中国第六次提高利率

王旭忠

BEIJING, Dec. 21—China is raising the interest rates for the sixth time this year in a fresh move to cool a red-hot economy expected to expand 11.5 percent for the full year and to battle inflation that has climbed to an 11-year high.

China would raise the one-year deposit interest rate by 0.27 basis points to 4.14 percent and the lending rate by 18 basis points to 7.47 percent as of Friday, the central bank said in a statement posted on its website.

The move, which aimed to “prevent the economy from overheating and the structural price rises from evolving into evident inflation”, followed the “tight” monetary policy for 2008 made by the Central Economic Work Conference held earlier this month.

The key economic meeting decided to shift Chinas monetary policy from a “prudent” stance, which the country had followed for the last 10 years, to “tightening”.

Different from the five previous such moves, the central bank lowered the interest rate for sight deposits by nine basis points, to encourage people to put more money in the bank for a fixed period, rather than having it readily available for stock or property investment.

“Lower rates for sight deposits and unequal rises in deposit and lending rates will narrow the rate gap between credits and deposits and help China check excessive credit growth,” said Guo Tianyong, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics.

With the country still facing inflationary pressure, the central bank lifted the rates to relieve the publics expectations for inflation, a spokesman with the central bank said.

Rising food prices, especially pork, the countrys meat staple, pushed Chinas inflation rate to a new 11-year high of 6.9 percent in November. The inflation rate for the first 11 months was 4.6 percent, compared with the governments target of three percent.

Analysts said peoples expectations for further price rises also played a role in rising inflation by breaking the balance between supply and demand.

“If the move fails to ease inflationary pressure in a certain period of time, the central bank may announce more hikes in interest rates and bank reserve requirement,” said Tang Min, the chief economist with the Asian Development Bank mission in China.

Also on Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department, despite pressure from Congress, declined to designate China as a currency manipulator whose policies hurt its trading partners.

Tang Yaling, an expert with the Bank of China, said that “the interest rate hike will provide more space for the yuans appreciation, and both the hike and the news from the U.S. will help ease the upward pressure on the Chinese currency.”

“The central bank chose a good opportunity to raise the interest rates because the U.S. dollar was on the rise these days,” she added.

Earlier this month, China told its commercial banks to hold more money in reserve for the 10th time this year. It was also in an effort to cool the booming economy and slow rising inflation.

The reserve requirement ratio was raised by one percentage point, the largest increase this year.

12月21日来自北京的消息，我国年内将第六次提高利率。这一新举措是为了防止经济增长过热，据预计全年经济会增长11.5%，同时也是为了抑制通货膨胀，它已达到了11年来的新高。

央行在其网站上宣布，从星期五开始，我国将一年期存款利率上调0.27个百分点提高到4.14%，一年期货利率提高到7.47%，上调0.18个百分点。

此次调整，旨在“防止经济增长过热，防止物价由结构性上涨演变为明显的通货膨胀”。它是为了贯彻根据本月初召开的中央经济工作会议所部署的从2008年起我国要实行从紧的货币政策。

这次重要的中央经济工作会议决定，我国将改变实施了近十年的稳健的货币政策，改为实施从紧的货币政策。

与过去的五次调整不同，央行将活期利率下调0.09个百分点。下调活期利率是为鼓励人民定期存款，而不是把活期存款随时用于投资股票或房地产。

中央财经大学教授郭田勇认为，“活期利率下调以及存贷款利率的非对称加息能使银行减少利差，抑制银行放贷冲动。”

央行发言人表示，由于我国今年通货压力凸显，央行通过调整利率来降低公众对通货膨胀的担心。

食品价格持续上涨，尤其是猪肉价格的上涨，使我国11月份的通货膨胀率上涨了6.9%，创11年来的新高。与政府的预计目标3%相比，前11个月的通货膨胀率已达4.6%。

有分析人士称，老百姓对未来价格依旧上涨的判断，这也从另一个方面打破了供需平衡，导致了通货膨率的上涨。

中国亚洲发展银行首席经济学家汤敏称，“如果此次调整在一段时间内不能缓解通货膨胀压力，央行可能继续提高利率和增加银行储备金。”

星期四，美国财政部顶住了国会的压力，拒绝称中国为货币操纵国。美国国会认为我国的政策对贸易伙伴不利。

中国银行专家唐亚玲说，“利率提高会为人民币的升值提供更多的空间。利率提高和来自美国的消息将能缓解中国货币不断上涨的压力。”

她还说：“央行选择的提高利率的时机很好。因为近期美元也在不断上涨。”

本月初，商业银行一年内第10次接到通知准备更多的储备金。这一措施也是为了防止经济增长过快以及防止通货膨胀所作出的努力。

储备金率上涨了1个百分点，这是年内储备金率增长幅度最大的一次。