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PREDICTABLY the U.S.A. is still regarded as the worlds greatest power, according to an opinion poll carried out by Harris Interactive of America. The 6,645 respondents aged between 16 and 64 came from Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Britain and the U.S. Perhaps more surprisingly for Chinese people, some 93 percent of the French, 90 percent of Americans, 88 percent of Italians, 87 percent of Germans and Britons, and 86 percent of Spaniards rated China as the worlds second greatest power.

In the recently released report The World in 2008, respected British magazine The Economist predicts that this year will witness a shift from the political and economic order that has prevailed since 1945 known as “Pax Americana” (American Peace), to a Pax Sinica (Chinese peace). China is expected to become the worlds largest exporter, outdistancing Germany, and become the second largest importer, trailing only the U.S. It may overtake America in numbers of broadband Internet users, emerging as the worlds leader in e-business. The Olympic host is also likely to top the gold medal tally in Beijing this August. A few years ago many Chinese people would have been proud of these figures and predictions. But today a more mature outlook is leading many citizens to question whether their nation has really joined the “great power” league, despite the perceptions of many foreigners.

The Beijing-based Global Times newspaper recently conducted a survey of households in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan and Chongqing. Among the 1,300 respondents, 55 percent believed China could not be called a world power. This is a five percent increase over the same figure in 2006, despite surging economic growth throughout this period.

So why is there such a discrepancy between Western views of China as a superpower and the perceptions of the Chinese people? “Participants in Harris Interactives survey may have developed their ideas about China in a variety of ways,” says He Liangliang, a commentator with Hong Kongs Phoenix Satellite TV. “One is direct experience. The number of Western people traveling to China remains relatively small, but most of them regularly purchase or are using Chinese goods. The other main way people form an image of China is through media reports, be they on TV or in print. The forthcoming Olympics has also enhanced the nations image,” he adds.

The majority of respondents to the Global Times survey think the image of China as a superpower stems from the countrys vast geographic area and huge population. Prof. Shi Yinhong, working with the International Relations College at Renmin University of China, holds that the PRC is indeed a power in terms of territory and numbers of people. Furthermore, the countrys astonishing GDP, gross foreign trade value and permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council reinforce this view. But Shi also cautiously points out that China is not an all-encompassing power in the American mould. Chinas military force, for example, is no competition for Americas. And the country does not wield the same international political influence as the U.S. or the E.U. Shi describes China as “an overestimated power.”

In expressing these views, it seems Professor Shi speaks for a large number of Chinese people. Although the economy keeps expanding exponentially, respondents to the Global Times survey still see a big gap between their homeland and the Western giants, particularly America. Although only holding four percent of the worlds population, the United States contributes 27 percent of the worlds GDP, while its arms budget represents half the worlds military spending. Chinas GDP is only 27 percent of Americas, despite having a population roughly four times the size. Chinas per capita GDP is only one-sixteenth of Americas. Furthermore, at the end of 2007 the World Bank issued correction data on economic aggregates for 146 countries. Chinas GDP was found to be 40 percent smaller than previously estimated, casting a shadow over earlier predictions that China would surpass the U.S. by 2012 and lead the global economy.

Professor Zhang Yiwu of Peking University interprets the Global Times survey as meaning Chinese people are becoming increasingly “objective in their self-evaluation” and have developed a more comprehensive understanding of “power.” Areas of soft power like education are just as important as the more obvious areas of hard power. Zhangs two areas of research at the Chinese Department of Peking University are the cultural ramifications of the profound changes wrought by globalization, and cultural identity in an era of modernization. For him, the poll shows that although development in the last three decades has been astonishingly rapid, it doesnt change fundamental problems like the growing gap between rich and poor, and low levels of per capita GDP. “Thus far, the countrys potential has not been given full play,” Zhang claims.

For the 900 million people living in rural areas, the average disposable personal income remains a low RMB 3,000 a year. In contrast, figures from the National Statistics Bureau of China show that an average urban resident earns an income three times that of the average farmer. This is the key factor generating the mass migration to Chinas urban areas and the consequent pressure on cities like Beijing and Shanghai.

The survey also reveals areas of concern for many Chinese as the country develops. Around 52 percent think corruption amongst officials is a serious threat to a good national image. Forty-four percent think shoddy and counterfeit products are also undermining Chinas reputation, while 41 percent rate improper behavior like excessive noise in public as a problem.

A massive 85 percent of respondents believe the U.S. is the “most important bilateral relationship for China.” Seventy-four percent claim Taiwan is an issue that may damage relations, while 37 percent single out trade friction as a possibly damaging area of contention. Tsinghua Universitys Professor Yan Xuetong, an expert in international studies, says that the fact more Chinese are paying attention to the Sino-U.S. relationship is not an indication of more harmonious interactions, but rather reflects an escalation of tensions over issues like trade.

Despite this, the U.S. is still far and away the most popular choice for locals planning to study overseas. It was the first preference of about 31 percent of respondents, a figure significantly higher than the second most popular contender. Professor Jin Canrong of Renmin University claims this shows “Chinese are eager to learn from the worlds sole superpower.” Perhaps the training and experience these students bring back to their homeland will help forge a reality closer to the superpower image held by many foreigners.