An Assessment of the Effect and Prospect of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Since the Trump administration, the national security strategy of the United States has focused on addressing the major power competition and regarded China as its main strategic competitor, which has been profoundly reflected in its introduction of the Indo-Pacific Strategy.The United States has certain resource advantages in the process of advancing the Indo-Pacific Strategy, and has made some progress of it.Nonetheless, the prospect of the strategy does not entirely depend on the will and action of the United States, but also on the joint action of other elements.

I.Resource Advantages of the US in Promoting the Indo-Pacific Strategy

First, the United States’ presence and interactions in the Indo-Pacific region have lasted for more than two centuries, forming a structure of intertwined interests with countries in the region, which provides an important historical basis for the United States to exert its influence in the region, and a reasonable excuse for the US to deeply participate in regional affairs.

Second, the United States is still superior in economic, military, scientific and technological strength, with a developed higher education system, a social culture that embraces diversity and encourages innovation, and a reasonable demographic structure that provides favorable conditions for maintaining its longterm competitiveness, which constitutes an important material basis for advancing its Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Third, the Indo-Pacific region is a fusion of multiple countries with different cultures, social systems and stages of development.There are various contradictions and conflicts of interests among these countries, especially among regional powers,both in history and in reality.Some countries in the region seek to strengthen security cooperation with the United States, thus providing a space for the United States to intervene in regional security affairs and exert its influence.

Fourth, although the United States has not been founded for a long time, it has gradually developed into a western hemisphere power and a global power, and then the only superpower in the world today, reflecting the US’ superb strategic maneuver ability and rich experience in strategic competition with other major powers.This kind of ability and experience is of great practical significance to its current strategy of maintaining American hegemony.

II.Assessment of the Effect of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

First, the proposition and promotion of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy have not only enhanced the domestic awareness of the importance of the Indo-Pacific region,but also promoted the concern and policy follow-up of other major countries (or groups of countries) on the Indo-Pacific region on the international level, which, to a certain extent, cooperates with or supports the advancement of the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States.

Second, the Trump administration basically built a “whole-of-government, alldimensional and all-field” policy framework for the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, while the Biden administration has fully absorbed the Trump administration’s policy framework of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and further improved it, making it more systematic and balanced.

Third, the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States exerts a direct pressure on China by being geographically close to China and an indirect pressure on China’s development by shaping the regional environment, which puts considerable pressures on China’s sovereignty and security interests and brings more complexity and uncertainty to China’s development environment.

III.Constraints on the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

First, there are major flaws in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy in terms of goal positioning.The US government defines China as the “only” strategic competitor and has established an Indo-Pacific Strategy with the main goal of dealing with China’s challenges.It can be said that the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States is a hegemonic preservation strategy formulated on the premise that China is the main competitor.However, it is precisely this goal positioning that has become the biggest inherent flaw of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy.Firstly, China does not have a hegemonic strategy.The Chinese government has repeatedly stressed that it will neither expand nor seek a sphere of influence, let alone seek hegemony.Secondly,the US policy of containment and repression against China will neither change the historical trend of China’s long-term development, nor stop the historical process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.Lastly, the US Indo-Pacific Strategy does not conform to the trend of the times.In today’s world, democratization,legalization and rationalization of international relations are the common expectation of the international community, and also a destined development trend.The US Indo-Pacific Strategy seeks the dominant position of “one country”, pursues a zero-sum mentality of “you lose, I win”, and adopts power policies such as camp confrontation, “decoupling and chain breaking”, and “long-arm jurisdiction”.This obviously runs counter to the expectations of the international community and the trend of the times.

Second, the constraints of unfavorable political and economic factors in the United States.In recent years, the serious polarization of the two parties in the United States has become a major obstacle to advancing its domestic and foreign policy agendas.Therefore, the increasingly serious political polarization in the United States has hindered the implementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy.At the same time, the Biden administration has significantly increased federal financial support to enhance the manufacturing base, industrial chain resilience and science and technology strength of the United States, making the US finance that is already in a serious deficit even worse, which also limits its financial strength to invest in the Indo-Pacific Strategy and weakens the economic foundation for promoting the strategy.

Third, the constraint from the dilemma of the US alliance strategy.To deepen the alliance and partner relationship and promote responsibility sharing is an important policy measure of the United States to advance its Indo-Pacific Strategy.Given the unbalanced and asymmetric structure of the alliance system, the United States is both the dominant player in the system and the main provider of the public goods needed to keep it running.As US power declines and its ability to provide public goods decreases, members of this alliance may well decide, from a cost/benefit perspective, not to follow the US, or even to leave the alliance system.Therefore, strengthening the alliance system and promoting responsibility sharing is a pair of contradictions that is hard to solve, which will obviously restrict the promotion efficiency and development prospects of the Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Fourth, the constraint from the limited adaptability of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy to the regional strategies pursued by countries in the region.Some countries in the region hope that the United States will deeply intervene in regional affairs through the promotion of the Indo-Pacific Strategy, thus making it an important external force to balance the rise of China.Whereas, the countries in the region do not want the region to become the theater of strategic competition between China and the United States, nor do they want to choose sides to be tied to the US’ chariot to deter China’s development.The mentality of countries in the region towards the US Indo-Pacific Strategy is complex, hence leading to the lack of sufficient external help for the promotion of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Fifth, the constraint from the Chinese factor.On the one hand, the United States regards China as its main competitor, but it does not mean that the United States wants to launch an all-out confrontation against China, let alone a direct military conflict with China.The US Indo-Pacific Strategy needs to be carefully executed so as not to escalate competition with China into a confrontation.On the other hand,China’s clear understanding of the intention of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and the enhancement of its comprehensive national strength and response capability will force the United States to be more cautious in promoting its Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Sixth, the constraint from the changing global security landscape.As a country with global strategic interests, it is difficult for the United States to devote all its energy and resources to a certain region.Although the Indo-Pacific region is the focus of the United States, it is not the only focus.This means that if the United States cannot substantially increase its strategic resources, but transfers strategic resources from other regions to the Indo-Pacific region, then changes in the security situation in other regions will become a major constraint on the implementation of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy.