ANC in the Spotlight

SOUTH African politics is in turmoil after the countrys Constitutional Court - the highest court in the land - ruled that President Jacob Zuma had violated the constitution. The March ruling said Zuma should carry out the remedial actions outlined by the Public Protector， the anti-corruption watchdog， and repay taxpayers money used for non-security upgrades at his $16-million Nkandla private homestead. The ruling has prompted an unprecedented public backlash with calls from opposition members， civil society， church leaders and even members of Zumas own ruling African National Congress （ANC） for him to resign. Zuma has welcomed the court ruling and apologized to the nation， making it clear he wont resign.

It now remains to be seen if the ANC， Africas oldest political movement， will survive the fallout from this latest controversy and can prevail after the biggest threat to its political dominance since coming to power in 1994. Zumas critics say Nkandla， and other scandal allegations linked to him， have sullied the image and moral credibility of the ANC， which is inextricably associated with the vision of the partys most famous son， Nelson Mandela.

South Africa is struggling with drought， a weak economy， high unemployment and a possible ratings agency downgrade， meaning its immediate challenges are spread across a political， social and economic spectrum. Despite being battered on all these fronts， the ANCs top leadership group has pledged its support for Zuma， saying calls for the party to remove its leader were tantamount to calls for it to “tear itself apart.”

But with local government elections set for August 3， opposition parties have smelt blood and found unity in their drive to use the court ruling fallout to challenge the ANCs municipal majority at the polls. Two of these parties， the official opposition Democratic Alliance （DA）， who failed in an attempt to impeach Zuma， and the fast rising Economic Freedom Fighters （EFF）， understand that they could， in the long term， mount a genuine bid for control of the country at the general election in 2019 if they do well in August.

The ANC also knows that if it fares poorly at the August elections， it could force its hand to reconsider its support for Zuma. Yet removing its leader now will fragment the party - a political catch-22. At the same time， not removing Zuma from office means the ANC has made its decision as far as party unity and a moral stance is concerned. In this instance， the two options cannot co-exist. The beneficiaries of this decision will be the opposition parties， who will capitalize on the moral standpoint of not removing Zuma， and use it against the ANC at the local government elections.

The ANCs main support base is in rural South Africa， where social media and the court of public opinion are not as vitriolic against its leader as it is in urban areas. This is where the ANC will look to pin its hopes going forward， promising better service delivery and faster implementation of the National Development Plan， which aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. Getting the message out to the masses to continue supporting Zuma and the party will no doubt be high on its agenda.

The ANC is in a fight for its soul and the months ahead will require all the political persuasion of the charismatic Zuma to maintain social cohesion and the trust of his partys faithful.