中国专家：蛇、蟾蜍或能感知地震

吕　飞

Forty-eight hours before a devastating earthquake ripped through southwestern China，Jiang Weisong，director of the seismology bureau in the southern city of Nanning，worried that a tremor was imminent.

His reason? The cobras at nearby snake farms were behaving strangely.

Theyd stopped eating，and they were jumping in their cages， says Mr.Jiang，who videotaped the unusual behavior in the days leading up to the earthquake.We believed there might be a big quake，but we werent sure where it would be.

Two days later，one of the worst earthquakes in three decades pummeled Chinas southwestern Sichuan province.

Despite decades of study，there are still no reliable systems for predicting earthquakes.But Mr.Jiangs research is reviving a question that has long occupied the gray zone between science and folklore： whether animals can pick up signals undetectable to humans to predict seismic events.

The theory has drawn skepticism，though not outright dismissal，from Western scientists.“You cant just dismiss this out of hand，” says Joseph Kirschvink，a professor of geobiology at the California Institute of Technology.“Its not unreasonable for these animals to have evolved seismic-escape responses in this fashion.” He believes more study is needed，but notes that snakes，as vertebrates，“need navigation systems，and theyre very sensitive to vibrations in the ground.”

In China，cobras are a restaurant delicacy raised on farms.In 2006，Mr.Jiang and his team in Nanning started an unusual earthquake-detection scheme that involves monitoring dozens of snake nests 24 hours a day for signs of erratic behavior prior to earthquakes.Mr.Jiang claims the snakes have already predicted numerous small tremors.

In 373 B.C.，historians recorded that rats，snakes and weasels abandoned the Greek city of Helice in droves just days before a quake devastated the city.After the December 2004 Asian earthquake and tsunami，officials in Sri Lanka，Thailand and elsewhere reported that herds of antelopes，elephants，and deer fled to hilltop safety just minutes before the wave hit，leading to a remarkably low number of animal casualties.

The Chinese have long given credence to the role of animals in predicting earthquakes.In 1975，Chinese authorities evacuated roughly a million people from the city of Haicheng in northeastern China ahead of a massive earthquake，in part based on the odd behavior of dozens of animals，including snakes that mysteriously emerged from hibernation despite freezing temperatures.

A later report by Chinese researchers noted strange animal behavior prior to the quake，including snakes found frozen on the road … chickens refusing to enter the coop，pigs rooting at their fence，cows breaking their halters and escaping.The report also note that“rats appeared to behave as though drunk，and police dogs ，refused to obey commands.”

The next year，after an earthquake in Tangshan killed hundreds of thousands，a United Nations report found that residents of one nearby county had managed to evacuate after they noticed nocturnal animals such as rats running around during the daytime.

In the wake of the recent quake，Chinese Web sites and newspapers are buzzing with new reports about strange animal behavior leading up to the disaster.One of the most unusual reports comes from Mianzhu，a southwestern city battered by the quake.Prior to the quake，thousands of toads flooded the city streets in an event so bizarre a local TV news team reported on it.

“Could this be a sign that a natural disaster is coming?” asked a Chinese newscaster on May 10th，two days before the quake struck.The video is posted on YouTube.

David Bickford，a toad expert at the National University of Singapore，described the footage as “very，very strange，” but says its likely a “freakish coincidence.” He says toads sometimes travel en masse to breeding sites，or emerge in groups when large numbers of young are born at the same time.Nonetheless，he acknowledges that “frogs and toads communicate using sound，and some may be sensitive enough to detect vibrations in the earth.”

汶川大地震发生前48小时，南宁市地震局局长蒋维松就担心可能会发生地震。

他的理由是什么呢?附近养蛇场的眼镜蛇举止异常。

蒋维松说，“这些蛇近期急躁不安，不进食，跳进笼子里；我们相信可能会发生大地震，但无法确定哪里会发生地震。他用录像机拍摄下了地震前几天眼镜蛇的异常举止。”

两天之后，中国西南省份四川发生了三十年来最为严重的一次地震。

尽管进行了数十年的研究，但人类目前仍缺乏可靠的地震预测系统。不过，蒋维松的研究使一种长期以来处于科学和民间传说之间灰色地带的问题再次引起人们的关注：动物是否能感知人类无法探测到的信号，进而预测到地震。

西方科学家虽然没有全盘否定这一理论，但一直对其持怀疑态度。加州理工学院地理生物学教授约瑟夫·基尔希文克说，“你不能完全否定这种说法，这些动物经过进化，作出这样的地震逃生反应并非没有可能。”他认为还需要进行更多的研究，不过他也指出，蛇属于脊椎动物，“需要导向系统，而且它们对大地的振动非常敏感。”

在中国，有专门的养蛇场，一些餐馆还提供用蛇制作的菜肴。2006年，蒋维松和他的小组在南宁开始进行一项不同寻常的地震探测计划，需要对数十个蛇窝进行全天24小时监测，记录蛇群在地震前是否有异常举止。蒋维松称，这些蛇已经预测到了很多轻微的地震。

根据历史学家的记录，公元前373年，希腊海利斯城发生大地震前，有很多老鼠、蛇和臭鼬纷纷迁出城。2004年12月亚洲地震和海啸发生之后，斯里兰卡、泰国等地的官员报告称，在海啸发生前几分钟，成群的羚羊、大象和鹿逃到山顶安全的地方，因此动物的伤亡数量非常低。

中国人很早以前就相信动物在预测地震方面的功能。在1975年年初海城大地震前，中国有关部门疏散了约100万人，部分原因就是发现很多动物出现反常举止，比如，冬眠的蛇居然不顾天寒地冻从洞里爬了出来。

中国研究人员在之后的一份报告中指出了地震前动物的反常举止，例如冻死在路上的蛇、鸡不回窝、猪紧攀上围栏、牛挣脱索具跑掉。报告还说，老鼠看起来就像是喝醉了一样，警犬拒绝服从命令。

第二年唐山地震发生后，联合国的一份报告指出，在唐山附近的一个县城，居民们发现老鼠等本是夜间活动的动物在大白天跑来跑去，于是进行了疏散。

汶川地震发生后，中国的网站和报纸纷纷报道震前动物出现的奇怪反应。最不寻常的报道来自地震中受灾的绵竹。地震前，数千只蟾蜍涌向街头，这种现象非常奇怪，当地的电视新闻还进行过报导。

5月10日，也就是地震前两天，一位新闻主播在电视节目中问道，这是不是要发生自然灾害的征兆呢?现在这个视频在YouTube上可以看到。

新加坡国立大学的蟾蜍专家大卫·比克福德说，“这个视频非常非常的奇怪，不过他说这很可能是一种奇特的巧合。”他说，蟾蜍有时会往繁殖地大批迁移，或是在有大量幼蟾同时孵化出来后成群出现。不过，他承认，“青蛙和蟾蜍都是通过声音进行交流的，有些可能非常敏感，可以探测到大地的振动。”★