A Demographic Transformation

By LI LI

A Demographic Transformation

By LI LI

Structural imbalances and greater mobility have become China’s major demographic challenges

(Left) PRENATAL CLASS: A doctor gives a prenatal lecture to pregnant women from migrant families at a community health care center in Minhang District, Shanghai CELEBRATING LONGEVITY: Dancers perform for senior citizens at a rest home in Nanjing,Jiangsu Province, on October 5

The world’s population officially hit 7 billion on October 31, with many countries around the world choosing their own symbolic baby, holding rallies and other events to mark the latest stage of the global population growth.

“With planning and the right investments in people now … our world of 7 billion can have thriving, sustainable cities, productive labor forces that can fuel economic growth,youth populations that contribute to the wellbeing of economies and societies, and a generation of older people who are healthy and actively engaged in the social and economic affairs of their communities,” the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)said in a report entitled The State of World Population 2011: People and Possibilities in a World of 7 Billion.

According to the report, the population milestone “will be marked by achievements,setbacks, and paradoxes.”

“There is much to celebrate in world population trends over the last 60 years, especially the average life expectancy, which leapt from about 48 years in the early 1950s to about 68 in the first decade of the new century. Infant deaths plunged from about 133 in 1,000 births in the 1950s to 46 per 1,000 in the period from 2005 to 2010.”

In light of growing concerns about the global economy, the UNFPA report highlights fi nancial dangers caused by population changes facing both industrialized and developing countries.

“In some of the poorest countries, high fertility rates hamper development and perpetuate poverty, while in some of the richest countries, low fertility rates and too few people entering the job market are raising concerns about prospects for sustained economic growth and the viability of social security systems,” the report says.

The UNFPA report projects that by 2025 India will have 1.46 billion people and overtake China’s 1.39 billion to be the most populous country.

The world population reached 5 billion in 1987 and 6 billion in 1999. A UN report published in May predicts a global population of 9.3 billion by 2050, and more than 10 billion by the end of this century.

According to the National Population and Family Planning Commission(NPFPC), the proportion of China’s population against the world’s population has dropped from 22 percent to 19 percent over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, China’s infant mortality rate and maternal mortality rate have dropped to the lowest among developing countries. The average life expectancy of Chinese citizens has increased from 68 years old 30 years ago to 73.5,which matches the standard of moderately developed countries.

“Without China’s family planning policy,the world population would have surpassed 7 billion fi ve years ago,” Zhai Zhenwu, Dean of the School of Sociology and Population Studies of Renmin University of China, told Xinhua.

Despite its developing country status,the stable low birth rates have propelled China into an era of low population growth.Structural imbalances of population, such as an aging society and a skewed sex ratio at birth, have replaced explosive growth to become the country’s top demographic challenges.

“Population is not the smaller, the better,” said Zhao Baige, Vice Minister of the NPFPC, on the sideline of an international conference commemorating the World Population Day in July. She told the BeijingbasedGuangming Dailythat it is essential to keep the population balanced in structure and that the priority of China’s population management is shifting from quantity control to quality improvement.

According to results of China’s latest census conducted in 2010, China’s population still remains the world’s largest at 1.37 billion people. But it grew by less than 1 percent annually in the last decade. China’s fertility rate was less than 1.5 children per couple in 2000-10. It is on par with, or lower than, those of developed countries such as the United States, France and Spain.

Unbalanced ratio

China’s latest census showed the country’s sex ratio at birth was 118.06 in 2010,which means there were 118 male births compared to 100 female. Worldwide, the normal sex ratio at birth is between 103 and 107.

“China’s skewed sex ratio will have serious implications for marriage and even hamper the country’s economic growth and social stability,” Peng Xizhe, Dean of the School of Social Development and Public Policy of Fudan University in Shanghai, toldShanghai Financial News. Peng also predicted that China’s sex ratio at birth will further tilt toward boys over the next decade.

According to a national plan on dealing with an aging society released in September,China’s total population of senior citizens,people of 60 years age and older, will grow from 178 million in 2011 to 221 million in 2015 while its proportion against the total population will reach 16 percent.

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“A welfare state must keep its commitments to its senior citizens. However, the provision of welfare will become unsustainable when the population of the elderly keeps growing and the working population keeps shrinking,” Cai Yong, a visiting scholar of the School of Social Development and Public Policy of Fudan University, toldXinmin Evening News.

At the international conference commemorating the World Population Day, Li Bin, Minister of the NPFPC, said that over the next fi ve years, new demographic challenges facing China include the enormous pressure the population exerts on resources and environment; higher labor costs as the working-age population begins to decline after reaching its peak; new challenges to social administration due to greater population mobility and the accelerated urbanization;and a rapidly aging population with a longterm skewed gender ratio.

Li said to deal with these challenges, China will continue to maintain a low birth rate,further develop its human resources, improve its social security system and services for the elderly and promote gender equality in society.

Policy at the crossroads

To achieve balanced population development in the long run, a growing number of population experts have suggested the government take measures to ensure the population maintains a moderate fertility rate.

There has been growing speculation that the government might relax the one-child policy, which was introduced in 1980 in cities as a temporary measure to curb surging population growth, and allow more couples to have a second child. Rural families in China can have a second child if their fi rst is a girl.

Zeng Yi, Director of the Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies of Peking University, said if the current birth control policy stayed unchanged, China’s labor force would be reduced by 100 million per decade from 2030 when people aged 65 years and older will account for 28 percent of the total population.

Zeng proposed the one-child policy be gradually replaced by a more fl exible two-child policy accompanied with limits of late childbirth and birth intervals of three to four years.

“On the premise of setting up proper late childbirth limits and proper length of birth intervals, the two-child policy can be made open to all families,” said Zeng. He explained the two-child policy would greatly ease labor shortages, and late childbirth limits and prolonged birth intervals would prevent the total population from rebounding in the short term.

Mu Guangzong, a professor at the Institute of Population Research of Peking University, said the government should move to allow all families to have a second child in tune with the country’s demographic transition. Analyzing risks harbored by families with only one child, Mu wrote that families would be devastated if the child died prematurely. The only child in a family also faces the unprecedented heavy burden of taking care of the elderly and is more prone to psychological problems during his/her growth.

In July, China’s southern Guangdong Province officially asked for the Central Government’s permission to loosen up the one-child policy in the province by allowing urban couples where either spouse is an only child to have a second child as a pilot program.Like most parts of China, Guangdong now only allows urban couples where both parents are single children to have a second child.

But there have been no signs the government has decided on any adjustments so far.

In an interview with theEconomy& Nation Weekly, Li of the NPFPC said that China’s basic condition as a developing country with a colossal population of more than 1.3 billion remains unchanged.“Population reproduction is far more complicated than material reproduction and should be tackled prudently. Loosening up the family planning policy is far from an easy key to all the problems,” said Li.

To deal with its demographic challenges, China will continue to maintain a low birth rate, further develop its human resources, improve its social security system and services for the elderly and promote gender equality in society