与反馈作用

IPCC没有考虑辐射强迫与反馈作用，即由于大气水分的增加、海洋中二甲基硫醚的排放，自然和工业气溶胶的冷却效果导致低层云增加[5]。

NIPCC通过对辐射强迫及反馈作用的研究得出以下结论。

(1)自工业革命以来，体积分数已经翻倍的CO2(从0.028 0%增至0.056 0%)可能会造成近地表温度强迫因子值为3.7 W/m2，预计温升为1 ℃[5]。

(2)IPCC模型强调，增加的水蒸气的正反馈作用可引起3.0～6.0 ℃的温升，但经验数据显示，温升的作用仅有0.3～1.0 ℃[5]。

(3)在冰芯样本中，几百年内温度的变化先于同期大气层中CO2体积分数的变化；同时，在历史和地质记录中，温度与CO2的变化并不呈现耦合的关系：因而，CO2并非造成温室效应的元凶[5]。

(4)在过去的20年中，大气中CO2的体积分数已经低于IPCC在报告中假设条件下的预估值，IPCC的温度预测应当包含甲烷的膨胀预测并做出模型及参数的相应调整[5]。

(5)永冻土层和海底可燃冰的融化并非一定释放大量的甲烷而影响现在的温升[5]。

(6)伴随着CO2体积分数和温度的上升，作为温度负反馈的氮氧化物的质量浓度应该下降。

3 结束语

当前气候是有变暖的迹象，但并没有像宣传的那样危言耸听。温室效应不是一个简单的过程，变暖的原因多种多样，比较复杂，当今在学术界仍存在很大争议，CO2排放量的增加是否会引起当前环境变化仍需进一步研究。当前阶段，不能简单地将温室效应与CO2联系在一起，单方面从控制CO2的排放来消除或控制温室效应，而是应当进行综合系统分析，从根本上解决全球气候问题。

[1]IPCC.Climate change：The IPCC scientific assessment[R].Geneva:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，1991.

[2]世界气象组织.温室气体公报[R].维也纳：世界气象组织，2015.

[3]杨新兴.二氧化碳不是气候变化的罪魁祸首[J].前沿科学，2016，10(1):29-39.

[4]王绍武，罗勇，赵宗慈.关于非政府间国际气候变化专门委员会(NIPCC)报告[J].气候变化研究进展，2010,6(2)：89-94.

[5]NIPCC.Why scientists disagree about global warming：The NIPCC report on scientific consensus[R].Vienna:Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change，2015.

(本文责编：刘芳)

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2017-09-67Coal-firedpowerplantfluegasdenitrationcatalystharm-freetreatmentandreusetechnologystudy

WANGLele,YAOYan,WANGLipeng,YANGXiaoning,HEChuan,KONGFanhai(Xi’an Thermal Power Research Institute Company Limited Suzhou Branch, Suzhou 215153, China)

Abstract:With the popularization in our country, generation of flue gas denitration catalyst as solid hazard is increasing year by year. Treatment of this became a critical problem. By analyzing the generation and harmness of flue gas denitration catalyst, the treatment principle of decreasing, harm-free and resourcing was indicated. Based on this principle, this paper introduced and compared technical approaches to treat the waste catalyst after analyzation. The introduction and discussion of relevant technology could be referred for following study.

Keywords:coal-fired power plant; flue gas denitration; harm-free treatments; resource utilization

2017-09-71DifferentviewpointofCO2andglobalwarming

LIChanghao,YANLu,ZHOUZhengyi(China Huadian Engineering Company Limited, Beijing 100160, China)

Abstract:Since the first climate change assessment report publicized by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whether CO2is the main factor caused global warm became a controversy topic in academe. This paper introduced the viewpoint of Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). They claimed that the global climate models (GCMs), built by IPCC, have defects, effect of CO2was overestimated. And IPCC ignored radiative forcing, back donation and other factors. NIPCC believe global warming is caused by natural reasons, not human activates.

Keywords:CO2; IPCC; NIPCC; global climate model; greenhouse effect

2017-09-73Real-timemonitoringsystembaseddenitrationoperationimprovementmanagement

XUJinsong,SHAOYuan(Huadian Power International Company Center for Technical Service, Jinan 250014, China)

Abstract:Based on the operation data, including selective catalyst reduction (SCR) system inlet NOxmass density, oxygen content, denitration efficiency, flue gas flow rate, ammonia injection rate and others, monitored by real-time mornitoring system, a few of calculation models were built to verify denitration operation and set alarm value. Establishment of denitration alarm system will help power plant to adjust in time.

Keywords:SCR system; real-time monitoring system; operation improvement

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2017-09-01Intervalintegrationdesignforinsiturelayprotectionoftransformersubstation
ZHAOQian1,2,ZOULei1,2,CHENFufeng1,2,XUEMingjun1,2,GONGShimin1,2,LIYuping1,2(1.Guodian Nanjing Automation Company Limited, Nanjing 210003, China； 2.Nanjing Guodian Nanzi Automation Company Limited, Nanjing 211153, China)

Facing the in situ integration demands of relay protection of transformer substation, this paper carried out integration and optimization design for the relay protection devices of medium and high voltage lines in transformer substation, which integrated distributed bus protection, merging units, intelligent terminals, measuring and controlling function, etc. This design scheme mainly adopted the methods of physical integration of devices and independent functional modules. Through analyzing and testing, this design scheme could improve the reliability and real-time performance of protection sampling, reduce the number of devices and cabinets, increase information processing efficiency and simplify wiring in smart substations.

transformer substation；relay protection；in situ；interval integration

X 16

：B

：1674-1951(2017)09-0071-02

2017-05-26；

:2017-08-19

李昌浩(1988—)，男，辽宁大连人，助理工程师，从事火电厂技术管理及烟气污染治理工作(E-mail:lichanghao@chec.com.cn)。