Global Warming and Home Runs全球变暖与全垒打

Darren Incorvaia

Baseball is a popular sport in the US. Now scientists have identified1 one wayhigh temperatures can reward batters2： It can help convert3 a strong hit into ahome run.

棒球是一项在美国非常受欢迎的运动。现在，科学家们已经确定了高温可以奖励击球手的一种方式：它可以帮助将强击转化为全垒打。

The sport has seen a recent home-run heyday4， and climate change appears tohave played some role.

这项运动最近迎来了全垒打的全盛时期，气候变化似乎起到了一定作用。

The idea that global warming might affect home runs comes fromfundamental5 physics： The ideal gas law says that as temperatures rise， the air’sdensity6 will fall. And that will cut air’s resistance7 on the ball.

全球变暖可能影响本垒打的观点源于基本物理学：理想气体定律。随着温度的升高，空气密度会下降。这将减少空气对球的阻力。

To look for evidence8 of such a climate link to home runs， a research teamtried several ways.

为了寻找这种气候与全垒打之间联系的证据，一个研究团队尝试了几种方法。

Across more than 100，000 major-league games， the researchers found that forevery rise of 1 degree Celsius in a day’s high temperature， the number of home runsin a game rose by nearly 2 percent.

在超过10 万场大联盟比赛中，研究人员发现，当日最高气温每上升1 摄氏度，一场比赛的全垒打数量就会增加近2%。

The researchers ran game -day temperatures through a computer model forclimate. And it found that warming linked to human activities led to an average of58 more home runs each season from 2010 to 2019.

研究人員通过一个计算机气候模型计算了比赛日的温度。结果发现，在2010年到2019 年间，与人类活动有关的变暖导致平均每个赛季多出58 支全垒打。

The team followed up on that analysis9 with a look at more than 220，000individual batted balls.

该团队随后对超过22 万个个人击球进行了分析。

The researchers compared balls hit in almost exactly the same way but on dayswith different temperatures. They also accounted10 for other factors， such as windspeed and humidity11. This analysis showed a similar increase in home runs pereach degree Celsius rise.

研究人员比较了在不同温度的日子里以几乎完全相同的方式击球的情况。他们还考虑了其他因素，如风速和湿度。这项分析显示，每上升一摄氏度，全垒打数就会有类似的增长。

Baseball’s future could be quite different still.

棒球的未来可能会大不相同。

Some fans feel that a growing bounty of home runs has made baseball less funto watch. This is at least part of the reason that Major League Baseball announcedseveral new rule changes for the 2023 season.

一些球迷认为，越来越多的全垒打使棒球的观赏性大打折扣。这至少是美国职业棒球大联盟公布2023 赛季几项新规则变化的部分原因。

There are ways teams can adapt12 to rising temperatures. Many could changeday games to night games， when temperatures tend to be cooler. Or they could adddomes13 to stadiums14. Why？ The research group found no effect of outdoortemperature on home runs in games played under a dome.

球队有办法适应不断上升的温度。许多队伍可能会将日间比赛改为夜间比赛，因为夜晚的温度往往比较低。或者他们可以在体育场上加上圆屋顶。为什么？研究小组发现，在圆屋顶下进行的比赛中，室外温度对全垒打没有影响。

But climate change may soon prompt even moredramatic changes to America’s pastime. Keep inmind， this sport may be affected by snow， storms，wildfires， flooding and heat. Without real change，baseball， and all sports， are going to see majorchanges in ways that we cannot anticipate15.

但气候变化可能很快会促使美国的这项消遣运动发生更戏剧性的变化。请记住，这项运动也许会受到雪、风暴、野火、洪水和高温的影响。如果没有真正的改变，棒球，以及所有运动都将以我们无法预料的方式发生重大变化。

Notes

1. identify 查明；确认；发现

2. batter 击球员

3. convert 转变；转换

4. heyday 全盛期

5. fundamental 根本的；基本的

6. density 密度

7. resistance 阻力

8. evidence 根据；证明

9. analysis 分析

10. account 解释；说明

11. humidity 潮湿；湿度

12. adapt 适应

13. dome 穹顶；圆屋顶

14. stadium 体育场；运动场

15. anticipate 预期；预料