改进的非等距灰色模型及其在沉降预测中的应用

韩文喜

摘要：在残差修正的非等距灰色预测模型的基础上，将传统无偏灰色模型还原为非等距模型时间函数进行原始数据列的预测。在残差修正时用时间函数和组合灰色预测非等距模型进行残差修正，然后将两种残差预测值进行加权得到最终残差，得到最后修正预测值。将预测值与提供的数据列进行比较，表明此方法可以得到较好的预测效果。

Abstract： Based on the non-equidistant gray prediction model with residual error， the traditional unbiased gray model is reduced to the non-equidistant model time function to predict the original data series. The residuals are corrected by using the time function and the combined gray prediction non-equidistant model， and then the residuals are weighted by the two residual prediction values to obtain the final modified prediction value. Comparing the predicted value with the data provided， it shows that this method can obtain better prediction effect.

关键词：改进灰色模型；非等距；残差的修正和加权；沉降预测

Key words： improved gray model；non-equidistant；correction and weighting of residuals；settlement prediction

中图分类号：TU4 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-4311（2017）03-0136-02