篮球博士

Tom Mckleya

Fear can be an irrational thing. But of all the things that scare people， basketball players being afraid they wont be able to work in basketball after retiring is a rather small concern. The NBA and college ranks are filled with former players at every single level. Rasheed Wallace got hired in player development immediately after retirement. Rasheed Wallace. Fear about heart disease， saving enough for retirement， driving in the rain， remembering to record Cosmos -- these are all fears way more valid than basketball players being afraid they wont be able to work in basketball after retiring.

恐惧是一件缺乏理性的事情。但在所有让人类感到恐惧的事中，球员担心在退役后不能再从事篮球方面的工作，可谓是一个非常之小的担忧。在NBA和大学各级联赛中，处处可见前职业球员的身影。拉希德·华莱士在退役后迅速被雇佣成为了指导球员发展的助理教练。担心心脏病，为退休后的生活攒够钱，在雨中驾驶，不能忘记记录宇宙变化，这些都比球员担心自己退役后不能继续篮球方面的工作来的更重要。

Thats what made this curious ESPN.com story apparently written by Chris Broussard so……well， curious.

可正是这种担忧让克里斯·布洛萨德在体育电视网写下了这个不寻常的故事，对，就是不寻常的。

There is a growing concern that the rise in the popularity of basketball analytics（such as player efficiency rating and true shooting percentage） has led to more statbased personnel hires rather than ex-players becoming general managers.

“随着篮球分析学的流行度增加（诸如球员效率值、真实命中率），基于数据统计的人，相比过去，比球员更容易成为球队总经理。”

One former star in the NBA with years of front office experience said that there is a divide within front offices between those who are perceived to be stat guys and those who are considered basketball lifers.

一个有着多年球队管理经验的前NBA球星说，在球队管理层中，管理者，数据人员，以及一生从事篮球行业的人，他们之间还是有着本质区别的。

If there is a divide， thats a problem individual front offices absolutely need to figure out. Front offices need to be united. But the concern that quants① are taking jobs from explayers is really overblown. By my count， there are two NBA GMs who dont have lifelong ties to organized basketball： Daryl Morey in Houston and Sam Hinkie in Philadelphia. Other GMs all either played in college or the pros， worked in basketball in college or have worked only in basketball after college.

如果真的存在区别，那这就是球队管理层绝对需要弄清的问题。我们都知道，球队管理层需要和谐团结。但是，数据分析专家从退役球员那里夺走工作机会的担忧却是被过分鼓吹的。按照我的统计，只有两支NBA球队的总经理之前没有在篮球领域长久工作的经历，一个是休斯敦火箭的达雷尔·莫雷，另一个则是费城76人的萨姆·辛基。至于其他的球队的总经理们，要么在大学，要么在其他联赛中打过球，要么就是在大学中从事篮球工作或者在大学毕业后在篮球圈里工作。

So our thesis here -- that quants are taking all the GM jobs from ex-players -- is suspect. The requisite anonymous quotes are far worse.

因此，我们的结论如下：数据人员从前球员那里抢走篮球经理工作是极其可疑的，而文中不可或缺的匿名消息源的举证，看起来竟是如此苍白无力。

"Basketball guys who participated in the game through years of rigorous training and practice， decades of observation work through film and field participation work feel underutilized and under-appreciated and are quite insulted because their PhDs in basketball have been downgraded，" the former executive， who chose to remain anonymous， told ESPN NBA Insider Chris Broussard.

“那些常年经历严酷训练和练习，并有数十年比赛录像研究和临场经验积累的篮球从业人士觉得自己没有完全发挥能力，没有得到足够的赏识，而且还被极大地侮辱了，因为他们的篮球博士学位被低估了。”这位仍然保持匿名的前球队经理如是告诉ESPN NBA Insider栏目的克里斯·布洛萨德。

Whoa. You know， for PhDs in basketball to be downgraded， they need to have first actually existed. So let me help with that.

你要知道，对于篮球博士学位一直被低估这件事，首先，这个学位必须真实存在，我们才能继续愉快地讨论！那么，让我来深入探究下。

"Generally speaking， neither the [newer generation of] owners nor the analytic guys have basketball in their background，" the longtime executive told Broussard. "This fact makes it easy for both parties to dismiss the importance of having experience in and knowledge of the game."

“通常来说，新一代的球队老板和善于数据分析的新人都没有篮球背景，”这个从业多年的球队经理告诉布洛萨德，“这使得两者都看低了拥有比赛经验和知识的重要性。”

No， the newer owners typically dont have first-hand basketball experience. Except， well， Michael Jordan. But the issue seems to be what kind of basketball background counts according to this worried ex-player. Because unless you are using a strict， NBA-only， playersonly definition of basketball background， the anonymous exec is absolutely wrong.

是的，球队的新老板们并没有一手的篮球经验。当然，山猫的迈克尔·乔丹例外。但是，对于抛出那个观点并忧心忡忡的前球员而言，问题的关键在于怎样的篮球背景才真正算数。因为，除非你假设一个非常严厉苛刻的条件，比如必须用“NBA，球员”这个条件来定义篮球背景，不然，这位匿名的球队经理的说法是绝对错误的。

Take a look at the GMs in question and other recent hires.

让我们带着疑问来审视一下球队的总经理和近来发生的一些雇佣大事件吧。

Rob Hennigan， the young GM of the Magic， is considered a stats GM. He is also Division III Emerson Colleges all-time leading scorer. Sam Presti， the vanguard of the New Wave， played at Emerson too. His first job out of college？ He interned for the Spurs and convinced his boss to draft Tony Parker. His entire professional life has been in basketball.

罗伯·亨尼根，魔术年轻的总经理，被认为是一个数据至上的球队总经理，但同时他也是爱默生大学在三级联盟中的主要得分手。萨姆·普莱斯利，他是前新波浪队的前锋同时也曾在爱默生大学打球。他大学毕业之后的第一份工作是在马刺实习，并且说服了老板选择了托尼·帕克，他的整个职业生涯一直在篮球领域。

The Suns Ryan McDonough？ His entire professional career was spent working for the Boston Celtics （a basketball team） before getting hired by Phoenix. The Kings Pete DAlessandro？ In college， he worked as a video coordinator for a guy named Lou Carnesecca. After law school and a spell in politics， he worked as an agent and then under Chris Mullin （noted Basketball PhD） with the Warriors.

至于太阳队的莱恩·麦克多诺？在被太阳雇佣前，他的整个职业生涯都是在波士顿凯尔特人度过的。你说国王的皮特·德亚历桑德罗？哦，他在大学为一个叫卢·卡尔内塞卡的人作视频分析员。从法律学校毕业并在政治领域度过了一段时间后，他还做过球探，然后跟着克里斯·穆林与勇士队合作。

Masai Ujiri， the vaunted boss of the Raptors？ He played two years in college and six years in Europe before getting into scouting and， eventually， advanced metrics. The Blazers Neil Olshey worked in player representation and draft preparation before joining the Clippers in a player development role. （Also， Olsheys background isnt in advanced math： its in soap opera acting.） Bob Myers， who leads a front office invested in quant analysis， played four years at UCLA and was an agent before switching sides. Denvers Tim Connolly has worked in the NBA since 1996. Or， longer than Andre Miller.

马赛·乌杰里，猛龙骄傲的老板？他在大学打了两年篮球，然后又在欧洲打了六年才踏进了球探领域，最后，成为了该领域杰出的风向标。开拓者的总经理尼尔·奥尔谢在去快船做球员发展工作前，做过球员选秀和起草准备的工作。（而且，他的背景不是高等数学，而是电视剧表演）鲍勃·迈尔斯所领导的办公室，致力于数理统计分析领域，他在UCLA打过四年球并且在换工作之前做过球探。丹佛的蒂姆·康纳利从1996年起就在NBA工作，或许，比老米勒的时间还长。

And the leagues very latest GM hire， Phil Jackson， not only has a Basketball PhD， hes handed out a few， too.

而联盟最新雇佣的总经理，菲尔·杰克逊，他不仅有篮球博士学位，同时他还培养出来了一批人。

Lets look at that quote again.

让我们再来看下这段引用自匿名消息源的论据。

"Generally speaking， neither the [newer generation of] owners nor the analytic guys have basketball in their background，" the longtime executive told Broussard. "This fact makes it easy for both parties to dismiss the importance of having experience in and knowledge of the game."

“通常来说，新一代的球队老板和善于数据分析的新人都没有篮球背景，”这个从业多年的球队经理告诉布洛萨德，“这个现象使得这两者都低估了拥有比赛经验和篮球知识的重要性。”

Wrong. The so-called analytic guys just dont have the qualifications this anonymous ex-player feels are necessary for a Basketball PhD. Maybe Hennigan has a Masters in Basketball Administration， but no PhD in Basketball. That quoted ex-player is just mad that NBA playing experience is no longer the fastest track to one of those coveted NBA general manager jobs.

大错特错！这些所谓的善于数据分析的人，他们仅仅是没有达到匿名消息源所认同的篮球博士资格。也许亨尼根有一个篮球硕士学位，而不是博士。这位前球员仅仅是对拥有NBA篮球经历的人，在竞争总经理职位时不再具有优势而感到生气。

Should it be？ Well find that out as the NBA continues to diversify its front office hiring （which was once almost 100 percent ex-NBA players）. What the brilliant Amin Elhassan says in the video that accompanies Broussards piece is spot on： the reality is that quants arent taking over， front offices are just becoming more well-rounded. McDonough is a perfect example of the new style of GM： a tape-obsessed "basketball lifer" who knows the cap like the back of his hand and is totally comfortable using advanced metrics. Hybrids --double-majors in Basketball and Math， not fullon quants -- are the real future of the NBA GM position.

应该这样么？我们发现，以前的管理层几乎都是由前NBA球员在担任，而现在的联盟持续推进管理层多样化。饱负才气的阿明·艾尔哈桑就在视频中说关于布洛萨德的调查结果：数据分析专家并没有占据总经理职位，事实上，球队管理层只是变得更加多才多艺了。麦克多诺是一个用来佐证新型球队总经理的极佳例子：他是一个对篮球录像了如指掌的职业篮球录像分析师，并且对使用先进数据分析工具感到毫无压力。拥有篮球和数学双重专业，而不是单纯的数据分析工兵，这种混合型人才将会是NBA总经理的未来走向。

If that leaves some ex-players behind， so be it. If teams suffer for it， theyll start hiring ex- players exclusively again. But making this an open partisan mess by giving inflammatory quotes to a reporter sure isnt going to help bridge the gap. Itd be much better for these ex-players feeling left behind to make themselves indispensable to NBA owners and decision-makers. Complaining about the wind wont stop it.

如果这种人才把一些退役球员甩在身后，那就顺其自然吧！如果球队因为雇佣数据专家而遭了殃，那么他们又会重新开始雇佣球员。但是通过将煽动性的言论透露给记者，制造一种公开的党派之争，是绝不会有助于在两者中搭建沟通桥梁的。对于这些感到遭到遗弃的前球员来说，这样的抱怨会使他们在NBA老板和决策者中变得不可或缺，但是，抱怨这种变革之风并不会阻止时代的洪流！