Three Cycles in the US-Russian Relations in the Post-Cold War Era

In the post-Cold War era, the US-Russian relations underwent three cycles during the William Clinton, George Walker Bush and Barack Obama administrations, with each cycle beginning high and ending up low, and with each low becoming lower than the previous one, which became a prominent feature of the international situation after the end of the Cold War.

The Clinton administration had three major concerns about Russia: first,communist party and nationalism would come back, and such a possibility recurred again and again; second, Russian reforms could possibly be frustrated, which would determine whether Russia would go back and if the gains of the Cold War were solid, and seriously affect the reforms of other newly independent states; third, preventing Russia from further disintegrating, and getting into chaos or a civil war like Yugoslavia.To avoid these three possibilities, the US should support Yeltsin’s leadership and the reformists.The Clinton administration identified Yeltsin as “the only horse the reform forces have”, on whom the US could bet.During this period, the US-Russian cooperation made an important achievement,namely properly disposing the huge arsenal of nuclear weapons left by the former Soviet Union and upholding the nuclear nonproliferation regime against great turmoil in international situation, thus avoiding a possible nuclear proliferation.

In this period, NATO eastward expansion exerted the greatest impact on the US-Russian relations.The Clinton administration pursued a twotrack policy: on the one hand, supporting Yeltsin’s leadership and Russian reforms, and satisfying Russia’s pursuit of great power status to a certain extent; while on the other hand, expanding NATO eastward through cautious and gradual but resolved measures, which served as a hedge against possible failures of Russian reforms.Russia was united in its opposition against NATO’s eastward expansion, for which the two countries played back and forth.The war in Chechnya was another source of disagreement between the US and Russia.Particularly, after the second war in Chechnya,the US would criticize Russia whenever opportunity arose, thus further straining the relations between the two countries.

Chaos and civil wars in the former Yugoslavia constituted another irritant to the relations between the two countries.The airstrike launched by NATO against Serbia in the spring of 1999 greatly undermined the US-Russian relations.First, the war in Kosovo badly hurt Russia’s pride,and shattered Yeltsin’s long-pursued dream of becoming an equal partner with the US and Europe, hence making Russia feel deeply frustrated and ashamed.Second, this was the first large-scale use of force after NATO’s eastward expansion began, indicating the expansion of NATO was a real threat to Russian security.Third, the idea of “humanitarian intervention”prevailing in the West then made Russia worry that air raid by NATO on Serbia would become a new model of American hegemony.The Kosovo war brought the US-Russian relations to the bottom of their bilateral relations in the wake of the Cold War.

The overwhelming cause that led the George Walker Bush administration to restart the US-Russian relations was the 9/11 terrorist attack and the war on terror waged by the US soon after the attack.Putin keenly seized the window of opportunity to improve relations with America, offering a series of cooperation and assistance to American wars on al-Qaeda and Taliban,and particularly giving a green light to the troops of the US and the global coalition against terror to get into Afghanistan via Central Asia, which rapidly warmed up the US-Russian relations.

During this period, the turning point in the US-Russian relations involved Georgia and Ukraine, particularly the “color revolution” in Ukraine.When the “rose revolution” took place in Georgia, Russia treated it as a “contingency”.But when the “orange revolution” occurred in Ukraine,Russia came to realize that the West led by the US intended to launch color revolutions in a planned and systematic way in the former Soviet republics to bring pro-Western politicians to power, which not only threatened Russia’s traditional interests in CIS, but also Russia’s own political security.Thereafter, Russia abandoned the policy highlighting compromise in exchange for cooperation with the US and stable relations between the two countries, while pursuing a policy of not abandoning cooperation with the US, but resolutely safeguarding Russia’s core interests instead.

The eastward expansion of NATO and the US deployment of antimissile systems in Europe remained two major controversies that plagued Russia’s relations with the United States.After two rounds of eastward expansions respectively in 1999 and 2004, NATO’s membership grew dramatically to 26 from 19.As Russia had remained accommodating, the US reached out for a yard after taking an inch, as it went so far as to try hard to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO despite the opposition from its European allies and the fact that the public support for Ukraine’s NATO membership was not very high in Ukraine.This hurt Russia deeply.

To build a network of anti-missile systems has long been an American pursuit.By 2007, the George W.Bush administration had decided to deploy radars in Czech and interceptors in Poland, while the public opinion in Czech and Poland opposed deploying anti-missile systems on their territories.Thus, the deployment of anti-missile systems had seriously undermined mutual trust between the US and Russia.

A five-day war broke out between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 with Mikhail Saakashvili firing the first shot, while Russia responded with overwhelming military forces.Russia’s fight-back was in fact a powerful reaction to the repeated crackdowns by the US on Russia during the period,thus bringing the US-Russian relations to a new low.

The Obama administration had every reason to resume American relations with Russia.First, the global financial crisis called for a concerted response from the international community.Second, as the war in Afghanistan was still raging on, the US needed Russia’s support and cooperation to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan as Russia and Central Asia remained important for the troops of the US and its allies to get into and out of Afghanistan.Third, as Obama proposed an idea of building “a nuclear-free world”, and sought for further reduction of nuclear weapons and prevention of nuclear proliferation, Russia was a major player in this regard.Fourth, as Obama sought to restart the Middle East peace process,Russia had an influence that could not be underestimated in the Middle East as a member of the “Middle East Quartet”.

Russia also needed to resume its relations with the United States.First, due to the financial crisis, international oil prices were off the cliff, hence badly hurting Russia’s economy.As a result, overcoming the financial crisis with G20 and restoring global economic growth conformed with Russia’s interests.Second, Russia was eager to get out of the shadow of “five-day war” and rebuild its international image.As the two sides had mutual demands, relations between the US and Russia were restarted soon after Obama got into office.For some time, the US made certain policy adjustments, and showed constraint on issues concerning Russia, no longer criticizing Russia’s domestic politics publicly.As for Ukraine’s and Georgia’s NATO membership,Obama remained cautious, while refraining from interfering in Ukraine’s election and Kyrgyzstan’s regime change in 2010.

The resumption of relations was rather fruitful.First, the US and Russia concluded a new START Treaty.Second, the two sides strengthened cooperation on Afghanistan, and established the “northern transport network” to facilitate the movement of US and allied troops and supplies into and out of Afghanistan.Third, they maintained cooperation on the Iranian nuclear issue, which led to the conclusion of the Comprehensive Agreement on a political settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue.Fourth,progress was made in institutionalizing their bilateral relations, as the two countries established the “Bilateral Presidential Commission of the United States and Russia” that had several working groups under it responsible for promoting resolution of various specific issues in bilateral relations.

Nevertheless, the warming up of bilateral relations was short-lived.Some American politicians and media excoriated Putin for changing position with Medvedev; openly interfered in Russia’s internal affairs, and adopted the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, which banned issuance of entry visas to Russian officials involved in the case.Putin severely criticized the Act as “completely political” and “unfriendly”,as well as a slap in the face to Russia.The break point in bilateral relations occurred in August 2013, when Russia approved the temporary asylum application of Edward Snowden, a former contract staff of the US National Intelligence Agency, which so infuriated Obama that he cancelled his appointment to meet Putin during the G20 summit to be held in St.Petersburg in September.

The US deployment of anti-missile systems in Europe continued to perplex the US-Russian relations.After years’ of negotiations and setbacks,there was no consensus reached.In January 2015, NATO decided to set up missile defense command and control centers in the three Baltic states,Romania and Bulgaria, which would be completed by the end of 2016.Meanwhile, Russia confirmed that it had deployed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad.

What brought the post-Cold War US-Russian relations to a nadir was the Ukrainian crisis in 2014.At the end of 2013, tumult broke out again in Ukraine as Ukrainian President Yanukovych decided not to sign the Association Agreement with the EU for the time being.The US and EU supported the mass rallies in Ukraine that ended in a regime change in Ukraine.The unrest in Ukraine boosted the secessionist tendency of the ethnic Russians living in southeastern part of Ukraine, which rekindled the hope of the ethnic Russians, who were the majority of the Crimean population, to return with Crimea to Russia.Putin acted swiftly and resolutely to fulfill their dream of departing Ukraine and joining Russia, for which the US and the EU reacted with tough measures, including imposing economic sanctions on Russia.

Such a development trajectory of the US-Russian relations over some 20 years was not accidental.“Beginning high” meant that both sides had shared interests, such as maintaining strategic stability, fighting against terrorism, and preventing nuclear proliferation.Even at the worst of their relations, the US and Russia maintained cooperation on counter-terrorism, Afghanistan, Iranian nuclear issue and North Korean nuclear issue.“Ending up low” indicated that there were fundamental and insurmountable contradictions and differences between them,including: first, the strategic objectives of the US and Russia ran counter to each other, as the US wanted to maintain unipolarity in the world highlighting its supremacy, while Russia refused to recognize such a world pattern, and sought to restore its major power status.Second,there were structural contradictions between their national interests,but the US blindly pursued its own national interests and absolute security, while disrespecting and even repeatedly violating Russia’s core national interests and major concerns.Third, the US sought to promote democracy and freedom abroad, interfered in Russia’s internal affairs,and even threatened the security of Russia’s political system.Fourth,both the US and Russia had a culture of “exceptionalism” and a strong sense of messianic mission, and Russia saw the former Soviet republics as a space where it had “privileged interests”.In the foreseeable future,there is little room for adjustment in the US-Russian relations, which will remain at a low level.

(The author is an Honorary Academician of CASS, and a senior fellow at the Institute of American Studies, CASS.This article was received on May 20,2020.)