A Turning Point?

Russia’s new proposal on the Syrian crisis raises hope amid the uncertainty By Yu Lintao

HUMAN SHIELDS: Young Syrian volunteersdeployed to Al Mamun telecommunications facility outside of Damascus on September 8 to protect Syria against a baseless war of aggression

U.S. President Barack Obama’s embrace of the Russian suggestion to put Syrian chemical weapons under international control has brought a temporary sense of relief to the international community. The seemingly positive turn at least brings the prospect of giving the diplomatic process more time to handle the Syrian crisis.

Observers claimed that the step has undoubtedly presented a way out of the highly tense current situation for both sides in the near term. But in the long run, they said, the risk of a Syrian war still remains as it is possible the two sides will engage in endless haggling over the inspection of Syrian chemical weapon—much like what happened in Iraq years ago.

If inspection delays do occur, observers predicted Washington would probably turn to military action to settle the problem, which will surely add new troubles to the turmoil in the Middle East and impact related countries.

Diplomatic overture

Just before the U.S. Congress was set to begin debating whether to approve a possible U.S.strike against Syria, Russia proposed a fresh initiative on the Syrian crisis inspired by U.S.Secretary of State John Kerry’s seemingly off-the-cuff statement in a London news conference.

When asked whether there is anything Assad could do to stop U.S. strikes, Kerry said, “Sure, he could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week...without delay and allow the full and total accounting for that, but he isn’t about to do it and it can’t be done, obviously.”

Kerry might not have meant his words sincerely at that time, but Russia soon took up the idea and it was welcomed by Syria.

Observers said the Russian proposal would be like extinguishing the fire before it could reach the “powder keg” of the Middle East, offering a solution to the respective dilemmas of both Damascus and Washington.

“For Obama, if the motive of the planned punitive strike is to stop the use of chemical weapons in Syria as he claims, the Russian proposal could achieve that end without a drop of blood spilled. Washington could avoid a military attack unpopular both at home and abroad,”Yu Guoqing, an associate researcher with the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS), toldBeijing Review.” And for the Assad administration, giving up its chemical weapons could at least avoid suffering the disaster of war for the moment.”

Though the move is seen as the fi rst step toward a political solution of the Syrian crisis,Yu worried that the issue might yet run into problems over the inspection of Syrian chemical weapons, much like the nuclear weapon inspections in Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Uncertainty remains whether the United States would resort to military action or not if the inspection on Syria’s chemical arsenal meets dif fi culties in the future, Yu said.

Li Shaoxian, Vice President of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR)and a senior researcher on Middle East studies, said the operation of chemical arsenal inspection in Syria is actually very dif fi cult despite the Assad administration’s sincere willingness to give up chemical weapons for the sake of peace under the current situation.

He said that on one hand, it’s uncertain whether the Syrian opposition’s share of the chemical arsenals in the country will be included in the inspection. On the other hand, the opposition is unwilling to see Washington abandon military action on Assad’s administration. It is possible that the opposition will create problems for the diplomatic process, including the chemical arsenal inspection.

It cannot be ruled out that Washington could continue to make an issue of the chemical arsenal inspection, said Li.

In a nationally televised speech on September 11, Obama said he ordered the U.S.military to maintain its “current posture to keep the pressure on Assad and to be in a position to respond if diplomacy fails.” Though Obama called the Russian offer an encouraging sign, he warned that “it’s too early to tell whether this offer will succeed, and any agreement must verify that the Assad administration keeps its commitments.”

In the meantime, the United States has already provided weapons for the Syrian opposition. Opposition spokesman Khaled Saleh confirmed in a news conference on September 10 that Washington has provided lethal aid to them. France is also still preparing for military action as the diplomatic process is ongoing.

Potential risk remains

In Li’s view, the risk of a Syrian war remains as the removal of the current Assad administration is a fi xed policy of the United States.

Li said the current Syrian Government as well as its allies Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah are seen as the major threats of the United States and its ally Israel in the region following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gadha fi.

In some sense, Li declared the momentarily shelving of the military strike on Syria is also due to Washington’s inability to fi nd suitable political forces to replace the Assad administration.

With its unique geographic position and rich energy resources, Syria plays a sign ifi cant role in geo-politics. It is also seen as the “beating heart”of Arab nationalism. After the regime change of Iraq and Libya, the current Syrian administration has become the last kindling of Arab nationalism in the Arab world, which observers claimed is one of the major reasons why the United States is determined to remove the Assad administration even by use of force.

Tian Wenlin, an associate researcher of CICIR, said the Arab world has been plagued by disputes and wars in the last hundred years.One major reason for this is that the Arab countries have not united together, which leads to foreign interference in regional affairs.

“If the Assad administration were removed,the last kindling of Arab nationalism for unity would disappear. It is very bad for the rejuvenation of the Arab world,” said Tian.

Though the Obama administration said their potential attack would be in the form of a limited strike, observers believe the situation may become so explosive that the entire region could be dragged into the vortex of war.

Yu claimed that even the limited strike would bring the Assad administration a deadly blow as the opposition would take the opportunity to smash the current Syrian authority. Syria would then be mired in new chaos, with the regional pattern changed and regional forces affected.

“Iran would be further isolated if it loses its Syrian ally and suffer more threats from the United States,” said Yu.

Li even claimed that the major impetus of Washington’s removal of the Damascus authority is to weaken the influence of Tehran, an enemy of Washington, in the region or even overthrow the current Iranian Government.

The Shia alliance composed of Iran, Syria,Iraqi Shia and Hezbollah in Lebanon has formed an anti-U.S. and anti-Israel alliance in the region.

Efforts for peace

Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis, Russia and China have insisted on the peaceful settlement of the crisis through political dialogue and have made their own efforts jointly and respectively to that end.

At the very critical moment of a possible U.S.military strike, the Russian proposal alleviated the crisis once again.

Yu said it is well known that Syria is a major ally of Russia in the region. Russia has its own interests in Syria.

Russia and Syria have kept a traditional ally relationship since the Cold War, forming close military and economic relations. Tartus Port on the Mediterranean coast of Syria has long been used as a naval base of Russia and the only Mediterranean fueling spot of Russia. The base is of strategic sign ifi cance for Russia to prevent the eastern expansion of NATO and respond to con fl icts in the Middle East.

“Russia also worries that the further deterioration of the Syrian crisis may affect the stability of the North Caucasus of Russia,” said Yu.“Though Russia might not directly involve in a possible Syrian war, it would not allow the West to use force on Syria easily.”

China welcomed Russia’s new proposal swiftly and urged the United States to proceed with extreme caution and return to the United Nations to discuss the Syrian crisis.

And days before, during the G20 Summit in Russia, Chinese President Xi Jinping also told Obama that a military strike could not solve the problem and that a political solution was the correct way out.

“The non-interference of internal affairs principle and peaceful settlement of Syrian crisis are the fi rm stance of China,” said Yu. “China doesn’t want to see Syria mired in a new war which would hurt the Syrian people most.”

Yu added that China is more and more likely to make its own voice heard in international arena to claim and defend its own interests—even though it has few stakes in the Syrian issue.