ABSTRACTS

3 US Minilateralism and Its Remolding of the Global Trade System

by Shen Wei &Hu Yaohui

【Abstract】A series of moves taken by the United States after Donald Trump was elected in 2016 have been described as “withdrawing from international institutions” and “acting against the trend of multilateralism.” After taking office,not only has Biden failed to address the impasse regarding the WTO dispute settlement mechanism,but also actively promoted the so-called alliance of democracy or a values-based alliance.Rather than simply viewed in an “anti-globalization” light,these moves should be seen as an attempt to marginalize the existing multilateral institutions,and prioritize bilateral and regional free trade agreements.The US is in fact resorting to minilateralism to try to remold the global rules and promote pro-US globalization.This stems from its deep dissatisfaction with the present multilateralism and the resultant trade disadvantage the US suffers.Key features of US-centered minilateralism include efficiency,flexibility,the club-like format,and the idea of American first.The main objectives of US minilateralism are to take the lead in international rule-making for new forms of trade and economic affairs,combat “unfair trade practices” against the US,and contain China.Since the Biden administration will not be able to overcome the main drawbacks of multilateralism such as low efficiency of the WTO,using minilateralism to contain China will remain an important policy option.

【Keywords】US minilateralism,FTA,multilateralism,WTO

25 The EU’s Accelerated Indo-Pacific Strategy:New Developments and Impact

by Wang Jinguo &Zhang Lihui

【Abstract】As the global center of gravity shifts to the Indo-Pacific region,the EU is paying increasing attention to the region.To accelerate the implementation of its Indo-Pacific strategy,the EU has adopted a series of new measures,including enhancing economic relations with countries in the Indo-Pacific,strengthening its military presence,upgrading political relations with regional states and organizations,and actively cooperating with the Quad’s moves against China.The EU’s promotion of its Indo-Pacific strategy is mainly to advance its political and economic interests and get involved in Indo-Pacific affairs by leveraging the US push,trying to avoid the strategic dilemma of having to choose sides in great power competition.This will help to not only increase EU influence,but also enhance its chain of production and its expansion into the region’s markets.The EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy will intensify the geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific,and may have a negative impact on the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and security in China’s periphery.But the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy will also face challenges that arise from its internal differences,its limited ability to fulfill its Indo-Pacific ambitions,its wrong policies toward China,and the differences between the EU and the US regarding their Indo-Pacific strategies.

【Keywords】the European Union,Indo-Pacific strategy,China-EU relations,Quadrilateral Security Dialogue(Quad),peripheral security

44 EU and US Cooperation in Digital Governance:Drivers and Prospects

by Qiu Jing

【Abstract】Around the time when the Biden administration was about to take office,US and EU think tanks and other institutions expressed a willingness to strengthen digital cooperation,and even proposed to form a digital alliance against China's approach to technological development and application.This article analyzes the drivers,achievements and prospects of European and American digital governance and cooperation.Convergence in geopolitical and practical interests,and in values are important factors that promote EU and US digital governance and cooperation;these factors also hinder cooperation.Given the similarities and differences between Europe and the US in the governance of data and artificial intelligence,digital infrastructure and related technology policies,platform governance,and policies on digital service tax,there are mechanisms and opportunities for the two cooperate and there are also impediments to further cooperation.Since there are,on balance,more incentive and more room for the two to cooperate,they may join hands in securing the dominant position in digital governance through multiple means and platforms.Therefore,China needs to be well prepared.We may further strengthen cooperation with European countries and expand common interests,or improve China's digital governance by drawing on European and American digital governance practices.We may enhance confidence building and institutional coordination with European countries in digital governance.We may work to produce a level of countervailing effect by further developing our digital technology,expanding domestic and foreign markets,and strengthening cooperation with relevant countries.

【Key Words】digital governance,US-Europe cooperation,digital alliance,data,artificial intelligence

62 Opening-up:The Institutional Path for China's Participation in Global Economic Governance

by Liu Bin&Chen Weiguang

【Abstract】Institutional opening-up is the institutional path for China to integrate into the global economy,and participate in global economic governance and its reform.It is a process that goes through continuous deepening and upgrading.In the early stage of the opening-up,China took the initiative to align with international rules through institutional learning.With the rise of Chinese economic strength,China’s participation in global economic governance has been promoted by its provision of international institutions in certain areas.The international institutional competition between China-initiated international institutions and the original system maintained by the hegemonic power has resulted in institutional pressure on China by the latter.To cope with this situation,China has deepened its economic ties with the rest of the world by implementing a high-level institutional opening-up and taking advantage of its domestic market.With the ongoing institutional competition between China and the US,global economic governance will become more complex.China needs to do more institutional opening-up so that it is able to carry out extensive competition and cooperation in various specific regimes and mechanisms while pushing for institutional reform and compatibility.At the same time,China should stick to its bottom line regarding constitutive principles,maintain an open mind on mutual learning,and enhance its institutional influence by working for a more inclusive,effective,fair and just institutional system,and ensuring the continuity of regional institutional provision.

【Key Words】institutional opening-up,global governance,global economic governance,institutional path

78 US Digital Competition Strategy Against China:Drivers, Means and Impact

by Wang Xiaowen&Ma Mengjuan

【Abstract】The digital competition between China and the United States,which is one of the most prominent features of international politics today,is at the heart of the strategic competition between the two countries.In the 21st century where technological progress has taken the world into the digital age,the rapid progress in China’s digital technology and digital economy has caused the country to be seen as the biggest competitor of the US in the digital domain.This has led the US to introduce a competitive digital strategy against China.The fundamental purpose of the US is to maintain its dominance in global technology,especially in the digital realm.It holds that digital dominance is closely related to its leadership in making and maintaining global rules,and to its values and national security.Thus,losing its digital dominance means that US interests in the above three aspects will be severely damaged.The US has tried to expand its advantage over China in digital technology and digital economy and consolidate its dominance in global digital standards by strengthening its core digital competitiveness,building multilateral digital alliances,and putting restrictions on China’s digital enterprises.However,the US strategy’s impact on China is rather limited because of the serious damage it has caused for US international credibility,its inability to dent China’s digital influence,and the many differences in the multilateral alliances the US builds.China should be patient and perceptive in looking for opportunities and breakthroughs as it deals with the US digital competition strategy,unswervingly promote the “Digital Silk Road” strategy,and contribute Chinese solutions to rule-making in the global digital economy and to the reform of global governance regarding the digital economy.

【Key Words】the United States,digital competition with China,digital economy,Digital Silk Road,global digital governance

98 The Mechanism of Nuclear Deterrence:Capabilities, Signaling and Psychological Game

by Wang Zhengda

【Abstract】While Kissinger proposed an analytical framework for deterrence analysis involving a combination of power,the will to use it,and a comprehensive assessment of these two factors by potential attackers,he did not conduct any in-depth analysis of this framework.This paper seeks to refine Kissinger’s framework by jettisoning the strategic stability centered approach and instead incorporating cognitive and psychological factors.Kissinger’s three elements of deterrence are replaced by three new variables:possession of nuclear weapons,sending out signals of deterrence,and psychological game of nuclear deterrence,thus redefining nuclear deterrence as a psychological game through signaling nuclear capabilities.The factors affecting the size of nuclear forces include national policies,the direct basis for determining the size country's nuclear arsenal,national resource constraints,and the impact of the international environment.The signaling of nuclear deterrence can be approached in four ways:through oral or written communication,in bundled fashion,or through action.With respect to the psychological game of nuclear deterrence,this article analyzes the formation mechanism of the correct cognition of nuclear deterrence,the psychological game between nuclear-weapon states when there is parity as well as disparity,and the influence of missile defense system on the psychological game.It is of both theoretical and practical value for assessing the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and for the maintenance of strategic stability between great powers to analyze the relationship between nuclear capabilities and the will to use nuclear weapons,identify the way nuclear deterrence is signaled,and elucidate the psychological game between both parties in the deterrence process.

【Key Words】effectiveness of nuclear deterrence,factors affecting nuclear capabilities,nuclear deterrence signal,nuclear deterrence game

127 Ethnic Politics and the Selective Application of Non-interference Principle by ASEAN States

by Zha Wen

【Abstract】What explains ASEAN members’ partial and selective application of the noninterference principle? Despite the various answers in the existing literature,few attempts have been made to address this question from the perspective of ethnicity.Drawing on the theories of ethnic conflict escalation and the two-level games,this article contends that ethnic politics at home propels a member state to intervene in ethnic conflicts in other member states.The target state’s reaction is contingent upon the political security of leaders.Specifically,a politically secure leader will be more amenable to the intervening state’s benign involvement,while an insecure leader is more likely to reject any form of intervention.Interaction between the intervening and target states may result in different outcomes that bear on the application of the norm in the region,namely the reaffirmation,degradation,or transcendence of the non-interference principle.This theoretical proposition is tested with three state dyads,including the Thailand-Myanmar,Malaysia-Thailand,and Malaysia-the Philippines dyads.

【Key Words】ethnic politics,political survival,non-interference,ASEAN