ABSTRACTS

01 On the Objective Conditions for the US to Pursue an Extreme Policy on the South China Sea,by Jiang Chenxian,doctoral student at the School of International Studies,Jinan University; and Ju Hailong,professor,Vice Dean and doctoral supervisor at the School of International Studies,Jinan University.The US unveiled a statement of US Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea on July 13,2020,which denies China’s claims to the South China Sea,runs contrary to the no-position attitude held by successive US administrations on the South China Sea,and marks the maturity of conditions for the US to pursue an extreme South China Sea policy against China.Denying China’s claims to the South China Sea,strengthening the “legitimacy” of the US to interfere in the South China Sea issue and maintaining its capacity to “divide and rule” in the South China Sea constitute the basic motivation of the US to radicalize its policy on the South China Sea.Since the Obama administration,the US has established several multilateral security cooperation mechanisms in and around the South China Sea,made forward military deployment and strengthened its international discourse power on the South China Sea issue,which have laid the ground for the US to step up the radicalization of its South China Sea policy at a particular time.The policy logic of the US that highlights putting extreme pressures on potential challengers to its strategic dominance in the Asia-Pacific,and the facts that American political elites,media and public opinion have taken a negative turn on China have consolidated the policy foundations for the US to seek advantages over China in bilateral relations on the South China Sea issue.The radicalization of the US South China Sea policy is becoming the most important factor that affects future stability and development in and around the South China Sea.

28 American Policy toward Myanmar Based on Geopolitical Considerations and Aiming at Exporting Democracy,by Dr.Zhang Rongmei,lecturer at the School of Foreign Languages,Yunnan University; and Li Chenyang,Executive Vice President and senior research fellow,Yunnan University.Since Myanmar’s independence in 1948,American policy toward the country,whether featuring sanctions,assistance,engagement or negligence,has always been based on considerations of geopolitical realities,and intended for exporting democracy.China,ASEAN,India,Japan and the North Korean nuclear crisis are geopolitical variables that affect American policy toward Myanmar,of which China and ASEAN stand out as the critical factors in American geopolitical considerations of Myanmar.Exporting democracy is not only an important part of the US Myanmar policy,but also constitutes an ideal objective for the US to invest its diplomatic capital to Myanmar.Moreover,geopolitics and exporting democracy is a pair of political relationship parameters that interact with each other closely,whose goals are all involving maintaining American hegemony.A historic analysis of the evolution of the US-Myanmar relationship from the perspective or in the analytical framework of geopolitics and democracy export is of great reference significance for us to understand this relationship in an all-round way,American strategy toward ASEAN and its global strategy.

48 Development of and Restraints on Maritime Security Cooperation between the US and Vietnam,by Dr.Song Qingrun,associate professor at the School of Asian Studies,Beijing Foreign Studies University; and Dr.Yang Yaoyuan,lecturer at the School of Partyto-Party Diplomacy,Beijing International Studies University.Since the beginning of the 21st century,maritime security cooperation between the US and Vietnam has witnessed sustained development and breakthroughs.Their maritime security cooperation is diversified and covers both traditional and non-traditional areas,which operates mainly on bilateral basis with multilateral assistance.Vietnam is the socialist country that has engaged in the most intimate maritime security cooperation with the United States.Maritime security cooperation with Vietnam is an important part for the US to establish a maritime security cooperation network in the Indo-Pacific region,whose development is driven by growing intimacy in their partnership,similar concepts in diplomacy and security,and shared interests.However,maritime security cooperation between the two countries is also restrained by their differences in ideology,partial divergence of interests,and the gap in their military software and hardware.In future,although maritime security cooperation between the US and Vietnam will get more intimate,it is hard to reach the level of maritime security cooperation the US has engaged in with its allies like the Philippines and Thailand in a short run.

70 Strategic Competition and Grand Strategic Game between China and the US,by Ling Shengli,Director at the Center for International Security Studies,China Foreign Affairs University and senior research fellow at the Foreign Exchanges and Foreign Affairs Management Research Base,Beijing Municipality.Since Trump came into office,strategic competition between China and the US has gained momentum.Given the huge size of the two countries and their respective advantages,China and the US will mainly engage in peaceful competition,which means the strategic competition between them will be characterized by normalization and persistence.Under such circumstances,the key to the strategic competition between the two countries will lie in national governance and national strength.Therefore,their respective formulation and implementation of grand strategies toward each other are crucial.Although the US has experienced several grand strategy debates since the end of the Cold War,hegemony strategy has never changed.What have changed are strategic means,aimed at optimizing costs as much as possible.In the case of the China-US strategic competition,the Belt and Road Initiative vs.the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy and the Indo-Pacific strategy is nothing but embodiment of staged and partial game between China and the US,which cannot determine the outcome of the strategic competition between China and United States.Only grand strategic game can determine the strategic trend of the two countries.As a result,how China and the US will incorporate their staged,regional and local strategies into their respective grand strategies is of great importance.

87 Contradictions between the US and Europe on Military Expenditure: Historical Evolution and Development Trend,by Dr.Sun Xun,professor at Information Engineering University; and Han Chunyang,graduate student of international politics at Information Engineering University.Contradictions between the US and Europe over increasing military expenditure have been in existence ever since the founding of NATO,and every American government since then has taken measures to resolve the contradictions.From the historical evolution of the contradictions,one may see three distinctive features,which still exist during the Trump administration.To prompt European allies to raise military expenditure,the Trump administration has taken rather tough measures to put pressures on them,which has led to a drastic escalation of contractions between them on the issue of military expenditure.Although the contradictions on military expenditure between the US and Europe during the Trump administration are quite similar to those during the Reagan administration,they are somewhat different as affected by Trump’s personal factor and linked to other issues between the US and Europe.In future,the US and Europe are likely to remain in fierce contradiction over the issue of military expenditure.While increasing military expenditure may strengthen the defense capacity of NATO,it will also widen the division within NATO and exert certain negative impacts on the US-Europe-Russia and the US-Europe-China relationships.

104 Becoming Effective amid the Pandemic: The Influence of the EVFTA on Vietnam and China,and Some Measures for Response,by Wu Zelin,assistant research fellow at the Institute of International Relations,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.In June 2020,the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) was ratified by the Vietnamese National Assembly,which would go into effect in August.EVFTA that has got effective during the COVID-19 pandemic is of great significance to Vietnam.First of all,EVFTA will be a bright spot in Vietnamese economic recovery,as it will create conditions for Vietnam to restore its economic growth.Secondly,EVFTA,coupled with other multiple factors,will benefit Vietnam in a new wave of foreign investment,and provide Vietnam with a new opportunity to transit to high-quality foreign investment cooperation.Lastly,EVFTA will drive further domestic reforms in Vietnam.Nevertheless,the high standard set by EVFTA will pose certain challenges to Vietnam,such as increasing pressures on domestic reforms,difficulties to meet the rules of origin,and growing competitive pressures on domestic enterprises among others.EVFTA will also exert impacts on China,including competition with Vietnam in attracting foreign investment,and increasing difficulties and pressures on China in pursuing its FTA strategy and negotiating for FTA with its partners.For this,China may increase its investment to Vietnam in textile and agricultural processing industries,strive for a China-EU investment agreement by the end of the year,and strengthen research on the South-North type FTA.

119 Economic and Financial Stability and Regulation Strategies under External Shocks,by Dr.Ji Feifeng,senior manager at the Research Institute of China Development Bank,and member and senior economist at China Society of Economic Reform; and Yu Jundang,doctoral student at Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences.According to the control theory,rational macro-monetary control can correct the transfer function of the system,improve stability of the system,and enable the economy to operate stably around the maximum potential growth rate.To avoid economic and financial instability,efforts have to be made to optimize the economic structure on the one hand,and price should be taken as the main feedback signal in macroscopic adjustment and control,and the accuracy of price signals should be ensured on the other.According to the anti-interference theory of the control theory,stimulus measures may be taken to deal with short-term external shocks.Whereas,in dealing with long-term impacts,a balance of the cost of debt with economic growth should be kept.Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic,short-term financial stimulus could be used in China.But in the face of the unabated global epidemic and major changes in international political and economic landscape,macroscopic adjustment and control should pay attention to the feedback of price signals in order to make timely adjustment,and particularly prevent enterprises from adding leverage to real estate speculation again.Meanwhile,efforts should be made to ensure the stable and efficient operation of China’s economic and financial system under the new situation by further opening up,developing digital economy,promoting rural revitalization and other programs,and adjusting and optimizing the system structure.