推荐论文摘要

张红才，金星，李军，等

推荐论文摘要

地震预警系统研究及应用进展

张红才，金星，李军，等

地震预警系统是一种能够有效减轻地震灾害的新手段。世界上多个国家和地区，如日本、墨西哥、美国、意大利、台湾地区等都已经研发了多个针对特定设施、单个城市甚至更大区域的地震预警系统，有的地震预警系统已经正式面向全体公众发布地震预警信息，有的还正在线测试运行。主要介绍了地震预警系统的一些基本概念，地震预警系统需要解决的两个关键问题，以及地震预警系统在全球范围内的研究、建设进展及相关应用情况等。通过这些总结归纳为我国地震预警系统的建设提供一定参考。

地震预警系统；地震灾害；发布

来源出版物：地球物理学进展, 2013, 28(2): 706-719

超浅层三维地震勘探技术应用

石战结，田钢，赵文轲，等

摘要：为了检验超浅层三维地震勘探技术对城市复杂环境下工程勘察目标的探测能力，在上海市某公路上对地下隧道进行超浅层三维地震探测试验。设计具有较高施工效率的密集炮点排列的超浅层三维地震数据采集观测系统，利用omega地震数据处理软件对超浅层三维地震数据进行带通滤波、FX线性干扰压制、振幅补偿、反褶积、速度分析和叠加等处理，最后对超浅层三维地震叠加数据体进行三维可视化解释。结果表明，在地震叠加剖面上可以清晰看到超浅层地层界面的反射，由超浅层地震三维数据体能够推断出地下隧道的分布范围。

关键词：超浅层三维地震；市政工程；勘察；应用试验

来源出版物：浙江大学学报（工学版）, 2013, 47(5): 912-917

弹性城市研究框架综述

李彤玥，牛品一，顾朝林

摘要：当代城市面临洪灾、地震、气候变化、流行疾病、贫穷、经济波动等急性冲击和慢性压力，城市需要构建弹性来应对这些危机。目前，已针对城市系统、气候变化和灾害风险管理、能源等领域构建了弹性城市研究框架，其中美国洛克菲勒基金会针对城市系统提出的弹性框架因囊括了社会、经济、环境、制度、基础设施等诸多领域而系统全面，有利于指导弹性城市研究和实践；城市气候变化及灾害风险弹性框架提出了“识别—分析评价—诊断—行动计划”的弹性构建流程。比较弹性城市研究和城市可持续发展研究的概念框架可以发现：弹性城市概念框架更具有问题导向研究和实用的特性，兼具规避风险和减灾及增强灾后恢复的针对性，同时更关注全部城市系统响应多元压力并具有多样化的吸收能力及冗余性。目前，弹性城市框架已被国外广泛研究并应用于构建城市应对飓风、地震、海啸等自然灾害的弹性实践中。我国的弹性城市研究还刚刚开始，现就国外弹性城市进展进行研究，主要介绍弹性城市概念，针对城市系统、气候变化和灾害风险管理、城市能源等三种弹性城市研究框架，同时还就弹性城市与可持续城市研究框架进行了比较研究。

关键词：弹性城市；城市研究方法；灾害风险管理；可持续城市

来源出版物：城市规划学刊, 2014, (5): 23-31

大华北地区地震灾害与风险评估

刘静伟，王振明，谢富仁，等

摘要：地震灾害与风险是两个本质不同的概念：地震灾害是指由地震所引起的自然现象，而地震风险是指由地震灾害所导致人类及其环境破坏的可能性。在考虑抗震设防时，地震风险是更为重要的因素。本文首先对地震灾害与风险这两个概念进行探讨，然后利用500年的历史地震烈度资料对大华北地区的地震灾害和风险进行评估。研究结果表明，大华北地区具有较高的地震灾害和地震风险，尤其是鄂尔多斯周缘和京津唐地区；研究区内很多城市现行的抗震设防要求可能偏低。

关键词：大华北地区；地震灾害；地震风险；灾害曲线；地震烈度；抗震设防

来源出版物：地震工程学报, 2014, 36(1): 12-21

城市地震应急处置方案技术研究

徐敬海，聂高众

摘要：地震应急预案作为地震应急的核心文件之一，存在操作性不强，针对性不足等问题。在分析地震应急预案特点的基础上提出一种地震应急处置方案技术。地震应急处置方案是地震发生后，为指导地震应急救援，针对具体应急事件的应急处置工作方案。阐述了地震应急处置方案的特点及其与地震应急预案的关系。论述了地震应急处置方案的组成，包括：处置方案框架、应急决策知识和信息技术支撑平台。介绍了地震应急处置方案的工作原理，在信息技术支撑平台上应用地震应急决策知识修正应急处置方案框架并动态生成处置方案。以地市级为例论述了地震应急处置方案框架，并介绍地震应急决策知识的组成。从而为地震应急处置方案的生成与应用奠定基础，该方案试图在一定程度上改进地震应急预案的不足。

关键词：地震应急；应急处置；处置方案；应急预案

来源出版物：地震地质, 2014, 41(4): 107-110

地震预警系统综述

高峰，杨学山，马树林

摘要：由于地震引发的巨大人员伤亡和财产灾难，地震预警越来越引起世界各国的重视。通过分析地震预警的原理，介绍了异地震前预警和现地地震P波预警，同时也介绍了地震预警系统在城市以及铁路、核电站和输油气管线等基础设施应用，强调其对于防灾减灾工程的重要性。

关键词：地震预警；P波预警；预警系统；应用

来源出版物：自然灾害学报, 2014, 23(5): 62-69

城市大型地下空间结构地震风险评估体系研究

安军海，陶连金，安林轩

摘要：城市大型地下空间结构引领着未来地下工程开发的新趋势，其抗震性能已成为工程及学术领域研究的热点问题。基于数值仿真分析的计算结果，提出了适合大型地下空间结构的地震风险评估体系，首次构建了评估指标，利用权重系数法确定了各评价指标的权重，结合评估项目实践,采用模糊语言描述进行了风险等级的划分,进而建立了适合地下结构地震风险评估的控制流程并进行了实例验证。研究结果表明：基于数值仿真分析的地震风险评估体系能够直观地呈现结构地震破坏机制，有效地进行风险溯源，从而给出合理的风险等级和针对性的控制措施，获得满意的风险评估结果。地震风险评估体系的建立为城市大型复杂地下结构的地震风险预测相关指南规范的研究提供了参考数据。

关键词：地下空间结构；数值仿真分析；地震风险评估；评估指标；风险控制

来源出版物：土木工程学报, 2015, 48(S2): 118-123

基于系统动力学的城市抗震防灾能力评估

苏经宇，刘晓然，王威，等

摘要：为解决城市抗震防灾系统由于本身非线性、复杂性、动态发展性、自组织性等特点致使其难以量化评估的问题，实现依据地震时序的城市抗震防灾能力的动态评估，提出了基于系统动力学的城市抗震防灾能力动态评估模型。首先，回顾总结了城市抗震防灾相关研究的进展，总结了以往城市抗震防灾相关研究的不足；其次，给出了基于系统动力学城市抗震防灾能力评估研究的基本理论及框架；最后，运用系统动力学构建了震前重点片区的人员紧急疏散、震后薄弱区短期疏散及震后人员伤亡和救援3个模型，通过模型模拟为城市抗震防灾规划的具体实施提供了一定参考依据，且证实了系统动力在城市抗震防灾方面的实用性。

关键词：地下空间结构；数值仿真分析；地震风险评估；评估指标；风险控制；

来源出版物：北京工业大学学报, 2015, 41(5): 709-717

城市地下结构抗震研究进展

陈国兴，陈苏，杜修力，等

摘要：城市地下结构，尤其是隧道、地铁、地下车站、地下管线系统，是现代社会公共基础设施的重要组成部分。考虑到城市地下结构对生命和经济的重要性，对城市地下结构进行适当的抗震设计是非常必要的。通常认为地下结构的抗震性能优于地面结构，然而在近年的大地震中，已有城市地下结构严重破坏甚至完全坍塌的多个案列报道。报道介绍了工程师在地下结构地震效应设计中所采用的定量方法，而这些新近的震害现象也揭示了现行抗震设计方法的一些重要缺陷。讨论和强调了改进地下结构地震性能和设计的最主要需求。认识到地下结构受到强地震引起的地基变形和扭曲而非惯性力作用，以及地下结构特殊的几何构型和概念特征使得其地震行为和性能与地面结构存在很大差异，是非常重要的。从简单的解析弹性方法到复杂且物理意义更精确的整体动力数值方法，目前有多种有效的地下结构抗震分析方法。对地下结构震害、动力离心机和振动台模型试验，以及工程师在地下结构抗震分析中可能遇到的有效设计与分析方法等方面涉及的重要问题进行了简要和全面的回顾。

关键词：城市地下工程；震害；模型试验；数值模拟；减轻灾害的工程措施

来源出版物：防灾减灾工程学报, 2016, 36(1): 1-23

地震应急救援辐射效应分析——以芦山7.0级地震为例

高娜，聂高众，邓砚

摘要：地震应急救援是一个很复杂的过程，对地震应急救援辐射的研究需要用一种理论模型来刻画和描述。用辐射能力来反映外部的救援能力，结合城市空间相互作用的研究理论，建立了地震应急救援辐射模型，并以芦山7.0级地震为例，计算了芦山县与四川省其他地级市之间的时间距离及各市对芦山的辐射能力，在此基础上分析了各地市的地震应急救援辐射能力。辐射能力最强的是成都市，其次是绵阳、德阳、南充等地市，辐射能力最弱的是攀枝花、甘孜藏族自治州、阿坝藏族羌族自治州等市州。

关键词：地震应急救援；辐射效应；时间距离；芦山7.0级地震

来源出版物：灾害学, 2014, 29(2): 170-174

城市地震风险精细化评估——以北京海淀区为例

袁海红，高晓路，戚伟

摘要：地震风险评估需充分考虑到地震风险的时空差异，选择合理的时空间尺度进行研究，才能给政府防灾减灾规划、政策的落实和应急救援等提供具有可操作性、切实有效的信息。为此，基于辨识城市地震风险时空格局差异以及抗震救灾组织2个方面的综合考虑，本研究选择在500 m×500 m格网尺度上进行昼夜2个不同时段的地震风险评估研究，建立了昼夜人口分布与土地利用的对应关系，以及建筑物损毁与人员伤亡之间的关系，提出了昼夜地震风险精细化评估的方法。并以北京市海淀区为例，在500 m×500 m格网尺度上进行了地震风险的模拟评估，估算了海淀区总体及格网在相应的地震烈度下可能的建筑物损毁面积、房屋损失以及人员伤亡数。结果表明，海淀区年期望建筑物损毁总面积为18.5万m2，房屋总损失为3.25亿元（不包括屋内财产），白天死亡总人数3158人，受伤总人数12071人，夜晚死亡总人数2037人，受伤总人数7790人；空间上，建筑物损毁面积和房屋损失比较大的地区集中在南部城市中心区和东部产业园区，白天和夜晚伤亡人数自东南向西北呈现出显著的“城市核心区—城市边缘区—城市影响区—乡村腹地”的衰减模式，白天伤亡人口有几个显著的高值区,夜晚伤亡人口则分布相对分散。文中的分析结果识别了昼夜精细化尺度地震风险的高值区域，为进一步确定防震减灾、震后应急救援以及各种救灾物资分配的重点地区提供了决策依据。

关键词：精细化尺度；地震风险评估；建筑物损毁；损失；人员伤亡；海淀区

来源出版物：地震地质, 2016, 38(1): 197-210

城市地震应急避难场所的确定方法和功能设计研究

冯海成，孟祥雨，章立科，等

摘要：地震应急避难场所的选择和设计对震前和震后的抢险救援及灾民的安置具有重要的作用。在高烈度区的大中城市，地震应急避难场所的规划设计也是城市防震减灾规划中非常重要的工作内容。以某经济开发区为例，利用O-D矩阵理论对地震应急避难场所进行了合理选择，同时对选定的应急避难场所进行了功能设计。研究成果对城市避难场所的选择具有参考价值，对该开发区的不可预见的灾难的应急救援具有重要的实用价值。

关键词：应急避难；体育场馆；避难设计；校园避灾功能

来源出版物：自然灾害学报, 2016, 25(4): 86-92

适用于城市高层建筑群的震害预测模型研究

熊琛，许镇，陆新征，等

摘要：高层建筑是城市建筑的重要组成部分，现有建筑震害预测模型难以满足城市区域高层建筑群震害分析的要求。该文提出了一套非线性多自由度弯剪耦合模型（NMFS）以及其参数标定方法。该模型：1）能模拟高层建筑显著的弯剪耦合变形行为。与传统的剪切层模型对比，该模型能准确的模拟高层建筑的层间位移角包络，其结果与精细有限元模型的结果非常接近；2）具有非常高的计算效率。与精细有限元模型对比,该模型的计算加速比超过60000倍；3）参数标定简单。仅需要借助于少量的建筑属性信息（结构高度、建设年代、设计信息和结构类型）就能生成整个模型的弹塑性参数；4）能输出各层时程响应以及层间位移角情况，使未来基于工程需求参数（EDP）的区域高层建筑经济损失预测成为了可能。论文针对一栋典型高层结构详细展示了模型的建立与标定流程，并对标定参数的准确性进行了校验。最后对北京CBD地区高层建筑群进行了震害模拟，验证了该方法在城市区域中应用的可行性。该文的成果期望为未来区域高层建筑的地震损失预测提供参考。

关键词：区域震害分析；高层建筑；弯剪耦合模型；时程分析；参数标定

来源出版物：工程力学, 2016, 33(11): 49-58

来源出版物：Proceedings of the IEEE, 2014, 20: 1-15

Horizontally curved steel bridge seismic vulnerability assessment

Seo, Junwon; Linzell, Daniel G.

Abstract:Most computational research related to steel bridge seismic vulnerability has focused on statistical extrapolation of analysis results for individual straight bridges. However, there has been a steady growth in the use of horizontally curved steel bridges in highways and interchanges in large urban regions. Given the large number of curved steel bridge structures in use in the US and abroad, with some of those structures being located in seismic zones, the feasibility of examining the effects of curvature on bridge vulnerability should be investigated. In this study, the seismic performance characteristics of an existing inventory of horizontally curved, steel, I-girder bridges located in Pennsylvania, New York, and Maryland were used to generate fragility curves. Representative fragility curves for horizontally curved, steel, I-girder bridges were estimated using Response Surface Metamodels (RSMs) in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology was used to construct fragility curves for select bridge components (bearings, columns and abutments). The curves were generated for four different, preexisting, performance states that represented slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage under varying levels of earthquake intensity. The generated fragility curves provided information related to seismic response of the bridge inventory that was investigated, such as radial deformations at the bearings being the most susceptible component to seismic loads.

Keywords:earthquake; vulnerability; curved; bridges;monte carlo simulation; response surface metamodels

来源出版物：Engineering Structures, 2012, 34: 21-32

Disaster chains initiated by the Wenchuan earthquake

Xu, Mengzhen; Wang, Zhaoyin; Qi, Lijian; et al.

Abstract:The Wenchuan earthquake caused numerous landslides and avalanches, which initiated causal chains of geological and ecological disasters. Field investigations and field experiments were performed in the earthquake area in 2008 and 2009 to study the disaster chains. Four types of disaster chains have been identified and seven cases have been studied. In the disaster chains, each episode was caused by the previous episode, or the causal episode. In the first chain, landslide created a quake lake, which was followed by landslide dam failure flood and very intensive fluvial process. The last episode of the chain was loss of habitats and destruction of aquatic biocommunities. The Tangjiashan and Huoshigou landslides initiated such a type of disaster chain. The second chain consisted of landslide, drainage system burying, debris flows, and development of new drainage system and intensive fluvial process. The Wenjiagou landslide initiated such a type of disaster chain. The third chain consisted of avalanches, grain erosion (unusual erosion of bare rocks due to insolation and temperature change), slope debris flows, and flying stones. Many such disaster chain events occurred on the mountains by the Minjiang River section from Yingxiu to Wenchuan. The fourth chain has only two episodes: avalanches during the earthquake occurring on elevation between 100 and 800 m from the riverbed, and rock falls or new avalanches due to increased slope angle of high mountains (400-1500 m from the riverbed). The Chediguan bridge was broken by such avalanches in July 2009, in which six were killed and more than 20 were injured. For all the disaster chains, the volume of mass movement in each episode was much less than the causal episode (previous episode). In other words, there was an attenuation along the causal chains. The attenuation factor is defined as the ratio of the volume of mass movement or affected area in one episode of a chain to the volume or affected area in the causal episode. The study concluded that the attenuation factor ranges from 0.02 to 0.3. Macro-invertebrates were used as indicator species to evaluate the ecological effect of the disaster chains. The number of species was greatly reduced by the causal chains, although the river section was not directly affected by landslides.

Keywords:Wenchuan earthquake; disaster chain; mass movement; debris flow; attenuation factor

来源出版物：Environmental Earth Sciences, 2012, 65(4): 975-985

A multi-agent optimization formulation of earthquake disaster prevention and management

Edrissi, Ali; Poorzahedy, Hossain; Nassiri, Habibollah; et al.

Abstract:Natural earthquake disasters are unprecedented incidents which take many lives as a consequence and cause major damages to lifeline infrastructures. Various agencies in a country are responsible for reducing such adverse impacts within specific budgets. These responsibilities range from before to after the incident, targeting one of the main phases of disaster management (mitigation, preparedness, and response). Use of OR in disaster management and coordination of its phases has been mostly ignored and highly recommended in former reviews. This paper presents a formulation to coordinate three main agencies and proposes a heuristic approach to solve the different introduced sub-problems. The results show an improvement of 7.5%-24% when the agencies are coordinated.

Keywords:OR in societal problem analysis; disaster management; multi-agent optimization; emergency response

来源出版物：European Journal of Operational Research, 2013, 229(1): 261-275

Response to the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and Tsunami disaster

Koshimura, Shunichi; Shuto, Nobuo

Abstract:We revisited the lessons of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami disaster specifically on the response and impact, and discussed the paradigm shift of Japan's tsunami disaster management policies and the perspectives for reconstruction. Revisiting the modern histories of Tohoku tsunami disasters and pre-2011 tsunami countermeasures, we clarified how Japan’s coastal communities have prepared for tsunamis. The discussion mainly focuses on structural measures such as seawalls and breakwaters and non-structural measures of hazard map and evacuation. The responses to the 2011 event are discussed specifically on the tsunami warning system and efforts to identify the tsunami impacts. The nation-widepost-tsunami survey results shed light on the mechanisms of structural destruction, tsunami loads and structural vulnerability to inform structural rehabilitation measures and land-use planning. Remarkable paradigm shifts in designing coastal protection and disaster mitigation measures were introduced, leading with a new concept of potential tsunami levels: Prevention (Level 1) and Mitigation (Level 2) levels according to the level of‘protection’. The seawall is designed with reference to Level 1 tsunami scenario, while comprehensive disaster management measures should refer to Level 2 tsunami for protection of human lives and reducing potential losses and damage. Throughout the case study in Sendai city, the proposed reconstruction plan was evaluated from the tsunami engineering point of view to discuss how the post 2011 paradigm was implemented in coastal communities for future disaster mitigation. The analysis revealed that Sendai city’s multiple protection measures for Level 2 tsunami will contribute to a substantial reduction of the tsunami inundation zone and potential losses, combined with an effective tsunami evacuation plan.

Keywords:the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and Tsunami disaster; Tsunami countermeasure; disaster resilience; post-disaster recovery and reconstruction

来源出版物：Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2015, 373(2053): 20140373

Influence of seismic design criteria on blast resistance of RC framed buildings: A case study

Parisi, Fulvio; Augenti, Nicola

Abstract:In the last decades iconic and public buildings in urban habitat have been subjected to terrorist attacks and many of them are located in earthquake-prone regions. This study is aimed at assessing the influence of seismic design criteria on blast resistance of RC framed structures. Two 3D models were developed and analysed for a case-study building: one was designed for earthquake resistance according to Eurocode 8 (EC8); the other was designed only for gravity loads according to codes and practice going back to the 1970s. Several blast scenarios were considered and a two-step analysis procedure was used. Local analysis was carried out to identify columns directly failing under blast scenarios, whereas global pushdown analysis was performed on each 3D damaged model to assess robustness. Dynamic increase factors at both material and structural levels were assumed. Flexural-shear interaction and limited strength of beam-column joints were also addressed in the case of EC8-nonconforming building. Local pressure-impulse analysis was carried out in addition to simplified static and dynamic analyses; the same numbers of collapsed columns were found for the EC8-conforming building, while static analysis was too conservative for the EC8-nonconforming building. Pressure-impulse diagrams let to predict residual load-carrying capacity of adjacent columns. Seismic design criteria provided sufficient robustness only against some blast scenarios. In the case of EC8-nonconforming building, inclined beams in the staircase induced higher robustness against explosions occurring there and global ductility reduced under increasing load-bearing capacity. The latter can enhance by increasing longitudinal rebar in a way to avoid flexural-shear interaction, and/or reducing stirrup spacing.

Keywords:RC framed buildings; blast resistance; seismic design; local analysis; pushdown analysis

来源出版物：Engineering Structures, 2012, 44: 78-93

Engineering measures for debris flow hazard mitigation in the Wenchuan earthquake area

Chen, Xiaoqing; Cui, Peng; You, Yong

Abstract:Avalanches and landslides caused by the Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmen Mountains area provide abundant loose solids for debris flows, and a large number of debris flows have occurred during the period 2008-2012. The engineering measures in certain gullies failed, causing serious damage and loss of life. Judging from the debris flow characteristics in the Wenchuan earthquake area, engineering measures should be better constructed after the active period of debris flows in severely affected areas. To reduce debris flow disasters, this paper proposes a mitigation method and design principle based on the transport capacity of the main river. A series of check dams with various opening sizes was designed by investigating and analyzing existing cases. Furthermore, a new type of drainage channel with prefabricated reinforced concrete boxes is proposed. Finally, a case study of the Xiaogangjian Gully, which is a typical debris flow gully in the Wenchuan earthquake area, is presented. This system of engineering measures is based on the main river's transport capacity and consists of five check dams with various opening sizes, a drainage channel with sidewalls constructed of prefabricated reinforcedconcrete boxes, and a debris flow basin at the base of the main gully. The debris flow mitigation measures constructed in the Xiaogang, jian Gully effectively resisted a debris flow with a 50-year return period that was triggered by rainfall on July 26, 2012. Specifically, these measures effectively protected a highway and minimized debris flow damage. Thus, the layout and engineered structures involved in this new engineering technique can provide a reference design for debris flow hazard mitigation.

Keywords:debris flow; engineering measures; drainage channel; check dam; Wenchuan earthquake

来源出版物：Engineering Geology, 2014, 11(1): 30-44

Timescape of the earthquake disasters in Iran: The intricacies of earthquake time and earthquake disaster risk reduction

Ibrion, Michaela; Mokhtari, Mohammad; Parsizadeh, Farokh; et al.

Abstract:Time is a crucial coordinate for seismology, though often its ubiquity is forgotten by society as it is taken for granted and its potential is unexplored within the arena of earthquake disaster risk reduction. Earthquake disasters build up over time. An earthquake is a dramatic context that takes just tiny units of time to bring an immense tragedy of human loss, suffering and destruction. This paper targets the exploration of the timescape for four large earthquake disasters in Iran: Bam in 2003, Rudbar in 1990, Tabas in 1978 and Buyin Zahra in 1962. An investigation of the intricacies of earthquake time and earthquake disaster time is performed for these four earthquake disasters which covers a time interval of 52 years. These large earthquake disasters are considered as chronological milestones for the Iranian seismic timescape. This contributes to model seismic patterns with the aim to reduce the epistemic uncertainty and encourage better earthquake preparedness and earthquake disaster risk reduction. It is found that two perspectives, a geological perspective and earthquake disaster survivors' perspective and their associated aspects of time present a great potential for earthquake disaster risk reduction. A dramatic repetition of earthquake disaster time not only in time, but also in various places in Iran, highlights that living with earthquakes in Iran requires a better articulation of the relationship between the time of nature and the time of society and local communities. Furthermore, learning to live with earthquake time requires a long-term mitigation of the earthquake hazard and improvement of the resilience of local communities.

Keywords:time; earthquake time; earthquake disaster time; golden time; timescape; earthquake disaster risk reduction

来源出版物：Geografiska Annaler Series A-Physical Geography, 2015, 97(S1): 197-216

Developing an adaptive global exposure model to support the generation of country disaster risk profiles

Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Aubrecht, Christoph; et al.

Abstract:Corresponding to increased realization of the impacts of natural hazards in recent years and the need for quantification of disaster risk, there has been increasing demand from the public sector for openly available disaster risk profiles. Probabilistic disaster risk profiles provide risk assessments and estimates of potential damage to property caused by severe natural hazards. These profiles outline a holistic view of financial risk due to natural hazards, assisting governments in long-term planning and preparedness. A Country Disaster Risk Profile (CDRP) presents a probabilistic estimate of risk aggregated at the national level. A critical component of a CDRP is the development of consistent and robust exposure model to complement existing hazard and vulnerability models. Exposure is an integral part of any risk assessment model, capturing the attributes of all exposed elements grouped by classes of vulnerability to different hazards, and analyzed in terms of value, location and relative importance (e.g. critical facilities and infrastructure). Using freely available (or available at minimum cost) datasets, we present a methodology for an exposure model to produce three independent geo-referenced databases to be used in national level disaster risk profiling for the public sector. These databases represent aggregated economic value at risk at 30 arc-second spatial resolution (approximately 1 × 1-km grid at the equator) using a top-down (or downscaling) approach. To produce these databases, the models used are: 1) a building inventory stock model which captures important attributes such as geographical location, urban/rural classification, type of occupancy (e.g. residential and non-residential), building typology (e.g. wood, concrete, masonry, etc.) and economic (replacement) value; 2) a non-building infrastructure density and value model that also corresponds to the fiscal infrastructure portion of the Gross Capital Stock (GCS) of a country; and 3) a spatially and sectorially disaggregated Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) model that relates to the production (flow) of goods and services of a country. These models can be adapted to produce-independently or cohesively-a composite exposure database. Finally, we provide an example of the model’s use in economic loss estimation for the reoccurrence of the 1882 Mw 7.8 Panama earthquake.

Keywords:Exposure model; Disaster risk assessment; Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Building inventory; Gross Capital Stock (GCS); Infrastructure; Urban; Agriculture

来源出版物：Earth-Science Reviews, 2015, 150: 594-608

Pre-Positioning Disaster Response Facilities and Relief Items

Renkli, Cigdem; Duran, Serhan; et al.

Abstract:Large-scale disasters cause enormous damage to people living in the affected areas. Providing relief quickly to the affected is a critical issue in recovering the effects of a disaster. Pre-disaster planning has an important role on reducing the arrival time of relief items to the affected areas and efficiently allocating them. In this study, a mixed integer programming model is proposed in order to pre-position warehouses throughout a potential affected area and determine the amount of relief items to be held in those warehouses. Time between the strike of the disaster and arrival of relief items at the affected areas is aimed to be minimized. In addition, using probabilistic constraints, the model ensures that relief items arrive at affected areas within a certain time window with certain reliability. Considering instable fault lines on which Istanbul is located, the proposed model is applied to the Istanbul case for pre-positioning warehouses a priori to the possible expected large-scale earthquake.

Keywords:humanitarian logistics; mixed integer programming; probabilistic constraints; disaster management

来源出版物：Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2015, 21(5): 1169-1185

Education: Can a bottom-up strategy help for earthquake disaster prevention?

Musacchio, G; Falsaperla, S; Bernhardsdottir, A. E; et al.

Abstract:To comply with the need to spread the culture of earthquake disaster reduction, we rely on strategies that involve education. Risk education is a long-term process that passes from knowledge, through understanding, to choices and actions thrusting preparedness and prevention, over recovery. We set up strategies for prevention that encompass child and adult education, as a bottom-up approach, from raising awareness to reducing potential effects of disruption of society. Analysis of compulsory school education in three European countries at high seismic risk, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy, reveals that generally there are a few State-backed plans. The crucial aspects of risk education concerning natural hazards are starting age, incompleteness of textbooks, and lack of in-depth studies of the pupils upon completion of their compulsory education cycle. Hands-on tools, immersive environments, and learn-by-playing approaches are the most effective ways to raise interest in children, to provide memory imprint as a message towards a culture of safety. A video game, Treme-treme, was prepared to motivate, educate, train and communicate earthquake risk to players/pupils. The game focuses on do's and don'ts for earthquake shaking, and allows children to think about what might be useful in the case of evacuation. Education of the general public was addressed using audio-visual products strongly linked to the social, historical and cultural background of each country. Five videos tackled rising of awareness of seismic hazards in Lisbon, the area surrounding Reykjavik, Naples, and Catania, four urban areas prone to earthquake disasters.

Keywords:disasters prevention; risk education; risk reduction; seismic hazard

来源出版物：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2016, 14(7): 2069-2086

Fast building damage mapping using a single post-earthquake PolSAR image: A case study of the 2010 Yushu earthquake

Zhai, Wei; Huang, Chunlin

Abstract:Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters. Efficiently and quickly acquiring building earthquake damage information can help to reduce the casualties after an earthquake. In this paper, for convenience, speed, and precision, building damage information is extracted using a single post-earthquake PolSAR image. In PolSAR images, the undamaged parallel buildings characterized by double-bounce scattering are different from the collapsed buildings characterized by volume scattering, but the undamaged oriented buildings are very similar to collapsed buildings because of their scattering mechanism ambiguity in the early traditional model-based decomposition. Therefore, the collapsed buildings are difficult to extract accurately. In this paper, the scheme of polarization orientation angle (POA)compensation is employed to enhance the double-bounce scattering power of the oriented buildings, and the difference in the relative contribution change rate of scattering components before and after POA compensation is proposed to further enhance the difference between collapsed buildings and oriented buildings, in order that the collapsed buildings can be extracted more accurately. The“4.14” Yushu earthquake, which occurred in Yushu County, Qinghai province of China, is used as the case study to test the proposed method, and an airborne high-resolution PolSAR image of the urban region of Yushu County is used in the experiment. The experimental results show that the accuracy of building damage information extraction can be improved by the use of the proposed method, compared with the traditional polarimetric classification.

Keywords:earthquake; PolSAR; collapsed buildings; damage mapping; polarization orientation angle

来源出版物：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2016, 14(7): 2069-2086

Earthquake preparedness: The case of Eastern UAE

Yagoub, M. M.

Abstract:During the last 30 years, UAE witnessed earthquakes that ranged from minor to moderate, with maximum magnitude of 5.1 that occurred in the Masafi area (eastern UAE, on March 11, 2002). Recent earthquakes that hit Iran such as on May 11, 2013, caused tremors and mild shaking of buildings in some UAE cities. Although the tremors are small in magnitude, their sequences apparently become an important research topic and deserve more assessment from different perspectives such as geographical, geological, engineering, and social. This is because low risk does not equal no risk. This study is concerned with public perceptions of earthquake preparedness (reduction of disaster impact) that can be measured by various variables such as developing an emergency plan, preparation of disaster supply kits, and training. The methodology consists of a survey of 470 people who live around the Masafi area, near Fujairah city, UAE. GIS and GPS were used for site selection in conducting the survey, and remote sensing was used as an aid in identification of buildings’ages. Results show that around 90% of the people surveyed have water tanks that can support them up to 3 days, and 60% of them normally buy food that can support them up to 2 days. Thirty percent of the respondents were familiar with storing first-aid kits and tools such as flashlights. The findings point to a need for more research regarding public awareness about earthquakes. The findings of this study may be useful for people who are involved in the four cornerstones of disaster risk reduction: community participation, public policy actions, safer construction and urban development, and development of a culture of prevention.

Keywords:earthquake; UAE; public awareness

来源出版物：Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2016, 9(19): 721

Towards disaster resilience: A scenario-based approach to co-producing and integrating hazard and risk knowledge

Davies, Tim; Beaven, Sarah; Conradson, David; et al.

Abstract:Quantitative risk assessment and risk management processes are critically examined in the context of their applicability to the statistically infrequent and sometimes unforeseen events that trigger major disasters. While of value when applied at regional or larger scales by governments and insurance companies, these processes do not provide a rational basis for reducing the impacts of major disasters at the local (community) level because in any given locality disaster events occur too infrequently for their future occurrence in a realistic timeframe to be accurately predicted by statistics. Given that regional and national strategies for disaster reduction cannot be effective without effective local disaster reduction measures, this is a significant problem. Instead, we suggest that communities, local government officials, civil society organisations and scientists could usefully form teams to co-develop local hazard event and effects scenarios, around which the teams can then develop realistic long-term plans for building local resilience. These plans may also be of value in reducing the impacts of other disasters, and are likely to have the additional benefits of improving science development, relevance and uptake, and of enhancing communication between scientists and the public.

Keywords:disaster risk quantification; risk management; community resilience; event and effects scenarios; coproduction of knowledge

来源出版物：International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015, 13: 242-247

责任编辑：卫夏雯

Estimating building inventory for rapid seismic vulnerability assessment: Towards an integrated approach based on multi-source imaging

Wieland, M.; Pittore, M; Parolai, S; et al.

We propose an integrated approach to estimating building inventory for seismic vulnerability assessment, which can be applied to different urban environments and be efficiently scaled depending on the desired level of detail. The approach employs a novel multi-source method for evaluating structural vulnerability-related building features based on satellite remote sensing and ground-based omnidirectional imaging. It aims to provide a comparatively cost- and time-efficient way of inventory data capturing over large areas. The latest image processing algorithms and computer vision techniques are used on multiple imaging sources within the framework of an integrated sampling scheme, where each imaging source and technique is used to infer specific, scale-dependent information. Globally available low-cost data sources are preferred and the tools are being developed on an open-source basis to allow for a high degree of transferability and usability. An easily deployable omnidirectional camera-system is introduced for ground- based data-capturing. After a general description of the approach and the developed tools and techniques, preliminary results from a first application to our study area, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, are presented.来源出版物：Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2012, (36): 70-83Remote sensing and earthquake damage assessment: Experiences, limits, and perspectivesDell’Acqua, Fabio; Gamba, PaoloAbstract:In this paper, a survey of the techniques and data sets used to evaluate earthquake damages using remote sensing data is presented. After a few preliminary definitions about earthquake damage, their evaluation scale, and the difference between identification of damage“extent” and identification of damage “level,” the advantages and limits of different remote sensing data sets are presented. Furthermore, a survey of proposed algorithms for data interpretation and earthquake damage extraction is presented, and two examples of these algorithms and their results are discussed. According to the outcome of this survey, some open issues are finally presented and discussed, identifying possible research lines as well as working solutions.

damage assessment; data fusion; urban areas